China will continue to be the top inbound destination in the Asia Pacific, peaking at 147.4 million visitors in 2017, according to a report.
"Visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific region will continue to grow with an average annual growth rate of 4.1 per cent over the period 2013-2017 and reach 581 million by 2017," said Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017 released jointly today by the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) and The Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Hotel and Tourism Management (PolyU).
Northeast Asia will maintain a dominant position in the inbound market of Asia Pacific, and its market share will reach 53.52 per cent by 2017, according to the new forecasts on the complete visitor economy that will make it easier for tourism organisations to anticipate demand trends and manage supply.
"Hong Kong SAR will surpass the US to be the second largest inbound destination in Asia Pacific in 2015, and visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific from China will exceed 100 million by 2015," it said, adding that Cambodia, the Maldives, Chinese Taipei, Bhutan and Mongolia are the top five fastest growing destinations in terms of visitor arrivals over the period 2013-2017.
"The scope and quality of the forecasts will add value to our many different members across 17 time zones and many different functional groups," said PATA chief executive Martin J Craigs.
The forecasts aim to help destinations set strategy for the coming years by supporting the complete visitor economy in both long-term decision and policy making by predicting arrivals, tourism receipts and departures according to country/region of origins for 41 destinations.
Published annually with a quarterly breakdown, the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017 will include information about visitor arrivals to select PATA member economies from key source markets, visitor expenditures in PATA member economies, and visitor departures of member economies. The annual edition of the forecasts will also feature reports analysing the forecasts and their implications, taking into account particular trends for certain regions.
Though it is clear that demand for inbound and outbound travel in Asia Pacific is growing, it is the details shown by forecasts of travel demand that will guide the visitor economy in the measurement of tourist arrivals and expenditure.The forecasts have been created using a combination of statistical and judgmental methodologies, with a view to generating more accurate and reliable forecasts. The outputs of this forecasting system will provide useful information on the future trends of the complete visitor economy (measured by tourist arrivals, departures and tourist expenditures).