प्रधानमन्त्रीको चीन भ्रमणः ल्हासामा सुन छ, कान मेरो बुच्चै

प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल आफ्नो एक साता लामो चीन भ्रमणपछि शनिबार ल्हासाबाट काठमाडौं फर्कदै छन् । तर, जम्बो सरकारी टोली लिएर तामझामका साथ गत शनिबार न्यूयोर्कबाट सिधैं चीन पुगेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको उत्तरी छिमेकीको भ्रमण भने ‘ल्हासामा सुन छ, कान मेरो बुच्चै’ भनेझैं भएको छ ।

व्यापारविद् पुरुषोत्तम ओझाकाअनुसार पहिला-पहिला भएका सम्झौताका विषयहरुमात्र दोहोरिने तर कार्यान्वयनमा नजाने कमजोरीका कारण नेपालको चीनसँगको व्यापार घाटा चुलिदो छ ।

व्यापार तथा निर्यात प्रवर्धन केन्द्रको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत आर्थिक वर्षमा चीनसँग नेपालको व्यापार घाटा २ खर्ब २० अर्ब ९५ करोड छ । नेपालले गत आर्थिक वर्ष २०७९/ ८० मा चीनतर्फ १ अर्ब ७६ करोडको मात्र वस्तु निर्यात गरेकोमा चीनबाट भने २ खर्ब २२ अर्ब ७१ करोडको वस्तु आयात गरेको थियो ।

२०७२ सालको भूकम्पपछि नै चीनतर्फका नाका नियमित सञ्चालन भएनन् । कहिले भूकम्प, कहिले कोरोना त कहिले अन्य कारणले सिन्धुपाल्चोकको तातोपानी तथा रसुवाको केरुङ नाका नियमित सञ्चालनमा नआउँदा चीनतर्फ नेपालको निर्यात खुम्चेको छ । ‘नेपालले चीनमा पनि विशेषतः तिब्बतमा निर्यात गर्ने हो’, ओझा भन्छन्, ‘तर चीनको नाकाबन्दीले तिब्बततिरको निर्यात घट्दा समग्रमा नै नेपालको निर्यात खुम्चेको हो ।’

केन्द्रको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत एक दशकमा नेपालले सबैभन्दा धेरै निर्यात आव २०७४/७५मा गरेको छ । आव २०७४/७५ मा २ अर्ब ४७ करोडको निर्यात गरेको नेपालले त्यसअघि वा त्यसपछि पनि गत आवसम्ममा २ अर्बको निर्यात गर्न हम्मे हम्मे परेको देखिन्छ ।

तर आयात भने विगत एक दशकमा नै १ खर्बभन्दा बढी मात्र नभएर कुनै आवमा साढे २ खर्ब पनि नाघेको छ । साढे २ खर्ब र जम्मा २ अर्बको बीचको व्यापारको खाडल मेट्न ६ जना मन्त्री सहितको प्रधानमन्त्री भ्रमणको जम्बो सरकारी टोलीले घुमघामबाट फुर्सद् पाए कि पाएनन् होला, आगामी दिनमा देखिने नै छ ।

व्यापारविद् ओझाकाअनुसार व्यापार अभिवृद्धिको पहिलो शर्त नै सहज सडक सञ्जाल हो । नेपालले चीनसँगको व्यापार बढाउन नाकासम्म पुग्ने अत्यावश्यक सडक निर्माण तथा स्तरोन्नतीमा जोड दिन सकेको छैन । हरेक पटक काठमाडौं वा बेइजिङबाट हुने उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमण अगाडि तथा पछाडि केहि दिन यी नाका खुल्छन् फेरि बन्द भै हाल्छन् ।

यसपटकको संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा पनि नेपाललाई भूपरिवेष्टित मुलुकबाट भू–जडित मुलुकमा परिणत गर्न चीनको पारवहन यातायात र राजमार्गको उपयोगसम्बन्धी यसअघि हस्ताक्षर गरिएका सहयोगसम्बन्धी दस्तावेजहरू कार्यान्वयनलाई निरन्तरता दिन दुबै पक्ष सहमत भएका छन् ।

संयुक्त वक्तव्यका अनुसार नेपालको आवश्यकतालाई मध्यनजर गर्दै अरनिको राजमार्ग मर्मतसम्भार आयोजनाको चौथो चरणको काम सुरू गर्न चिनियाँ पक्ष तयार भएको छ । त्यस्तै, स्याफ्रुबेसी–रसुवागढी राजमार्ग मर्मतको काम चाँडो सुरु गर्न पनि चिनियाँ पक्ष सहमत भएको छ ।

हरेकपटका उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमणमा उहि कुराहरु आउँछन् तर कार्यान्वयनको तहसम्म आइपुग्दैनन् । जस्तै, करिब एक दशकदेखि केरुङ नाकाबाट हुने व्यापार सहजीकरणको लागी स्याफ्रुबेशीको बाटो स्तरोन्नतीको चर्चा भइरहेको छ तर कार्यान्वयन भएको छैन । यसैगरि, तातोपानी नाका पुग्ने बाटोको दूरावस्थामा पनि परिवर्तन आएको छैन ।

लिजी–नेचुङ बन्दरगाह सञ्चालन र यात्रु सेवाका लागि झाङ्मु–खासा बन्दरगाह पुनः सञ्चालन गरिएकोमा काठमाडौं बेइजिङ दुबै पक्षले स्वागत गरेका छन् । लिजी–नेचुङ बन्दरगाहमा नेपाली पक्षको सुविधाका लागि यथाशीघ्र सुधार गर्न सहयोग गर्ने प्रतिवद्धता पनि चिनियाँ पक्षले जनाएको छ ।

पुलान र जिलोङ बन्दरगाहमा यात्रु र कार्गो सेवाको सहज तथा व्यवस्थित सञ्चालनका लागि दुबै पक्षले प्रशंसा गरेका छन् । वक्तब्यकाअनुसार परम्परागत रूपमा सञ्चालन भइरहेका चीन–नेपाल सीमा व्यापार नाकाहरू पुनः खोल्न पनि चीन सहमत भएको छ । चेन्ताङ–किमाथाङ्का, रिवु–ओलाङचुङ्गोला बन्दरगाहलाई छिट्टै खोल्नका लागि निरन्तर सम्पर्क गर्ने विषयमा दुबै पक्ष सहमत भएका छन् ।

यसपटक पनि दुई देशबीचको यातायात सञ्जाल बिस्तार गर्न टोखा–छहरे सुरूङमार्गको सम्भाव्यता अध्ययन चाडो टुङ्गाउन, काठमाडौंको दोस्रो चरणको चक्रपथ विस्तार आयोजनालाई तीव्र गतिमा अघि बढाउन दुबै देश सहमत भएका छन् ।

साथै, जिलोङ–केरुङ–काठमाडौं अन्तरदेशीय रेलवेको सम्भाव्यता अध्ययनको प्रगतिप्रति सन्तुष्टि जनाउदै चीन–नेपाल रेलवे सहयोगसम्बन्धी आठौं कार्यदलको बैठक यथाशक्य चाँडो गर्नेमा पनि नेपाल–चीनबीच सहमति भएको छ । चिनियाँ पक्षले नेपालमा रेलवेसग सम्बन्धित तालिम दिन पनि तयार भएको छ ।

विगतको अनुभवका आधारमा भन्ने हो भने, यो संयुक्त वक्तव्यको मसी सुकिसक्दा पनि कार्यान्वयनमा भने न काठमाडौं न बेइजिङ, दुबैले त्यति वास्ता गर्ने छैनन् । र अर्को उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमणमा यी बुँदाहरु फेरि पनि दोहोरिने छन् ।

तर, बाटो सहज हुँदैमा मात्र नेपालको निर्यात बढ्ने होइन, झनै आयात बढ्न पनि सक्छ, व्यापारघाटाको खाडल झन् बढ्न सक्छ । त्यसैले निर्यात बढाउन चिनियाँ बजारलक्षित नेपाली वस्तुको उत्पादनमा पनि जोड दिनु आवश्यक छ ।

चीनले नेपालसहितका अतिकम विकसित मुलुकहरूबाट निर्यात हुने ९८ वस्तुहरूमा भन्सार शुल्क शून्य सुबिधा दिएको छ । त्यसबाहेक पनि चीनले नेपालका करिब ८ हजार वस्तुको निर्यातमा भन्सार शुल्क मिनाहा गरेको छ । तर, त्यसको फाइदा नेपालले उठाउन सकेको छैन । किनकि नेपालमा ती भन्सार शुल्क मिनाहामा सूचीकृत वस्तुहरुको गुणस्तरीय उत्पादन तथा चिनियाँ बजारको मागअनुरुपको परिमाणमा निर्यात गर्न सक्ने क्षमता छैन ।

चिनियाँ बजारको मागअनुरुपको परिमाण तथा गुणस्तरमा नेपाली वस्तु उत्पादकहरुको चासो तथा रुची नभएको उद्योग मन्त्रालयका एक अधिकारीले बताए । उनका अनुसार नेपाली वस्तु निर्यातमा भएका क्वारन्टाइनमा समस्या तथा गैरभन्सार अवरोध त छँदैछ, त्यसबाहेक पनि नेपालका आफनै कमजोरी पनि चीनतर्फ नेपाली निर्यात नबढ्नुको कारण हो ।

यसका साथै, चीनसँग निरन्तर व्यापार नबढ्नुको कारण भने नेपाली तथा चिनियाँ मुद्राबीचको परिवर्त्य दर पनि एउटा प्रमुख कारण रहेको मन्त्रालयको अध्ययन रहेको उनको भनाइ छ ।

त्यसैले चीन भ्रमणमा रहेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल र उनका चिनियाँ समकक्षी ली छ्याङबीच प्रतिनिधिमण्डलस्तरीय वार्तापछि जारी संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा व्यापार प्रवर्द्धन तथा सहजीकरण, कूटनीतिक सम्बन्ध विस्तार तथा क्षेत्रीय सहयोगका लागि सहकार्य गर्ने विषयमा सहमति भएको भनिए पनि कुटनीतिकरुपमा यस्ता वक्तव्यको अर्थ त होला तर काठमाडौं र बेइजिङबीच देखिने गरि आर्थिक सम्बन्ध कसिलो हुनुको साटो ब्यावहारिकरुपमा झन् खुकुलो हुँदै गएको पाइन्छ ।

राजनीति हाबी, आर्थिक कूटनीति फेल

व्यापारमात्र नभएर नेपालमा चीनको लगानी पनि उल्लेख्य आएको देखिन्न । नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकको आर्थिक अनुसन्धान विभागले गरेको अनुसन्धान प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार २०७९ असार मसान्तसम्ममा नेपालमा ५७ देशको प्रत्यक्ष वैदेशिक लगानी रहेकोमा चीन दोस्रो स्थानमा छ । तर, पहिलो हुने भारत र दोस्रो हुने चीनबीच लगानी रकममा दोब्बरभन्दा बढी फरक छ ।

प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार भारतबाट सबैभन्दा बढी ८८ अर्ब ५९ करोड वैदेशिक लगानी आउँदा चीनबाट जम्मा ३३ अर्ब ४५ करोडमात्र लगानी आएको छ ।

कुनै समय नेपालमा भित्रने वैदेशिक लगानीमा पहिलो स्थानमा रहेको चीन पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा नेपालमा लगानी बढाउन चासो नदिनु नेपालप्रति चीनको विश्वासमा आएको कमी तथा नेपालको कमजोर आर्थिक कूटनीतिको परिणाम हो ।

जसका कारण पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा उत्तरी छिमेकि नेपालको विकासमा भन्दा पनि राजनीतिमा बडि सकृय रहेको आरोप लाग्न थालेको छ । विश्वको एक नम्बर अर्थतन्त्र बन्ने लक्ष्यका साथ अगाडि बढेको छिमेकिबाट नेपालले कुनै आर्थिक फाइदा लिन नसक्नुमा नेपालका राजनीतिक दल अनि नीति निर्माताको पनि असफलता हो । (https://clickmandu.com/2023/09/268812.html)

Nepal resumes exports through Rasuwagadhi border after 3 years

The northern border that has remained almost closed after 2015, has opened from today as Nepal exported some eight containers of goods to China through the Rasuwagadhi border customs.

Export from Nepal has been completely stalled for about 36 months citing the Covid-19 pandemic, whereas trade has been irregular though Tatopani customs since 2015 devastating earthquake. 

Chief Customs Officer at Rasuwa Customs Office Narayan Prasad Bhandari confirmed the export of goods worth around Rs 5.07 million today through the Rasuwagadhi customs today. 

“Exports that had stalled due to the Covid pandemic have started from today,” he said, adding that bamboo stools, handicrafts and copper ornamental items were exported to China today. "The export of goods and the movement of people through Rasuwagadhi customs was closed from January 29, 2020."

According to the customs report, goods worth Rs 763 million were exported to China in the fiscal year 2019-20. However, a limited import was allowed and about 14 Chinese containers were imported from the border daily, though irregularly. 

Nepali traders have been blaming China for imposing an 'undeclared blockade' on Nepal by halting the free movement of goods to and from the landlocked country via both Tatopani-Khasa and Rasuwagadhi-Kerung customs points. Nepali traders have been voicing their concerns time and again but the apathy from the Chinese side pushed them into huge losses. 

Ready-made clothes, apples, shoes, bags, motor batteries, plastic goods are imported from China through the border, whereas pashmina, carpets, bamboo stools, broom grass, refined flour, vegetable ghee, noodles, pasta, biscuits, juice, jam, beaten rice, lapsi candy, chocolate, sugar and chewing gum are exported to China.

According to a press note issued by the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu, “The opening of two-way trade of Kerung port will promote Nepal’s exports to China, reduce the trade deficit in Nepal, solve the trade imbalance, and further improve the connectivity between China and Nepal.”

Nepal and China trade through Tatopani and Rasuwagadhi border points. But the Tatopani border point is still closed for two-way trade. 

The resumption of bilateral trade could be a coincidence with the formation of a new government, that is said to be orchestrated by the northern neighbour, a day ago in Nepal.

There will be an official ceremony to celebrate the resumption of two-way trade tomorrow. The ceremony will be attended by delegates of the Department of Commerce of Xizang Autonomous Region, the Lhasa Customs, the General Station of Immigration Inspection of Xizang Autonomous Region, the Health Commission of Xizang Autonomous Region, and other relevant departments.

The Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu has released pictures of export from Nepal.

External sector improves after 14 months

After 14 months, money coming into the country has recorded a surplus than the money going out of the country, which has improved the external sector.

According to the ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’, published today by the central bank, the Balance of Payment (BoP) recorded a surplus of Rs 12.43 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year as the remittance and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow increased over the period.

For the last 14 months, the country was facing BoP deficit. As of mid-October last year, the country was in BoP deficit of Rs 87.71 billion. In the US Dollar terms, the BoP remained at a surplus of $91.8 million in the first quarter compared to a deficit of 741.2 million in the first quarter of last year.

The BoP records current account, capital account and financial account of a country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world. It is one of the key indicators to show a country’s net balance in terms of foreign currency reserves.

With the BoP surplus, gross foreign exchange reserves also increased by 2.5 per cent to Rs 1.246 trillion in mid-October from Rs 1.215 trillion in mid-July. According to the central bank, the foreign currency reserve is sufficient for merchandise and services imports of 8.3 months.

In the first three months of the current fiscal year, remittance inflows also increased by 16.8 per cent to post Rs 281.05 billion,, adding Rs 94 billion in a month, due to impressive migrant workers outflow in the recent months of the current fiscal year, and also due to government’s inability to create jobs in the country.

Likewise, imports decreased by 16.2 per cent to Rs 401 billion against an increase of 63.7 per cent a year ago due to government and central bank’s import restrictions, according to the central bank data.

According to the central bank, capital transfer also increased by 34.8 per cent to Rs 2.59 billion and net FDI inflow recorded Rs 79.6 million. In the first quarter of the last fiscal year, capital transfer and net FDI inflow amounted to Rs 1.92 billion and Rs 5.07 billion, respectively.

आयात प्रतिबन्ध दुई महिना लम्बियो

अब व्यवसाय बन्द गरेर चुप लागेर बस्छौंः नाडा 

विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चितिमा दबाब परेपछि सरकारले लगाउँदै आएको आयात प्रतिबन्ध थप २ महिना लम्ब्याएको छ । सरकारले गत वैशाख १४ गतेदेखि लगाएको आयात प्रतिबन्ध थप दुई महिना लम्ब्याएर मंसिर मसान्तसम्म पु¥याएको हो । 

असोज २८ गते बसेको मन्त्रिपरिषद् बैठकले पूर्ण प्रतिबन्ध लगाइएका चार प्रकारका वस्तुको पैठारीमा लगाएको बन्देजलाई आगामी मंसिर मसान्तसम्म कायम गर्ने निर्णय गरेको सञ्चारमन्त्री तथा सरकारका प्रवक्ता ज्ञानेन्द्रबहादुर कार्कीले जानकारी दिए । उनले भने, “सरकारले आयातमा पूर्ण प्रतिबन्ध लगाइएका मदिरा, ३ सय अमेरिकी डलरभन्दा बढी मूल्यका स्मार्टफोन, सबै प्रकारका पेट्रोलियमबाट चल्ने कार, १५० सीसीभन्दा माथिका मोटरसाइकलको आयात रोकिएको छ ।” यसअघि सरकारले थप सीमा तोकेर असार मसान्तसम्मका र पछि थप गरेर भदौ १४ हुँदै थप असोज २८ सम्म कायम गरिएको थियो । 

सरकारले विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति नाजुक अवस्थामा पुग्न लागेको भन्दै पेट्रोलियमबाट चल्ने सबै कार र २५० सीसीभन्दा बढी इन्जिन क्षमताका मोटरसाइकलको आयातमा प्रतिबन्ध लगायो । पछि यसलाई १५० सीसीमा सीमित गरिएको थियो। वैशाख १३ गतेदेखि असार मसान्तसम्म लगाइएको प्रतिबन्धलाई असार ३१ मा पुनः राजपत्रमा सूचना प्रकाशित गरेर भदौ १४ सम्म पु¥याइएको थियो । उक्त निर्णयलाई पुनः असोज २८ सम्म लम्ब्याउने निर्णय सरकारले गरेको थियो भने अझ २ महिना थप गरेर उद्योग वाणिज्य तथा आपूर्ति मन्त्रालयको रोहवरमा आयातमाथिको प्रतिबन्ध आगामी मंसिर मसान्तसम्म कायम गरेको हो । सरकारले वैशाख १४ बाट लगाउँदै आएको आयात प्रतिबन्धको सीमा हटाउन नाडा अटोमोबाइल्स एसोसिएसन अफ नेपालले माग गर्दै आएको थियो । सरकारले भने २८ असोजसम्म विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चितिमा सुधार नभएको जनाउँदै आयातको प्रतिबन्ध थप दुई महिना लम्ब्याउन भनेको छ । नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७९ असार मसान्तमा कुल विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति १.५ प्रतिशतले कमी आएको थियो । २०७९ साउन मसान्तमा ११ खर्ब ९७ अर्ब ८५ करोड कायम रहेको जनाएको छ । अमेरिकी डलरमा यस्तो सञ्चिति २०७९ असार मसान्तमा ९ अर्ब ५४ करोड रहेकोमा २०७९ साउन मसान्तमा १.२ प्रतिशतले कमी आई ९ अर्ब ४२ करोड कायम भएको राष्ट्र बंैकले भनेको छ । सरकारले अत्यावश्यक वस्तुको आयातमा प्रतिबन्ध लगाएर सरकारले प्राप्त गर्ने राजस्व गुमाइरहेको नाडाका अध्यक्ष ध्रुव थापाले  बताए । उनले भने, “सरकारले लगाउँदै आएको प्रतिबन्ध हटाउनु पर्नेमा थप गरेर अटोमोबाइल व्यवसाय नै धरापमा पारेको छ ।”

लामो समयदेखिको आयात प्रतिबन्धका कारण अटोमोबाइल व्यवसाय धरापमा परेको बताउँदै थापाले सरकार गम्भिर नरहेको बताएका छन् । केही व्यवसाय बन्द गरेर अन्य विकल्पका व्यवसायमा व्यवसायी लागेको अध्यक्ष थापाको भनाइ छ ।

अध्यक्ष थापाले भने, “नेपालको बढ्दो व्यापार घाटा र शोधनान्तर घाटामा यसको अंश अत्यन्त सानो भए पनि योगदान धेरै हो । कार, जिप र भ्यानजस्ता निजी प्रयोजनका सवारीसाधनहरुको आयातमा लागेको प्रतिबन्ध फुकाउनका लागि सरकारसँग माग गर्दै आएको थियो । अब चुप लागेर  व्यापार–व्यवसाय बन्द गरेर बस्छौं । सरकारले जहिले खुलाउँछ, खुलाओस् ।” सरकारले स्वदेशमा उत्पादन हुने मदिराको कच्चा पदार्थ र एम्बुलेन्स र शववाहनको आयातमा भने प्रतिबन्ध लगाएको छैन । 

आर्थिक वृद्धिमा संकुचन आउने प्रक्षेपण

यसअघि आफैंले गरेको अनुमानलाई घटाएर एसियाली विकास बैंक (एडीबी)ले चालू आर्थिक वर्ष २०७९-०८० मा नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धिदर ४.७ प्रतिशतमा सीमित हुने प्रक्षेपण गरेको छ । यसअघि एडीबीले अप्रिलमा नेपालले ५ प्रतिशतको आर्थिक वृद्धिदर प्राप्त गर्ने प्रक्षेपण गरेको थियो ।

गत आर्थिक वर्षमा ५.८ प्रतिशत रहेको आर्थिक वृद्धिदरमा चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा केही संकुचन आउने अनुमान गर्दै एडीबीले सरकारले हाल लिएका नीतिका कारण अर्थतन्त्रमा संकुचन आउने विश्लेषण गरेको हो । 

हाल विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितीमा दबाब परेको भन्दै सरकारले आयातमा प्रतिबन्ध लगाएको छ । तर, एडीबीका अनुसार आयातमा अंकुश लगाउँदा अर्थतन्त्रको विस्तारमा नकारात्मक असर पुग्नेछ ।

सरकारले चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा ८ प्रतिशतको आर्थिक वृद्धिदरको लक्ष्य राखेको छ । तर, एडीबीले बुधबार एसियन डेभलपमेन्ट आउटलुक २०२२ सार्वजनिक गर्दै अर्थतन्त्रमा संकुचन आउने प्रक्ष्ोपण गरेको हो ।

सार्वजनिक प्रतिवदेनमा सन् २०२४ मा नेपालको वैदेशिक मुद्राको सञ्चितीमा अझ गिरावट आउने र मुद्रास्फितीमा थप दबाब पर्ने समेत जनाइएको छ । आयात नियन्त्रणका लागि सरकारले अपनाउने औजारहरुका कारण अर्थतन्त्रको वृद्धि खुम्चिने जोखिम बढ्ने पनि प्रतिवदेनको निष्कर्ष छ । आयात नियन्त्रणसँगै आन्तरिक उत्पादन र उपभोगसमेत घट्ने जोखिमतर्फ इंगित गर्दै एडीबीले यस्ता गतिविधिले चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धिलाई नकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्ने जनाएको छ ।

साथै, कडा मौद्रिक नीतिका कारण नेपालको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन प्रभावित हुने भन्दै निर्यातमा जोड दिनुपर्ने पनि प्रतिवेदनले उल्लेख गरेको छ । प्रतिवेदन सार्वजनिक गर्दै नेपालका लागि एडीबीका कन्ट्री डाइरेक्टर आनो कुस्वाले कोभिड–१९ महामारीपछिको लकडाउन, डेंगु ज्वरोको प्रकोपलगायतले नेपालको स्वास्थ्य प्रणालीलाई कमजोर बनाइदिएको बताए । साथै, विभिन्न प्राकृतिक प्रकोपहरुबाट समेत जोखिम ब्येहोर्नु परिरहेको नेपालको भूराजनीतिक अवस्थाले पनि आर्थिक वृद्धिलाई कमजोर बनाउने उनको भनाइ छ ।

एडीबीका अनुसार सामान्य मनसुनका कारण कृषिको वृद्धिदर राम्रो हुने सम्भावना छ । तर, मलको अभावले धानको उत्पादनमा प्रतिकूल असर पर्ने अनुमान पनि एडीबीले गरेको छ । जलविद्युतको बढ्दो उत्पादन र उद्योगको क्षमता उपयोगमा वृद्धि हुने अनुमान गर्दै एडीबीले व्याजदरमा भएको वृद्धिले रियल इस्टेट, थोक तथा खुद्रा व्यापार प्रभावित हुने जनाएको छ ।

आउँदो निर्वाचनले खर्च बढाउने र अर्थतन्त्रको वृद्धिमा समेत सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्ने अनुमान गर्दै एडीबीले चालू आवको बजेट कृषि, उद्योग, पूर्वाधार र सामाजिक सुरक्षाका क्षेत्रमा केन्द्रित रहेको भए पनि मुद्रास्फीति केही संकुचन हुन सक्ने प्रक्षेपण गरेको छ । गत आर्थिक वर्षमा ६.३ प्रतिशत रहेको मुद्रास्फीति चालू आवमा ६.१ मा सीमित हुने अनुमान पनि एडीबीले गरेको छ ।

यसैगरी, दक्षिण एसियामा श्रीलंकाको अर्थतन्त्रको विस्तार नकारात्मक रहने तर अन्य मुलुकको अर्थतन्त्रको विस्तार सकारात्मक रहने आकलन प्रतिवेदनको छ । श्रीलंकाको अर्थतन्त्र ३.३ प्रतिशतले नकारात्मक वृद्धि हुने, पाकिस्तानको ३.५ प्रतिशत सकारात्मक विस्तार देखिने, भुटानको ४ प्रतिशत र नेपालको ४.७ प्रतिशत विस्तार हुने अनुमान एडीबीको छ । यसका साथै बंगलादेशको ६.६ प्रतिशत, भारतको ७.२ प्रतिशत र माल्दिभ्सको सबैभन्दा धेरै १०.४ प्रतिशत अर्थतन्त्र विस्तारको प्रक्षेपण एडीबीले गरेको छ । 

चीनको अघोषित नाकाबन्दीले व्यवसायी मर्कामा

चिनियाँ नाकामा अड्किएका अर्बौंका सामान छुटाउन राज्यका तर्फबाट पहल नभएको भन्दै नेपाल राष्ट्रिय व्यवसायी महासंघले आपत्ति जनाएको छ । उद्योगी–व्यवसायीहरुका समस्या समाधान गर्न चासो नदेखाएको भन्दै महासंघले शनिबार विज्ञप्ति जारी गर्दै सरकारको ध्यानाकर्षण गराएको हो ।  

नेपालीहरुको ठूलो चाड दसैं नजिएको तर दसैंमा बेच्नुपर्ने सामान नाकामै रोकिँदा अर्बौंका सामान सडेर बिग्रने अवस्थामा पुगेको महासंघका अध्यक्ष कुमार कार्कीले बताएका छन् । “उत्तरी नाकामा भइरहेको अघोषित नाकाबन्दीको प्रत्यक्ष मार भने व्यवसायीले भोग्नु परेको छ,” अध्यक्ष कार्कीले जारी गरेको विज्ञप्तिमा भनिएको छ, “सयांै मालवाहक कन्टेनरहरु नाकामा थन्किएर बस्दा चाडपर्व केन्द्रित अर्बौंका सामान सडिने, कुहिने र बिग्रने भई नोक्सान भएको छ भने बजारमा सामानको हाहाकार देखिन्छ ।” 

महासंघले यी समस्याहरु तत्काल समाधान गर्न पहल गरिदिन पनि अनुरोध गरेको छ । धेरै उद्योगी–व्यवसायीहरु बैंकको ब्याजदर तिर्न समेत नसक्ने अवस्थामा पुगेको महासंघले बताएको छ । बैंकले दिएको मानसिक तनावका कारण कतिपय उद्योगी–व्यवसायीहरुले आत्महत्याको बाटो रोज्न बाध्य भएको भन्दै महासंघले यसतर्फ गम्भीर बन्न समेत सरकारलाई अनुरोध गरेको छ । “व्यापार व्यवसाय गर्न सामान नाकामा थन्किएको, बैंकले ऋण चुक्ता गर्न बारम्बार ताकेता गर्दै सम्पत्ति लिलाम तथा जफत गर्ने धम्की दिन्दै मानसिक तनाव दिइरहेको अवस्था छ,” विज्ञप्तिमा भनिएको छ, “यावत् समस्याले गर्दा व्यवसायीहरु मानसिक सन्तुलन गुमाएर आत्महत्या गर्नुपरेको उदाहरणहरु छन् ।”

बैंकको ब्याजदर अत्यधिक बढेको भन्दै बैंकको ब्याजदर नियन्त्रण गर्न समेत महासंघले नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंक समक्ष अनुरोध गरेको छ । देशको अर्थतन्त्रमा सबैभन्दा महत्वपूर्ण क्षेत्र उद्योग व्यवसाय भए पनि राज्यको राजस्व असुलीको मूल क्षेत्र दिनानुदिन धरायसी बन्दै गएको छ । देशमा उद्योगी तथा व्यवसायीमैत्री वातावरण नहुनुका कारण अर्बौं लगानी गरी उद्योग–व्यवसाय सञ्चालन गर्दै आइरहेका उद्योगी–व्यवसायीहरु पलायनतर्फ उन्मुख भइरहेको प्रष्ट देखिएको नेपाल राष्ट्रिय व्यवसायी महासंघले जनाएको छ ।  कागजमा मात्रै व्यवसायमैत्री नीतिनियम हुने र कार्यान्वयन भने अति नै फितलो हुनु नै अहिलेको मुख्य समस्या देखिएको उसको भनाइ छ । 

महासंघका अनुसार व्यवसायीहरुले आफ्नो सम्पूर्ण जायजेथा बैंकलाई बुझाएर ऋण गरी उद्योग व्यापार सञ्चालन गरेका छन् । तर, विभिन्न प्राकृतिक प्रकोप र कोरोना महामारीका कारण व्यापार–व्यवसायले गति लिन नसक्दा बैंक ब्याज तथा घरभाडा समेत तिर्न नसकेको अवस्था रहेका भन्दै महासंघले फितलो राज्य संयन्त्रका कारण उत्तरी नाकामा भइरहेको अघोषित नाकाबन्दीको प्रत्यक्ष मार भने व्यवसायीले भोग्नुपरेको जनाएको छ ।

भारतले रोक्यो चिनी निर्यात

भारत सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा रोक लगाएको छ । यसअघि गहुँ निर्यातमा रोक लगाएको भारत सरकारले जुन १ अर्थात बुधबारदेखि चिनी निर्यातमा समेत रोक लगाएको हो ।

भारत सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा रोक लगाए पनि नेपालमा अभाव नहुने व्यवसायीहरुले बताएका छन् ।

चिनी उत्पादन संघले नेपालका उद्योगी तथा व्यवसायीसँग पर्याप्त मात्रामा चिनीको मौज्दात रहेको भन्दै तत्काल अभाव नहुने जनाएको हो ।

संघका अध्यक्ष शशीकान्त अग्रवाल नेपालका उद्योगसँग हाल पर्याप्त मात्रामा चिनीको मौज्दात रहेको भन्दै अभाव नहुने बताउँछन् ।

उनका अनुुसार नेपालमा वार्षिक २ लाख ७५ हजार मेट्रिक टन चिनीको माग रहेकोमा आधा नेपालकै उत्पादनले पुग्दै आएको छ । नेपालमा १० वटा चिनी उद्योगले चिनी उत्पादन गर्दै आएका छन् ।

स्वदेशी उद्योगले मात्रै वार्षिक १ लाख ३० हजार मेट्रिकटन चिनी उत्पादन गर्ने भन्दै भारतले निर्यातामा रोक लगाउँदा नेपालमा खासै असर नपर्ने उनको भनाई छ ।

संघको तथ्यांक अनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षमा मात्रै नेपालका चिनी उद्योगले ३ लाख २१ हजार मेट्रिक टन चिनी उत्पादन गरेका छन् । स्वदेशी चिनी उत्पादन सँगै चालु आर्थिक वर्षको दश महिनामा नेपालले विभिन्न देशबाट ४ अर्ब ८३ करोड रुपैयाँ बढीको चिनी आयात गरेको छ ।

उत्पादनसँगै आयातीत चिनीको परिमाणमा समेत बृद्धि हुँदा अभाव नहुने व्यवसायीहरुको भनाई छ । नेपालले चालु आर्थिक वर्षको दश महिनाको अवधिमा भारतबाट मात्रै साढे २५ करोड ६५ लाख ३६ हजार रुपैयाँ बराबरको ७६ लाख ९ हजार किलो चिनीको आयात गरेको हो ।

सरकारी कम्पनीसँग छैन चिनी

सरकारी लगानीमा सञ्चालित खाद्य व्यवस्था तथा व्यापार कम्पनी लिमिटेड र साल्ट ट्रेडिङ कर्पाेरेशनले चिनीको मौज्दात नरहेको जनाएको छ । साल्ट ट्रेडिङ कर्पाेरेशनले बिक्री वितरण गर्दै आएको चिनी लामो समयदेखि बिक्री बन्द भएको जनाएकोे छ ।

‘सरकारले ५० प्रतिशत भन्सार छुटमा चिनी आयातको अनुमति नदिएपछि चिनीको बिक्री वितरण गरेका छैनौँ, स्टक हुँदासम्म वितरण गरिएको थियो, अहिले स्टक सकिएपछि लामो समयदेखि चिनी विक्री नै बन्द छ’, कर्पाेरेशनका एक कर्मचारीले भने ।

चाडपर्वका लागि चिनीको आयात गर्दै आएको खाद्य कम्पनीले समेत चिनीको बिक्री वितरण बन्द गरेको छ ।

उद्योग, वाणिज्य तथा आपूर्ति मन्त्रालयले भारत सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा रोक लगाउँदा त्यसको असर नेपाली बजारमा देखिने जनाएको छ । मन्त्रालयका प्रवक्ता डा नारायण रेग्मी हाल पर्याप्त असर नदेखिएपनि निर्यातमा लामो समय रोक लगाउँदा असर देखिन सक्ने बताउँछन् ।

‘अहिले नेपाली चिनी उद्योगसँग पर्याप्त मौज्दात छ, तत्काल अभाव वा असर देखिदैन, तर भारतले लामो समयसम्म निर्यातमा रोक लगायो भने त्यसको केही असर पर्न सक्ने हाम्रो अनुमान छ’, उनले भने ।

भारतीय सञ्चार माध्यमले मोदी सरकारले चिनी निर्यातमा पूर्ण रोक नलगाए पनि निर्यात सीमा एक करोड टन राखेको जनाएका छन् । चिनी निर्यातमा भारत विश्वको दोस्रो ठूलो देश हो । विश्वमा ब्राजिलले सबैभन्दा धेरै चिनी निर्यात गर्छ ।

भारतबाट सबैभन्दा धेरै चिनी इन्डोनेसिया, अफगानिस्तान, श्रीलंका, बंगलादेश, संयुक्त अरब इमिरेट्स, मलेसिया र अफ्रिकी देशले खरिद गर्दै आएका छन् ।

भारतमा उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फिती बढेर ७.७९ प्रतिशत पुगेपछि सरकारले गहुँ र चिनी निर्यातमा अल्पकालीन रोक लगाएको हो । भारत सरकारले मुलुकभित्र बढ्दो खाद्य सुरक्षा र महँगीलाई ध्यानमा राख्दै निर्यातमा रोक लगाउने निर्णय गरेको हो ।

पछिल्लो समय विभिन्न देशमा रुस र युक्रेनबीचको युद्धका कारण विभिन्न वस्तुको मूल्य बढेको छ । हालसालै सार्वजनिक तथ्यांकका अनुसार भारतमा इन्धन र खाद्यान्नको उच्च मूल्यका कारण अप्रिलमा उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फीति ८ वर्षकै उच्चमा पुगेको देखाएको छ ।

Government cuts civil servants’ fuel allowances by 20 per cent

To reduce the fuel imports, the government has cut down fuel allowances of civil servants by 20 per cent. The reduction of import of petroleum products is expected to put less pressure to the depleting foreign currency reserves.

The Finance Ministry, sending a circular to all government offices on Monday, said that it is trying to reduce expenses incurred on fuel from Monday till three months, throughout the current fiscal year.

The ministry press note  reads that a cabinet meeting on Wednesday had decided to cut the expenses on petroleum products of all the government offices and public enterprises. 

The government move is expected to cut down the expenses on fuel to save the foreign currency reserve. “The government offices will have to spend only 80 per cent of their fuel budget,” a Finance Ministry source claimed, adding that the provision will, however, not applicable for the development projects, securities, essential services and those part of the local elections.

The government currently provides 207 liters of fuel to minister-level, 100 liters each to secretaries and 70 liters for joint secretary-level government employees. Nepal has imported around 200 billion worth petroleum products from India. But with increasing petroleum prices due to Russia-Ukraine war, the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) is bankrupt also due to free fuel to various former ministers and political cadres.

Government removes quota on import of betel nuts, peas, peppercorns and dates

Though, it has been restricting the imports to ease the pressure on the foreign currency (forex) reserve, the government today removed the quantitative restriction on import of betel nuts, peas, peppercorns and dates.

Publishing a notice in the Nepal Gazette today, the government has removed the quota restriction for the factories, if these goods are to be used as raw materials by the factories concerned. According to the provision, the Department of Commerce, Supplies and Consumer Protection will be providing import licenses to the firms on the recommendation of the Department of Industry (DoI).

The depleting forex reserve has recently forced the government to take strong measure to restrict the import of various luxury items including automobiles and gold. However, the government has turned flexible to the import of high-priced goods, when the country is reeling under a critical forex shortage.

The domestic demand has been fulfilled by the domestic production, the farmers claimed, adding that the government move to ease the restriction has surprised them. They also suspected ‘red-tape’ in removing the quantitative restriction of the  betel nuts, peas, peppercorns and dates.

“Taking advantage of the provision of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement, many Nepali traders are found importing the goods from third countries to resell them in the Indian market,” the farmers said. As the SAFTA has a zero tariff provision on goods exported from underdeveloped countries like Nepal, Nepali traders have been importing these goods from third countries paying minimum tariffs and then ‘exporting’ as the finished product to India with zero tariffs. The government had, thus, put the quantitative restriction on import of these goods.

Government promises to provide fertilizer by mid-January

 Though, it has failed repeatedly, the government has promised to bring chemical fertilizer from Bangladesh by mid-January.

Agriculture Inputs Company Ltd (AICL) today claimed that it will import chemical fertilizers – which Bangladesh is providing to Nepal on a refundable basis – by mid-January. 

Last week, on December 20, the two governments reached an agreement for the purchase of 50,000 metric tonnes of chemical fertilizer through the G2G mechanism. The state-owned enterprise – after several failed attempts – reiterated that it opened a letter of credit (LC) last week to import fertilizers. “The company has already selected Gentrad FZF Company of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to transport chemical fertilizers from Bangladesh,” according to a press note issued by the company. “The AICL – through international bidding on September 19 – awarded the shipping contract to the company.”

The company is purchasing fertilizers at the $259.19 per metric tonne, according to the company that has promised the farmers to provide fertilizers for winter crops.

Earlier, the companies – that had bagged contract – failed to deliver fertilizer. “The government had contracted Shailung Enterprises of Lalitpur and Honiko Multiple of Kathmandu, to supply chemical fertilizers for last rainy season,” according to the company. “However, they had failed to deliver fertilizer.”

After their failure, the government started process to import fertilizers from Bangladesh with a promise to refund it later. But as the export company failed to provide fertilizer forcing the government to sign government-to-government contract to import the fertilizer.

Nepal imports Rs 5 billion rice in a month

 Despite claiming to be an agricultural country, Nepal has imported Rs 5 billion worth rice only in a month, revealed the data of Department of Customs (DoC).

According to the data of Department of Customs, the country imported Rs 18.20 billion worth rice only in five months of the current fiscal year 2020-21. “In the four months, the country had imported Rs 13 billion worth rice.”

Though, the government claims to have been encouraging the agriculture production in the country with various programmes, Nepal has imported Rs 33.03 billion worth food items – in the five months of the current fiscal year – including rice, as the domestic production fell short to meet the growing demand for food in the country. “In the four months, the country had imported Rs 25 billion worth food items.”

The country neither has manpower – due to flooding of youth to the foreign employment – nor has it adopted to the mechanisation in the agriculture to boost the production and productivity, apart from comparatively expensive production cost compared to India. “Nepal has imported rice from India,” according to the department.

The cheap rice from India is making Nepali rice face hard times to get market, and lack of government policy push has made it even worse making Nepal the import economy largely also due to growing dependence on remittance that has fuelled the imports. 

Trade deficit narrows, though export receipt can pay for only 10 per cent of import bill

 Though, the trade deficit in the first five months of the current fiscal year declined by 10.91 per cent compared to the same period last year, the export receipt is enough to pay for only 10 per cent of import bill. “The country's export increased by 5.12 per cent to Rs 50.05 billion, whereas the imports declined by 9.59 per cent to Rs 525.49 billion,” according to the government data.

According to the Department of Customs (DoC), Nepal’s trade deficit came down to Rs 475.44 billion from Rs 533.64 billion – though not remarkable, and also conditional not due to government policy push – during mid-July and mid-December as a result of a fall in import and a rise in export. The fall in imports has provided some cushion to the country’s foreign currency reserve that is being spent to imports merchandise.

Despite the increase in export earnings, the government is going to miss its target of export earnings to more than Rs 100 billion by 2020.

Nepal’s 70.65 per cent of total international trade worth Rs 575.44 billion is with India, the data revealed, adding that in terms of import too, some 65.78 per cent of Nepal’s total import is with the southern neighbour. “Nepal has a trade deficit with 112 of its 136 trading partner countries across the globe, and has a favourable trade balance with the remaining 24 countries in the five months of the current fiscal year 2020-21.”

Supreme Court issues show-cause on tax rise on electric vehicles

The Supreme Court today issued a show-cause order against the government decision to raise the taxes on electric vehicles (EVs).
The government – through the budget for the current fiscal year 2020-21 – has increased the customs duty from 10 per cent to 80 per cent and excise duty from five per cent to 80 per cent despite its tall claims of promoting the clean energy and substitute the import of petroleum products that is the largest import of the country.
Due to the hike in the customs and excise duty, traders have stopped import of electric vehicles lately. A single bench of the Supreme Court Justice Ananda Mohan Bhattarai has issued a show-cause order showing concern on the tax hike in electric vehicles as a serious matter. Claiming that the rise in tax has made electric vehicles unaffordable to the general people, Jury Nepal – a non-government organisation – has filed a writ petition against the government move.
The provision – to raise tax on electric vehicles by discouraging the use of environment-friendly automobiles – has been not only against the government’s own policy to substitute the fossil-fuel vehicle by 2030, and also Prime Minister’s pledge to promote the clean energy through the use of electric vehicles.
The government move has also been criticised on the ground that it will hit the aspiration of making the country self-reliant in energy supply and reduce the ballooning trade deficit by substituting the import of fossil fuel.
However, finance minister Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada has been defending his move – to increase taxes on electric vehicle against the government policy – claiming that the government is compelled to revoke the scheme to check misuse of the government package due to surge in imports of luxury electric cars.

Palm oil tops the export basket

Export of high-value products – identified by Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) – dropped by 6 per cent year-on-year to Rs14.8 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year, though government has prepared the NTIS list with much hope and expectation.
The government – with the help of development partners – has prepared NTIS 2016, the third-generation trade integration strategy, with nine high-value products and three services to bridge the ballooning trade deficit. However, a non-NTIS product – palm oil – has topped the list of export basket failing the government’s home work of years. 
According to the Trade and Export Promotion Centre (TEPC), palm oil exports contributes to 25 per cent of the total exports as it rose to Rs 11.5 billion – in the first five months – also nearly eight times the amount shipped in the same period last year.
Tariff exemptions on Nepali exports to India under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) Agreement have domestic traders an incredible advantage. As countries outside of South Asia are slapped with tariffs of 54 per cent on palm oil and 45 per cent on soybean oil, Nepali traders took the advantage of tariff difference to push exports of palm oil and soybean oil to India, according to the World Bank Nepal Development Update released in December. “Nepal capitalised on the arbitrage opportunity and significantly increased exports of the two products,” it reads, adding that it might, however, not be a sustainable option in the long run. “The export performance of products under the NTIS including all fabrics, textile, yarn and rope, cardamom, carpet, footwear, ginger, leather, medicinal and aromatic plants, pashmina, and tea was dismal in the last fiscal year, contracting by 4.8 per cent year-on-year compared with an expansion of 17.9 per cent year-on-year in the fiscal year 2017-18.”
The high-value products – under NTIS – also dropped due to a fall in production, eroding competitiveness of Nepali products because of lack of inspection and quality checks. Though, large cardamom exports soared by 50.7 per cent to Rs 1.86 billion, shipments of all other products including ginger, tea, medicinal and aromatic plants, fabrics, yarn, textiles, rope, leather, footwear, pashmina and carpets were down, compared to the same period last fiscal year.
Exports of pashmina – one of the ‘pride products’ – declined by 17 per cent to Rs 1 billion due to a lack of effective branding and promotional activities in the international market.
The TEPC data reveals that ginger exports slipped by 14.65 per cent to Rs 236 million, whereas tea plunged by 24.88 per cent to Rs 1.45 billion despite 5 per cent cash incentive on exports of processed tea, large cardamom, ginger, leather goods, processed medicinal herbs and oil products with value addition of at least 50 per cent.
According to the World Bank, Nepal’s export value to GDP ratio reached 1.1 per cent, lower than the 4 per cent target set for 2020, due to a lack of raw materials, skilled manpower and required infrastructure like processing centres, lab testing and storage facilities.
The sharp rise in exports of palm oil, which has no ‘value addition’, could largely impact Nepali farmers as it could offset the demand for Nepali products but traders keep exploiting easy loopholes on foreign products that yield them higher profits, and the incumbent government is also encouraging them to show off the increased exports during its tenure.
Time and again, traders have been taking advantage of the duty difference but it has not been sustainable business as there have been instances of betel-nut, vegetable ghee, and many more. 

Trade deficit down by 8.9 per cent

Trade deficit fell by 8.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 414 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20 due to a sharp drop in imports of petroleum products, iron and steel, aircraft and aircraft parts and vehicles.
According to Department of Customs (DoC), imports dropped by 6.92 per cent to Rs 450.29 billion, whereas exports swelled by 23.90 per cent year-on-year to Rs 36.27 billion – totaling the foreign trade to Rs 486.57 billion – between mid-July and mid-November.
The drop in imports – the fourth consecutive month in the current fiscal year – has also resulted in a reduction in the trade deficit though it has hit the revenue mobilisation target of the government. However, there is no cause for celebration as the increase in exports of a single product – palm oil – is not the domestic product as Nepal does not produce palm oil. Palm oil is imported from third country and then re-exported to India as traders are cashing in on the tariff difference between Nepal and India. The data shows that palm oil accounts for nearly one-fourth of the total export.
Imports of iron and steel – the key construction materials – dropped sharply by 33 per cent to Rs 52.65 billion in the first four months, though the drop in the import of iron and steel does not augur well as it shows that construction activities in the country are slowing down.
Likewise, imports of fuel and bitumen also fell by more than 15 per cent as the country imported fuel and bitumen worth Rs 65.21 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year. Similarly, imports of aircraft and parts also reduced pulling the imports figure down. According to customs data, imports of aircraft and parts dropped by 39 per cent to Rs 10.68 billion, whereas automobile imports dropped by more than 6 per cent to Rs 34.74 billion due to the government’s unfriendly policy towards auto mobile sector.
The central bank has also fixed the down payment for vehicle loans at 50 per cent of the value discouraging the auto imports. In the past, the down payment on a car was as low as 10 per cent.

Fossil fuel still accounts for one fifth of total import bill

Despite smooth electricity supply, country’s dependency on fossil fuel has not decreased. “The share of import bills of petroleum products still accounts for 20 per cent of the total import bill worth Rs 207.41 billion,” according to the central bank.
According to Current Macroeconomic Situation of three months, Nepal paid Rs 41.36 billion – during mid July-mid October of the current fiscal year – for petroleum import, Rs 8.22 billion less, from Rs 49.58 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year 2018-19.
But the import bill of petroleum products drop is not due to less consumption rather due to falling price in the international market that determines the price in the domestic market. Nepal spent 16.6 per cent less in import of petroleum products – in the first three months of the current fiscal year 2019-20 compared to the same period last fiscal year – though the import value has increased by 7 per cent.
Though, the import bill – in monetary value – has dropped, the consumption volume has gone up, according to the data of Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) that revealed that the import volume of fuel including petrol, diesel, kerosene, air turbine fuel and cooking gas increased to 789,144 kiloliters (kl) from 736,105 kl in the same period of the last fiscal year.
The import value is down also due to the variation of the exchange rate of the Nepali currency against the US dollar. The price of the petroleum products depends on the price in the international market.
According to the NOC, price of crude oil in the international market had swelled to $86 per barrel in October from $65 per barrel last July. However, the petroleum prices in the same period this year dropped to around $67 per barrel.
Though, the monetary value of import is less, the volume – especially of diesel – has not gone down. Demand for diesel is rising in the recent days due to construction-related works in hydropower projects unlike the demand from industrial sectors earlier, according to state oil monopoly. “In the first quarter, import of petrol increased to 183,026 kl from 160,846 kl, diesel increased to 412,563 kl from 393,601 kl while import of cooking gas also surged to 127,628 tonnes from 116,546 tonnes in the same period of the last fiscal year,” the NOC data revealed.

Onion prices hit record Rs 200 per kg

Onion prices touched a record Rs 200 per kilogram (kg) in the markets.
The four times price hike of the onion – in the last three months – is attributed to the short supply from the northern neighbour. Nepal is dependent on imported onions from India due to inadequate domestic production. But India imposed a ban on the export of onion – last month – due to lack of adequate supply back home.
Onion is one of most important vegetables imported from India as Nepal has imported Rs 5.62 billion worth onions from India in the last fiscal year. Nepal imported onions worth Rs 1.3 billion during the first three months of the current fiscal year beginning mid-July compared to Rs 1.2 billion in the same period in the last fiscal year, according to the Department of Customs.
“There is no sign of prices cooling down any time soon,” according to the vegetable sellers. Likewise, the consumers have also started skipping the onion from their daily meals as the prices have increased beyond their imagination.
The prices in India have shot up due to a shortage triggered by unseasonal rainfall leading to crop damage in the main onion growing zones in Maharashtra of India, the Indian media reported, adding that traders fear a further spike in onion prices as a high amount of crops have been damaged by the unseasonal November rains.
But in Nepal, some traders have started importing onions from China to meet the short supply. “But Chinese onions are not as tasty as Indian onions,” according to the consumers.

BoP records Rs 14.43 billion surplus

The balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 14.43 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year despite a drop in remittance.
According to the Macroeconomic Status – of mid-July to mid-October – report published by the central bank today, the BoP remained in surplus in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to a deficit of Rs 35.42 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year.
The central bank report also revealed that remittance inflows decreased by 4.9 per cent to Rs 230.24 billion, which could have hit the BoP situation but due to surging exports by 14.4 per cent to Rs 27.17 billion the BoP remained surplus.
Though, the export witnessed an increament, the sustainability is under doubt as the largets export product palm oil is not the domestic product and is reexported by importing from Malaysia and Indonesia.
“Mainly exports of palm oil, cardamom, medicine (ayurvedic), jute goods, yarn (polyester and others), among others, increased while exports of zinc sheet, juice, readymade garments, woollen carpets, wires, among others, decreased in the review period,” the report reads, adding that the merchandise imports slumped by 10.3 per cent to Rs 334.95 billion – in first three months of current fiscal year – against a rise of 43.6 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year. “However, the current account registered a deficit of Rs 27.18 billion in the review period compared to Rs 81.74 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year.”
But the trade deficit fell by 12 per cent year-on-year to Rs 307.78 billion in the first quarter largely due to a sharp drop in the import of electrical equipment, readymade garments, petroleum products and gold.
The export-import ratio increased to 8.1 per cent in the review period from 6.4 per cent in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year, the report adds.
Imports from China increased by 11.6 per cent while imports from India and other countries decreased by 12.2 per cent and 19.1 per cent, respectively, the report reads, adding that the share of electrical equipment in total imports fell to 1.9 per cent from 4.5 per cent. “Nepal imported electrical equipment worth Rs 16.81 billion in the first three months of the last fiscal year but in the first three months of the current fiscal year, electrical equipment imports dropped by 61.90 per cent to Rs 6.40 billion.”
Likewise, readymade garment imports dropped by half to Rs 10 billion from Rs 19.86 billion of the last fiscal year’s first quarter. “Gold imports plunged by 99 per cent to Rs 597 million due to increasing price of the precious yellow metal lately.”
According to the report, fruit imports dropped to Rs 2.99 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year compared to Rs 3.76 billion in the same period last fiscal year. “Vegetable imports also dropped to Rs 3.82 billion from Rs 4.40 billion.”
Exports to India increased 35.8 percent while exports to China and other countries decreased 19.9 and 11.7 percent respectively. “Large cardamom export jumped to Rs 1.25 billion in the first three months of this fiscal year from Rs 767 million in same period last fiscal year.”
Nepal imported crude palm oil worth Rs 5.05 billion, which is not produced in Nepal and exported processed oil valued at Rs 5.75 billion.

Government fixes support price of coffee

The National Tea and Coffee Development Board (NTCDB) – on the occasion of the 15th National Coffee Day – today fixed the support price of coffee for the current fiscal year.
Celebrating the National Coffee Day in Gulmi today, NTCDB has set the support price for six varieties of coffee, according to the board that has fixed the price of fresh cherry ‘A’ grade coffee (organic certified) at Rs 85 per kg while ‘B’ grade coffee (organic uncertified) Rs 75 per kg, Rs 5 less than last year. “Last year, price of ‘A’ grade fresh cherry and ‘B’ grade fresh cherry is set at Rs 85 per kg and Rs 80 per kg, respectively.”
Likewise, the board has set Rs 425 per kg for parchment ‘A’ grade coffee and Rs 375 per kg for parchment ‘B’ grade coffee. Last year, the price was settled at Rs 425 per kg and Rs 410 per kg for ‘A’ grade parchment coffee and ‘B’ grade parchment coffee, respectively.
Likewise, the board has set Rs 140 per kg for dry cherry ‘A’ grade coffee and Rs 90 per kg for dry cherry ‘B’ grade coffee. In previous year price of ‘A’ grade and ‘B’ grade dry cherry was set at Rs 140 per kg and Rs 100 per kg, respectively.
The board fixes the floor price annually to ensure that farmers get a reasonable rate for their crop and are not exploited by middlemen in the supply chain. The coffee farmers, however, say that they have no complaints about the reduction in the minimum support price for this year, but they want the government to formulate policy to increase production to benefit from rising market demand.
According to the board, the price of coffee has been fixed based on the investment cost of coffee farming. Currently, coffee farming is done on around 61,228 hectares of land. However, a total of 1.1 million hectares of land across the country is suitable for coffee farming, according to the board. Some districts like Gulmi, Palpa, Argakhanchi, Lalitpur, Tanahu, Kavre, Sindhupalchowk, Lamjung, Kaski, Gorkha, Syangja, Parbat and Baglung are successfully growing and producing coffee beans and production has been increasing gradually.
According to the board, Nepal exported a total of 530 tonnes of coffee in the last fiscal year while in the fiscal year 2017-18 a total of 513 tonnes of coffee had been exported to different countries. While the country had exported coffee worth Rs 996 million, coffee worth Rs 980 million had been imported in the last fiscal year. Nepal is exporting coffee beans mostly to Japan, America and European countries.
Due to surge in demand, the earnings from coffee export increased by 6.28 per cent compared to a a rise of 49 per cent of coffee imports in the fiscal year 2018-19.
Nepal exported Rs 99.61 million worth of coffee in the last fiscal year – up from Rs 93.72 million in a fiscal year ago in 2017-18, according to the board. “During the period, Nepal imported coffee worth Rs 65.89 million and Rs 98.01 million, respectively.”
Nepal imported eight-folds to 1,262 tonnes in the review period, whereas exports remained fairly stable at 84 tonnes, which means Nepali coffee is expensive than imported coffee. Nepal coffee is recognised as one of the high value agri products in the international market. Nepali product costs up to $10 per kg abroad.
Coffee is grown in 42 districts of Nepal that produces and exports Arabica coffee, which is typically grown at an altitude of 1,000 to 2,000 meters. According to the board, Nepal produced 530 tonnes of coffee in the fiscal year 2018-19, compared to 513 tonnes in the fiscal year 2017-18.
According to Trade and Private Sector Development Project – a European Union-funded programme –1.19 million hectares of land in Nepal is suitable for coffee farming. “Of them, some 61,228 hectares have the potential to give high yields,” it revealed, adding that Nepal is utilising only 4 per cent of the acreage potential.

WTO members continue efforts to facilitate LDCs’ exports

The WTO Secretariat presented to the Sub-Committee the annual review of developments in preferential rules of origin conducted in the Committee on Rules of Origin (CRO) in October 2019. It said that the CRO's work is enhancing transparency, with most preference-granting members notifying to the WTO their respective rules of origin requirements based on a template agreed by members. The CRO also hosts discussions on substantive aspects of members' practices related to origin requirements and utilisation rates of their preferential schemes by the LDCs.
The chairperson, ambassador Van Daalen of the Netherlands, commended preference-granting members for the "continuous progress being made", particularly in terms of "enhanced transparency regarding notifications of rules of origin, as well as preferential tariff and import data". She added, "This allows in-depth discussions on rules of origin requirements and preference utilisation." Both the 2015 Nairobi and 2013 Bali WTO Ministerial Conferences adopted decisions to help LDCs benefit from preferential market access opportunities.
The Secretariat also introduced a new database recently launched in partnership with the World Customs Organisation and the International Trade Centre to help firms comply with rules of origin requirements. The LDC Group welcomed the progress made in the notifications of rules of origin requirements and members' collaboration in the analytical work carried out in the CRO.
The Sub-Committee also discussed trends in LDC trade and market access conditions based on the 2019 note by the WTO Secretariat. The share of LDCs in world exports of goods and commercial services stood at 0.94 per cent in 2018, slightly higher than in 2017 (0.92 Per cent). LDC exports continue to be influenced by world energy prices as their exports tend to be concentrated in fuel and mining products. Statistics have shown that the extent of utilisation of preferences by LDCs varies according to their destination markets. The LDC Group expressed concern with the growing trade deficit, which stood at $98 billion in 2018.
Moreover, members also reviewed the state of play in LDCs' WTO accession processes. The flexibilities granted to LDCs during their accession processes include transitional periods to put their laws and practices in conformity with WTO rules. The LDC Group urged members to follow the LDC accession guidelines adopted in 2002 and intensify efforts to conclude the ongoing LDC accessions. 
Currently, six LDCs in Africa and two in the Asia Pacific region – Bhutan, Comoros, Ethiopia, Sao Tome and Principe, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Timor-Leste – are negotiating their WTO accession.. Since 2004, nine LDCs including Afghanistan, Cambodia, Cabo Verde, Liberia, Nepal, Lao PDR, Samoa, Vanuatu and Yemen have completed negotiations to accede to the WTO.