Floods damage ready-to-harvest paddy worth Rs 8.21 billion

Farmers lost an estimated Rs 8.21 billion worth paddy due to floods triggered by the torrential rain after monsoon last week.

A preliminary study report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD) has estimated some 269,842 tonnes of paddy across the country. According to the ministry, the 19 districts of six provinces lost their produce.

According to the ministry, Lumbini Province suffered the largest amount of loss by the disaster as it lost 161,223 tonnes of ready to harvest paddy that is worth Rs 4.51 billion. Likewise, Kailali and Kanchanpur districts of the Sudurpaschim Province also lost an estimated Rs 1.91 billion worth paddy. "The flood damaged 68,400 tonnes of paddy in the province," according to the ministry.

Province 1 also suffered a damage of some 28,469 tonnes of the paddy as the farmers in Morang, Jhapa and Sunsari districts of the province were hit hard by the disaster. "These three districts lost an estimated Rs 800 million worth paddy crop," the ministry confirmed, adding that the Province 2 lost Rs 560 million worth paddy, whereas Gandagi and Karnali province each lost Rs 130 million worth paddy crop.

Rainfall damages paddy crops

The incessant rainfall since Sunday destroyed the harvest-ready paddy crops in several districts across the country.

As the paddy contributes largest chunk in the agriculture gross domestic production (AGDP), the damage is also going to hit the economic growth, apart from the food shortage looming large due to unseasonal rainfall. It was predicted to have a good paddy harvest this season due to adequate monsoon rainfall but the recent rains is going to hit rice output.

Some farmers have just recently cut the paddy crops and was planning to thresh them before the rainfall damaged the crops, while others were planning to harvest, and the crops are submerged in rainwaters, damaging the crops. 

Districts in Sudurpaschim, Lumbini, Karnali and Gandaki provinces are hit hard by the unseasonal rainfall. The rainfall also damaged paddy crops in Baitadi, Kapilvastu, Banke, Bardiya, Rupandehi, Dang, Jumla, Surkhet, Kaski, Nawalparasi (East), Syangja, Parbat and Tanahun, whereas many districts in province 2 also have been flooded, displacing the locals.

Despite lack of fertilizer, paddy production increases

 Compared to last year, paddy production has increased by 70,000 metric tonnes due to favourable weather and timely plantation this year, though the government failed to provide chemical fertilizer on time for paddy plantation. Despite increased paddy production, Nepal has imported Rs 18 billion worth rice in the five months of the current fiscal year.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD), some 5.6 million metric tonnes of paddy has been produced in the current fiscal year 2020-21. A fiscal year ago, in 2019/20, some 5.51 million metric tonnes of paddy was produced, the ministry claimed, adding that the plantation area of paddy has also increased to about 1.5 million hectares.

Agriculture contributes to about 27 per cent to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whereas paddy contributes about seven per cent to that. “Paddy production has increased due to timely rain and plantation,” the ministry assumed, adding that farmers were able to plant paddy on time due to timely rains since May. “Had the government been able to provide fertilizers, the production would have been increased even more.”

The year that witness timely rain automatically sees increased agriculture production as almost all agriculture largely depends on rain water due to the lack of an efficient irrigation system in the country. But paddy is cultivated in Kachankawal in Jhapa at an altitude of 60 meters to Chumchaur in Jumla at an altitude of 3,050 meters, in Nepal.

The government has been running a fine and fragrant paddy production promotion programme to increase production since years. Likewise, the government has set up paddy pockets zones and super zones in different districts under the Prime Minister Agriculture Modernisation Project (PMAMP).

Paddy production could be increased by even 15 per cent to 25 per cent, if government ensures high quality seeds, chemical fertilizers and adequate irrigation in time, according to the farmers.

Paddy output drops by 1 per cent

Against the government’s projection of 6 million tones output in the current fiscal year 2019-20, paddy production dropped by 1.1 percentage point – some 59,133 tonnes – to 5.55 million tonnes compared to the record high production of 5.61 million metric tonnes last fiscal year.
Releasing an initial estimate of paddy harvest, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development confirmed that the paddy output declined by 59,000 tonnes in the current fiscal year from the record high production of 5.61 million tonnes in the last fiscal year 2018-19.
The ministry attributed barren land due to low plantation coverage, delay in monsoon arrival, damage wrought by insects to the major cereal crops and problem related to seeds to the lower output of the paddy, a press note of the ministry reads, adding that the paddy productivity has, however, gone up by 1.17 per cent to 3,804 kg per hectare from 3,760 kg per hectare in the last fiscal year. “Though, the production figure is less compared to the last fiscal year, the current fiscal year has recorded the second highest paddy output, and also the record high in terms of productivity despite a series of misfortunes ranging from a delayed monsoon, fertiliser shortage and supply of fake seeds to an armyworm invasion, apart from supply of faulty Garima brand paddy.
The faulty Garima brand paddy did not yield rice grains across the country including in Chitwan, Rautahat, Nawalparasi, Nuwakot, Lamjung, Gorkha and Tanahun districts. The Garima brand paddy was planted across 1,500 hectares of land, affecting production of almost 8,500 tonnes of paddy.
Compared to the last fiscal year, paddy production has dropped in Province 2, Province 3, Gandaki Province and Lumbini Province, while the output has increased slightly in other provinces. Paddy production has increased by 0.6 per cent each in Province 1 and Karnali Province to 1.24 million tonnes and 134,407 metric tonnes, respectively. Similarly, paddy output has increased by 6.7 per cent compared to last year’s production in Sudurpaschim Province to 646,059 metric tonnes. “Paddy production this year dropped by five per cent to 1.42 million tonnes in Province 2, some 2.2 per cent to 510,210 metric tonnes in Province 3, some 4.4 per cent to 408,737 tonnes in Gandaki Province and 0.3 per cent to 1.18 million tonnes in Lumbini Province,” the press note reads.
The lower paddy production is going to hit the economic growth as the agriculture contributes to around 28 per cent in the gross domestic production (GDP), and paddy contributes highest to the agriculture gross domestic production (AGDP). The agro experts thus blamed government for manipulating the data to show that its ambitious growth target of 8.5 per cent or something close was achievable.
Likewise, the experts are also surprised by this year's production data as they have also estimated the paddy crop could drop by at least 8 per cent and the ministry had also initially estimated that production could drop by 7 per cent to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year.

Paddy Outout (metric tonnes)
Provinces Last FY         This FY 
Province 1 1,237,952 1,245,545
Province 2 1,495,044 1,420,436
Province 3 521,446         510,201
Gandaki         427,689         408,737
Lumbini 1,188,675 1,185,493
Karnali 133,579         134,407
Sudurpaschim 605,626         646,059
Total 5,610,011 5,550,878
Source: MoALD

Paddy production likely to drop

The total paddy production is estimated to be 5,431,549 Metric Tonne (MT) this year – representing some 1.7 per cent decrease compared last year, when the paddy production posted some 5.6 million MT. “The total area of paddy planted also decreased slightly compared to the last year, as it has been estimated to be 1,480,288 hectares this year against 1,491,744 hectares in 2018,” according to a publication that is a joint product of the Ministry of Agricultural and Livestock Development, the World Food Programme, and the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) as part of the Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP).
“However, the forecasted land productivity is estimated to be 3.67 MT per hectare. The yield estimates have a prediction uncertainty of ±7.5 per cent,” it reads. “Although the onset of the monsoon was delayed – late mid-June – average rainfall across the country before the onset of the monsoon was close to normal.”
Heavy rainfall across the country’s Terai lowlands on July 11-12 led to extensive flooding, which damaged large areas of cultivation thereby slightly decreasing paddy production,” it reads.
According to the real time stations data provided by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, pre-monsoon rainfall exceeded 30-years-of-normal in the eastern and central parts of Nepal, while it was lower than average in the Western part of the country. “Eastern Terai received above average rainfall during the monsoon period that was mainly concentrated during the mid-July leading to excessive flooding,” it reads, adding that Central and Eastern regions received rainfall lower below their 30-year averages during the monsoon months.
Under the research theme on Climate Risk Management, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) developed a crop yield-forecasting tool customised for the South Asia Region known as the CCAFS Regional Agriculture Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT). CCAFS is a strategic partnership of CGIAR and Future Earth, led by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), which conducts research to identify and address the most important interactions, synergies and tradeoffs between climate change, agriculture and food security.
CRAFT uses historical databases of weather and crop yields and current weather to estimate yields of various crops. The yield forecasting depends on data from various sources such as meteorological data – rainfall, temperature, humidity, bright sunshine hours, wind speed, wet spell etc – agro-meteorological data (phenology), soil data (water holding capacity), remote sensing data and agricultural statistics.
CRAFT simulates plant-weather-soil interactions in quantitative terms and predicts the crop yield over a given area, prior to harvest, provided no extreme (statistically infrequent) conditions occur. These models are based on a ‘common sense’ assumption that weather conditions are the main factor behind the inter-annual (short term) variations for the de-trended crop yield series.

Paddy plantation on 94 per cent land

Though, the paddy plantation has decreased, albeit a little, compared to the last year, the plantation has been completed on 94.42 per cent – this year – of the total 1.37 million hectares of arable land across the country, claimed the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD).
“Compared to the same period last year, paddy plantation this year has declined by 0.96 percentage point,” the ministry informed, adding that paddy plantation had been completed on 95.39 per cent of arable land by this time in the last fiscal year.
However, the country could still see significant drop in production due to delayed monsoon, shortage of chemical fertilizer, shrinking paddy fields and irregular rainfall in most of the paddy producing districts, according to the agriculture experts. “The transplantation period is almost over.”
A possible drop in production may hamper the government's target of achieving an economic growth of 8.5 per cent this fiscal year as the gross domestic product (GDP) largely depends on the performance of the agriculture sector – that contributes to one third of the total economy – and paddy production in particular as the paddy alone contributes to 6 per cent to the GDP. “Paddy production has over 20 per cent contribution to the total agricultural production.”
“Paddy plantation has been carried out across 257,938 hectares of arable land in Province 1, where paddy plantation was completed on 260,552 hectares last fiscal year,” the ministry said, the plantation area in Province 2 has however increased this year. Late monsoon benefitted the Tarai region this year, and increased the paddy plantation, albeit very less remarkably. Though, the heavy rainfall caused landslides and floods but due to the late monsoon, paddy plantation was started late in Province 2, where paddy plantation has been completed across 341,160 hectares of arable land, while in the same period last year it was completed on 340,658 hectares.
Similarly, the Province 3 and Gandaki Province witnessed paddy plantation across 111,784 hectares and 96,279 hectares of land, respectively. But, last year during the same period, paddy plantation was completed across 108,632 hectares of land in Province 3 and 104,894 hectares in Gandaki Province.
Likewise, paddy plantation in Province 5 has been completed on 286,572 hectares of land while in the same period last year plantation was completed on 292,038 hectares. Karnali Province witnessed paddy plantation on 36,910 hectares of land, while last year it stood at 37,767 hectares. Similarly, paddy plantation has been done on 164,639 hectares of land in Sudurpaschim Province, while in the same period of last fiscal it stood at 163,960 hectares.
According to the ministry, the paddy acreage shrank to 1.37 million hectares this year, a sizeable reduction from last year’s 1.55 million hectares. Rapid unplanned urbanisation and road construction have been attributed to the decline in the land available for paddy production. But arable land has been shrinking by around 2 per cent annually, according to Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations (UN).
In terms of geography, paddy plantation has been completed across 47,194 hectares of arable land in the High-hills, 318,244 hectares in Mid-hills and 929,843 hectares of arable land in the Tarai, the ministry claimed.
Nepal witnessed a record high paddy harvest of 5.61 million tonnes with an all-time high productivity of 3.8 tonnes per hectare, in the fiscal year 2018-19.

Paddy plantation completed on 64 per cent of arable land

Though, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD) has been claiming the production will not be affected, paddy plantation has been carried out on 63.79 per cent of 1.37 million hectares of arable land across the country as of today.
According to the ministry, the plantation data is over eight percentage point less than that in the same period of last year. “Paddy plantation has been completed on 71.96 per cent of arable land during same period of last year,” the ministry informed, adding that this year, late monsoon and heavy rainfall hit the paddy plantation hard. “The paddy plantation has been carried out across 56.13 per cent of arable land in Province 1, some 50.48 per cent in Province 2, some 69.18 per cent in Province 3, some 79.28 per cent in Gandaki Province, some 63.48 per cent in Province 5, some 90.13 per cent in Karnali Province and some 86.62 per cent of arable land in Sudurpaschim Province.”
Paddy plantation has been completed across 75 per cent of arable land in the high-hills, some 72.86 per cent in mid-hills and some 60 per cent of arable land in the Tarai, the ministry claimed; adding that this year the government is more focused on increasing productivity rather than the quantity of production.
Paddy productivity stands at 3.76 tonnes per hectare currently, though the government has targeted to increase it to four tonnes per hectare this year. “The ministry had signed a five-year work plan (2018-2023) with International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) of the Philippines to work jointly in seven sectors and 16 major projects for development of agricultural sector.”
Paddy contributes to over 20 per cent to the total agricultural production, whereas agriculture sector contributes to around 27 per cent to the national gross domestic product (GDP).

Nepal Krishi, Bayer BioScience to pilot hybrid paddy seeds project

Nepal Krishi Company and Bayer BioScience of India signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to begin a pilot project to use two hybrid paddy seeds this summer which have the potential to double productivity.
The use of hybrid seeds by farmers to grow paddy is insignificant compared to 90 per cent for vegetable cultivation, they claimed.
Morang-based Nepal Krishi Company, which is working with farmers’ groups for commercial production of cereal crops, will be using Arize 6444 Gold and Arize Idea hybrids as per the agreement.
Likewise, managing director of Buddha Air Birendra Bahadur Basnet, who is also a board member of Nepal Krishi Company, said that he is amazed by the productivity when Arize 6444 Gold was tested in the field last year. “We will see the result, the actual cost of production and productivity, of the hybrid varieties after four months,” he said, adding that the paddy planting season in Nepal normally begins in June. “It’s not only using hybrid seeds but also bringing advanced paddy cultivation technology to Nepal.”
Nepal Krishi Company will be piloting these hybrid varieties on 70 bighas of land by distributing 100 kg of seeds to farmers. There will be a demonstration plot of 20 bighas – known as centre for excellence –  where paddy will be cultivated with the latest technology and tools, the company said.
According to business unit head of Bayer BioScience Surendra Prajapati, these hybrid seeds are free from ‘bacterial leaf blight’ disease that causes yield losses in the range of 20 per cent to 60 per cent annually.
The disease can afflict rice plants in any of the growing stages and cause visible wilting of the seedlings and yellowing and drying of the leaves. Nearly 33 rice seedlings of these varieties should be transplanted in a one square metre area. “They are stress tolerant as well,” he said.
Prajapati said that Arize 6444 Gold is India’s highest selling hybrid rice seed and 20,000 tonnes of this variety are sowed across Asia. The ideal harvest time is between 135 and 140 days after planting. “In Uttar Pradesh, the maximum productivity of this variety was recorded at 13.7 tonnes per hectare,” he said, adding that a multi-location testing of these two varieties was conducted before being registered by the Nepal Agricultural Research Council.
According to Prajapati, the productivity of Arize 6444 Gold was recorded at 8-tonne per hectare in Kapilvastu. Arize Idea is a short slender grain or fine rice having ‘excellent’ cooking quality, the company said. The ideal harvest time is between 125 and 130 days after planting, and it yields 20 per cent to 25 per cent more grain that other varieties.
Likewise, senior scientist and Nepal representative of the International Rice Research Institute Krishna Dev Joshi said that Nepal would benefit greatly if hybrid paddy seeds are produced in Nepal. “There are only a few hybrid seeds of paddy registered in Nepal, as a result, farmers are bringing them through the porous border with India,” he said, adding that as productivity is double, more and more farmers are being attracted towards hybrid varieties. “The government should promote the production of hybrids in Nepal to increase production in order to feed the growing population.”
Hybrids have a higher yielding ability of 15 per cent to 25 per cent compared to open pollinated varieties, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development. “For this reason, there is an increasing trend of using hybrids among farmers.” The first hybrid variety officially released in Nepal was maize (Gaurav) in 2004. However, it was not successful due to the non-synchronisation nature of inbred lines.
A hybrid variety of tomato (Srijana) was registered in 2010. Recently, hybrid maize and paddy seeds are also increasingly becoming popular among farmers in the Tarai and lower hills. Many of them are imported, the ministry said.
The government’s National Seed Vision 2013-25 has envisaged developing and promoting 40 hybrids – 20 vegetable hybrid seeds, 12 maize hybrids and eight paddy hybrids – by 2025 to meet the growing domestic demand and also as an import substitution measure. The private sector too is expected to develop and promote 20 hybrids, 10 vegetable, five maize and five paddy hybrids.

Wheat harvest expected to set new record

Wheat harvest – in the current fiscal year – is expected to set a new record as it is projected to exceed 2 million tonnes due to good rainfall in the season. The record wheat crop follows a bumper paddy harvest last summer.
Though, the government is planning to announce crop production estimates for the current fiscal year 2018-19 soon, wheat – the country’s third most common cereal crop after paddy and maize – harvest is expected to record a 7 per cent growth this year largely due to ‘good winter’ rainfall across the country, according Agriculture Ministry.
The good harvest of cereal crops is expected to not only increase farmer incomes and reduce rice import bill but also bring the inflation down. It will also push the economic growth because agriculture contributed to around 30 per cent to the gross domestic production (GDP). Wheat accounts for more than 7 per cent of the Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (AGDP), according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
The bumper growth in cereal crop production is also expected to increase the agriculture sector’s growth rate by over 5 per cent this fiscal year pushing the overall GDP growth up. The government – through the budget – has tragetted to achieve 8 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal year. The projected harvest is expected to generate revenues of more than Rs 45 billion based on the average price of wheat of Rs 22 per kg at the current price.
The country witnessed a record wheat output of 1.97 million tonnes in the fiscal year 2014-15. But the rainfall dependent production plunged by 12.1 per cent to a six-year low of 1.73 million tonnes in the fiscal year 2015-16. Due to good rain, harvests jumped by 6 per cent in the fiscal year 2016-17, reaching 1.84 million tonnes. Wheat production stood at a record 1.93 million tonnes in the last fiscal year, making it the second biggest wheat harvest in the country’s history also due to improved varieties of wheat seeds that boost productivity. Nearly 45 per cent of the wheat acreage is now covered by improved seeds."

Annual Wheat Harvest
Year          Output (in tonnes)
2018-19     2.08 million
2017-18     1.94 million
2016-17     1.84 million
2015-16     1.73 million
2014-15     1.97 million
2013-14     1.88 million
2012-13     1.88 million
2011-12     1.84 million
2010-11     1.74 million
2009-10     1.55 million
(Source: Agriculture Ministry)

Paddy harvest to hit record high

Paddy harvest – in the current fiscal year – is expected to hit a record high of 5.61 million tonnes this fiscal year due to better-than-expected rainfall, according to the Agriculture Ministry. The bumper crop is expected 9 per cent increase from last fiscal year, reveals the preliminary statistics.
The statistics reveals that Nepal’s paddy productivity is expected to increase to a record high of 3.8 tonnes per hectare in the current fiscal year, up from 3.5 tonnes in the last fiscal year 2017-18. The country’s average productivity is 3 tonnes per hectare.
Based on the average price of Rs 21 per kg, the current fiscal year’s projected paddy harvest is worth more than Rs115 billion, excluding the value of byproducts like straw and bran which reaches billions of rupees, the ministry claims.
The bumper growth in paddy – the most common cereal crop – production is also expected to increase the agriculture sector’s growth in the current fiscal year pushing the overall GDP growth up as the agriculture contributes to around 30 per cent to the economic growth. The government – through the budget – has tragetted to achieve 8 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal year.

Paddy production increases but not enough to meet demand

Though paddy production has increased by around nine per cent this year, it still is not enough to meet the overall demand of 6.1 million metric tonnes for the countrymen.
Some 5.6 million metric tonnes of paddy was produced this year compared to 5.1 million metric tonnes last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development.
The better paddy harvest will give a push to the economic growth – for the current fiscal year – also as paddy has more weitage in Nepal's economic growth, especially agriculture growth, that contributes to around one third to the gross domestic production (GDP).
The increased paddy production has also met the fourth three-year plan of producing 5.5 million metric tonnes paddy. "The increment in paddy yield per hectare of land stands at 3.76 metric tonnes compared to 3.5 metric tonnes last year," the ministry said, adding that the overall increment in paddy yield stood at 8.89 per cent this year. "The paddy fields swelled around 22,000 hectares this year, an increment of 7.27 per cent."
Rains, arrangements for fertilisers on time, the use of hybrid seeds, and less impact of natural disasters contributed to the increment in paddy production, said the agriculture secretary Yubakdhoj GC.
Province 2 topped the paddy production increment this year among the seven provinces, according to information officer of the ministry Binod Bhattarai. "Province 2 witnessed the production of 1.49 million metric tonnes of paddy, an increment of 209,000 metric tonnes, compared to last year."
The paddy plantation – this year – covered some 1.49 million hectares of lands compared to 1.46 million hectares last year. Approximately 97 per cent paddy plantation had been witnessed across the country this year.