भारतले रोक्यो चिनी निर्यात

भारत सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा रोक लगाएको छ । यसअघि गहुँ निर्यातमा रोक लगाएको भारत सरकारले जुन १ अर्थात बुधबारदेखि चिनी निर्यातमा समेत रोक लगाएको हो ।

भारत सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा रोक लगाए पनि नेपालमा अभाव नहुने व्यवसायीहरुले बताएका छन् ।

चिनी उत्पादन संघले नेपालका उद्योगी तथा व्यवसायीसँग पर्याप्त मात्रामा चिनीको मौज्दात रहेको भन्दै तत्काल अभाव नहुने जनाएको हो ।

संघका अध्यक्ष शशीकान्त अग्रवाल नेपालका उद्योगसँग हाल पर्याप्त मात्रामा चिनीको मौज्दात रहेको भन्दै अभाव नहुने बताउँछन् ।

उनका अनुुसार नेपालमा वार्षिक २ लाख ७५ हजार मेट्रिक टन चिनीको माग रहेकोमा आधा नेपालकै उत्पादनले पुग्दै आएको छ । नेपालमा १० वटा चिनी उद्योगले चिनी उत्पादन गर्दै आएका छन् ।

स्वदेशी उद्योगले मात्रै वार्षिक १ लाख ३० हजार मेट्रिकटन चिनी उत्पादन गर्ने भन्दै भारतले निर्यातामा रोक लगाउँदा नेपालमा खासै असर नपर्ने उनको भनाई छ ।

संघको तथ्यांक अनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षमा मात्रै नेपालका चिनी उद्योगले ३ लाख २१ हजार मेट्रिक टन चिनी उत्पादन गरेका छन् । स्वदेशी चिनी उत्पादन सँगै चालु आर्थिक वर्षको दश महिनामा नेपालले विभिन्न देशबाट ४ अर्ब ८३ करोड रुपैयाँ बढीको चिनी आयात गरेको छ ।

उत्पादनसँगै आयातीत चिनीको परिमाणमा समेत बृद्धि हुँदा अभाव नहुने व्यवसायीहरुको भनाई छ । नेपालले चालु आर्थिक वर्षको दश महिनाको अवधिमा भारतबाट मात्रै साढे २५ करोड ६५ लाख ३६ हजार रुपैयाँ बराबरको ७६ लाख ९ हजार किलो चिनीको आयात गरेको हो ।

सरकारी कम्पनीसँग छैन चिनी

सरकारी लगानीमा सञ्चालित खाद्य व्यवस्था तथा व्यापार कम्पनी लिमिटेड र साल्ट ट्रेडिङ कर्पाेरेशनले चिनीको मौज्दात नरहेको जनाएको छ । साल्ट ट्रेडिङ कर्पाेरेशनले बिक्री वितरण गर्दै आएको चिनी लामो समयदेखि बिक्री बन्द भएको जनाएकोे छ ।

‘सरकारले ५० प्रतिशत भन्सार छुटमा चिनी आयातको अनुमति नदिएपछि चिनीको बिक्री वितरण गरेका छैनौँ, स्टक हुँदासम्म वितरण गरिएको थियो, अहिले स्टक सकिएपछि लामो समयदेखि चिनी विक्री नै बन्द छ’, कर्पाेरेशनका एक कर्मचारीले भने ।

चाडपर्वका लागि चिनीको आयात गर्दै आएको खाद्य कम्पनीले समेत चिनीको बिक्री वितरण बन्द गरेको छ ।

उद्योग, वाणिज्य तथा आपूर्ति मन्त्रालयले भारत सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा रोक लगाउँदा त्यसको असर नेपाली बजारमा देखिने जनाएको छ । मन्त्रालयका प्रवक्ता डा नारायण रेग्मी हाल पर्याप्त असर नदेखिएपनि निर्यातमा लामो समय रोक लगाउँदा असर देखिन सक्ने बताउँछन् ।

‘अहिले नेपाली चिनी उद्योगसँग पर्याप्त मौज्दात छ, तत्काल अभाव वा असर देखिदैन, तर भारतले लामो समयसम्म निर्यातमा रोक लगायो भने त्यसको केही असर पर्न सक्ने हाम्रो अनुमान छ’, उनले भने ।

भारतीय सञ्चार माध्यमले मोदी सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा पूर्ण रोक नलगाए पनि निर्यात सीमा एक करोड टन राखेको जनाएका छन् । चिनी निर्यातमा भारत विश्वको दोस्रो ठूलो देश हो । विश्वमा ब्राजिलले सबैभन्दा धेरै चिनी निर्यात गर्छ ।

भारतबाट सबैभन्दा धेरै चिनी इन्डोनेसिया, अफगानिस्तान, श्रीलंका, बंगलादेश, संयुक्त अरब इमिरेट्स, मलेसिया र अफ्रिकी देशले खरिद गर्दै आएका छन् ।

भारतमा उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फिती बढेर ७.७९ प्रतिशत पुगेपछि सरकारले गहुँ र चिनी निर्यातमा अल्पकालीन रोक लगाएको हो । भारत सरकारले मुलुकभित्र बढ्दो खाद्य सुरक्षा र महँगीलाई ध्यानमा राख्दै निर्यातमा रोक लगाउने निर्णय गरेको हो ।

पछिल्लो समय विभिन्न देशमा रुस र युक्रेनबीचको युद्धका कारण विभिन्न वस्तुको मूल्य बढेको छ । हालसालै सार्वजनिक तथ्यांकका अनुसार भारतमा इन्धन र खाद्यान्नको उच्च मूल्यका कारण अप्रिलमा उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फीति ८ वर्षकै उच्चमा पुगेको देखाएको छ ।

Wheat harvest expected to set new record

Wheat harvest – in the current fiscal year – is expected to set a new record as it is projected to exceed 2 million tonnes due to good rainfall in the season. The record wheat crop follows a bumper paddy harvest last summer.
Though, the government is planning to announce crop production estimates for the current fiscal year 2018-19 soon, wheat – the country’s third most common cereal crop after paddy and maize – harvest is expected to record a 7 per cent growth this year largely due to ‘good winter’ rainfall across the country, according Agriculture Ministry.
The good harvest of cereal crops is expected to not only increase farmer incomes and reduce rice import bill but also bring the inflation down. It will also push the economic growth because agriculture contributed to around 30 per cent to the gross domestic production (GDP). Wheat accounts for more than 7 per cent of the Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (AGDP), according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
The bumper growth in cereal crop production is also expected to increase the agriculture sector’s growth rate by over 5 per cent this fiscal year pushing the overall GDP growth up. The government – through the budget – has tragetted to achieve 8 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal year. The projected harvest is expected to generate revenues of more than Rs 45 billion based on the average price of wheat of Rs 22 per kg at the current price.
The country witnessed a record wheat output of 1.97 million tonnes in the fiscal year 2014-15. But the rainfall dependent production plunged by 12.1 per cent to a six-year low of 1.73 million tonnes in the fiscal year 2015-16. Due to good rain, harvests jumped by 6 per cent in the fiscal year 2016-17, reaching 1.84 million tonnes. Wheat production stood at a record 1.93 million tonnes in the last fiscal year, making it the second biggest wheat harvest in the country’s history also due to improved varieties of wheat seeds that boost productivity. Nearly 45 per cent of the wheat acreage is now covered by improved seeds."

Annual Wheat Harvest
Year          Output (in tonnes)
2018-19     2.08 million
2017-18     1.94 million
2016-17     1.84 million
2015-16     1.73 million
2014-15     1.97 million
2013-14     1.88 million
2012-13     1.88 million
2011-12     1.84 million
2010-11     1.74 million
2009-10     1.55 million
(Source: Agriculture Ministry)

Wheat production set to drop by 20.5 per cent

Nepal's wheat production is estimated to drop by 20.5 percent in the current fiscal year.

Wheat production forecast for 2015-16 is 1,570 metric tons, a 20.5 per cent decrease compared to the production level of 1,975 metric tons in 2014-15, according to CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT).

The first advance estimate of 2015-16 wheat production in Nepal, which has been conducted using CRAFT, has also forecast that the current fiscal year's figure is a 16 per cent decline from average production over the last five years.

The significant drop in production is attributed to an estimated five percent decrease in wheat cultivation area nationwide as compared to the 2014-15 season. "Wheat grown area decreased because of two main reasons – severe shortage of fuel for irrigation and land preparation, and limited availability and use of fertilizers – both of which were caused by the political crisis in the Tarai and restricted cross-border trade with India from September 2015 to February 2016," the study report says.

In addition, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, cumulative rainfall during this winter season – from November 2015 to January 2016 – was far below the 30-year average.

Official reports from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, however, are yet to be published. "Because of inadequate soil moisture due to delayed and poor rains and limited irrigation due to the shortage of fuel, it was assumed in the CRAFT model run that the irrigated area decreased by 25 per cent and wheat plantation was late by 10 days," the report further added.

The preliminary estimate, which will be revised with updated data as the season progresses, has been jointly produced by the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MoAD), World Food Programme (WFP), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) as part of the Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP).

CRAFT incorporates a crop simulation model (DSSAT), weather and seasonal forecast module (CPT) and a GIS mapping module, and it provides the support for spatial input data, spatial crop simulations, integration of seasonal climate forecasts, spatial aggregation, probabilistic analysis of forecast uncertainty, and calibration of model predictions from historical agricultural statistics, analysis and visualization that increase the authenticity of the estimation and correctness of the forecast.

"The tool helps to provide advance information to farmers, extension agents and policy makers allowing them to manage within-season climate risks to agriculture," the report said, adding that the model has been used in Nepal for a pilot study and is being currently used in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India as well.