Friday, April 5, 2013

Economic growth squeezes to six year low, pegged to grow at 3.56 per cent

Delayed budget and poor agriculture performance coupled with slowdown in construction have squeezed the economic growth to six year low and pegged to grow at 3.56 per cent at basic price for the current fiscal year 2012-13 against the last fiscal year's growth of 4.48 per cent, according to primary estimation.
Apart from poor agriculture production, delayed budget that has curtailed public spending in key areas like health, education and social sector, failed to create demand, reducing the growth rate, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics' (CBS) projection.
The plunge in growth rate of agriculture — the key contributor to the gross domestic production (GDP) — has pulled the overall economic growth rate down to the six year low, the data revealed, adding that the agriculture is expected to grow by a mere 1.21 per cent in the current fiscal year against last fiscal year's 4.94 per cent growth.
The low production of key crops like paddy, maize and wheat due to delayed monsoon and lack of fertiliser on time have hit the agriculture output, according to the director general of CBS Uttam Narayan Malla.
However, the non-agriculture sector is expected to record a marginal growth compared to last fiscal year. "In the current fiscal year, the non-agriculture sector is expected to grow by 4.98 per cent compared to 4.15 per cent in the last fiscal year," he added.
Agriculture and non-agriculture growth both is not satisfactory, said deputy director general of the CBS Suman Aryal. "However, consumption-led imports have pushed the wholesale and retail trade up which is expected to grow by 9.54 per cent, the highest among all the sectors of the GDP," he said, adding that the manufacturing sector has, however, performed poorly as always.
"Manufacturing sector is expected to grow by a meager 1.85 per cent in the current fiscal year compared to 3.63 per cent a fiscal year ago," Aryal added.
Likewise, among the components of the GDP, eight components have performed poorly, while remaining seven including mining and quarrying, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, transport, storage and communications, financial intermediation and other community, social and personal services activities are expected to post growth in the current fiscal year compared to last fiscal year.
Similarly, the consumption has eaten up the national savings. "The national savings is expected to be at 9.34 per cent of the total GDP, which is not encouraging," Aryal said, adding that the low savings will create resource gap. "Likewise, the consumption is projected at 90.66 per cent at Rs 1,542.33 billion of the total GDP."
The CBS has also estimated that the country's GDP in monetary terms stands at Rs 1,701.19 billion and the economy could witness Rs 642.91 billion capital formations, whereas a total of Rs 484.05 billion is projected as trade deficit of goods and services in the current fiscal year 2012-13.

Per Capita income up
KATHMANDU: A Nepali earns Rs 62,510 an average per year, according to the CBS estimation for the current fiscal year. "The per capita GDP has increased to Rs 62,510 at current price in the current fiscal year 2012-13," it said, adding that it is a growth of 9.28 per cent from last fiscal year's Rs 57,202. Per capita GDP is an average income per person per year within the internal sources. However, including the external resources like remittance, the income increases to Rs 80,685, which is an increment by 9.78 per cent from last fiscal year's per capita GNDI of Rs 73,497. Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) is wealth generated by nationals plus net external income sources from out of the country.

GDP Growth
2006-07 — 2.75 per cent
2007-08 — 5.80 per cent
2008-09 — 3.90 per cent
2009-10 — 4.26 per cent
2010-11 — 3.85 per cent
2011-12 — 4.48 per cent
2012-13 — 3.56 per cent
(Source: Central Bureau of Statistics)

Structure of GDP
Service sector — 50.33 per cent
Primary sector — 35.32 per cent
Secondary sector — 14.35 per cent
(Source: Central Bureau of Statistics)

1. Mining and quarrying,
2. Construction,
3. Wholesale and retail trade,
4. Hotels and restaurants,
5. Transport, storage and communications,
6. Financial intermediation,
7. Other community, social and personal services activities,
(Compared to last fiscal year 2011-12)

Non- performers
1. Agriculture and Forestry,
2. Fishing,
3. Manufacturing,
4. Electricity, gas and water,
5. Real estate, renting and business activities,
6. Public administration and defence,
7. Education,
8. Health and social work,
(Compared to last fiscal year 2011-12)


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