World Bank outlines four key reforms to boost growth, create jobs

Nepal has achieved remarkable success in poverty reduction, nearly eradicating extreme poverty, largely driven by remittances. To strengthen future growth, Nepal should prioritise policy actions that unlock domestic opportunities, according to the World Bank’s Nepal Country Economic Memorandum: Unlocking Nepal’s Growth Potential, released today.

Despite progress, Nepal’s economic growth lags regional peers, it reads, adding that Nepal's economy grew at an average annual real rate of just 4.2 per cent between 1996 and 2023, ranking sixth out of eight South Asian nations. Structural challenges such as low productivity, declining exports, and a stagnant industrial sector have held back the economy and led to slow job creation in non-agriculture sectors. Young workers are migrating abroad in search of better job opportunities as domestic prospects remain limited.

“Nepal's success in poverty reduction is impressive, but its economic potential remains largely untapped,” said World Bank Division Country Director for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka David Sislen. “Nepal has significant potential to drive stronger growth and create jobs by implementing key reforms to increase the returns from migration, boost exports, use hydropower efficiently, and boost digitalisation.”

“The 16th Plan for Nepal outlines a vision of good governance, social justice, and prosperity and prioritizes productivity and competitiveness, decent and productive jobs, social security, and ensuring a smooth transition from LDC status,"  vice chair of the National Planning Commission (NPC) Prof Dr Shiva Raj Adhikari said, adding that the government is committed to ensuring an enabling policy environment for Nepal’s sustainable growth.

The Nepal Country Economic Memorandum produced every five years, offers a roadmap for faster growth in key sectors. It recommends policy actions in four critical areas to unlock Nepal's economic potential.

Getting more out of migration: A systematic and institutionalised migration system can enhance the returns from migration. Integrating migration into national development, job creation, and poverty reduction strategies will provide a platform to work towards such a system. Policies should focus on reducing the cost and increasing the benefits and safety for current low-skilled migrants, while also eyeing longer-term skill and destination diversification. Expanding and better implementing bilateral labor agreements will be critical. Initiatives promoting entrepreneurship and retraining and reskilling programmes would allow returning migrants to reintegrate into the domestic labour market.

Improving export performance: Improving market competition in key sectors and addressing infrastructure deficits can boost exports. Better managing inflationary pressures would address the erosion of exporters’ price competitiveness. Encouraging people to use remittances for investments and business growth could help ease inflation. Simplifying the process for businesses to get tax refunds on imported materials and lowering import taxes would make it easier for them to export more products. With Nepal’s transition from Least Developed Countries (LDCs) status and the loss of trade preferences, authorities should seek additional preferential trade agreements. 

Harnessing the potential of hydropower: Developing a clear financing strategy to develop the hydropower sector will help mobilise much-needed investments. This strategy could include developing the domestic bond market and an effective framework for large-scale public-private partnerships. Strengthening the regulatory and legal frameworks, by reducing bureaucratic red tape and streamlining the current licensing process, would improve the structure of the electricity market and attract additional investment.

Boosting the digital sector: Updating the Telecommunications Act and the digital strategy and adopting key digital infrastructure faster would boost the development of the digital sector. Low digital skills, one of the key roadblocks in the sector, need to be addressed by integrating these skills in school curricula and through training programmes for different age groups and demographics.

World Bank approves $100 million to support policy framework for GRID and Growth

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors today approved a $100 million development policy operation (DPO) to help Nepal strengthen its ongoing efforts to implement green, resilient, and inclusive development (GRID). This is the second in a programmatic series of three DPOs which aims to improve the enabling environment for Nepal's sustainability pathway, according to the World Bank.

“This programmatic DPO series is a catalyst for Nepal to build greater resilience and sustainability, and drive and protect the basis for long-term growth for all Nepalis,” World Bank Regional Country Director for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka David Sislen said, adding that this operation supports Nepal’s policy programme in a variety of sectors including green fiscal instruments, water security, irrigation, land use and management, sustainable forest management, and climate and disaster information systems.

Since 2021, the government has laid out an ambitious programme of action in the area of environmental sustainability, resilience, and inclusive development. This approach recognises the need for a development model to address the intertwined challenges of joblessness, pandemics, expanding economic opportunities for vulnerable groups, and climate and other environmental risks that impact Nepal’s people, prosperity, and environment.

The World Bank DPO series anchors Nepal’s ongoing shift to a more sustainable development path. Nepal’s policies supported by the DPO series arose from stakeholder dialogues and Nepal’s own development priority programmes and plans. These policies aim to improve air quality, expand hydro-meteorological services to better disaster risk reduction, improve water security by boosting year-round irrigation and safe water supply, strengthen community forest management, and enhance land use planning.

“Nepal continues to put in place a strong policy programme that recognises that resilience is best achieved when sustainability and inclusion are also pursued in an integrated way,” World Bank Programme Leader for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka and Task Team Leader for the operation Stephen Danyo, said adding that it is at the heart of Nepal’s approach to sustainability, resilience, and inclusion.

Nepal’s policy programme is set to help the country attract and expand investment in several sectors important for jobs, livelihoods, health, and resilience for millions of citizens.  As one part of the solution to the challenges mentioned above, the DPO series supports Nepal to generate durable development impacts.

कसको बजेट ?

गणतन्त्रका पाँच वर्षअघि र गणतन्त्रपछिको पाँच वर्षमा अर्थतन्त्रमा खासै परिवर्तन आएको छैन । नागरिकले आर्थिक विकासको अनुभूति गर्न तथा सुशासन एवं आफैंले छानेका प्रतिनिधिमार्फत शासन गर्दा मुलुकको आर्थिक विकास हुन्छ भन्ने आशा गरेका थिए । तर, गणतन्त्रका अघिल्ला पाँच वर्षमा औसत ४.५४ प्रतिशत आर्थिक वृद्धि भएकोमा गणतन्त्रपछिका पाँच वर्षमा पनि औसत ४.४ प्रतिशत नै आर्थिक वृद्धि भएको छ ।

संयोगले गणतन्त्र दिवसकै दिन हरेक वर्ष १५ जेठमा बजेट आउँछ । गणतन्त्रका पाँच वर्षमा नेपाली नागरिकले ६ वटा बजेट देखे । भलै कार्यान्वयनमा भने पाँचवटा मात्रै आएको छ । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको बजेट तत्कालीन अर्थमन्त्री विष्णु पौडेलले तथा वर्तमान अर्थमन्त्री जनार्दन शर्माले ल्याएका कारण ५ वटा बजेट भए पनि गणतन्त्रपछिका बजेट कार्यान्वयनको अवस्था हेर्दा गणतन्त्र अघिभन्दा तात्विक भिन्नता छैन । नागरिकमा परम्परागत राजनीतिक दलप्रति चुलिँदो अविश्वासको प्रमुख कारण पनि यही नै हो । नागरिकले महसुस हुने गरी परिवर्तनको अनुभव गर्न पाएका छैनन् । गणतन्त्रको लाभ पाउनबाट चुकेकै कारण पनि नागरिकमा निराशा छ, जुन स्थानीय तहको निर्वाचनको परिणामले पनि देखाएको छ । आइतबार संसद्को संयुक्त बैठकमा अर्थमन्त्री जनार्दन शर्माले दोस्रो बजेट ल्याए । तर, कसको लागि बजेट ल्याए त ?

पछिल्लो समय मुद्रास्फीति बढेका कारण मध्य आय भएका नागरिकका लागि बजेटमा विशेष केही नभएको वरिष्ठ अर्थविद् प्रा.डा. विश्वम्भर प्याकु¥याल बताउँछन् । सरकारले विश्वमा विविध कारणले बढेको महँगीलाई सरकारी कर्मचारीको तलब बढाएर सम्हाल्ने प्रयास त गरेको छ तर, यसले सामान्य नागरिकलाई असर गर्ने उनको तर्क छ । भारतमा पनि मूल्यवृद्धि भइरहेको तथा रुस तथा युक्रेन युद्धका कारण विश्व आपूर्ति शृंखलामा नकारात्मक असर पनि परेका कारण मूल्यवृद्धि ६ प्रतिशतभित्रै राख्न सरकारलाई कठिन भएको उनको विचार छ ।

सरकारी कर्मचारीको तलब १५ प्रतिशतले बढेका कारण मूल्यवृद्धिलाई त्यसले ढाडस हुने अर्थविद् नरबहादुर थापा बताउँछन् । साथै सरकारले व्यक्ति वा परिवारको आधारभूत जीवन निर्वाह लागतलाई दृष्टिगत गर्दै प्राकृतिक व्यक्ति तथा दम्पत्तिलाई आयकर ऐन, २०५८ ले प्रदान गरेका आयकर छुटको सीमालाई वृद्धि गरी प्राकृतिक व्यक्तिको हकमा ५ लाख र दम्पत्तिको हकमा ६ लाख पु¥याएका कारण पनि मध्यम वर्गीयको जीवन सहज हुने उनको अनुमान छ ।

तर, महँगीलाई तह लगाउन आपूर्ति व्यवस्था सहज बनाउने र निगरानी गर्नुपर्नेमा थापा पनि सहमत छन् । नेपालमा प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति ६० हजारभन्दा कम आय भएका नेपाली निम्न आय वर्गमा पर्छन् । जसको जनसंख्या कूल जनसंख्याको १८ प्रतिशत अर्थात् ५३ लाख छ ।

यस्तै, प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति ६० हजारभन्दा बढी र ३ लाख २ हजारसम्म आय भएका नेपालीलाई मध्यमवर्गीय नेपाली मानिएको छ । जसमा ४२ प्रतिशत जनसंख्या पर्दछन् । अर्थात् नेपालमा मध्यमवर्गीयको जनसंख्या १ करोड २२ लाख छ । त्यसपछि ३ लाख ३ हजारभन्दा माथि प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति आय हुने नेपालीलाई सरकारले उच्च आय वर्गमा वर्गीकरण गरेको छ । जसमा ४० प्रतिशत अर्थात् १ करोड १७ लाख जनसंख्या पर्छन् । 

महँगीले निश्चित आय भएका मध्यम वर्गीय १ करोड २२ लाख नेपाली मर्माहत हुँदा बजेटले झन् पीडित बनाएको छ । साथै, स्रोत संकुचन भएका बेला आएको बजेटले सामाजिक सुरक्षामा प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्दै सरकारको दायित्व भने बढाएको छ । राजनीतिक दल तथा सरकारले कसले देशमा बढी दिगो र छिटो विकास गर्ने, गरिबी घटाउने भन्ने प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्नुपर्नेमा कसले कम उमेरमा वृद्धभत्ता दिने भन्ने प्रतिस्पर्धा हँुदै गएको छ । त्यसैले स्रोतको दबाबका बीच सरकारले एकातिर आयकरको सीमा पनि बढाएको छ भने अर्कोतिर वृद्ध भत्ता पाउने उमेरलाई ७० वर्षबाट घटाएर ६८ वर्ष बनाएको छ ।  

वित्तीय समानीकरण अनुदान

प्रदेश : ६१ अर्ब ४३ करोड

स्थानीय तह : १ खर्ब २३ करोड

सशर्त अनुदान

प्रदेश : ५७ अर्ब १ ७ करोड

स्थानीय तह : १ खर्ब ८३ करोड

समपूरक अनुदान

प्रदेश : ६ अर्ब ३० करोड

स्थानीय तह : ७ अर्ब २७ करोड

विशेष अनुदान

प्रदेश : ४ अर्ब ५६ करोड

स्थानीय तह : ९ अर्ब १४

राजस्व बाँडफाँट

१६३ अर्ब ३ करोड

Covid bleeds economy red

 Hit hard by the corona pandemic, economy saw a negative growth of 1.99 per cent in the last fiscal year 2020-21, according to Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

Earlier in April, the CBS had projected economy to grow by 2.27 per cent in the last fiscal year, though the Finance Ministry had claimed the economic growth rate of the country stands at 0.02 per cent in 2019-20.

The CBS also projected the economic growth of the first quarter of the current fiscal year also to remain negative by 4.6 per cent. "But the economy is 'recovering at a V shape,' deputy director general of the CBS Hem Raj Regmi said, during a programme today.

This year the economic growth has been based on a rebasing of the economic indicators, which has been done on an interval of every 10 years. "The gross domestic product, based on the revised estimate, stands at Rs 3.94 trillion," according to the CBS.

Unveiling the data today, the CBS also revealed that the economic growth went down by 15.4 per cent during the last three months, between mid-May and mid-July in the last fiscal year compared to the same period a year ago.

The economy was largely hit after the government imposed a complete countrywide lockdown from March 24 last year for almost four months and partial lockdown again for almost another four months. However, the gross domestic product (GDP) has reached Rs 3.94 trillion due to change in the base year for the national accounts. "The GDP size has been estimated in the revised reference year as the government central data authority has switched the base year to 2010-11 from the previous 2000-01 to calculate the new macroeconomic figures.

With the revision in rebasing, the CBS reveals that the contribution of the service sector to the GDP has grown by 8.4 per cent while those of primary and secondary sectors declined by 9.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively. Likewise, the CBS has revised the weightage of service sector in GDP estimation from 48 per cent to 52.2 per cent. "The weightage of primary sector in the new reference year has been taken at 34 per cent from 37.6 per cent and that of manufacturing sector has been reduced to 13.9 per cent from 14.4 per cent."

The CBS also claimed that the country’s average income stands at  1,134 per capita, based on the new reference year. 

लोकतन्त्र, चुनाव र अर्थतन्त्रको सम्बन्ध

लोकतन्त्रको एउटा सुन्दर पक्ष आवधिक चुनाव हो । सचेत नागरिकले आवधिक चुनावमार्फत नयाँ र पारदर्शी राजनीतिक दल तथा नेता छान्न पाउँछन् । तर, लोकतन्त्र भनेको आवधिक चुनाव मात्रै होइन । कसैको लहडमा गरिने संविधानको मर्म बाहिरको कुनै मध्यावधि चुनाव त हुँदै होइन । यदि आवधिक चुनाव मात्रै लोकतन्त्र हुन्थ्यो भने नेपालमा तत्कालीन राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रले पनि चुनाव गराएका थिए । निर्वाचन आयोग पनि त्यही नै हो, फेरि पनि चुनाव गराउन सक्ला । यसै पनि पछिल्ला समय निर्वाचन आयोगलगायत सबै संवैधानिक निकायहरू भर्तीकेन्द्र भएकै छन् । संविधानको मर्म र नागरिकको अधिकारको रक्षाका लागि खडा गरिएका संवैधानिक निकाय सत्ताका प्यारा मान्छे भर्ना गर्ने केन्द्र भएपछि यस्ता संस्थाहरूले नागरिकको स्वार्थमा, राष्ट्रको स्वार्थमा कति काम गर्छन्, लोकतन्त्रको संरक्षण कसरी गर्न सक्दैनन्, इतिहासले प्रमाणित गरिसकेको छ । लोकमानसिंह कार्की धेरै पुरानो दुर्घटना हैन । एकात्मक सत्ताको विद्यालयमा पढेर हुर्किएकाहरू जतिसुकै लोकतन्त्रवादी देखिए पनि लोकतन्त्र कमजोर बनाउन संस्थाहरू भत्काउन चाहन्छन्, स्वाभाविक हो । यस्ता संस्थाहरू भत्किएपछि लोकतन्त्रमाथि प्रहार गर्न सहज हुन्छ । भर्खरै अमेरिकामा पनि यस्तो कोसिस गरिएको देखियो । तर, त्यहाँ यस्तो प्रयास सफल भएन, किनकि त्यहाँ लोकतान्त्रिक संस्थाहरू बलिया छन् ।

संसारभर सबै तानाशाह राज्यस्रोतको दोहन गरेर नै शक्ति सञ्चय गर्छन् । त्यसैले लोकतन्त्रको संरक्षण गर्न न्यायपालिका, कार्यपालिका तथा व्यवस्थापिकाको आआफ्नै भूमिका र शक्ति पृथकीकरणको सिद्धान्त जन्मेको हो । तानाशाहहरू लोकतन्त्रको आधारस्तम्भ संस्थाहरू भत्काएर प्रणाली ध्वस्त पार्छन्, जसले गर्दा आफ्ना व्यक्तिगत सपना लाद्न सहज हुन्छ, कहिले राष्ट्रवादका नाममा तथा कहिले विकासका नाममा । र, कहिले चुनावका नाममा ।

पहिलो जनाआन्दोलन, २०४६ पछि, नेपालमा सबैभन्दा लामो समय गिरिजाप्रसाद कोइरालाको प्रधानमन्त्रीत्वकाल २०४८ साल जेठ १२ गतेदेखि २०५१ साल मंसिर १४ गतेसम्म जम्मा १ हजार २ सय ८४ दिन रह्यो । यस्तै, नेपालको इतिहासकै सबैभन्दा शक्तिशाली तथा करिब दुइतिहाइको सरकारका नेता प्रधानमन्त्री केपी शर्मा ओलीले २०७४ फागुन ३ गतेदेखि २०७७ पुस ५ गते संसद् भंग गर्दासम्म १ हजार ४० दिन शासन गरे । पुस ५ यताका दिनमा उनको सरकारको हैसियत स्पष्ट नभए तापनि त्यो पनि जोड्दा ओलीको शासन ११ सय दिन हाराहारी हुन आउँछ । सोमबार प्रधानमन्त्रीले तामझामका साथ आफ्नो सत्तारोहणको तेस्रो वर्षगाँठ मनाउँदै गर्दा उनले घोषणा गरेको वैशाख १७ र २७ मा चुनाव नहुने वातावरण बन्दै छ । तर मानौं चुनाव भयो भने पनि त्यसपछि आउने अर्को प्रधानमन्त्रीले उनले झैं तीन वर्षपछि मध्यावधिमा जाने निर्णय गरे के हुन्छ । प्रधानमन्त्रीको कार्यकाल पहिलो दुई वर्ष त वर्तमान संविधानले ‘लक’ गरिदिएको छ । त्यसपछि आफ्नै दल वा अन्य दलको दबाब खप्न नसकेर प्रधानमन्त्री चुनावमा जान चाहन्छन् । अर्थात्, प्रत्येक तीन वर्षमा अब नेपालमा चुनाव हुन्छ । के नेपालीले यस्तै राजनीतिक स्थिरता चाहेको हो ? होे भने संविधान संशोधन गरेर प्रत्येक तीन वर्षमा चुनाव गराउने व्यवस्था गर्दा के फरक पर्छ ।

अथवा मानौं, वर्तमान सरकार नै चुनावमा विजयी भयो । सत्तामा बसेर राज्यस्रोत दोहन गरेर चुनाव लड्नुको आफ्नै मजा छ । त्यसमाथि राज्यस्रोतको दोहन गरेर, राज्यकै पैसा खर्च गरेर वृद्धभत्ता ५ हजार बनाएर, वैध–अवैध पैसाको खोलो बगाएर चुनाव जित्न सकिन्छ भन्ने आकलन पनि देखिन्छ । यस्तै सांसदले आफ्नो निर्वाचन क्षेत्रमा खर्च गर्न पाउने रकम पनि सरकारले नागरिकले तिरेको करबाट दिने जुन गलत प्रथा बसालियो, त्यो पनि राज्यस्रोतको दोहन हो । नागरिकले तिरेको करबाट कुनै एउटा अमुक दलको कुनै अमुक नेताले जस लिनु तथा भोट तान्न गरिने यस्ता क्रियाकलापलाई स्थानीय पूर्वाधार साझेदारी कार्यक्रमजस्ता नाम दिँदैमा जायज हुँदैन । यसरी जबसम्म राज्यस्रोत प्रयोग गरेर चुनाव भइरहन्छ, तबसम्म चुनावी अंकगणित तलमाथि पार्न सहज हुन्छ । किनकि प्रजातन्त्रमा चेतनशील नागरिकको पनि एक भोट हो र नेताको हातबाट भोजभतेर तथा नगद लिएर हालिने पनि एउटै भोट हो । त्यसमाथि अशिक्षित तथा गरिब नागरिकका लागि तत्कालको नगद महत्वपूर्ण हुन्छ । किनकि उसलाई को नेता जितेर कस्तो नियम कानुन बनाउँछ भन्ने कुराले तत्काल कुनै सरोकार राख्दैन । त्यसैले कुनै पनि शासक आफ्ना नागरिकलाई गरिखाने बनाउन चाहन्नन्, गरिबीमै राख्न चाहन्छन् । नेपालमा बहुसंख्यक नागरिक गरिब नै रहिरहनु सत्ताको लागि फाइदाकारक छ । नारा ‘समृद्ध नेपाल : सुखी नेपाली‘ भए तापनि चुनाव जित्न ‘गरिब नेपाल :दुःखी नेपाली‘ फाइदाजनक हो । चतुर शासकले यति नबुझ्ने त कुरै भएन । राजनेता तथा शासकबीचको फरक पनि यही नै हो । शासक सत्तामा बसेर नागरिकले तिरेको कर दुरुपयोग गरेर नागरिकलाई नै प्रताडित गर्छ, संवैधानिक निकायमा आफ्नै सेवकहरू विराजमान गराउँछ, चुनाव जित्न राज्यका स्रोत तथा शक्तिको दुरुपयोग गर्छ, राष्ट्रभक्तिको गान गाउँछ, अनि आफू र आफ्नाको मात्रै विकास गर्छ । तर, राजनेता राष्ट्र कसरी बन्छ भन्ने चिन्तन गर्छ, सबै नागरिकको गरिखान पाउने अधिकारको संरक्षण गर्छ । संविधान तथा लोकतन्त्रको मूल्य–मान्यतामा एक इन्च पनि तलमाथि हुन दिँदैन । त्यसैले, लोकतन्त्र भनेको आवधिक चुनाव मात्रै होइन ।

मानौं चुनावपछि नेपाली कांग्रेसले दुइतिहाई ल्याएछ । त्यसपछि सभापति शेरबहादुर देउवाले अर्का वरिष्ठ नेता रामचन्द्र पौडेलले काम गर्न दिएनन् भनेर तीन वर्षमै मध्यावधिमा जाँदैनन् भन्ने कुनै ग्यारेन्टी छैन । वर्तमान प्रधानमन्त्री केपी शर्मा ओली र नेपाली कांगे्रसका सभापति तथा पूर्वप्रधानमन्त्री शेरबहादुर देउवा एकै सिक्काका दुइटा पाटा हुन् । त्यसकारण नेपाल अस्थिरता तथा अनिश्चितताको एउटा अर्को दुश्चक्रमा फस्दै छ । त्यसैले पनि यस पटकको सर्वोच्च अदालतको एउटा निर्णयले नेपालको इतिहासमा नै दूरगामी प्रभाव राख्ने देखिन्छ :

भनिन्छ, राजनीतिको अभीष्ट नागरिकको आर्थिक, सामजिक राजनीतिक विकास हो । सत्ता अंकगणितीय खेलमात्र हो । तर, नेपालका राजनीतिक दलहरूमा अझ विशेषतः केही नेतामा सत्ताको लोभ यति धेरै छ कि सत्ताका लागि देशलाई बन्धक बनाउने चलनमा क्रमभंगता आएन, नियमितता आकस्मिकताजस्तै भयो । हरेक नेता आफ्नै इच्छामा चुनाव गराउन चाहन्छ । मानौं चुनाव नै एउटा ब्रह्मास्त्र हो, लोकतन्त्र बचाउने । तर, चुनावको खर्च, तयारी तथा यसको विश्वसनीयता तथा पारदर्शिताका विषय झन् पेचिला छन् । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको बजेटमा सरकारले चुनाव गर्न खर्च छुट्ट्याएको छैन । किनकि चुनाव खर्च अरू खर्चजस्तो वर्षभरि भइरहने खर्च होइन, एउटा निश्चित अवधिमा अर्थात् एक–दुई महिनामा ह्वात्तै एकैपटक हुने खर्च हो । कोरोनाले थिलथिलो पारेको अर्थतन्त्र उठ्न कोसिस गर्नै लाग्दा सरकारले संसद् भंग गरेर चुनावको घोषणा गरेको छ । राजस्वले जेनतेन सरकारी कर्मचारीको तलब खान पुग्ने मुलुकमा विकास साझेदारहरूको सहयोगबिना हालसम्म कुनै चुनाव भएको छैन । विकास साझेदारहरू पनि यस्तो अनिश्चित समयमा आफू गाल पर्नबाट जोगिन खोजिहाल्छन् ।

सरकार आफूले घोषणा गरेको पुनरुत्थान कार्यक्रमअन्तर्गत कोभिड प्रभावित व्यवसायलाई पुनर्जीवन दिन ५० अर्ब तथा भ्याक्सिन खरिद गर्न करिब ४५ अर्ब थप रकमको खोजी गर्दै छ । आन्तरिक ऋण सरकारले पहिलो चौमासिकमै उठाइसकेको छ भने वैदेशिक अनुदान वा ऋण विगत केही वर्षदेखि घट्दै गएको छ । त्यसैले अन्त्यमा चुनावको करिब २५ अर्ब खर्च सरकारले विकास बजेट जबर्जस्ती रकमान्तर गरेर गर्छ । तर, नियमानुसार रकमान्तर सजिलो प्रक्रिया होइन, किनकि पुँजीगतमै रकमान्तर गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । स्थानीय तथा प्रदेशलाई दिइएको बजेट फिर्ता लिई निर्वाचन गर्न सकिन्छ, तर त्यो बजेट फिर्ता लिन पनि कानुनी कठिनाइ तथा बन्देजसरह नै छ ।

यसका साथै, नेपालमा पछिल्ला वर्षहरूमा चुनाव महँगो हुँदै गएको छ । चुनावका लागि टिकट पाएका तर खर्च गर्न नसकेर उम्मेदवारहरू चुनावमा जान नचाहेका अघिल्लो चुनावमा पनि देखिएको थियो । उम्मेदवारले गर्ने चुनाव खर्चको स्रोत अज्ञात छ । जसका कारण नीतिगत भ्रष्टाचार तथा अर्थतन्त्रमा विकृति बढेको छ । चुनावले बजारमा पैसा आउँछ, विदेशबाट रकम भित्रिन्छ, दूरदराजका गरिब परिवारसम्म पैसा पुग्छ, त्यसैले मध्यम तथा निम्न वर्गका लागि यो राम्रो अवसर हो भन्ने तर्क पनि गर्न सकिएला ।

तर, दुई–तीन महिनाका लागि बजारमा ह्वात्तै आउने पैसाको भेलले महँगी बेस्करी बढाउँछ र अन्त्यमा फेरि गरिब तथा विपन्न नै मारमा पर्छन् । हुन त गरिब र विपन्नको जीवनस्तर नसुध्रे पनि प्रधानमन्त्रीले आफ्नो तीनवर्षे कार्यकालको फेहरिस्तमा अर्थतन्त्रले गति लिन थालेको, आर्थिक क्रियाकलाप बढेको जस्ता कारणले चालू आर्थिक वर्षको आर्थिक वृद्धिदर ५.५ प्रतिशतको हुने र अर्काे वर्ष १५ औं योजनाले लक्ष्य लिएअनुसार १० प्रतिशतको हुने दावी गरेका छन् । कुनै समय ‘एकां लज्जां परित्यज्य, सर्वत्र विजयी भवेत्’ भनिन्थ्यो होला, तर आजकाल लाज त्याग गरेपछि मानव नै रहिन्न, हेक्का रहोस् ।

Per capita incomes to shrink in all regions : World Bank

The swift and massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have plunged the global economy into a severe contraction. According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2 this year representing the deepest recession since the second World War, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870
The World Bank – in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects – also revealed that economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7 per cent in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted. “Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5 per cent this year, their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years.”
Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6 per cent, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year, it reads, adding that the blow is hitting hardest in countries, where the pandemic has been the most severe and where there is heavy reliance on global trade, tourism, commodity exports, and external financing. “While the magnitude of disruption will vary from region to region, all EMDEs have vulnerabilities that are magnified by external shocks.”
Moreover, interruptions in schooling and primary healthcare access are likely to have lasting impacts on human capital development.
“This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges,” said World Bank Group vice president for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. “Our first order of business is to address the global health and economic emergency,” Pazarbasioglu said, adding, “Beyond that, the global community must unite to find ways to rebuild as robust a recovery as possible to prevent more people from falling into poverty and unemployment.”
Under the baseline forecast – which assumes that the pandemic recedes sufficiently to allow the lifting of domestic mitigation measures by mid-year in advanced economies and a bit later in EMDEs, that adverse global spillovers ease during the second half of the year, and that dislocations in financial markets are not long-lasting – global growth is forecast to rebound to 4.2 per cent in 2021, as advanced economies grow by 3.9 per cent and EMDEs bounce back by 4.6 per cent. However, the outlook is highly uncertain and downside risks are predominant, including the possibility of a more protracted pandemic, financial upheaval, and retreat from global trade and supply linkages. A downside scenario could lead the global economy to shrink by as much as 8 per cent this year, followed by a sluggish recovery in 2021 of just over 1 per cent, with output in EMDEs contracting by almost 5 per cent this year.
“The Covid-19 recession is singular in many respects and is likely to be the deepest one in advanced economies since the second World War and the first output contraction in emerging and developing economies in at least the past six decades,” said World Bank Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose. “The current episode has already seen by far the fastest and steepest downgrades in global growth forecasts on record,” Kose said, “If the past is any guide, there may be further growth downgrades in store, implying that policymakers may need to be ready to employ additional measures to support activity.”
The pandemic highlights the urgent need for health and economic policy action, including global cooperation, to cushion its consequences, protect vulnerable populations, and strengthen countries’ capacities to prevent and deal with similar events in the future. It is critically important for emerging market and developing economies, which are particularly vulnerable, to strengthen public health systems, address challenges posed by informality and limited safety nets, and enact reforms to generate strong and sustainable growth once the crisis passes.
Emerging market and developing economies with available fiscal space and affordable financing conditions could consider additional stimulus if the effects of the pandemic persist. This should be accompanied by measures to help credibly restore medium-term fiscal sustainability, including those that strengthen fiscal frameworks, increase domestic revenue mobilization and spending efficiency, and raise fiscal and debt transparency, the World Bank press note reads, adding that the transparency of all government financial commitments, debt-like instruments and investments is a key step in creating an attractive investment climate and could make substantial progress this year.

New UNCTAD nowcast shows international trade, global economy cooling down

After a continued surge last year, global trade and economic output have stagnated this year, according to UNCTAD's nowcast published today in the 2019 Handbook of Statistics.
Merchandise trade is predicted to drop by 2.4 per cent to $19 trillion, after significant growth rates in 2018 (9.7 per cent) and 2017 (10.7 per cent). Trade in services is predicted to only increase by 2.7 per cent to $6 trillion, a considerable deceleration from 7.7 per cent in 2018 and 7.9 per cent in 2017.
Real global economic output – gross domestic product – is now expected to grow by 2.3 per cent this year, 0.7 percentage points less than last year. “We see consistency across a range of indicators, the global economy is slowing," said UNCTAD’s chief statistician Steve MacFeely.
Last year, world merchandise trade increased by 2.3 per cent in volume terms. The 9.7 per cent increase in values could to a large extent be attributed to changes in prices. For example, fuel prices recorded substantial growth, year-on-year, during all the months of 2018, a trend that was reversed at the beginning of 2019, as UNCTAD's free market commodity price index shows.
Maritime transport lost momentum in 2018. World seaborne trade volumes rose by only 2.7 per cent, compared with 4.7 per cent in 2017, and port container traffic grew by 4.7 per cent, two percentage points less than the year before.
UNCTAD's 2019 Handbook of Statistics depicts these and other major trends in statistics relevant to international trade and development, summarising the broad spectrum of statistics maintained in the online database UNCTADstat.
"The handbook is designed to supply a broad range of users, from all regions of the world and working in different domains, be they policymakers, businesses, researchers, journalists or the person on the street who is interested in global economic and social affairs, with high-quality, impartial and easily readable information on latest trends and patterns,” MacFeely said.
The handbook boasts numerous maps, figures, infographics and tables, accompanied by descriptive text, all of which reveal interesting, sometimes curious, recent developments, such as foreign direct investment from the US turning into negative in 2018. It also shows the rising merchandise trade deficit of the developed economies as a group since 2016 and a growing spread of the world supply of manufactured goods by exporting economies over the last two years.
The 2019 edition also extends to new domains, such as statistics on port calls and the time ships spent on ports.

ADB trims growth forecasts as Asia's biggest economies slow

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed its forecasts for economic growth in developing Asia this year and next year as growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India is weighed down by both external and domestic factors.
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2019 Update released in September, ADB now expects gross domestic product (GDP) in the region to expand 5.2 per cent in both 2019 and 2020, down from the September forecast of 5.4 per cent growth this year and 5.5 per cent next year.
“While growth rates are still solid in developing Asia, persistent trade tensions have taken a toll on the region and are still the biggest risk to the longer-term economic outlook,” ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada said, adding that domestic investment is also weakening in many countries, as business sentiment has declined. “Inflation, on the other hand, is ticking up on the back of higher food prices, as African swine fever has raised pork prices significantly.”
The supplement forecasts inflation of 2.8 per cent in 2019 and 3.1 per cent in 2020, up from the September prediction that prices would rise by 2.7 per cent this year and next.
Hong Kong, China, already in technical recession, will see severe downward pressures persist possibly into 2020. The economy is now expected to contract by 1.2 per cent this year and grow by 0.3 per cent next year.
In South Asia, India’s growth is now seen at a slower 5.1 per cent in fiscal year 2019 as the foundering of a major nonbanking financial company in 2018 led to a rise in risk aversion in the financial sector and a credit crunch. Also, consumption was affected by slow job growth and rural distress aggravated by a poor harvest. Growth should pick up to 6.5 per cent in fiscal year 2020 with supportive policies. In September, ADB forecast India’s GDP to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2019 and 7.2 per cent in 2020.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. In 2018, it made commitments of new loans and grants amounting to $21.6 billion. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members, 49 from the region.

Regional UN meeting presents new research on market dynamics of agriculture mechanisation

Experts at a regional meeting in Chitwan unveiled new analysis on the links between agricultural mechanisation and the market with implications on reducing rural poverty in the Asia-Pacific region.
The preliminary findings of research – discussed at the fifth member meeting of the Regional Council of Agricultural Machinery Associations in Asia and the Pacific (ReCAMA) and co-organised by the Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Mechanisation (CSAM) of the United Nations (UN) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) with the Nepal Agricultural Machinery Entrepreneurs’ Association (NAMEA) – also included a research paper Mechanisation of Agriculture: Market Dynamics of Selected Member Countries of ReCAMA commissioned in 2019. The study leverages expertise on both sustainable agriculture and commerce to analyse market dynamics and forecast needs for agricultural machinery, in order to optimise agricultural production and innovation in the region.
The meeting also brought together policymakers, academics, researchers and private sector and industry association representatives to make concrete decisions on the council’s direction promoting the availability, adoption and sustainable use of agricultural machinery in the region through a demand-driven model.
Commenting on the event, head of CSAM Li Yutong said that sustainable and balanced development of agricultural mechanisation requires programmes, incentives and assistance from both national associations and the private sector. “Of vital importance is an enabling policy landscape as well as a network and close-knit community where information is shared, partnerships are developed, and valuable cooperation is catalysed, which can optimise the engagement and contribution of all entities towards advancement of sustainable agricultural mechanisation.”
The continuing work of ReCAMA through regional cooperation and agricultural development has emerged as an important channel for CSAM to contribute towards Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger), Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and Goal 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
ReCAMA was established in 2014 as the outcome of the first Regional Forum on Sustainable Agricultural Mechanization in Asia and the Pacific held in 2013. The ReCAMA aims to enhance the exchange of knowledge and information, strengthen the capability of agricultural machinery associations at both regional level and national level, and conduct capacity building programmes to promote the idea of sustainable agricultural mechanisation. ReCAMA has 20 member associations from 14 countries till now.

Nepal less competitive economy in South Asia

Nepal still is the third competitive economy in the South Asia after India, Sri Lanka snd Bangladesh, though with 51.9 score, Nepal has stepped up by one rank – to to 108 – from last year, in the Global Competitiveness Index 2019. Nepal ranked at 109 with 50.8 score in the Global Competitiveness Index 2018.
Nepal was the 109th most competitive nation in the world out of 140 countries ranked in the 2018 edition of the Global Competitiveness Report. Competitiveness rank in Nepal averaged 115.42 in a decade – from 2007 until 2018 – reaching an all time high of 130 in 2011 and a record low of 100 in 2016.
Likewise, In South Asia, India ranks in 68th followed by Sri Lanka (the most improved country in the region at 84th), Bangladesh (105th), Bhutan (82-2018 ), Nepal (108th) and Pakistan (110th). India has moved down 10 places to rank 68th on an annual global competitiveness index, largely due to improvements witnessed by several other economies, while Singapore has replaced the US as the world's most competitive economy.
Despite recording three successive years of high economic growth, macro-economic stability and average annual gross domestic product growth of 4 per cent in the past decade, Nepal ranks 108th out of 141 economies and is the worst performer in South Asian region in terms of competitiveness, the report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) revealed. The annual assessment report, Global Competitive Report 2019 published today measures national competitiveness based on the state of institutions, policies and factors that determine an economy’s productivity.
Out of the total competitiveness score of 100 or the ‘frontier’ where productivity constraints cease to exist, Nepal has gained 51.6 points – far below India (68th) with 61.4 points and Srilanka (84th) with 57.1 points – and the global average of 60 points.
The economy performed poorly in terms of innovation capability, information, communication and technology adoption, product market development, judicial independence and government’s long-term vision, iut reads, adding that Nepal has performed better in indicators such as macro-economic stability, road connectivity, electricity access and supply, despite its low rank.
The report appears amid fears of slowing economic growth in Nepal owing to a drop in manufacturing and foreign direct investment, despite government claims that it has improved the investment climate by reforming over a dozen laws in a year. Figures show that the country's investment outlook has remained bleak despite political and macroeconomic stability. According to the central bank, the inflow of foreign investment plummeted by 25 per cent to Rs 13.07 billion in the last fiscal year from Rs 17.5 billion in 2017-18. Likewise, industry registrations fell to 436 in the last fiscal year from 498 in the previous year, the total committed investment dropped to Rs 282 billion from Rs 350 billion in the previous year, and foreign direct investment (FDI) pledges also nosedived to Rs 24 billion from Rs 56 billion, according to the Department of Industry.
The 2019 index that offers insight into economic prospects ranks 141 economies accounting for 99 per cent of the world’s GDP based on 103 factors of productivity related to 12 pillars of infrastructure, institutions, ICT adoption, macroeconomic stability, health, skills, product market, labour market, financial system, market size, business dynamism, innovation and capability.
According to the World Economic Forum, the report demonstrates that despite central banks injecting nearly $10 trillion into the global economy 10 years on from the financial crisis, productivity-enhancing investments such as new infrastructure, research and development and skills development in the current and future workforce have been suboptimal.
“The global economy is ill-prepared for a downturn after a lost decade for productivity-enhancing measures,” the report reads, adding that monetary policy may have run out of steam and some countries are facing a liquidity trap. “Furthermore, the geopolitical context is more challenging than in 2007, with gridlock in the international governance system, and an escalating trade and geopolitical tensions fuelling uncertainty, which holds back investments, and increases the risk of supply shocks.”
According to the report, Asia-Pacific is the most competitive region in the world with Singapore as the most competitive economy, followed closely by economies in Europe and North America and Nordic countries are among the world’s most technologically advanced, innovative and dynamic while also providing better living conditions and social protection.
With a score of 84.8 out of 100, Singapore is the country closest to the frontier of competitiveness
Other G20 economies in the top 10 include the United States (2nd), Japan (6th), Germany (7th) and the United Kingdom (9th) while Argentina (83rd, down two places) is the lowest ranked among G20 countries
The Global Competitiveness Report 2019: How to end a lost decade of productivity growth paints a gloomy picture, yet it also shows that those countries with a holistic approach to socio-economic challenges, look set to get ahead in the race to the frontier.
Persistent weaknesses in the drivers of productivity growth are among the principal culprits. In advanced, emerging and developing economies, productivity growth started slowing in 2000 and decelerated further after the crisis. Between 2011 and 2016, ‘total factor productivity growth’ – or the combined growth of inputs, like resources and labour, and outputs – grew by 0.3 per cent in advanced economies and 1.3 per cent in emerging and developing economies.

Paddy harvest to hit record high

Paddy harvest – in the current fiscal year – is expected to hit a record high of 5.61 million tonnes this fiscal year due to better-than-expected rainfall, according to the Agriculture Ministry. The bumper crop is expected 9 per cent increase from last fiscal year, reveals the preliminary statistics.
The statistics reveals that Nepal’s paddy productivity is expected to increase to a record high of 3.8 tonnes per hectare in the current fiscal year, up from 3.5 tonnes in the last fiscal year 2017-18. The country’s average productivity is 3 tonnes per hectare.
Based on the average price of Rs 21 per kg, the current fiscal year’s projected paddy harvest is worth more than Rs115 billion, excluding the value of byproducts like straw and bran which reaches billions of rupees, the ministry claims.
The bumper growth in paddy – the most common cereal crop – production is also expected to increase the agriculture sector’s growth in the current fiscal year pushing the overall GDP growth up as the agriculture contributes to around 30 per cent to the economic growth. The government – through the budget – has tragetted to achieve 8 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal year.

The world's $80 trillion economy

The latest estimate from the World Bank puts global GDP at roughly $80 trillion in nominal terms for 2017. The world’s top 10 economies, which together combine for a whopping two-thirds of global GDP. In nominal terms, the US still has the largest GDP at $19.4 trillion, making up 24.4 per cent of the world economy.
While China’s economy is far behind in nominal terms at $12.2 trillion, the Chinese economy has been the world’s largest when adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) since 2016.
The next two largest economies are Japan ($4.9 trillion) and Germany ($4.6 trillion) – and when added to the US and China, the top four economies combined account for over 50 per cent of the world economy.
Over recent years, the list of top economies hasn’t changed much from 18 months ago.
India has now passed France in nominal terms with a $2.6 trillion economy, which is about 3.3 per cent of the global total. In the most recent quarter, Indian GDP growth saw its highest growth rate in two years at about 8.2 per cent.
Brazil, despite its very recent economic woes, surpassed Italy in GDP rankings to take the 8th spot overall. Likewise, Turkey has surpassed The Netherlands to become the world’s 17th largest economy, and Saudi Arabia has jumped past Switzerland to claim the 19th spot.

WTO downgrades outlook for global trade as risks accumulate

Trade will continue to expand but at a more moderate pace than previously forecast. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) anticipates growth in merchandise trade volume of 3.9 per cent in 2018, with trade expansion slowing further to 3.7 per cent in 2019.
The new forecast for 2018 is below the WTO's April 12 estimate of 4.4 per cent but falls within the 3.1 per cent to 5.5 per cent growth range indicated at that time. Trade growth in 2018 is now most likely to fall within a range from 3.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent, the global trade regime reported.
Some of the downside risks identified in the April press release have since materialised, most notably a rise in actual and proposed trade measures targeting a variety of exports from large economies. The direct economic effects of these measures have been modest to date but the uncertainty they generate may already be having an impact through reduced investment spending. Monetary policy tightening in developed economies has also contributed to volatility in exchange rates and may continue to do so in the coming months.
WTO director general Roberto Azevêdo said, "While trade growth remains strong, this downgrade reflects the heightened tensions that we are seeing between major trading partners."
"More than ever, it is critical for governments to work through their differences and show restraint," he said, adding that the WTO will continue to support those efforts and ensure that trade remains a driver of better living standards, growth and job creation around the globe.
The updated trade forecast is based on expectations of world real GDP growth at market exchange rates of 3.1 per cent in 2018 and 2.9 per cent in 2019. This implies a ratio of trade growth to GDP growth of 1.3 in both years.
Trade policy measures are far from the only risk to the forecast. Developing and emerging economies could experience capital outflows and financial contagion as developed countries raise interest rates, with negative consequences for trade. Geopolitical tensions could threaten resource supplies and upset production networks in certain regions. Finally, structural factors such as the rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from investment and toward consumption are still present and could weigh on import demand due to the high import content of investment. Overall, risks to the forecast are considerable and heavily weighted to the downside.

Asia has the policy tools to address pockets of vulnerability: Report

Policymakers in Asia and the Pacific have a wide range of options at their disposal to ensure that heightened global uncertainty due to monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies and rising global trade tensions does not undermine decades of continuous growth, according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.
The special theme chapter in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018 Update examines how the region can navigate the uncertain global environment by deploying well-coordinated and proactive policies designed to shore up macroeconomic stability. ADO is ADB’s flagship economic publication.
"Developing Asia has prospered since the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago, but new challenges pose threats to its resilience and growth,” said ADB’s chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada. "Multiple pockets of vulnerability can be managed, however, if they are closely monitored and the policies to tackle them are well designed and carefully implemented."
Emerging pockets of vulnerability that can undermine stability include elevated debt levels, volatile capital flows, sharp currency depreciation, high housing prices, and cross-border contagion. Counter cyclical fiscal policies can help stabilize an economy but require ample fiscal space, the report notes, adding that besides reducing debt or widening the tax base, governments can invest in counter cyclical fiscal buffers such as well-governed sovereign wealth funds in resource rich economies, and in social safety nets to protect vulnerable communities. "Monetary policy should pay attention to the credit cycle as well as the business cycle since the two cycles do not always coincide."
A more flexible exchange rate can better insulate economies against adverse external shocks but monetary authorities may need to take actions to smooth the large volatilities. Another option is to set controls on capital flows, which can reduce pressure on the exchange rate. Macro-prudential policies such as caps on loan to value and debt to income have become more popular since the Global Financial Crisis. Asia became the world’s most intensive user of macroprudential measures, particularly to stabilise housing markets, the report notes.
In addition to such options, measures to strengthen macroeconomic and other fundamentals remain important. Continued efforts are needed to ensure sound fiscal policy, independent central banks which engage in domestic policy coordination, deep financial sectors, market-oriented structural reforms, and adequate social safety nets.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members; 48 from the region. In 2017, ADB operations totaled $32.2 billion, including $11.9 billion in cofinancing.