IMF completes the fourth review of ECF, releases Rs 5.51 billion

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday completed the fourth review under the four-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Nepal, allowing the authorities to withdraw the equivalent of SDR 31.4 million (about $41.3 million), which is approximately Rs 5.51 billion.

This brings total disbursements under the ECF for budget support thus far to SDR 188.3 million (about $247.7 million).

The ECF arrangement for Nepal was approved by the Executive Board on January 12, 2022 for SDR 282.42 million (180 per cent of quota or about $371.6 million).

Nepal has made good progress with implementation of the programme, which has helped mitigate the impact of the pandemic and global shocks on economic activity, protect vulnerable groups, and preserve macroeconomic and financial stability, a press note issued by the IMF reads.

The programme is also helping to catalyse additional financing from Nepal’s development partners.

The economy continues to face challenges as growth, projected around 3 per cent in fiscal year 2023-24, remains below potential in the context of subdued domestic demand and post-pandemic balance sheet repairs, it reads, adding that economic activity is expected to pick up with growth reaching 4.9 per cent in the fiscal year 2024-25, supported by stronger domestic demand. "The cautiously accommodative monetary policy stance, planned increase in capital expenditure in the fiscal year 2024-25 budget, additional hydropower generation, and a continued increase in tourist arrivals are expected to boost domestic demand and growth."

Inflation is expected to remain within the Nepal Rastra Bank’s (NRB) target ceiling of 5.5 per cent, it adds.

However, the IMF warns of domestic risks dominating the outlook.

"Failure to raise the execution rate of capital projects would deprive the economy of much-needed stimulus and weigh on growth," it warns, adding that fragile political stability could disrupt policy continuity and reform implementation. "Intensification of financial sector vulnerabilities such as a further rise in NPLs or more failures of cooperative lenders could endanger banking system soundness."

Externally, high commodity prices could slow the recovery in energy-intensive sectors. Nepal remains vulnerable to natural disasters.

“Nepal has made important strides on its economic reform agenda," said deputy managing director and acting chair Bo Li, following the Executive Board discussion.

"Decisive actions in monetary policy, bank regulation and rolling off Covid support policies played a major role in overcoming urgent balance of payments pressure in fiscal year 2021-22," Li said, adding that reserves continue to rise without the need to use distortive import restrictions. "Fiscal discipline was maintained in fiscal year 2022-23 and so far in fiscal year 2023-24, despite revenue shortfalls. "Bank supervision and regulation have improved with the rolling out of new supervisory information systems, the Working Capital Loan Guidelines and Asset Classification Regulations."

Nepal’s medium-term outlook remains favourable as strategic investments in infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, are expected to support potential growth.

“With growth below potential, executing the planned increase in capital spending, as envisaged in the fiscal year 2024-25 budget, while maintaining fiscal discipline through domestic revenue mobilisation and rationalisation of current spending remains critical to boost growth and preserve medium-term fiscal sustainability," Li said, adding that strengthening public investment management will support the needed boost to capital spending. "Enhancing fiscal transparency will help contain fiscal risks and further strengthen medium-term fiscal sustainability."

“As monetary policy transmission is still weak in a context of balance sheet repair, a cautious and data dependent monetary policy remains appropriate to preserve price and external stability," he adds.

Saying that continuing to strengthen Nepal’s financial system remains a top priority, he said, financial policy should remain vigilant and focused on building regulatory frameworks that promote sustainable credit growth while proactively addressing emerging vulnerabilities in the savings and credit cooperatives sector. "Maintaining recent reforms regarding lending practices and asset classification is important as preparations for the loan portfolio review of the ten largest banks continue."

The IMF also welcomed Nepal’s commitment to strengthen its AML/CFT framework. "Amendments to a set of fifteen laws, including on money laundering, have been recently enacted—and secondary legislation is under preparation—to bring Nepal’s AML/CFT legal framework in line with international standards, Li said, "It remains critical to ensure the effectiveness of the new legal framework."

The IMF has also suggested reforms to implement the 2021 IMF Safeguards Assessment recommendations regarding the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) Act and NRB audit are a priority.

“Continued progress on the structural front remains needed to foster investment and more inclusive growth," Li said, adding that these include improving the business climate, building human capital, and continuing to improve social safety nets, in particular aiming for full execution of the child grant budget, followed by an expansion of the programme to all districts in Nepal.

Global commodity prices level off, hurting prospects for lower inflation

Global commodity prices are leveling off after a steep descent that played a decisive role in whittling down overall inflation last year, which could make it harder for central banks to cut interest rates quickly, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

The report also finds that a major outbreak of conflict in the Middle East could halt the inflationary decline that has occurred over the past two years.

Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, global commodity prices plummeted by nearly by 40 per cent. This helped to drive most of the roughly 2-percentage-point reduction in global inflation between 2022 and 2023. Since mid-2023, however, the World Bank’s index of commodity prices has remained essentially unchanged. Assuming no further flare-up in geopolitical tensions, the Bank’s forecasts call for a decline of 3 per cent in global commodity prices in 2024 and 4 per cent in 2025. That pace will do little to subdue inflation that remains above central bank targets in most countries. It will keep commodity prices about 38 per cent higher than they were on average in the five years before the Covid-19 pandemic.

"Global inflation remains undefeated," the World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice president Indermit Gill, said, adding, "A key force for disinflation—falling commodity prices—has essentially hit a wall. That means interest rates could remain higher than currently expected this year and next. The world is at a vulnerable moment: a major energy shock could undermine much of the progress in reducing inflation over the past two years.”

Persistently high geopolitical tensions over the past two years have propped up the price of oil and many other critical commodities even as global growth has slowed. The price of Brent crude oil, for example, surged to $91 per barrel earlier this month—nearly $34 per barrel above the 2015-2019 average. The Bank’s forecasts indicate that Brent prices will average $84 per barrel in 2024 before declining to an average of $79 in 2025, assuming no conflict-related supply disruptions. If the conflict in the Middle East were to escalate further, however, oil-supply disruptions could push up global inflation. A moderate conflict-related supply disruption could raise the average Brent price this year to $92 per barrel. A more severe disruption could see oil prices surpass $100 per barrel, raising global inflation in 2024 by nearly one percentage point.

“A striking divergence is emerging between global growth and commodity prices: despite relatively weaker global growth, commodity prices will most likely remain higher in 2024-25 than in the half-decade before the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “One critical factor behind this divergence relates to heightened geopolitical tensions that are keeping upward pressure on prices of major commodities and stoking risks of sharp price movements. Central banks must remain alert about the inflationary implications of commodity-price spikes amid elevated geopolitical tensions.”

The average price of gold—a popular choice for investors seeking 'safe haven'—is expected to hit a record in 2024 before moderating slightly in 2025. Gold holds a special status among assets, often rising in price during periods of geopolitical and policy uncertainty, including conflicts. Strong demand from several developing-country central banks, along with heightened geopolitical challenges, is expected to bolster gold prices throughout 2024.

An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could also drive up prices of natural gas, fertilizers, and food, the report notes. The region is a crucial gas supplier—20 per cent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. If the LNG supply were interrupted, fertilizer prices would also rise substantially, likely driving up food prices. The Bank’s baseline forecast, however, is for overall food prices to decline somewhat—by 6 per cent in 2024 and 4 per cent in 2025. Fertilizer prices are expected to fall by 22 per cent in 2024 and 6 per cent in 2025.

Accelerating investment in green technologies has bolstered prices of key metals that are critical for the global clean-energy transition. Prices of copper—necessary for electricity-grid infrastructure and electric vehicles—surged to a two-year high this month. They are expected to rise by 5 per cent in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025. Prices of aluminum are forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2024 and 4 per cent in 2025, bolstered in particular by the production of electric vehicles, solar panels, and other renewable-power infrastructure.

The report also contains a special focus section evaluating the performance of five well-known approaches used to forecast the prices of three key commodities—crude oil, copper, and aluminum. It finds that each of them suffers from certain deficiencies, but each also offers important advantages. As a result, the analysis suggests, forecasts are most accurate when they reflect a variety of analytical approaches—and a healthy dose of judgment.

प्रधानमन्त्रीको सम्बोधनमा गलत तथ्य र तथ्यांकमा टेकेर उपलब्धिको चर्चा

 प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहालले सत्ताका दिव्य ३६५ दिनका आफ्ना उपलब्धि सुनाउँदै गर्दा तथ्य तथा तथ्यांकमा खेलबाड गरेका छन् । प्रधानमन्त्रीको सचिवालयको कमजोरी हो वा निर्देशन नै अतिसयोक्तिपूर्ण प्रचार हो, थाहा छैन । तर, प्रधानमन्त्रीले गलत तथ्यांक प्रस्तुत गर्दा उनीप्रतिको र उनको सरकारप्रतिको विश्वासमा झन् कमी आउने स्पष्ट छ ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीले प्रस्तुत गरेका तथ्यंकको फ्याक्टचेक गर्दा दाहालका धरै दाबी मनगडन्ते र भ्रामक पाइयो ।

साधारण सम्बोधनमा त गृहकार्य नगर्ने सरकारले नेपाली नागरिकका चुलिँदा महत्वाकांक्षा र आशा पूरा गर्ला भन्ने कुनै विश्वास नहुनु जायज हो । तथ्यांक तोडमरोड गरेर आफ्नो सफलता देखाउन बाध्य प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले नेपाललाई निकास दिन नसक्ने पनि एकपटक फेरि स्पष्ट भएको छ ।

कुनै पनि मुलुकमा पटक पटक सत्तामा पुग्ने सौभाग्य थोरै भाग्यमानीले मात्र पाएका छन् । प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको पनि यो तेस्रो पटकको सत्तारोहणको वार्षिकी हो ।

विश्व बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार विश्वको एकतिहाइ गरिब दक्षिण एसियामा छन् । विश्वको एक तिहाइ गरिब बस्ने दक्षिण एसियामा नै यस्ता पटके प्रधानमन्त्री भएको धेरै पाइन्छ । गरिबी र पटके प्रधानमन्त्रीको सम्बन्धको यो जालोबाट मुक्त हुन नेपालमा पनि शीर्षस्थ नेतालाई ससम्मान बिदा गरेर युवाको हातमा सत्ता पुग्नु पर्छ भन्ने मान्यता बढ्नुमा पनि सरकारका कार्यशैली तथा मिथ्यांक जस्ता कारण छन् ।

तर नेपालमा तिनै ब्यक्ति पटक पटक सत्तामा पुग्छन् र नयाँ काम गर्ने वाचा गर्छन् । सरकार आफ्ना गलत कार्यशैलीका कारण बुढो बाँदरले नयाँ ट्रिक सिक्देन भन्ने उखान जस्तै नयाँ नेतृत्व नआइकन नेपालीमा अब कुनै आशाको संचार होला भन्ने आशा छैन भन्ने भाष्य स्थापित गर्दैछ ।

मंगलबार प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले आफ्नो सत्तारोहणको वर्षदिन पूरा भएको अवसरमा गरेका सार्वजनिक सम्बोधनमा पनि सरकारको सफलता देखाउने भावनात्मक उत्तेजनामा आएर दाहालले भ्रामक तथ्यांक प्रस्तुत गरेका छन् ।

प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको सम्बोधनका केहि मिथ्यांक

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी १: एक वर्षअघि जम्मा तीन महिनाको आयात धान्‍नसक्‍ने सामर्थ्यसहित दिवालिया बन्ने त्रासमा बाँचेको देशसँग अहिले विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति इतिहासकै उच्च छ। यही असारदेखिको चार महिनाकै अवधिमा यस्तो सञ्चिति १५७ अर्ब रूपैयाँले बढेको छ।

तथ्य: नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा कुल विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ खर्ब ९२ अर्ब ५६ करोड रुपैयाँ थियो । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिबाट १० महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ८.७ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने अवस्था थियो ।

तर, यस वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १६ खर्ब ९६ अर्ब रुपैयाँ पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चार महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा हाल सञ्चित विदेशी मुद्रा १३.६ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ११.३ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने देखिन्छ ।

यथार्थमा प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी भ्रामक ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी २: विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति इतिहासकै उच्च ।

तथ्य: राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७७ पुसमा विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति १२ अर्ब ७७ करोड ५८ लाख अमेरिकी डलर पुगेको थियो । तर, २०८० कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ अर्ब ७५ करोड अमेरिकी डलर छ ।

राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत वर्ष (२०७९) वैशाखमा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिती ९ अर्ब २७ करोड अमेरिकी डलरमा झरेको थियो । जसले ६.१८ महिनाको वस्तु र सेवाको आयात धान्न पुग्थ्यो ।

यथार्थमा विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिती इतिहासकै उच्च भएको भन्ने प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी पनि भ्रामक ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी ३: सधैँ घाटामा रहने सार्वजनिक संस्थान नाफामा जान थालेका छन् । नेपाल वायुसेवा निगमको तिर्नुपर्ने दायित्व कम हुँदै गएको छ। नेपाल आयल निगम र नेपाल विद्युत् प्राधिकरण नाफामा गएका छन् ।

तथ्य: सार्वजनिक संस्थानको वार्षिक स्थिति समीक्षा २०८० का अनुसार सरकारको लगानी रहेका विभिन्न सार्वजनिक संस्थानहरुको वित्तीय अवस्थामा अझै सुधार हुन सकेको छैन । आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-०७९ मा संचालनमा रहेका ४२ वटा संस्थानमध्ये २५ नाफा र १७ वटा संस्थानहरु घाटामा रहेको छन् । त्यसैगरी दुई संस्थाको कारोबार शून्य रहेको छ। उक्त वर्ष जनकपुर चुरोट कारखाना बन्द र विद्युत उत्पादन कम्पनी, राष्ट्रिय प्रसारण ग्रीड कम्पनीको व्यवसाय शुरुवाती अवस्थामा नै रहेको छ ।

नेपाल वायुसेवा निगमलाई ग्राउन्ड हयान्डलिंग गर्न नदिने हो भने घाटामा जान्छ । निगमको प्राथमिक काम भनेको जहाज उडाउनु हो तर निगमले जहाज मात्र उडाउने र ग्राउन्ड हयान्डलिंग गर्न नपाउने हो भने तत्काल आगामी महिनादेखि तलब पनि खान सक्ने सामथ्र्य हुने छैन र जनताले तिरको करबाट सरकारले तलब खुवाउनु पर्दछ । हालेका दिनमा निगमका कर्मचारीको आन्दोलनको चुरो कुरो पनि त्यहि हो ।

पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ नेपालमा उत्पादन तथा प्रसोधन समेत नहुने भएका कारण नेपाल आयल निगमको नाफा वा घाटामा नेपाल सरकारको प्रत्यक्ष कुनै हात हुँदैन । अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय बजारमा भाउ बढे नेपालमा पनि बढ्ने अनि घटे घट्ने भनेर नै नेपालमा स्वचालित मूल्य प्रणाली लागु गरेको निगमको नाफामा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले जश लिन खोज्नु राजनीति मात्रै हो ।

सार्वजनिक संस्थानको वार्षिक स्थिति समीक्षा–२०८० अनुसार आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-७९मा नेपाल विद्युत् प्राधिकरणले आव २०७८-७९ मा १३ अर्ब ३७ करोड खुद नाफा आर्जन गरेको थियो । सरकारकै उक्त प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार सरकारले लगानी गरेका सार्वजनिक संस्थानहरू सरकारलाई बोझ बन्दै गएका छन्। करिब सवा ६ खर्ब लगानी रहेका सार्वजनिक संस्थाले एक वर्षको अवधिमा १ अर्ब ५४ करोड २० लाख रूपैयाँ मात्र खुद नाफा आर्जन गरेका छन्। यो नाफा लगानीका आधारमा निकै कम हो।

साथै, पछिल्लो चार वर्षदेखि संस्थानहरूको नाफा निरन्तर घट्दै गएको छ। आर्थिक वर्ष २०७७-७८ मा २६ अर्ब ३६ करोड ९२ लाख खुद नाफा आर्जन गरेका संस्थानले आव २०७८-७९ मा १ अर्ब ५४ करोड २० लाख रूपैयाँ मात्र खुद नाफा गरेका छन्।

यसरी हेर्दा एक वर्षमै नाफा २४ अर्ब ८२ करोड ७२ लाख रूपैयाँ घटेको छ। अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्ष भन्दा गत आर्थिक वर्षमा खुद नाफा ९४.१५ प्रतिशतले घटेको छ। आव २०७८-७९ मा सञ्चित नाफा ५२ अर्ब ४० करोड ७८ लाख रूपैयाँ छ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी भ्रामक ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी ३: ‘लगभग सिंगो देशमा विद्युत पहुँच पुगेको’ छ ।

तथ्य: राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगको दिगो विकास लक्ष्यको संशोधित सूचक प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार सन् २०२२ मा ८५.७ प्रतिशतको घरमा मात्रै विद्युत् पहुँच पुगेको छ । दिगो विकास लक्ष्यमा सन् २०३० मा मात्रै ९९ प्रतिशतको घरमा विद्युत् पहुँच पुग्ने लक्ष्य समेटिएको छ । दाहाल सरकारले नै जेठ १५ गते ल्याएको आव २०८०-८१को बजेट बक्तव्यमा पनि असार मसान्तसम्ममा ९५ प्रतिशत नागरिकको घरमा राष्ट्रिय विद्युत प्रणालीबाट विद्युतमा पहुँच पुर्याउने अनुमान रहेको थियो ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी भ्रामक ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी ४: यस वर्ष उपभोक्ता मूल्य वृद्धिदर गत वर्षभन्दा २.७ प्रतिशत बिन्दुले कम भएको छ। … मौद्रिक नीतिमा गरिएका सुधारका कारण बैंकको आधार ब्याजदर एकल अङ्कमा पुगेको छ भने ऋणको ब्याजदर पनि घटेको छ । यसबाट उत्पादन लागत घटेर उपभोक्ता मूल्यमा समेत सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्ने निश्चित छ ।

तथ्य: बजार भाउको वृद्धिदरमात्र घटेको हो, बजार भाउ सस्तो भएको होइन । त्यसमाथि आयात पनि घटेको, आन्तरिक उत्वादन पनि नबढेको परिबेशमा कसरी के कारणले असोजमा ७.५० रहेको वार्षिक बिन्दुगत आधारमा उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकाङ्कमा आधारित मुद्रास्फीति कात्तिकमा ५.३८ प्रतिशतमा झर्यो । साथै, बजारमा उपभोक्ताले किन अनुभुत गर्न पाएनन् ? यसमा सरकार, अर्थ मन्त्रालय र राष्ट्र बैंक जवाफदेही हुन पर्दछ ।

यसका साथै, संसारभर केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुले मूल्यवृद्धि नियन्त्रण गर्ने औजारका रुपमा ब्याजदरलाई प्रयोग गर्ने गर्छन् । अर्थशास्त्रमा ब्याजदर बढाएपछि ऋणको लागत महँगो हुन्छ, त्यसले अर्थतन्त्रमा माग कम हुन्छ र मूल्यवृद्धि नियन्त्रण हुन्छ भन्ने मान्यता छ। नेपालमा पनि गत आर्थिक वर्षमा ब्यामजदर बढाउँदा राष्ट्र बैंकले यहि तर्क दिएको थियो । तर, नेपालमा ब्याजदर बढ्दा पनि तात्विकरुपमा मूल्यवृद्धि घट्न सकेन भने झन् ब्याजदर घटाउँदा कसरी मूल्यवृद्धि दर कम भएको हो, प्रधानमन्त्रीको अर्थशास्त्रले नै बताउला ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी शंकास्पद ।

यस बाहेक पनि धेरै तथ्यगत तथा तथ्यांकीय त्रुटीको जगमा गरिएको आफ्नो एक वर्षे कार्यकालको उपलब्धिको वर्णनमा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले पुन समीक्षा नै गर्नु पर्ने देखिन्छ ।

प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहालको सत्तारोहणको एक वर्षः नेपालीले के पाए ?

 २०७९ साल पुस ११ गते प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल ‘प्रचण्ड’ले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाएर शपथ ग्रहण गरे । अर्थतन्त्र चाहिँ ‘दौरा न सौरा खल्ती’को अवस्थामा थियो ।

दाहाल सिंहदरबार छिर्दै गर्दा मुलुकको अर्थतन्त्रमा समस्या थिए । अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकहरु आशालाग्दा थिएनन् । अर्थतन्त्रमा शिथिलताको कारण बजारमा उत्साह थिएन । कारोबारको चक्र बिथोलिएका कारण बजारमा उकुसमुकुस थियो । कोभिड-१९ महामारीका कारण सुस्ताएको अर्थतन्त्रमा रुस-युक्रेन युद्धले थप जटिलता ल्याएको थियो, सार्वजनिक वित्त अनि आन्तरिक तथा बाह्य क्षेत्र दुबै चापमा थिए । आम्दानी बढेको थिएन तर महँगीले आकाश छोएको थियो ।

सरकारको दाबी छ : पछिल्लो एक वर्षमा अर्थतन्त्रका केही सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ ।

तर, २०७२ सालपछि लगातार बजेटको आकार बढ्ने अनि खर्च गर्न नसक्ने दीर्घरोगी संयन्त्रमा सुधार नआएका कारण प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले राजनीतिक जस लिने गरी सुधार भने गरेको देखिन्न । किनकि, धेरै सुधार सरकारको नीतिगत हस्तक्षेपका कारण नभई समयक्रममा आफैँ आएका हुन्, जुन टिकाउ हुन्छ भन्ने पनि छैन ।

सरकारको योगदानबिना सूचकमा आंशिक सुधार, बजारमा बढ्दो निराशा

अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको तुलनामा केही वित्तीय र मौद्रिक क्षेत्र सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ । सरकार गठन भएलगत्तै २०७९ पुस ११ गते बसेको मन्त्रिपरिषद् बैठकले अर्थतन्त्र सुधारका लागि विभिन्न नीतिगत, प्रक्रियागत र संस्थागत सुधारका काम अघि बढाउने गरी निर्णय गरेको थियो ।

सरकारले गर्ने यस्ता कर्मकाण्डी निर्णयले नेपालमा कुनै सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्न छोडेको धेरै भइसक्यो, बरु उल्टो नकारात्मक असर परेका प्रशस्त उदाहरण छन् ।

तर, यसपटक अलि फरक भयो, सरकारले सुधारका प्रयासका कारण केही आर्थिक सूचक सकारात्मक भएको दाबी गर्दैगर्दा अर्थतन्त्रको बाह्य क्षेत्रमा साँच्चिकै केही सुधार देखिएको छ ।

हुन त बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधारको दिगोपनामा प्रशस्त आशंका छ तर पनि रेमिट्यान्स लगातार बढेको तथा आयात घटेका कारण विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिमा सुधार आएको तथ्यांकले देखाउँछ । साथै, पर्यटक आगमनमा पनि उल्लेख्य बढोत्तरी देखिएका कारण केही टिकाउ हुन्छ कि भन्ने आशा गर्न सकिन्छ ।

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा कुल विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ खर्ब ९२ अर्ब ५६ करोड रुपैयाँ थियो । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिबाट १० महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ८.७ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने अवस्था थियो ।

तर, यस वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १६ खर्ब ९६ अर्ब रुपैयाँ पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चार महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा हाल सञ्चित विदेशी मुद्रा १३.६ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ११.३ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने देखिन्छ ।

हाल बढेको विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति नेपाली उत्पादन निर्यातबाट आएको आम्दानीका कारण भएको भए अर्थतन्त्र बलियो हुँदैछ भन्न सकिन्थ्यो तर त्यसो होइन । नेपाली उत्पादनको निर्यात घट्दो छ ।

आइतबार भन्सार विभागद्वारा प्रकाशित तथ्यांकअनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको मंसिरसम्ममा नेपालले जम्मा ६३ अर्ब २० करोड ७४ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको छ । तर, गत आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा भने नेपालले ६७ अर्ब ३० करोड ४५ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको थियो ।

मुलुकमा व्यावसायिक वातावरण बनाउन सरकार असफल भएक कारण उत्पादन नभएको मात्र होइन, रोजगारी पनि सिर्जना भएन । अनि उत्पादनशील युवा बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गए । बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवाले रेमिट्यान्स पठाएका कारण रेमिट्यान्स आयमा वृद्धि भयो । त्यसैले रेमिट्यान्स बढेको र त्यसैका कारण बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधार सरकारको नीतिले होइन, कुनीतिले हो ।

सरकारले रेमिट्यान्स आयको वृद्धिमा र त्यसैका कारण तत्काल अर्थतन्त्रमा परेका सकारात्मक प्रभावलाई आफ्नो ठूलो उपलब्धि मान्नु केटाकेटी पारा हो । अझ तथ्यांकमा नै हेर्ने हो भने त अहिले आइरहेको रेमिट्यान्सभन्दा धेरै आउनुपर्ने हो, यसमा पनि सरकार चुकेको छ । सरकारकै अव्यवस्थाका कारण हुन्डी बढेको छ । देशबाट पुँजी पलायन भइरहेको छ ।

राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा ४ खर्ब ७७ अर्ब ९६ करोड रुपैयाँ रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको छ । जुन प्रतिमहिना औसतमा सवा खर्ब रुपैयाँको हाराहारी हो । आफ्ना मानव संशाधन बेचेर विश्वमा कुनै पनि मुलुक धनी भएको छैन, नेपाल पनि हुँदैन । आफ्ना युवालाई रोजगारी दिन नसक्ने राज्यले राष्ट्रियता पनि जोगाउन सक्दैन ।

तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री भएको एक वर्षमा पनि दाहालले स्वदेशमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न केही प्रयास गरेको देखिन्न । दाहालमात्र नभएर, नेपाली राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका शीर्षस्थ नेतामा नेपालमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न कुनै हुटहुटी छैन । जसका कारण युवामा चरम निराशा छ र उनीहरु धमाधम विदेश जाँदै छन् । खराब नेतृत्वका कारण संघीय गणतन्त्र बदनाम भइरहेको छ ।

एक वर्ष पुगेको अवसरमा प्रधानमन्त्रीले सिंहदरबारभित्रै एउटा सर्भे पो गर्ने हो कि, कति जना वहालवाला तथा पूर्व उच्च कर्मचारीका सन्तान नेपालमा छन् ? कसैको व्यक्तिगत स्वतन्त्रतामा प्रतिबन्ध त लाउन सकिन्न तर यसबाट प्रधानमन्त्रीलाई कस्ता नीतिनिर्माताबाट सरकार चलाइरहेको छु भन्ने थाहा लाग्न सक्छ ।

नेपालमा रेमिट्यान्स पठाउने युवाको वर्ग नै फरक छ । जुन वर्गको उत्थानका लागि प्रचण्डले नेपाललाई एक दशक लामो द्वन्द्वमा होमे, त्यही वर्ग नेपालमा गरिखान नपाएर वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका कारण प्रतिमहिना सवा खर्ब रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको हो । अनि अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा सुधार आएको हो, सरकारको नीतिका कारणले होइन, हुँदै होइन । किनकि सरकारको नीतिका कारण कुन वर्गको उत्थान भइरहेको छ, जगजाहेर नै छ ।

हाल चालु खाता अनि शोधनान्तर स्थिति पनि बचतमा देखिएका छन् । राष्ट्र बैंककै तथ्यांकअनुसार कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा चालु खाता ९६ अर्ब ३८ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ । जुन चालु खाता २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा ३७ अर्ब ९१ करोड रुपैयाँले घाटामा थियो । साथै, चालु आवको पहिलो चौमासिकसम्ममा शोधनान्तर स्थिति १ खर्ब ४७ अर्ब ११ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ ।

यी तथ्यांक देखाएर जस लिनुभन्दा सरकारले वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवालाई धन्यवाद भन्नु पर्ने हुन्छ ।

किनकि वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा जाने ती ८० प्रतिशत युवा ऋण काडेर विदेशिने गरेको प्रवासी नेपाल समन्वय समिति र सेन्टर फर द स्टडी अफ लेबर एन्ड मोबिलिटी, सोसल साइन्सले गरेको ‘रिटर्न, विक रिइन्टिग्रेसन र रिमाइग्रेसन’ शीर्षकमा कामदारहरूको अवस्थाबारे गरेको अध्ययन प्रतिवेदनले जनाउँछ ।

‘ऋण लिएकामध्ये लगभग ५० प्रतिशतले ऋण तिर्न बाँकी रहेको देखिन्छ,’ प्रतिवेदन भन्छ । अझ वैदेशिक रोजगारीबाट फर्केर आएका आप्रवासी श्रमिकहरु बचत नभएका कारण थप आर्थिक जोखिममा रहेको पनि अध्ययनले देखाएको छ ।

सरकारले किन र कसरी जस लिन मिल्छ, जब उनीहरुमध्ये ८८ प्रतिशतले विदेशबाट कमाएको पैसाबाटै ऋण फिर्ता गर्ने गरेको पनि प्रतिवेदनमा उल्लेख छ । रेमिट्यान्स पठाएर देशको अर्थतन्त्र चलाइदिने उनीहरुको लागि यो सरकार होइन । जुन दिन रोजगारदाता देशमा समस्या आउँछ, त्यसै दिन उनीहरु फर्कन बाध्य हुन्छन् ।

सरकारले केही गर्न सक्दैन, प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले पनि केही गर्न सक्दैनन् । रुस पुगेर मृत्युवरण गर्न बाध्य नेपाली युवाका लागि यो सरकार होइन, यो देश पनि आफ्नो होइन । एक वर्षमात्र होइन, अर्को १० वर्ष शासन गरे पनि सरकार नेपाली युवाका लागि होइन भन्ने भाष्य सरकारले नै बनाएको हो ।

तेस्रोपल्ट प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दै गर्दा दाहाललाई चेत आएको हुनुपर्थ्यो कसको लागि प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दैछु भनेर तर यस्तो देखिएन ।

एक वर्षमा पर्यटक आगमनमा राम्रो सुधार देखिएको छ । सन् २०२३ को ११ महिनामा करिब ९ लाख ५४ हजार पर्यटक नेपाल आएका छन् । पर्यटक आय तथा पर्यटकको बसाइ लम्बाउन नसके पनि पछिल्लो वर्षमा बढेको पर्यटक आगमनले केही रोजगारी भने सिर्जना भएको छ । त्यो पनि कुन दिन फेरि घट्न बेर छैन । किनकि नेपालमा आउने पर्यटक नेपालको योजना तथा लगानीका कारण आएका होइनन्, उनीहरुकै योजनामा आएका हुन् ।

गएको एक वर्षमा तथ्यांकमा गज्जब सुधार भएको तर बजारमा अनुभव नगरिएको एउटा क्षेत्र भने महँगी हो ।

राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत वर्षको तुलनामा मूल्यवृद्धि घटेको छ । २०७९ मंसिर समान्तसम्ममा उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांकमा आधारित मुद्रास्फीति ७.३८ प्रतिशत थियो । तर चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा मुद्रास्फीति ५.३८ प्रतिशत छ ।

तर, बजार भाउ भने बढेको बढ्यै, बढेको बढ्यै छ ।

यसको अर्थ बजार भाउको वृद्धिदरमात्र घटेको हो, बजार भाउ सस्तो भएको होइन । प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालमात्र नभएर अधिकांश राजनीतिक दलका नेता तथा उच्चपदस्थ कर्मचारी आफैं बजारमा किनमेल गर्न गएको कतै देखिन्न, सुनिन्न, त्यसैले थाहा हुने कुरा पनि भएन । नागरिकका पीडा सुनिदिनेभन्दा पनि कतिपटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुने भन्ने कीर्तिमान राख्ने लहड भएपछि नारायणहिटी र सिंहदरबारमा कुनै फरक नहुनु स्वाभाविक हो ।

तर, फरक छः तेस्रो पल्ट शपथ ग्रहण गर्दा प्रचण्डले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाए । एक वर्षदेखि उनी सार्वजनिक समारोहमा दौरा सुरुवालमै देखिन्छन् ।

आजकल प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल अर्को एक धक्का दिने मुडमा छन् ।

शुक्रबार र आइतबार एउटा धक्का त दिइसके । प्रधानमन्त्रीले बिहीबार बक्यौता रकम नतिर्ने उद्योगको लाइन काट्न निर्देशन दिएलगत्तै शुक्रबार नेपाल विद्युत प्राधिकरणले जगदम्बा स्टिल्स, रिलायन्स स्पिनिङ मिल्स, घोराही सिमेन्ट र अर्घाखाँची सिमेन्टको बिजुली काट्यो । आइतबार थप ५ उद्योगको लाइन काटेको छ ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीले एक वर्षमा कर्मचारीतन्त्रलाई सयौं निर्देशन दिए होलान् । सयकडा एक यस्ता निर्देशन कार्यान्वयन पनि भए होलान्। तर, उद्योग नै धराशयी बनाउने निर्देशन एकैदिनमा कार्यान्वयनमा आयो, राज्य पूरै ब्ल्याकमेलरका रुपमा प्रस्तुत भयो।

स्वदेशी लगानीकर्तालाई ब्ल्याकमेल गरेको देखेपछि विदेशी लगानीकर्ता पक्कै नेपाल आउन चाहने छैनन् । तर, सरकार आउँदो वैशाख ९ र १० गते काठमाडौँमा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय लगानी सम्मेलनको तयारी गर्दैछ ।

नेपालमा लगानीको वातावरण कठिन हुँदैछ भनेर मलेसियन लगानीकर्ता आजियटा फर्कन चाहेको भर्खरै हो । नेपाल सरकारको दोहनकारी नीतिले लगानीकर्तामा चरम निराशा छ । बितेको एक वर्षमा लगानीको वातावरण बिथोल्न प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको सरकार र सरकारी संयन्त्रले भयंकर मेहनत गरेको छ ।

नेपालका उद्योग बन्द गरेर बेरोजगार बढाउने अनि खाडि पठाएर रेमिटयान्स भित्र्याउने । युवाले पठाएको रेमिटयान्सले सरकारले तलब खाने र राजनीतिक दलका कार्यकर्ता पाल्ने । योभन्दा खास्सा आर्थिक क्रान्ती के हुन्छ ?

यो नै दाहाल सरकारको प्रमुख उपलब्धि हो ।

एक दशकको द्वन्द्वले नेपाल आर्थिक विकासमा ५० वर्ष पछाडि पर्‍यो, अब एक वर्षको उपलब्धिले झन् राणाकालमा नै पुर्‍याउने हो । यस्तै विषम परिस्थितिमा नै १०४ वर्षे एकतन्त्रीय जहानियाँ राणाकाल सुरु भएको हुनपर्छ ।

सायद प्रधानमन्त्रीले भनेको अन्तिम धक्का यही होला, देश बनाउने ।

राज्य नै दोहनकारी भएपछि कसरी मुलुकमा औद्योगिक वातावरण बन्छ, उद्यमशीलताको प्रवर्धन हुन्छ अनि रोजगारी सिर्जना हुन्छ, यति बुझ्न जंगल जानु पर्दैन । यो कमन सेन्स हो ।

तर, अंग्रेजीमा भनिन्छ नि कमन सेन्स इज भेरी अनकमन । नेपालमा राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका नेतृत्वमा कमन सेन्स भएको भए नेपाली युवा रुसको फौजमा वा खाडी अनि मलेसिया जानु पर्दैनथ्यो । पूर्णरुपमा रेमिट्यान्समा आधारित सुधारिएको सूचक देखाएर फुइँ लाउने सरकारसँग नेपाल विकासको कुनै दृष्टिकोण, कुनै योजना छैन भन्ने एक वर्षले सिद्ध गरिसकेको छ ।

बितेका एक वर्षमा कतिवटा उद्योग खुले, कति रोजगारी सिर्जना भयो, नेपालीको आय कति बढ्यो, कति नेपालीले छाना र नाना पाए, त्यसको तथ्यांक हेरौं न ।

अनि जाजरकोटमा चिसोले कति जनाको ज्यान गयो, त्यो पनि एउटा सूचक होला नि होइन र ? २१औं शताब्दीमा जाडो र चिसोले नागरिक मर्ने देशको सूचकमा सुधारको के अर्थ ?

बढ्दो ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण

पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा सबैभन्दा बढी चर्चामा आएको विषय हो, सार्वजनिक ऋण । आजको मितिमा सरकारले ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण नै लिनुपर्ने बाध्यता सिर्जना भएको छ । हुन त यसमा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको धेरै दोष छैन । तर, उनले पनि बितेका एक वर्षमा सार्वजनिक ऋण थपे । किनकि राजश्वले सरकारी खर्च धान्न छोडिसक्यो । सरकारको एक वर्षको उपलब्धिमा यसको पनि त मूल्यांकन होला नी ।

सार्वजनिक ऋण व्यवस्थापन कार्यालयका अनुसार गत असार मसान्तसम्ममा २२ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३५ करोड २४ लाख रुपैयाँ बराबर रहेको सार्वजनिक ऋण कात्तिक मसान्तसम्म पुग्दा २३ खर्ब ५७ अर्ब ६ करोड रुपैयाँ नाघेको छ । त्यसैले सरकारले पुँजीगत खर्चभन्दा ऋण तिर्न बढी खर्च गर्ने बाध्यता आइसकेको छ ।

यतिमात्रै होइन, विगत एक वर्षको उपलब्धि ।

महालेखा नियन्त्रक कार्यालयको तथ्यांकअनुसार २०८० मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारको आम्दानीभन्दा खर्च बढी छ ।

मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारले ४ खर्ब ५२ अर्ब ९९ करोड ५७ लाख रुपैयाँ बजेट खर्च गरेको छ तर आम्दानी भने खर्चभन्दा ६९ अर्ब ७ करोड १५ लाख रुपैयाँ कम छ । सरकारले चालु आवका लागि १७ खर्ब ५१ अर्ब ३१ करोड २१ लाख रुपैयाँको बजेट ल्याएको थियो भने कुल १४ खर्ब ७२ अर्ब ४८ करोड ४७ लाख रुपैयाँबराबर राजस्व उठाउने लक्ष्य थियो ।

महाँकालदेखि मानसरोवरसम्मः आर्थिक कूटनीतिमाथि धार्मिक कूटनीति हावी

कुनै समय चीनका नेता माओत्सेतुंगको नाम तथा दर्शनबाट प्रभावित तथा प्रगतिशील राजनीतिको प्रचण्डपथ नै कोरेको दाबी गर्ने नेकपा माओवादी केन्द्रका अध्यक्ष प्रचण्डले प्रधानमन्त्री भएपछि पहिलो विदेश भ्रमण भारतबाटै गर्ने रहर गत वर्ष पूरा गरे।धेरैले उनलाई दक्षिणतिर ढल्किएको पनि भने। तर, उत्तरबाट दक्षिणतिरको यो ३६० डिग्रीको फन्को रातारात होइन, थिएन ।

नेपालको सत्ताको सिँढी नै दक्षिणतिर छ त उनको के दोष !

उनको तेस्रो पटकको सत्तारोहणबाट नेपाली नागरिकले के पाए, त्यो भिन्नै कुरा भो । तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुँदा पनि उनीसँग देश र जनतालाई दिनेभन्दा लिने नै कुरा बढी होलान् । यो भाष्य गलत होस् भन्ने कामना त गर्न सकिन्छ तर यथार्थ यथार्थ नै हुन्छ।

नेपालको आर्थिक विकासको एउटा प्रमुख साझेदार हो भारत । नेपालको वैदेशिक व्यापारमा भारतको हिस्सा ठूलोमात्र होइन, अर्थतन्त्रलाई तत्काल नकारात्मक वा सकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्न सक्ने छिमेकी पनि हो ।

त्यसैले हरेकपल्ट नेपालका प्रधानमन्त्रीको भारत भ्रमणबाट नेपालीले ठूलै उपलब्धि हासिल गर्ने आशा राख्छन् । यसपटक आफुलाई सुध्रिसकेको दाबी गरेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालसँग पनि नेपालीको ठूलै आशा थियो । तर, दिल्लीको औपचारिक मेजमानी खाएपछि २०८० जेठ १९ गते उज्जैन पुगेर उनी महाँकालेश्वरमा गेरुवा खास्टोमा आरती गर्दै गरेका देखिए ।

नेपाल र भारतबीचको द्विदेशीय व्यापार अभिवृद्धि गर्नेलगायतका थुप्रै विषयभन्दा उनका लागि उज्जैनको महाँकालेश्वरमा आरती महत्वपूर्ण भयो । दुई छिमेकी देशबीच आर्थिक कूटनीतिभन्दा धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा रुची लिनु प्रचण्डको बाध्यता हुनसक्छ।

नेपाल र भारतलाई आज आर्थिक विकासमा जोड्न सकेमात्र दुबै मुलुकको फाइदा छ । तर, त्यसो गर्दा दाहाललाई के फाइदा ?

भारतको औपचारिक भ्रमणबाट व्यापार, पारवहन, लगानी प्रवर्धन, ऊर्जा व्यापार तथा क्रस बोर्डर ट्रान्समिसन लाइन, सिँचाइ, बाढी तथा डुबान नियन्त्रण, कृषिलगायतका क्षेत्रमा केही सहमति भएका थिए । तर, उनको गेरुवा खास्टोले ती केही भएका उपलब्धि पनि छोपिए ।

यसरी माओको दर्शन र प्रगतिशील राजनीति एकाएक धार्मिक राजनीतिमा क्रान्तिकारी छलाङ मार्न पुग्यो ।

किनकि उनको धार्मिक कूटनीति दक्षिणको छिमेकीमा मात्र सीमित रहेन । अमेरिकाबाट सोझै २०८० असोज ६ गते चीन उत्रिएका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल भोलिपल्ट औपचारिक कार्यक्रम सकेपछि नेपाल फर्कन सक्थे तर एक साता घुमफिर गरेर मानसरोवर यात्रा गर्न भ्याए ।

अस्थिरताका पर्याय मानिएका प्रचण्ड छिमेकी मुलुकसँगको आर्थिक कूटनीति बलियो बनाउन छाडेर धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा ओर्लिए । जसकारण प्रधानमन्त्रीको भ्रमणमा नेपालले भारतबाट तथा चीनबाट लिन सक्ने जति आर्थिक फाइदा लिन सकेन।

त्यसैले बितेको एक वर्षमा नेपालीले देखेको ‘परिवर्तन’ भनेको झल्याकझुलुक गेरुवा खास्टोबाहेक प्रधानमन्त्रीको दौरा सुरुवाल मात्रै हो ।

Conflict in Middle East could bring ‘Dual Shock’ to global commodity markets

Although the global economy is in a much better position than it was in the 1970s to cope with a major oil-price shock, an escalation of the latest conflict in the Middle East—which comes on top of disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine—could push global commodity markets into uncharted waters, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

The report provides a preliminary assessment of the potential near-term implications of the conflict for commodity markets. It finds that the effects should be limited, if the conflict doesn’t widen. Under the World Bank’s baseline forecast, oil prices are expected to average $90-a- barrel in the current quarter before declining to an average of $81-a-barrel next year as global economic growth slows. Overall commodity prices are projected to fall 4.1% next year. Prices of agricultural commodities are expected to decline next year as supplies rise. Prices of base metals are also projected to drop by 5 per cent in 2024. Commodity prices are expected to stabilise in 2025.

The conflict’s effects on global commodity markets have been limited so far. Overall oil prices have risen about 6 per cent since the start of the conflict. Prices of agricultural commodities, most metals, and other commodities have barely budged, the report reads.

The outlook for commodity prices would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate. The report outlines what might happen under three risk scenarios based on historical experience since the 1970s. The effects would depend on the degree of disruption to oil supplies. In a 'small disruption' scenario, the global oil supply would be reduced by 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day—roughly equivalent to the reduction seen during the Libyan civil war in 2011. Under this scenario, the oil price would initially increase between 3 per cent and 13 per cent relative to the average for the current quarter—-to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel.

In a 'medium disruption' scenario—roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003—the global oil supply would be curtailed by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day. That would drive oil prices up by 21 per cent to 35 per cent initially—to between $109 and $121 a barrel. In a 'large disruption' scenario—comparable to the Arab oil embargo in 1973— the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day. That would drive prices up by 56 per cent to 75 per cent initially—to between $140 and $157 a barrel.

“The latest conflict in the Middle East comes on the heels of the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s—Russia’s war with Ukraine,” said the World Bank’s chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics Indermit Gill. "That had disruptive effects on the global economy that persist to this day. Policymakers will need to be vigilant. If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades—not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East.”

“Higher oil prices, if sustained, inevitably mean higher food prices,” said the World Bank’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group Ayhan Kose. “If a severe oil-price shock materializes, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countries. At the end of 2022, more than 700 million people—nearly a tenth of the global population—were undernourished. An escalation of the latest conflict would intensify food insecurity, not only within the region but also across the world.”

The fact that the conflict has so far had only modest impacts on commodity prices may reflect the global economy’s improved ability to absorb oil price shocks. Since the energy crisis of the 1970s, the report reads, countries across the world have bolstered their defenses against such shocks. They have reduced their dependence on oil—the amount of oil needed to generate $1 of GDP has fallen by more than half since 1970. They have a more diversified base of oil exporters and expanded energy resources, including renewable sources. Some countries have established strategic petroleum reserves, set up arrangements for the coordination of supply, and developed futures markets to mitigate the impact of oil shortages on prices. These improvements suggest that an escalation of the conflict might have more moderate effects than would have been the case in the past.

Policymakers nevertheless need to remain alert, the report says. Some commodities—gold in particular—are flashing a warning about the outlook. Gold prices have risen about 8% since the onset of the conflict. Gold prices have a unique relationship to geopolitical concerns: they rise in periods of conflict and uncertainty often signaling an erosion of investor confidence.

If the conflict escalates, policymakers in developing countries will need to take steps to manage a potential increase in headline inflation. Given the risk of greater food insecurity, governments should avoid trade restrictions such as export bans on food and fertilizer. Such measures often intensify price volatility and heighten food insecurity. They should also refrain from introducing price controls and price subsidies in response to higher food and oil prices. A better option is to improve social safety nets, diversify food sources, and increase efficiency in food production and trade. In the longer term, all countries can bolster their energy security by accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources—which will mitigate the effects of oil-price shocks.

Increased cost-of-living crisis undermines progress on poverty alleviation in Asia and Pacific

 The increased cost-of-living crisis sparked by surging inflation last year, combined with the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, is continuing to push people in Asia and the Pacific into extreme poverty, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

An estimated 155.2 million people in developing Asia and the Pacific, or 3.9 per cent of the region’s population, lived in extreme poverty as of last year, according to Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2023, released today. The number is 67.8 million greater than it would have been without the pandemic and the increased cost of living crisis, according to the report. Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $2.15-a-day, based on 2017 prices and adjusted for purchasing power and inflation.

“Asia and the Pacific is steadily recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, but the increased cost-of-living crisis is undermining progress toward eliminating poverty,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. “By strengthening social safety nets for the poor and fostering investment and innovation that creates opportunities for growth and employment, governments in the region can get back on track.”

Poor people have been hurt the most by the increased cost-of-living crisis, as they are less able to pay higher prices for necessities such as food and fuel. Increases in the price of basic goods and services leave many poor people unable to save money, pay for health care, or invest in education and other opportunities that can improve their condition in the longer term. Women may have also been disproportionately affected, as they tend to earn less than men while also being subject to unpaid work.

Not only do the poor earn less income—they also pay a premium to access many essential goods and services while being forced to make choices that can be more expensive in the long term, the report reads. For instance, low-income households often have to buy commodities in smaller quantities, which may be more expensive than buying in bulk. They may also be forced to live in informal settlements where they are exposed to greater health hazards, increasing their health care costs, and they may have longer and less convenient commutes.

ADB estimated in 2021 that the pandemic had pushed an additional 75 million to 80 million people into extreme poverty as of the previous year, compared with pre-pandemic projections. Extreme poverty was then defined as living on less than $1.90-a-day based on 2011 prices.

Economies in developing Asia and the Pacific are projected to continue making progress against poverty. Nonetheless, by 2030, an estimated 30.3 per cent of the region’s population—or about 1.26 billion people—will still be considered economically vulnerable, defined as living on $3.65 to $6.85-a-day, based on 2017 prices.

To help address the increased cost-of-living crisis, governments in Asia and the Pacific can strengthen social protection systems, increase their support for agricultural development, improve people’s access to financial services, prioritise infrastructure investments, and promote technological innovation and human capital development, according to the report.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.

Global economy will slow down in 2022

The growth in global real GDP will drop from 5.7 per cent in 2021 to 3.3 per cent in 2022, according to a report.

The report released by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released today also shows that trade in both goods and services will slow down. “Growth in merchandise exports is expected to decline by half, from the strong 26.5 per cent increase recorded in 2021 to 13.8 per cent this year. “For services exports, which include transport and travel, the slowdown will be less pronounced – from 17.2 per cent to 14.6 per cent,” the Handbook of Statistics 2022 – the global reference for trade and development trends published each year – reads. 

Despite the strong growth in trade in services in 2021, the value of exports ($6.1 trillion) remained below their pre-Covid-19 levels ($6.3 trillion in 2019), it reads, adding that prices soared, especially for fuels, driving inflation. “The prices of primary commodities, such as food and energy, soared by 55 per cent in 2021.” Fuels accounted for 22 percentage points of the growth.

The upward trend continued this year, with prices hitting in August 2022 their highest levels in nearly three decades. Inflation also soared, especially in Africa, where consumer prices jumped by 22.7 per cent in 2021. Meanwhile, households in Latin America and the Caribbean saw prices rise by 15 per cent.

Likewise, trade surplus of developing economies also increased. “The trade surplus of developing economies grew, especially in Africa,” it reads, adding that the increase was mirrored by a widening trade deficit for developed economies. “Developing countries traded more with developed nations ($8 trillion) than among themselves ($5.4 trillion). Trade between developed nations was slightly higher at $8.5 trillion.”

The report also states that export diversification remains a challenge for developing countries. But the products that countries depended on varied across regions. Around three quarters of Africa’s exports consisted of primary goods (77 per cent), while developing economies in Asia and Oceania exported manufactured goods in nearly equal proportions (76 per cent).

Least developed countries fall short of growth targets, the report reads further. “The world's 46 least developed countries (LDCs) reported real GDP growth of only 2 per cent in 2021, less than half the global average of 5.7 per cent.”

GDP growth in LDCs fell far short of the 7 per cent annual per-capita growth target enshrined in the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Likewise, population hits 8 billion while dependency rates increase. “The global population hit 8 billion in November 2022, even though growth has been declining since the late 1980s. In 2021, it stood at 0.87 per cent,” it adds. “Global dependency rates also increased among the population. On average, there are 54 dependent children or older people for every 100 workers. Africa has the highest dependency ratio at 72 per cent.”

The handbook provides in one report the key data and indicators on how the global economy has evolved – for regions, countries and sectors. It also provides projections based on real-time estimates – called nowcasts – to help governments anticipate ongoing shifts and improve policymaking.

“Timely and quality data are critical now more than ever as concurrent global crises test our resilience,” UNCTAD secretary-general Rebeca Grynspan said. “These statistics will help countries take evidence-based policy measures to cushion the blow of the global crisis on the most vulnerable.”

Inflation will surpass target in next fiscal year too

Central Bank governor Maha Prasad Adhikari today said that inflation will be higher than the target in the next fiscal year too.

Speaking at a discussion in the Finance Committee, under the House of Representatives, on the next fiscal year’s Monetary Policy, he said, that the central bank has set a target of taming the inflation under 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal year but the inflation is likely to go beyond the target due to the sharp rise in inflation in the international market. The war between Russia and Ukraine has pushed the global inflation rate up.

“Nepal should also pay attention to the monetary policies of most of the world's central banks to check the inflation,” he said, adding that it is difficult to tame inflation in the current fiscal year. Though, the central bank has claimed to crack whip on inflation, the inflation nears the double digit in the current fiscal year end also due to supply disruption created by the Russia and Ukraine in recent months.

The central bank governor also informed that Nepal should pay attention to the policy of raising the interest rate and scrap the concessions given during the Covid-19 pandemic to control inflation.

कसको बजेट ?

गणतन्त्रका पाँच वर्षअघि र गणतन्त्रपछिको पाँच वर्षमा अर्थतन्त्रमा खासै परिवर्तन आएको छैन । नागरिकले आर्थिक विकासको अनुभूति गर्न तथा सुशासन एवं आफैंले छानेका प्रतिनिधिमार्फत शासन गर्दा मुलुकको आर्थिक विकास हुन्छ भन्ने आशा गरेका थिए । तर, गणतन्त्रका अघिल्ला पाँच वर्षमा औसत ४.५४ प्रतिशत आर्थिक वृद्धि भएकोमा गणतन्त्रपछिका पाँच वर्षमा पनि औसत ४.४ प्रतिशत नै आर्थिक वृद्धि भएको छ ।

संयोगले गणतन्त्र दिवसकै दिन हरेक वर्ष १५ जेठमा बजेट आउँछ । गणतन्त्रका पाँच वर्षमा नेपाली नागरिकले ६ वटा बजेट देखे । भलै कार्यान्वयनमा भने पाँचवटा मात्रै आएको छ । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको बजेट तत्कालीन अर्थमन्त्री विष्णु पौडेलले तथा वर्तमान अर्थमन्त्री जनार्दन शर्माले ल्याएका कारण ५ वटा बजेट भए पनि गणतन्त्रपछिका बजेट कार्यान्वयनको अवस्था हेर्दा गणतन्त्र अघिभन्दा तात्विक भिन्नता छैन । नागरिकमा परम्परागत राजनीतिक दलप्रति चुलिँदो अविश्वासको प्रमुख कारण पनि यही नै हो । नागरिकले महसुस हुने गरी परिवर्तनको अनुभव गर्न पाएका छैनन् । गणतन्त्रको लाभ पाउनबाट चुकेकै कारण पनि नागरिकमा निराशा छ, जुन स्थानीय तहको निर्वाचनको परिणामले पनि देखाएको छ । आइतबार संसद्को संयुक्त बैठकमा अर्थमन्त्री जनार्दन शर्माले दोस्रो बजेट ल्याए । तर, कसको लागि बजेट ल्याए त ?

पछिल्लो समय मुद्रास्फीति बढेका कारण मध्य आय भएका नागरिकका लागि बजेटमा विशेष केही नभएको वरिष्ठ अर्थविद् प्रा.डा. विश्वम्भर प्याकु¥याल बताउँछन् । सरकारले विश्वमा विविध कारणले बढेको महँगीलाई सरकारी कर्मचारीको तलब बढाएर सम्हाल्ने प्रयास त गरेको छ तर, यसले सामान्य नागरिकलाई असर गर्ने उनको तर्क छ । भारतमा पनि मूल्यवृद्धि भइरहेको तथा रुस तथा युक्रेन युद्धका कारण विश्व आपूर्ति शृंखलामा नकारात्मक असर पनि परेका कारण मूल्यवृद्धि ६ प्रतिशतभित्रै राख्न सरकारलाई कठिन भएको उनको विचार छ ।

सरकारी कर्मचारीको तलब १५ प्रतिशतले बढेका कारण मूल्यवृद्धिलाई त्यसले ढाडस हुने अर्थविद् नरबहादुर थापा बताउँछन् । साथै सरकारले व्यक्ति वा परिवारको आधारभूत जीवन निर्वाह लागतलाई दृष्टिगत गर्दै प्राकृतिक व्यक्ति तथा दम्पत्तिलाई आयकर ऐन, २०५८ ले प्रदान गरेका आयकर छुटको सीमालाई वृद्धि गरी प्राकृतिक व्यक्तिको हकमा ५ लाख र दम्पत्तिको हकमा ६ लाख पु¥याएका कारण पनि मध्यम वर्गीयको जीवन सहज हुने उनको अनुमान छ ।

तर, महँगीलाई तह लगाउन आपूर्ति व्यवस्था सहज बनाउने र निगरानी गर्नुपर्नेमा थापा पनि सहमत छन् । नेपालमा प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति ६० हजारभन्दा कम आय भएका नेपाली निम्न आय वर्गमा पर्छन् । जसको जनसंख्या कूल जनसंख्याको १८ प्रतिशत अर्थात् ५३ लाख छ ।

यस्तै, प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति ६० हजारभन्दा बढी र ३ लाख २ हजारसम्म आय भएका नेपालीलाई मध्यमवर्गीय नेपाली मानिएको छ । जसमा ४२ प्रतिशत जनसंख्या पर्दछन् । अर्थात् नेपालमा मध्यमवर्गीयको जनसंख्या १ करोड २२ लाख छ । त्यसपछि ३ लाख ३ हजारभन्दा माथि प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति आय हुने नेपालीलाई सरकारले उच्च आय वर्गमा वर्गीकरण गरेको छ । जसमा ४० प्रतिशत अर्थात् १ करोड १७ लाख जनसंख्या पर्छन् । 

महँगीले निश्चित आय भएका मध्यम वर्गीय १ करोड २२ लाख नेपाली मर्माहत हुँदा बजेटले झन् पीडित बनाएको छ । साथै, स्रोत संकुचन भएका बेला आएको बजेटले सामाजिक सुरक्षामा प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्दै सरकारको दायित्व भने बढाएको छ । राजनीतिक दल तथा सरकारले कसले देशमा बढी दिगो र छिटो विकास गर्ने, गरिबी घटाउने भन्ने प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्नुपर्नेमा कसले कम उमेरमा वृद्धभत्ता दिने भन्ने प्रतिस्पर्धा हँुदै गएको छ । त्यसैले स्रोतको दबाबका बीच सरकारले एकातिर आयकरको सीमा पनि बढाएको छ भने अर्कोतिर वृद्ध भत्ता पाउने उमेरलाई ७० वर्षबाट घटाएर ६८ वर्ष बनाएको छ ।  

वित्तीय समानीकरण अनुदान

प्रदेश : ६१ अर्ब ४३ करोड

स्थानीय तह : १ खर्ब २३ करोड

सशर्त अनुदान

प्रदेश : ५७ अर्ब १ ७ करोड

स्थानीय तह : १ खर्ब ८३ करोड

समपूरक अनुदान

प्रदेश : ६ अर्ब ३० करोड

स्थानीय तह : ७ अर्ब २७ करोड

विशेष अनुदान

प्रदेश : ४ अर्ब ५६ करोड

स्थानीय तह : ९ अर्ब १४

राजस्व बाँडफाँट

१६३ अर्ब ३ करोड

अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा सुधार आएन

 मूल्यवृद्धि ७ प्रतिशतभन्दा माथि

रेमिट्यान्स आय घट्दो

शोधनान्तर घाटा बढ्ने क्रम जारी

विदेशी मुद्रा संचिती घट्ने क्रम जारी

चालु वर्षको पाँच महिनामा पनि अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा कुनै सुधार आएको छैन भने झन् त्यसमाथि यसअघि नियान्त्रणभित्रै रहेको बजार भाउ पनि बढ्ने क्रम तीव्र बनेको छ ।

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार मूल्य वृद्धिदर ७ प्रतिशतभन्दा माथि रहेको छ । राष्ट्र बैंकको मासिक प्रतिवेदनअनुसार वार्षिक बिन्दुगत उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फीति ७.११ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । जुन अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको मंसिरको तुलनामा ४.१८ प्रतिशतले बढी हो । अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको पाँचौं महिनामा मूल्य वृद्धिदर २.९३ प्रतिशत रहेको थियो ।

सरकारले बजेटमा तथा राष्ट्र बैंकले चालु आर्थिक वर्षको मौद्रिक नीतिमा ६.५ प्रतिशतभित्रै राख्ने प्रक्षेपण गरेको मूल्यवृद्धि पाँचौं महिनामा नै उकालो लागेको छ । चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा सरकारलाई मूल्यवृद्धि काबुमा राख्न समस्या पर्ने केही दिन अगाडि राष्ट्र बैंकका गभर्नर महाप्रसाद अधिकारीले संसदीय समितिमा बताएका थिए ।

राष्ट्र बैंकले बिहीबार जारी गरेको तथ्यांकअनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पाँचौं महिनामा खाद्य तथा पेय पदार्थ समूहको मुद्रास्फीति ५.६७ प्रतिशत र गैर–खाद्य तथा सेवा समूहको मुद्रास्फीति ८.२५ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । २०७७ मंसिरको तुलनामा २०७८ मंसिरमा घ्यू तथा तेल, यातायात, दाल तथा गेडागुडी, शिक्षा र सुर्तीजन्य वस्तु उपसमूहको मूल्यवृद्धि क्रमशः २८.५२ प्रतिशत, १६.२५ प्रतिशत, ११.७९ प्रतिशत, ११.७८ प्रतिशत र ११.७४ प्रतिशत रहेको छ ।

मंसिर महिनामा तराईमा सबैभन्दा बढी भाउ बढेको देखिन्छ । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार काठमाडौं उपत्यकामा ५.९१ प्रतिशत, तराईमा ७.५२ प्रतिशत, पहाडमा ६.९५ प्रतिशत र हिमालमा ४.९१ प्रतिशत मुद्रास्फीति रहेको छ । जबकि २०७७ मंसिरमा यी क्षेत्रहरुमा क्रमशः ३.७१ प्रतिशत, २.३५ प्रतिशत, ३.९५ प्रतिशत र ४.२२ प्रतिशत मुद्रास्फीति रहेको थियो ।

तर, २०७८ मंसिरमा वार्षिक बिन्दुगत तलब तथा ज्यालादर सूचकांक भने बढेको छ । मंसिरमा वार्षिक बिन्दुगत तलब तथा ज्यालादर सूचकांक ६.५३ प्रतिशतले बढेको भन्दै राष्ट्र बैंकले अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही महिनामा उक्त सूचकांक ०.९९ प्रतिशतले बढेको जनाएको छ । चालु आवको पाँचौं महिनामा तलब सूचकांक र ज्यालादर सूचकांक क्रमशः ९.४४ प्रतिशत र ५.७१ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।

यसका साथै लगातार घटिरहेको रेमिट्यान्स आय पनि चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पाँच महिनामा पनि सुधार आउन सकेन । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार पाँच महिना रेमिट्यान्स आय ६.८ प्रतिशतले कमी आई ३ खर्ब ८८ अर्ब ५८ करोडमा झरेको छ । गत वर्षको मंसिरमा रेमिट्यान्स आय अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा ११ प्रतिशतले बढेको थियो ।

तर, मंसिरसम्ममा वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि अन्तिम श्रम स्वीकृति (संस्थागत तथा व्यक्तिगत–नयाँ र वैधानिकीकरण) लिने नेपालीको संख्या भने उल्लेख्य रुपमा वृद्धि भई १ लाख ३१ हजार ८२ पुगेको छ । वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि पुनः श्रम स्वीकृति लिने नेपालीको संख्या २९५.८ प्रतिशतले वृद्धि भई ९९ हजार ५८० पुगेको छ भने अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा यस्तो संख्या ७७.३ प्रतिशतले घटेको थियो । मंसिरसम्ममा खुद ट्रान्सफर ५.७ प्रतिशतले कमी आई ४ खर्ब ३३ अर्ब ९२ करोड पुगेको छ । अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा यस्तो ट्रान्सफर ८.५ प्रतिशतले बढेको थियो ।

यसका साथै अर्थतन्त्रको अर्को महत्वपूर्ण सूचक शोधनान्तर घाटा चुलिँदै गएको छ । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार मंसिरसम्ममा शोधनान्तर घाटा एक खर्ब ९५ अर्ब १ करोड पुगेको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको सुरुदेखि नै शोधनान्तर घाटा बढिरहेको छ । साउनमै ३८ अर्ब ७५ करोड शोधनान्तर घाटा थियो भने भदौमा ८३ अर्ब ४१ करोड पुगेको थियो । तर, असोजमा शोधनान्तर घाटा केही घटेर ७६ अर्ब १४ करोडमा झरेको थियो । फेरि कात्तिकमा एक खर्ब ५० अर्ब ३८ करोड पुगेको शोधनान्तर घाटा मंसिरमा एक खर्ब ९५ अर्ब एक करोड पुगेको छ ।

यसरी शोधनान्तर घाटा लगातार बढ्दा चालु खाता घाटामा पनि दबाब पुगेको छ । कात्तिकमा २ खर्ब २३ अर्ब १९ करोड रहेको चालु खाता घाटा मंसिरमा ३ खर्ब ६९ करोड रुपैयाँमा पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । समग्रमा अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकहरु सुधार हुन नसकेका कारण अर्थतन्त्रमा समस्या आउने देखिन्छ । बुधबार विश्व बैंकले पनि चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा आर्थिक बृद्धिदरमा संकुचन आई ३.७ प्रतिशत रहने प्रक्षेपण गरेको छ ।

यसका साथै, विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति पनि घट्ने क्रम जारी छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चौथो महिनामा ७.२ महिनाको वस्तु तथा आयात धान्न पुग्ने देखिएको विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति पाँचौ महिनामा आइपुग्दा घटेर ६.८ महिनाको वस्तु तथा आयातमात्रै धान्न अवस्थामा झरेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ ।

आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-०७९ को पाँच महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा बैंकिङ क्षेत्रसँग रहेको विदेशी विनिमय संचिती ७.५ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ६.८ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न पर्याप्त रहने देखिन्छ, राष्ट्र बैकले जनायो । २०७८ असार मसान्तमा १३ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३ करोड बराबर रहेको कुल विदेशी विनिमय संचिती घटेर मंसिर मसान्तमा १२ खर्ब १४ अर्ब ३ करोड भएको हो ।

Inflation soars, remittance and forex reserve deplete, BoP further in loss

The economic indicators have been continuously worsening since the begining of the current fiscal year 2021-22.

According to the current macroeconomic and financial situation report published by the central bank, inflation has been looking up, remittance and foreign currency reserve are depleting, and Balance of Payment (BoP) has seen further loss. 

"The year-on-year consumer price inflation has stood at 7.11 per cent in the fifth month of current fiscal year 2021-22 compared to only 2.93 per cent a year ago's same period," the current macroeconomic and financial situation report based on five months’ data ending mid-December, 2021, reads. "The food and beverage inflation stood at 5.67 per cent, whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 8.25 per cent by the end of the fifth month of the current fiscal year," the report reads, adding that the price of ghee and oil; transportation; pulses and legumes; education and tobacco products rose by 28.52 per cent, 16.25 per cent, 11.79 per cent, 11.78 per cent and 11.74 per cent, respectively on a year-on-year basis. "Inflation in Kathmandu Valley, Tarai, Hills and Mountains have also increased compared to last year."

As of the first five months, Terai witnessed the largest price hike of 7.52 per cent, followed by hill (6.95 per cent), Kathmandu Valley (5.91 per cent) and mountain (4.91 per cent).

The monthly consumer price inflation climbed to its highest in 64 months in December 2021, rising to 7.11 per cent year-on-year from 5.32 per cent in November, the central bank data reveals, adding that the last time the country witnessed the highest monthly inflation rate was in September 2016-17 at 7.9 per cent.

Experts warn inflation may jump to a double-digit figure this fiscal year. And so does the central bank's Inflation Expectation Survey published in November 2021. It showed that a majority of people expected average prices of goods and services to rise by a staggering 11.3 per cent over the next year.

Likewise, remittance inflows decreased by 6.8 per cent to Rs 388.58 billion in the fifth month against an increase of 11 per cent in the same period last year. "In the US Dollar terms, remittance inflows decreased by 7.3 per cent to 3.26 billion in the review period against an increase of 6.4 per cent during the same period last year."

However, the number of Nepali migrant workers (institutional and individual-new and legalised) taking approval for foreign employment increased significantly to 131,082 in the fifth month of the current fiscal year. It had decreased by 92.7 per cent in the same period last year."

Likewise, the number of Nepali migrant workers (Renew entry) taking approval for foreign employment department increased by 295.8 per cent to 99,580, which had decreased by 77.3 per cent in the same period last year.

The widening trade deficit and depleting inflow of remittance has hit the Balance of Payment (BoP). According to the central bank report, the Balance of Payment (BoP) remained at a deficit of 195.01 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year, way down from the deficit of Rs 150.38 billion in the first four month. It shows that the country faced a net loss of Rs 44.63 billion just in one month’s period of transaction with the rest of the world.

LiIkewise, the deficit of the current account also deepened further from Rs 223.19 billion to Rs 300.69 billion.

Another key economic indicator, the gross foreign exchange reserves also decreased by 13.2 per cent to Rs 1214.03 billion in mid-December 2021 from Rs 1399.03 billion in mid-July 2021, the central bank report reads, adding that in US Dollar terms, the gross foreign exchange reserves decreased by 14.7 per cent to 10.03 billion in mid-December 2021 from 11.75 billion in mid-July 2021. "Of the total foreign exchange reserves, reserves held by the central bank decreased by 12.9 per cent to Rs 1084.64 billion in mid-December 2021 from Rs 1244.63 billion in mid-July 2021."

Likewise, reserves held by banks and financial institutions (except central bank) also decreased by 16.2 per cent to Rs 129.40 billion in mid-December 2021 from Rs 154.39 billion in mid-July 2021. The share of Indian currency in total reserves stood at 25.1 per cent in mid-December 2021.

Based on the imports of five months of 2021-22, the foreign exchange reserves is sufficient only to cover the prospective merchandise imports of 7.5 months, and merchandise and services imports of 6.8 months.

In terms of trade, exports increased by a whopping 105.6 per cent to Rs 102.92 billion compared to an increase of 5.1 per cent in the same period of last fiscal year. At the same time, imports also increased by 59.5 per cent to Rs 838.41 billion. Over the period, the trade deficit soared by 54.7 percent to Rs 735.49 billion.  "The export to import ratio increased to 12.3 per cent in the review period from 9.5 per cent in the same period of the previous year."

During the first five months of the current fiscal year, imports from India by paying convertible foreign currency amounted Rs 92.34 billion, the report adds. 

हजारको नोट छाप्न बन्द गरौं, अर्थतन्त्र सफा गरौं

भनिन्छ, हरेक समस्या तथा चुनौतीमा विज्ञ तथा व्यावसायिक मानिसले समाधान देख्छ, तर राजनीतिज्ञले हरेक समाधानमा समस्या देख्छ । नेपालमा यो भनाइ हुबहु मिल्छ, किनकि हरेक विषयलाई नेपालमा राजनीतीकरण गरिन्छ । नागरिकका दैनिन्दिनी समस्यामा पनि राजनीति हुने भएकाले मुलुकले राजनीतिक प्रणाली फेरिसके पनि आर्थिक क्रान्तिको जग बसाउन सकेन । यसबीच प्रचण्ड बहुमतको स्थिर सरकारले पनि अर्थतन्त्रलाई सुधार गर्नुको साटो झन् बढी बिचौलियाकरण गरेर छोड्यो । वर्तमान सरकारले अर्थतन्त्रको समस्या बुझ्ने मेसो नपाउँदै मुलुक विकराल समस्यातर्फ उन्मुख देखिन्छ । त्यसैले सरकारले आफ्नो दृढ इच्छाशक्तिको प्रदर्शन नगर्ने र यथास्थितिमा नै चल्ने हो भने अर्थतन्त्रको बिचौलियाकरण बढ्नेमात्र देखिन्छ । यसका समाधान खोज्न आवश्यक भइसकेको छ । सरकारी तथ्यांक तथा बजारको तालमेल छैन । सरकारी बेवास्ताका कारण उपभोक्ता बजारमा हरेक दिन लाखौं रुपैयाँ ठगिन्छन् । किनकि महँगी बढ्नुमा लाचार उपभोक्ताहरू जिम्मेवार छन् नै, तर प्रमुख जिम्मेवार भने बिचौलिया हुन् र उनीहरूको पहुँच सरकारसम्म छ । मूल्यवृद्धि नियन्त्रण नहुँदा मुलुक असफल राष्ट्रतर्फ उन्मुख हुन्छ । तसर्थ, सरकारले उपभोक्ताको हित गर्ने तथा अर्थतन्त्रको सुधार गर्ने, कालोधनलाई नियन्त्रण गर्ने, भ्रष्टाचार अनि कालोबजारी नियन्त्रण गर्न पनि डिजिटल अर्थतन्त्र कार्यान्वयनमा ढिलाइ गर्नु हुँदैन ।

हजारजस्ता ठूला दरका नोट छाप्न बन्द गरेर ठूला कारोबार बैंकिङ च्यानलमार्फत मात्र गर्ने तथा साना कारोबारमा मात्र नोटको प्रचलनमा ल्याउन प्रोत्साहन गर्ने हो भने एकातिर उपभोक्ता हित संरक्षण हुन्छ भने अर्कातिर यसले डिजिटल अर्थतन्त्रमा फड्को मार्न मद्दत गर्छ । कोरोना महामारीले विश्वभर पढाएको पाठ नेपालले सिक्दै डिजिटल अर्थतन्त्रलाई कार्यान्वयनमा ल्याउन ढिलाइ गर्नु हुँदैन । यो अवसरको सदुपयोग गरौं । यसबाट मुलुकको दीर्घरोग भइसकेको भ्रष्टाचार तथा कालोबजारी एवं कालोधनको ओसारपसार एवं अनौपचारिक अर्थतन्त्रलाई पनि औपचारिक अर्थतन्त्रभित्र ल्याउन सहज हुन्छ ।

पछिल्ला चार वर्षमा नेपाली अर्थतन्त्र झन् बढी अनौपचारिक तथा छाया अर्थतन्त्रमा रूपान्तरण हुँदै गइरहेको छ । सरकारले नै नीतिगत रूपमा अर्थतन्त्रलाई अनौपचारिक तथा छाया अर्थतन्त्रमा रूपान्तरण गर्ने भूमिका खेलेको छ । त्यसैले अब सरकारले आफ्नो नीतिगत गल्तीलाई सुधार गरी अर्थतन्त्र सफा गर्ने अवसर आएको छ । यो मौका किन पनि महŒवपूर्ण छ भने कालोधनविरुद्धको नेपालको आफ्नो प्रतिबद्धताको अब आउने केही महिनामा नै परीक्षण हुँदै छ । त्यसमा नेपालले आफ्ना कानुनी तथा नीतिगत सुधारका फेहरिस्त प्रस्तुत गर्नुपर्नेछ । क्षेत्रीय सञ्जाल एसिया प्रशान्त समूह (एपीजी) मार्फत नेपाल पनि एफएटीएफको सदस्य रहेकाले सम्पत्ति शुद्धीकरणका विषयमा उसले नेपालको मूल्यांकन सार्वजनिक गर्नेछ । त्यसमा नेपालको कानुनी, प्राविधिक र संस्थागत संरचनाका विषयहरूमा मूल्यांकन हुनेछ, जसमा नेपाल अझै खैरो सूचीमा पर्ने सम्भावना रहेको छ । यसअघि पनि नेपाल निगरानीमा परिसकेको हुनाले नेपालले कालोधनविरुद्धको आफ्नो प्रतिबद्धता यसपटक व्यवहारमा पनि देखाउन आवश्यक छ । तसर्थ ठूला नोट छाप्न बन्द गर्ने, ठूला कारोबारलाई बैंकिङ प्रणालीमार्फत मात्र प्रोत्साहित गर्ने जस्ता कार्यले नेपालको कालोधनविरुद्धको अभियानमा विश्वले विश्वास गर्ने वातावरण बन्छ । घरजग्गालगायत विविध कारोबारमा न्यून मूल्य देखाएर गरिने करछलीलगायतका सरकारलाई राजस्वमा भइरहेको नोक्सानलाई पनि यसले सम्बोधन गर्न सक्छ । अझ महत्वपूर्ण विषय त नेपाल डिजिटल अर्थतन्त्रको युगमा प्रवेश गर्नेछ । साथै, एक तथा दुई रुपैयाँका साना नोट प्रशस्त छाप्दा बजारमा भइरहेको खुद्रा मूल्यवृद्धिलाई पनि नियन्त्रण गर्न सकिन्छ । हाल बजारमा अनुभव भइरहेको मूल्यवृद्धि र नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकमा आउने मूल्यवृद्धिको फरक पनि घटाउन मद्दत गर्नेछ । तसर्थ, हजारको नोट छाप्न बन्द गरौं र एक, दुई, पाँच, दस, बीस, पचास, सय र पाँच सयको नोट मात्रै छापौं ।
(https://www.karobardaily.com/news/163413)

New Rs 100 and Rs 500 denominations bank notes to have security threads

 At the time, when the central bank has to prioritise reprinting Re1 and Rs 2 denomination bank notes to check the spiraling retail price inflation, it is planning to introduce new bank notes of Rs 100 and Rs 500 denominations.

"The new notes of Rs 100 and Rs 500 denominations will be identified by even the visually-impaired people by touching," the central bank confirmed. "Earlier the central bank had introduced Rs 1,000 denomination bank notes."

The new notes of Rs 100 and Rs 500 will have a highly-secure security thread that could be verified by machines, the central bank said, adding that the new bank note with security thread is also expected to reduce the distribution of fake banknotes in the market.

According to the Currency Management Department under the central bank, the central bank has already printed Rs 100 denomination bank notes worth Rs 400 million this year, while banknotes of Rs 500 denomination, worth Rs 190 million, will be printed out by November 17.

The central bank has also signed an agreement to print more bank notes of Rs 1,000 denomination, with security thread, for seven years under the same rate in case more notes need to be printed out, though it is high time the government should stop printing Rs 1000 denomination bank notes, also to check corruption, flow of black money and rise in retail inflation in the market that is not reflected in the central bank's data at present.

It will also encourage the people to shift to the digital banking for larger transaction,

The central bank is going to implement every safety measure when it comes to keeping the Nepali bank notes safe and secure with added safety measures.

Economy to modestly grow to 4.1 per cent: ADB

Nepal’s economy is anticipated to grow by 4.1 per cent  (at market prices) in the current fiscal year 2021-22, up from an estimated growth of 2.3 per cent in the last fiscal year, according to the latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 Update, a flagship publication of the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The multilateral development partner has revised Nepal’s economic growth rate to downwards 4.1 per cent from an earlier projection of 5.1 per cent. However, the coalition government led by the Nepali Congress has targetted an ambitious 7 per cent economic growth for the current fiscal year, through budget substitution bill. Earlier government led by KP Sharma Oli had targetted to achieve 6.5 per cent economic growth.

In the fiscal year 2019-20, Nepal posted a negative economic growth of 2.1 per cent, which was lowest in nearly the past four decades. The ADB has also revised the projected economic growth rate of Nepal to 2.3 per cent in the last fiscal year 2020-21, down from its previous estimation of 3.1 per cent announced last April.

"Growth will largely be supported by the ongoing vaccination campaign against Covid-19 as the national immunisation plan remains key to Nepal’s economic recovery,” said ADB country director for Nepal Arnaud Cauchois. "Downside risks include the uncertain trajectory of Covid-19, a possible surge in Covid-19 cases, and subsequent strict containment measures, which could reverse the gradual economic recovery in the last fiscal year 2020-21."

According to the report, growth in Nepal’s agriculture will likely be boosted by increased paddy plantation amid abundant rainfall this monsoon season. Industry output is expected to grow, thanks to a large increase in export volume and stronger domestic demand, as rollout of the national vaccination plan will reduce infection rates over time.

The government’s fiscal policy for the current fiscal year largely focuses on strengthening the nation’s health care system, the report reads, adding that monetary policy will remain accommodative through a dedicated refinancing facility, concessional lending for priority projects and for affected businesses. "Growth in services will accelerate because of increased economic activities in the wholesale and retail trade, transport, and financial services along with the vaccine rollout nationwide."

International tourism arrivals, which declined by 80.8 per cent in 2020, may gradually recover, as trekking routes and expeditions resume, it adds. "Hotels and restaurants, travel, and tourism will likely take more time to recover to pre-pandemic level until the sustained containment of Covid-19."

The report says the country’s inflation will rise modestly to 5.2 per cent in the current fiscal year 2021-22, up from the projected 3.6 per cent, due to higher global oil prices and a gradual recovery in domestic demand.

Growth in non-oil imports will likely remain high in the current fiscal year, as investments rise on the gradual revival of the economy. On the other hand, growth in oil imports may be slow, because an increase in hydroelectricity generation may partially offset a rise in fossil fuel consumption. Even with continued strong growth in exports and remittances, the current account deficit will remain high, at an estimated 5 per cent of GDP, though down from 8 per cent a year earlier.

Other downside risks include natural hazards such as erratic monsoons and floods, which could reduce farm output and damage infrastructure, the report reads, adding that heavy rainfall since mid-June 2021 has triggered landslides and floods and led to the loss of lives and livelihoods in some mountainous districts of Nepal.

The report also says that fiscal spending by provincial and local governments can be improved if they address the persistent capacity deficiencies in investment planning, financial management, project readiness, procurement, and contract management.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members, 49 from the region.

Inflation eased to 3.6 per cent

Despite price hike in edible oils and pulses and legumes, consumer price inflation in the last fiscal year dropped at 3.6 per cent -- probably the lowest annual average price rise in the past two decades.

According to the ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’ released by the central bank, the inflation rate in the last fiscal year 2020-21 was lower by 2.55 point per cent compared to that of 6.15 per cent in 2019-20.

The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) report revealed that the average consumer price of ghee and oil, pulses and legumes, tobacco products, and transportation sub-groups rose by 17.54 per cent, 10.65 per cent, 9.83 per cent and 6.41 per cent, respectively on an annual basis.

The annual average non-food and services inflation stood at 2.51 per cent in 2020-21 compared to 4.61 per cent a year ago, the NRB report reads, adding that the inflation in the Kathmandu Valley subdued to 3.33 per cent from 6.96 per cent, whereas the inflation in Terai was down to 3.68 per cent from 6.29 per cent. "The inflation in the hills stood at 3.87 per cent, down from 5.10 per cent, whereas it decreased to 2.87 per cent from 4.91 per cent in the mountain region.

Consumer price inflation slows to 3.49 per cent

 The four-month long lockdown by the government to contain the coronavirus (Covid-19) has brought down the price hike as the market remained almost closed down for 120 days from March 24.

The year-on-year consumer price inflation stood at 3.49 per cent in mid-August 2020 compared to 6.95 per cent a year ago revealed the central bank’s Macroeconomic Update report – for the first month of the current fiscal year – released today.

Food and beverage inflation stood at 5.38 per cent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 2.04 per cent in the first month of the current fiscal year, the report reads, adding that the price of pulses and legumes, meat and fish and tobacco products rose significantly compared to mid-July 2019. “The price of vegetables increased by 28.21 per cent in mid-August 2020 compared to a month ago.”

Likewise, Kathmandu Valley, Tarai, hills and mountains witnessed 3.31 per cent, 4.02 per cent, 2.72 per cent and 4.07 per cent inflation, respectively, the report further reads, adding that these regions had witnessed 8.63 per cent, 6.46 per cent, six per cent and 5.57 per cent inflation, respectively, a year ago.

Government goes bankrupt

Though, incumbent finance minister Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada – issuing a whitepaper two years ago intending to tarnish the earlier government’s image – claimed that the government coffer was empty and the economic indicators were worse, he has finally succeeded to empty the treasury and worsen the economic indicators further, by himself.
As Khatiwada presented his third budget in a row – the only second lucky finance minister to do so after 1990 – the government has no money to pay salary to its employees because of its failure in mobilising the revenue. “The government is having a cash crunch to manage immediate liabilities due to a shortage in revenue mobilisation also because of nationwide lockdown imposed since last 82 days,” a senior government employee at the Finance Ministry confirmed.
The government has imposed nationwide lockdown since March 24 that has stagnated all the businesses activities across the country. The government needs around Rs 40 billion – every month – to meet mandatory liabilities like regular salary to its employees, but it has been able to mobilise around Rs 15 billion from the major source – customs offices – only in a month, according to the Finance Ministry official. The government coffer has only around Rs 50 billion at present, which is enough for the salary of next month, which is the last month of the current fiscal year,” he said, adding that from the first month of the next fiscal year, the government will not be able to pay regular salaries to its staff also due to Supreme Court move to restrict the government to collect tax during the lockdown. “The Supreme Court has issued interim order to the government not to push the private sector for tax during the lockdown and allow them 30 days after the lockdown, is fully relaxed, to clear tax dues.”
The Finance Ministry has, however, moved to the Supreme Court to vacate the interim order as it will fail to pay salary, if it is not allowed to mobilise tax this month. The government imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 24, closing industries, businesses, suspending ground and air travel, and has asked to pay tax within June 21. Some entrepreneurs went to Apex Court asking an interim order against the Inland Revenue Department (IRD) – under the Finance Ministry – diktat.
According to the Financial Comptroller General’s Office (FCGO), the revenue mobilisation as of today stands at only 58 per cent of the target that is Rs 1.11 billion. Although the government keeps high hopes on gathering a significant amount in taxes in the final month of the fiscal year, it is likely to face a huge shortfall due to Supreme Court’s interim order this time.
The government has an option to transfer the money from various funds into its treasury to meet its necessary liabilities including salary for government workers, pensions for retired employees, social security allowance for the elderly and disadvantaged groups, and payments to be made for internal and external loans.
Citing the adverse situation in revenue mobilisation, the government expects to receive Rs 299.50 billion from external debt and Rs 225 billion from domestic borrowing mainly to meet the recurrent expenditure. But the government capacity to absorb the external debt is limited due to structural and procedural problems, whereas more domestic borrowing will squeeze private sector’s capacity to borrow hurting the economic growth. “Likewise, borrowing to pay salary to the government employees will also send a wrong message as the private sector is also not able to pay salary to its employees,” the official said, adding that more domestic borrowing – for administrative purposes – could also result in an exorbitant rise in market prices.
While presenting his third budget on May 28, Khatiwada claimed that the government will be able to mobilise Rs 827 billion revenue, contain inflation under 7 per cent, and achieve 7 per cent economic growth.

Trade deficit narrows by 8.9 per cent

The exports surged by 23.9 per cent to narrow the trade deficit gap by 8.9 per cent to Rs 414.02 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20, while imports fell by 6.9 per cent.
According to ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’ published by the central bank, Nepal exported merchandise goods worth Rs 36.28 billion, the first four months of the current fiscal year, compared to an increase of 11 per cent a year ago, whereas merchandise imports decreased to Rs 450.3 billion against an increase of 35.8 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
As usual exports of palm oil, cardamom, yarn (polyester and other), jute goods, medicine (ayurvedic), among others, has increased but imports of MS billet, petroleum products, gold, aircraft spare parts, cement, among others, decreased.
The central bank report revealed that balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 27.29 billion in the four months of the current fiscal year against a deficit of Rs 57.33 billion in the same period of last fiscal year. But the current account registered a deficit of Rs 37.3 billion against a deficit of Rs 88.43 billion in the same period of previous year, according to the report.
The number of Nepali workers – both institutional and individual, and also new and legalised, who migrated for foreign employment – increased by 5.6 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year. “The number had plunged by 39.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.”
However, despite the rise in outflow of Nepali migrant workers, remittance inflow dropped by 2.3 per cent to Rs 304.96 billion against an increase of 36.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.
Likewise, the year-on-year consumer price inflation (CPI) also stood at 5.76 per cent in mid-November compared to 4.15 per cent a year ago. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 7.96 per cent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 4.07 per cent,” the report revealed, adding that within the food and beverage group, prices of vegetables, fruits, meat and fish and spices sub-groups rose significantly, while prices of housing and utilities, clothes and footwear and education subgroups within the non-food and service group rose moderately in the review month.

ADB gives $358 million loan for four new projects

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Nepal today signed a $358 million loan in total for four new projects.
The signing included a loan of $195 million to improve the highway section between Pokhara and Mugling, a $63 million loan in additional financing to improve flood management and river health in Nepal’s polluted Bagmati River Basin, a $50 million loan to improve the livelihoods and increase incomes of small farmers in Nepal and a $50 million policy-based loan to support the government’s reforms in agriculture and food safety.
At the Finance Ministry, finance secretary Rajan Khanal and ADB country director for Nepal Mukhtor Khamudkhanov signed the agreements on behalf of their respective institutions. “We thank ADB for its support to key sectors of the economy, including infrastructure, agriculture and rural finance,” Khanal said, adding that ADB’s support to Nepal’s reform initiatives in important sectors is also highly appreciated. “All these are very important projects for Nepal and will support the government’s plan for a more inclusive sustainable development of the country.”
“Over the years, ADB has significantly scaled up its development assistance for Nepal and this shows that our partnership with Nepal continues to grow stronger,” Khamudkhanov  said, on the occasion. “Nepal can further tap the opportunities of increased lending space provided by ADB with improved portfolio performance, and we appreciate the efforts taken by Nepal government in that direction.”
Under the SASEC Mugling-Pokhara Highway Improvement Project, 81-km of the road will be widened to four lanes from Pokhara to Abukhaireni to meet increasing demand. Improvements will be made to the surfacing, structure, and drainage, with safety features such as crash barriers, and traffic and other warning light systems installed.
The additional funds for the Bagmati River Basin Improvement Project will finance an additional 5.75-km of riverbank beautification in the heart of Kathmandu city, construct a wastewater treatment plant integrated into the landscape to treat a polluted tributary flowing into the Bagmati River, construct and equip a new regional building for the river basin office, and provide funds to train communities along the river on flood early warning systems.
The Food Safety and Agriculture Commercialisation Programme, comprised of a two-tranche, standalone policy-based loan, will improve food safety and quality monitoring systems in Nepal, particularly in enhancing the regulatory and institutional capacity for sanitary and phytosanitary monitoring.
The Rural Enterprise Financing Project will help improve rural enterprises’ and cooperatives’ access to finance, addressing the low appetite of formal financial institutions in financing rural enterprises, a press note from the multilateral development partner reads, adding that it will help to raise small farmers’ incomes and improve their livelihoods.

Inflation outpaces government target

The consumer price rise has outpaced the government’s target, though budget has vowed to tame inflation at 6 per cent in the current fiscal year 2019-20.
According to ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal – based on three months’ data of 2019-20 – released by the central bank today, the average inflation, as measured in consumer price index (CPI), stood at 6.44 per cent in the first three months of the current fiscal year.
According to the central bank data, the year-on-year consumer price inflation jumped to 6.21 per cent in mid-October 2019 compared to 4.68 per cent a year ago. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 7.04 per cent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 5.55 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year,” it reads, adding that vegetable inflation rose by 16.83 per cent, while meat and fish prices jumped by 8.31 per cent.
The rising consumer prices in India has added the inflationary pressure to domestic market as Nepal imports everything including inflation from India. The consumer price inflation has reached a 16-month high of 4.62 per cent in India.
Likewise, rising salary and wages have also driven up inflation in recent months. “The year-on-year salary and wage rate index increased by 12.07 per cent in the first quarter compared to 8.73 per cent a year ago,” the report reads, adding that salary index and wage rate index increased by 13.56 per cent and 11.67 per cent, respectively.