प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहालको सत्तारोहणको एक वर्षः नेपालीले के पाए ?

 २०७९ साल पुस ११ गते प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल ‘प्रचण्ड’ले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाएर शपथ ग्रहण गरे । अर्थतन्त्र चाहिँ ‘दौरा न सौरा खल्ती’को अवस्थामा थियो ।

दाहाल सिंहदरबार छिर्दै गर्दा मुलुकको अर्थतन्त्रमा समस्या थिए । अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकहरु आशालाग्दा थिएनन् । अर्थतन्त्रमा शिथिलताको कारण बजारमा उत्साह थिएन । कारोबारको चक्र बिथोलिएका कारण बजारमा उकुसमुकुस थियो । कोभिड-१९ महामारीका कारण सुस्ताएको अर्थतन्त्रमा रुस-युक्रेन युद्धले थप जटिलता ल्याएको थियो, सार्वजनिक वित्त अनि आन्तरिक तथा बाह्य क्षेत्र दुबै चापमा थिए । आम्दानी बढेको थिएन तर महँगीले आकाश छोएको थियो ।

सरकारको दाबी छ : पछिल्लो एक वर्षमा अर्थतन्त्रका केही सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ ।

तर, २०७२ सालपछि लगातार बजेटको आकार बढ्ने अनि खर्च गर्न नसक्ने दीर्घरोगी संयन्त्रमा सुधार नआएका कारण प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले राजनीतिक जस लिने गरी सुधार भने गरेको देखिन्न । किनकि, धेरै सुधार सरकारको नीतिगत हस्तक्षेपका कारण नभई समयक्रममा आफैँ आएका हुन्, जुन टिकाउ हुन्छ भन्ने पनि छैन ।

सरकारको योगदानबिना सूचकमा आंशिक सुधार, बजारमा बढ्दो निराशा

अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको तुलनामा केही वित्तीय र मौद्रिक क्षेत्र सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ । सरकार गठन भएलगत्तै २०७९ पुस ११ गते बसेको मन्त्रिपरिषद् बैठकले अर्थतन्त्र सुधारका लागि विभिन्न नीतिगत, प्रक्रियागत र संस्थागत सुधारका काम अघि बढाउने गरी निर्णय गरेको थियो ।

सरकारले गर्ने यस्ता कर्मकाण्डी निर्णयले नेपालमा कुनै सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्न छोडेको धेरै भइसक्यो, बरु उल्टो नकारात्मक असर परेका प्रशस्त उदाहरण छन् ।

तर, यसपटक अलि फरक भयो, सरकारले सुधारका प्रयासका कारण केही आर्थिक सूचक सकारात्मक भएको दाबी गर्दैगर्दा अर्थतन्त्रको बाह्य क्षेत्रमा साँच्चिकै केही सुधार देखिएको छ ।

हुन त बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधारको दिगोपनामा प्रशस्त आशंका छ तर पनि रेमिट्यान्स लगातार बढेको तथा आयात घटेका कारण विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिमा सुधार आएको तथ्यांकले देखाउँछ । साथै, पर्यटक आगमनमा पनि उल्लेख्य बढोत्तरी देखिएका कारण केही टिकाउ हुन्छ कि भन्ने आशा गर्न सकिन्छ ।

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा कुल विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ खर्ब ९२ अर्ब ५६ करोड रुपैयाँ थियो । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिबाट १० महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ८.७ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने अवस्था थियो ।

तर, यस वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १६ खर्ब ९६ अर्ब रुपैयाँ पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चार महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा हाल सञ्चित विदेशी मुद्रा १३.६ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ११.३ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने देखिन्छ ।

हाल बढेको विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति नेपाली उत्पादन निर्यातबाट आएको आम्दानीका कारण भएको भए अर्थतन्त्र बलियो हुँदैछ भन्न सकिन्थ्यो तर त्यसो होइन । नेपाली उत्पादनको निर्यात घट्दो छ ।

आइतबार भन्सार विभागद्वारा प्रकाशित तथ्यांकअनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको मंसिरसम्ममा नेपालले जम्मा ६३ अर्ब २० करोड ७४ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको छ । तर, गत आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा भने नेपालले ६७ अर्ब ३० करोड ४५ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको थियो ।

मुलुकमा व्यावसायिक वातावरण बनाउन सरकार असफल भएक कारण उत्पादन नभएको मात्र होइन, रोजगारी पनि सिर्जना भएन । अनि उत्पादनशील युवा बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गए । बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवाले रेमिट्यान्स पठाएका कारण रेमिट्यान्स आयमा वृद्धि भयो । त्यसैले रेमिट्यान्स बढेको र त्यसैका कारण बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधार सरकारको नीतिले होइन, कुनीतिले हो ।

सरकारले रेमिट्यान्स आयको वृद्धिमा र त्यसैका कारण तत्काल अर्थतन्त्रमा परेका सकारात्मक प्रभावलाई आफ्नो ठूलो उपलब्धि मान्नु केटाकेटी पारा हो । अझ तथ्यांकमा नै हेर्ने हो भने त अहिले आइरहेको रेमिट्यान्सभन्दा धेरै आउनुपर्ने हो, यसमा पनि सरकार चुकेको छ । सरकारकै अव्यवस्थाका कारण हुन्डी बढेको छ । देशबाट पुँजी पलायन भइरहेको छ ।

राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा ४ खर्ब ७७ अर्ब ९६ करोड रुपैयाँ रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको छ । जुन प्रतिमहिना औसतमा सवा खर्ब रुपैयाँको हाराहारी हो । आफ्ना मानव संशाधन बेचेर विश्वमा कुनै पनि मुलुक धनी भएको छैन, नेपाल पनि हुँदैन । आफ्ना युवालाई रोजगारी दिन नसक्ने राज्यले राष्ट्रियता पनि जोगाउन सक्दैन ।

तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री भएको एक वर्षमा पनि दाहालले स्वदेशमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न केही प्रयास गरेको देखिन्न । दाहालमात्र नभएर, नेपाली राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका शीर्षस्थ नेतामा नेपालमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न कुनै हुटहुटी छैन । जसका कारण युवामा चरम निराशा छ र उनीहरु धमाधम विदेश जाँदै छन् । खराब नेतृत्वका कारण संघीय गणतन्त्र बदनाम भइरहेको छ ।

एक वर्ष पुगेको अवसरमा प्रधानमन्त्रीले सिंहदरबारभित्रै एउटा सर्भे पो गर्ने हो कि, कति जना वहालवाला तथा पूर्व उच्च कर्मचारीका सन्तान नेपालमा छन् ? कसैको व्यक्तिगत स्वतन्त्रतामा प्रतिबन्ध त लाउन सकिन्न तर यसबाट प्रधानमन्त्रीलाई कस्ता नीतिनिर्माताबाट सरकार चलाइरहेको छु भन्ने थाहा लाग्न सक्छ ।

नेपालमा रेमिट्यान्स पठाउने युवाको वर्ग नै फरक छ । जुन वर्गको उत्थानका लागि प्रचण्डले नेपाललाई एक दशक लामो द्वन्द्वमा होमे, त्यही वर्ग नेपालमा गरिखान नपाएर वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका कारण प्रतिमहिना सवा खर्ब रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको हो । अनि अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा सुधार आएको हो, सरकारको नीतिका कारणले होइन, हुँदै होइन । किनकि सरकारको नीतिका कारण कुन वर्गको उत्थान भइरहेको छ, जगजाहेर नै छ ।

हाल चालु खाता अनि शोधनान्तर स्थिति पनि बचतमा देखिएका छन् । राष्ट्र बैंककै तथ्यांकअनुसार कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा चालु खाता ९६ अर्ब ३८ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ । जुन चालु खाता २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा ३७ अर्ब ९१ करोड रुपैयाँले घाटामा थियो । साथै, चालु आवको पहिलो चौमासिकसम्ममा शोधनान्तर स्थिति १ खर्ब ४७ अर्ब ११ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ ।

यी तथ्यांक देखाएर जस लिनुभन्दा सरकारले वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवालाई धन्यवाद भन्नु पर्ने हुन्छ ।

किनकि वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा जाने ती ८० प्रतिशत युवा ऋण काडेर विदेशिने गरेको प्रवासी नेपाल समन्वय समिति र सेन्टर फर द स्टडी अफ लेबर एन्ड मोबिलिटी, सोसल साइन्सले गरेको ‘रिटर्न, विक रिइन्टिग्रेसन र रिमाइग्रेसन’ शीर्षकमा कामदारहरूको अवस्थाबारे गरेको अध्ययन प्रतिवेदनले जनाउँछ ।

‘ऋण लिएकामध्ये लगभग ५० प्रतिशतले ऋण तिर्न बाँकी रहेको देखिन्छ,’ प्रतिवेदन भन्छ । अझ वैदेशिक रोजगारीबाट फर्केर आएका आप्रवासी श्रमिकहरु बचत नभएका कारण थप आर्थिक जोखिममा रहेको पनि अध्ययनले देखाएको छ ।

सरकारले किन र कसरी जस लिन मिल्छ, जब उनीहरुमध्ये ८८ प्रतिशतले विदेशबाट कमाएको पैसाबाटै ऋण फिर्ता गर्ने गरेको पनि प्रतिवेदनमा उल्लेख छ । रेमिट्यान्स पठाएर देशको अर्थतन्त्र चलाइदिने उनीहरुको लागि यो सरकार होइन । जुन दिन रोजगारदाता देशमा समस्या आउँछ, त्यसै दिन उनीहरु फर्कन बाध्य हुन्छन् ।

सरकारले केही गर्न सक्दैन, प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले पनि केही गर्न सक्दैनन् । रुस पुगेर मृत्युवरण गर्न बाध्य नेपाली युवाका लागि यो सरकार होइन, यो देश पनि आफ्नो होइन । एक वर्षमात्र होइन, अर्को १० वर्ष शासन गरे पनि सरकार नेपाली युवाका लागि होइन भन्ने भाष्य सरकारले नै बनाएको हो ।

तेस्रोपल्ट प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दै गर्दा दाहाललाई चेत आएको हुनुपर्थ्यो कसको लागि प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दैछु भनेर तर यस्तो देखिएन ।

एक वर्षमा पर्यटक आगमनमा राम्रो सुधार देखिएको छ । सन् २०२३ को ११ महिनामा करिब ९ लाख ५४ हजार पर्यटक नेपाल आएका छन् । पर्यटक आय तथा पर्यटकको बसाइ लम्बाउन नसके पनि पछिल्लो वर्षमा बढेको पर्यटक आगमनले केही रोजगारी भने सिर्जना भएको छ । त्यो पनि कुन दिन फेरि घट्न बेर छैन । किनकि नेपालमा आउने पर्यटक नेपालको योजना तथा लगानीका कारण आएका होइनन्, उनीहरुकै योजनामा आएका हुन् ।

गएको एक वर्षमा तथ्यांकमा गज्जब सुधार भएको तर बजारमा अनुभव नगरिएको एउटा क्षेत्र भने महँगी हो ।

राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत वर्षको तुलनामा मूल्यवृद्धि घटेको छ । २०७९ मंसिर समान्तसम्ममा उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांकमा आधारित मुद्रास्फीति ७.३८ प्रतिशत थियो । तर चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा मुद्रास्फीति ५.३८ प्रतिशत छ ।

तर, बजार भाउ भने बढेको बढ्यै, बढेको बढ्यै छ ।

यसको अर्थ बजार भाउको वृद्धिदरमात्र घटेको हो, बजार भाउ सस्तो भएको होइन । प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालमात्र नभएर अधिकांश राजनीतिक दलका नेता तथा उच्चपदस्थ कर्मचारी आफैं बजारमा किनमेल गर्न गएको कतै देखिन्न, सुनिन्न, त्यसैले थाहा हुने कुरा पनि भएन । नागरिकका पीडा सुनिदिनेभन्दा पनि कतिपटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुने भन्ने कीर्तिमान राख्ने लहड भएपछि नारायणहिटी र सिंहदरबारमा कुनै फरक नहुनु स्वाभाविक हो ।

तर, फरक छः तेस्रो पल्ट शपथ ग्रहण गर्दा प्रचण्डले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाए । एक वर्षदेखि उनी सार्वजनिक समारोहमा दौरा सुरुवालमै देखिन्छन् ।

आजकल प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल अर्को एक धक्का दिने मुडमा छन् ।

शुक्रबार र आइतबार एउटा धक्का त दिइसके । प्रधानमन्त्रीले बिहीबार बक्यौता रकम नतिर्ने उद्योगको लाइन काट्न निर्देशन दिएलगत्तै शुक्रबार नेपाल विद्युत प्राधिकरणले जगदम्बा स्टिल्स, रिलायन्स स्पिनिङ मिल्स, घोराही सिमेन्ट र अर्घाखाँची सिमेन्टको बिजुली काट्यो । आइतबार थप ५ उद्योगको लाइन काटेको छ ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीले एक वर्षमा कर्मचारीतन्त्रलाई सयौं निर्देशन दिए होलान् । सयकडा एक यस्ता निर्देशन कार्यान्वयन पनि भए होलान्। तर, उद्योग नै धराशयी बनाउने निर्देशन एकैदिनमा कार्यान्वयनमा आयो, राज्य पूरै ब्ल्याकमेलरका रुपमा प्रस्तुत भयो।

स्वदेशी लगानीकर्तालाई ब्ल्याकमेल गरेको देखेपछि विदेशी लगानीकर्ता पक्कै नेपाल आउन चाहने छैनन् । तर, सरकार आउँदो वैशाख ९ र १० गते काठमाडौँमा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय लगानी सम्मेलनको तयारी गर्दैछ ।

नेपालमा लगानीको वातावरण कठिन हुँदैछ भनेर मलेसियन लगानीकर्ता आजियटा फर्कन चाहेको भर्खरै हो । नेपाल सरकारको दोहनकारी नीतिले लगानीकर्तामा चरम निराशा छ । बितेको एक वर्षमा लगानीको वातावरण बिथोल्न प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको सरकार र सरकारी संयन्त्रले भयंकर मेहनत गरेको छ ।

नेपालका उद्योग बन्द गरेर बेरोजगार बढाउने अनि खाडि पठाएर रेमिटयान्स भित्र्याउने । युवाले पठाएको रेमिटयान्सले सरकारले तलब खाने र राजनीतिक दलका कार्यकर्ता पाल्ने । योभन्दा खास्सा आर्थिक क्रान्ती के हुन्छ ?

यो नै दाहाल सरकारको प्रमुख उपलब्धि हो ।

एक दशकको द्वन्द्वले नेपाल आर्थिक विकासमा ५० वर्ष पछाडि पर्‍यो, अब एक वर्षको उपलब्धिले झन् राणाकालमा नै पुर्‍याउने हो । यस्तै विषम परिस्थितिमा नै १०४ वर्षे एकतन्त्रीय जहानियाँ राणाकाल सुरु भएको हुनपर्छ ।

सायद प्रधानमन्त्रीले भनेको अन्तिम धक्का यही होला, देश बनाउने ।

राज्य नै दोहनकारी भएपछि कसरी मुलुकमा औद्योगिक वातावरण बन्छ, उद्यमशीलताको प्रवर्धन हुन्छ अनि रोजगारी सिर्जना हुन्छ, यति बुझ्न जंगल जानु पर्दैन । यो कमन सेन्स हो ।

तर, अंग्रेजीमा भनिन्छ नि कमन सेन्स इज भेरी अनकमन । नेपालमा राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका नेतृत्वमा कमन सेन्स भएको भए नेपाली युवा रुसको फौजमा वा खाडी अनि मलेसिया जानु पर्दैनथ्यो । पूर्णरुपमा रेमिट्यान्समा आधारित सुधारिएको सूचक देखाएर फुइँ लाउने सरकारसँग नेपाल विकासको कुनै दृष्टिकोण, कुनै योजना छैन भन्ने एक वर्षले सिद्ध गरिसकेको छ ।

बितेका एक वर्षमा कतिवटा उद्योग खुले, कति रोजगारी सिर्जना भयो, नेपालीको आय कति बढ्यो, कति नेपालीले छाना र नाना पाए, त्यसको तथ्यांक हेरौं न ।

अनि जाजरकोटमा चिसोले कति जनाको ज्यान गयो, त्यो पनि एउटा सूचक होला नि होइन र ? २१औं शताब्दीमा जाडो र चिसोले नागरिक मर्ने देशको सूचकमा सुधारको के अर्थ ?

बढ्दो ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण

पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा सबैभन्दा बढी चर्चामा आएको विषय हो, सार्वजनिक ऋण । आजको मितिमा सरकारले ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण नै लिनुपर्ने बाध्यता सिर्जना भएको छ । हुन त यसमा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको धेरै दोष छैन । तर, उनले पनि बितेका एक वर्षमा सार्वजनिक ऋण थपे । किनकि राजश्वले सरकारी खर्च धान्न छोडिसक्यो । सरकारको एक वर्षको उपलब्धिमा यसको पनि त मूल्यांकन होला नी ।

सार्वजनिक ऋण व्यवस्थापन कार्यालयका अनुसार गत असार मसान्तसम्ममा २२ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३५ करोड २४ लाख रुपैयाँ बराबर रहेको सार्वजनिक ऋण कात्तिक मसान्तसम्म पुग्दा २३ खर्ब ५७ अर्ब ६ करोड रुपैयाँ नाघेको छ । त्यसैले सरकारले पुँजीगत खर्चभन्दा ऋण तिर्न बढी खर्च गर्ने बाध्यता आइसकेको छ ।

यतिमात्रै होइन, विगत एक वर्षको उपलब्धि ।

महालेखा नियन्त्रक कार्यालयको तथ्यांकअनुसार २०८० मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारको आम्दानीभन्दा खर्च बढी छ ।

मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारले ४ खर्ब ५२ अर्ब ९९ करोड ५७ लाख रुपैयाँ बजेट खर्च गरेको छ तर आम्दानी भने खर्चभन्दा ६९ अर्ब ७ करोड १५ लाख रुपैयाँ कम छ । सरकारले चालु आवका लागि १७ खर्ब ५१ अर्ब ३१ करोड २१ लाख रुपैयाँको बजेट ल्याएको थियो भने कुल १४ खर्ब ७२ अर्ब ४८ करोड ४७ लाख रुपैयाँबराबर राजस्व उठाउने लक्ष्य थियो ।

महाँकालदेखि मानसरोवरसम्मः आर्थिक कूटनीतिमाथि धार्मिक कूटनीति हावी

कुनै समय चीनका नेता माओत्सेतुंगको नाम तथा दर्शनबाट प्रभावित तथा प्रगतिशील राजनीतिको प्रचण्डपथ नै कोरेको दाबी गर्ने नेकपा माओवादी केन्द्रका अध्यक्ष प्रचण्डले प्रधानमन्त्री भएपछि पहिलो विदेश भ्रमण भारतबाटै गर्ने रहर गत वर्ष पूरा गरे।धेरैले उनलाई दक्षिणतिर ढल्किएको पनि भने। तर, उत्तरबाट दक्षिणतिरको यो ३६० डिग्रीको फन्को रातारात होइन, थिएन ।

नेपालको सत्ताको सिँढी नै दक्षिणतिर छ त उनको के दोष !

उनको तेस्रो पटकको सत्तारोहणबाट नेपाली नागरिकले के पाए, त्यो भिन्नै कुरा भो । तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुँदा पनि उनीसँग देश र जनतालाई दिनेभन्दा लिने नै कुरा बढी होलान् । यो भाष्य गलत होस् भन्ने कामना त गर्न सकिन्छ तर यथार्थ यथार्थ नै हुन्छ।

नेपालको आर्थिक विकासको एउटा प्रमुख साझेदार हो भारत । नेपालको वैदेशिक व्यापारमा भारतको हिस्सा ठूलोमात्र होइन, अर्थतन्त्रलाई तत्काल नकारात्मक वा सकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्न सक्ने छिमेकी पनि हो ।

त्यसैले हरेकपल्ट नेपालका प्रधानमन्त्रीको भारत भ्रमणबाट नेपालीले ठूलै उपलब्धि हासिल गर्ने आशा राख्छन् । यसपटक आफुलाई सुध्रिसकेको दाबी गरेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालसँग पनि नेपालीको ठूलै आशा थियो । तर, दिल्लीको औपचारिक मेजमानी खाएपछि २०८० जेठ १९ गते उज्जैन पुगेर उनी महाँकालेश्वरमा गेरुवा खास्टोमा आरती गर्दै गरेका देखिए ।

नेपाल र भारतबीचको द्विदेशीय व्यापार अभिवृद्धि गर्नेलगायतका थुप्रै विषयभन्दा उनका लागि उज्जैनको महाँकालेश्वरमा आरती महत्वपूर्ण भयो । दुई छिमेकी देशबीच आर्थिक कूटनीतिभन्दा धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा रुची लिनु प्रचण्डको बाध्यता हुनसक्छ।

नेपाल र भारतलाई आज आर्थिक विकासमा जोड्न सकेमात्र दुबै मुलुकको फाइदा छ । तर, त्यसो गर्दा दाहाललाई के फाइदा ?

भारतको औपचारिक भ्रमणबाट व्यापार, पारवहन, लगानी प्रवर्धन, ऊर्जा व्यापार तथा क्रस बोर्डर ट्रान्समिसन लाइन, सिँचाइ, बाढी तथा डुबान नियन्त्रण, कृषिलगायतका क्षेत्रमा केही सहमति भएका थिए । तर, उनको गेरुवा खास्टोले ती केही भएका उपलब्धि पनि छोपिए ।

यसरी माओको दर्शन र प्रगतिशील राजनीति एकाएक धार्मिक राजनीतिमा क्रान्तिकारी छलाङ मार्न पुग्यो ।

किनकि उनको धार्मिक कूटनीति दक्षिणको छिमेकीमा मात्र सीमित रहेन । अमेरिकाबाट सोझै २०८० असोज ६ गते चीन उत्रिएका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल भोलिपल्ट औपचारिक कार्यक्रम सकेपछि नेपाल फर्कन सक्थे तर एक साता घुमफिर गरेर मानसरोवर यात्रा गर्न भ्याए ।

अस्थिरताका पर्याय मानिएका प्रचण्ड छिमेकी मुलुकसँगको आर्थिक कूटनीति बलियो बनाउन छाडेर धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा ओर्लिए । जसकारण प्रधानमन्त्रीको भ्रमणमा नेपालले भारतबाट तथा चीनबाट लिन सक्ने जति आर्थिक फाइदा लिन सकेन।

त्यसैले बितेको एक वर्षमा नेपालीले देखेको ‘परिवर्तन’ भनेको झल्याकझुलुक गेरुवा खास्टोबाहेक प्रधानमन्त्रीको दौरा सुरुवाल मात्रै हो ।

External sector improves after 14 months

After 14 months, money coming into the country has recorded a surplus than the money going out of the country, which has improved the external sector.

According to the ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’, published today by the central bank, the Balance of Payment (BoP) recorded a surplus of Rs 12.43 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year as the remittance and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow increased over the period.

For the last 14 months, the country was facing BoP deficit. As of mid-October last year, the country was in BoP deficit of Rs 87.71 billion. In the US Dollar terms, the BoP remained at a surplus of $91.8 million in the first quarter compared to a deficit of 741.2 million in the first quarter of last year.

The BoP records current account, capital account and financial account of a country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world. It is one of the key indicators to show a country’s net balance in terms of foreign currency reserves.

With the BoP surplus, gross foreign exchange reserves also increased by 2.5 per cent to Rs 1.246 trillion in mid-October from Rs 1.215 trillion in mid-July. According to the central bank, the foreign currency reserve is sufficient for merchandise and services imports of 8.3 months.

In the first three months of the current fiscal year, remittance inflows also increased by 16.8 per cent to post Rs 281.05 billion,, adding Rs 94 billion in a month, due to impressive migrant workers outflow in the recent months of the current fiscal year, and also due to government’s inability to create jobs in the country.

Likewise, imports decreased by 16.2 per cent to Rs 401 billion against an increase of 63.7 per cent a year ago due to government and central bank’s import restrictions, according to the central bank data.

According to the central bank, capital transfer also increased by 34.8 per cent to Rs 2.59 billion and net FDI inflow recorded Rs 79.6 million. In the first quarter of the last fiscal year, capital transfer and net FDI inflow amounted to Rs 1.92 billion and Rs 5.07 billion, respectively.

Licenceraj hurts economy, accepts NPC vice chair

Licenceraj is hurting the economy, accepts the National Planning Commission (NPC) vice chair.

Speaking at a programme organised to mark 24th Annual General Meeting of the Society of Economic Journalists Nepal (SEJON) today, NPC vice chair Dr Bishwo Nath Poudel said that the Licenceraj has promoted syndicate. “The practice of licence being sold has distorted the economy,” he said, adding that licenceraj has also promoted monopoly. “There should not be monopoly in any sector including banking.”

Every sector including banking and insurance is suffering from the syndicate, the vice chair said, adding that there is no possibility of opening or closing bank or insurance companies due licenceraj, which has promoted syndicate.

In last few years, the government, backtracking from the liberal market policy, has started distributing licence, he added. “The licence distribution is the mother of corruption.

Poudel represents the Nepal Congress that has in the 90s started the liberal economic policy propelling the economy but the incumbent government, led by the Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba, is also backtracking the liberal economic policy and promoting the licenceraj.

He even asked the central bank governor Maha Prasad Adhikari, who was sharing the dias with him, to abolish the licence and liberal, again, the banking sector. However, central bank governor did not say anything on the issue. Lately, the Insurance Board is under scrutiny for distributing, licence for the reinsurance company and also micro-insurance company, though it has directed insurance companies to go for merger claiming that the number of insurers have increased compared to the market size. The inconsistent licence policy by the regulator has been promoted by the political parties and the government, as they have been blamed for taking bribes for licence.

The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) governor Maha Prasad Adhikari, on the occasion, said nothing about the licencing policy and claimed that the lonable fund crisis can be corrected only with an improvement in the country’s balance of payments (BoP) position. “The government’s increased expenses on a periodic basis will help BoP position to be positive,” he said, adding that the lonable fund crisis will continue to persist in the banking system. “The bank deposit has increased by Rs 167 billion during a month between mid-June and mid-July, due to increased government expenditure and inflow of remittance and tourist arrivals.”

Without blaming the central bank governor, as he used to do earlier, finance minister Janardan Sharma also claimed that the economy is gradually returning to normalcy due to the timely caution maintained by the government. “The increased remittance inflow due to nearing festival season, is also helping the economy to remain afloat.”

He also argued that the increase in remittance would help foreign currency reserves go up. “The finance ministry has already instructed all the concerned ministries to make this fiscal year's budget expenditure effective,” he claimed but failing to understand that the Finance Ministry only helps mobilise the revenue, its on the five ministries, related to the development works, to spend the budget. In the last fiscal year also, Sharma claimed to spend 10 per cent budget every month, but at the end of the fiscal year, the government failed to expedite the capital expenditure. His Finance Ministry, also failed to meet the revenue target for the fiscal year.

IMF residential office returns to Kathmandu, after 12 years

After 12 years of closing its unit in the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is reopening its residential office in Nepal.

The IMF has appointed Teresa Daban Sanchez as the resident representative for Nepal, according to the IMF that has been looking after Nepal affairs from the Delhi-based office currently. “The Delhi office of the IMF has been looking after the affairs of Nepal, India and Maldives,” it added.

Earlier, the IMF office left Nepal citing its own financial problem.

Recently, the multilateral development partner has also approved loans of $ 398.50 million under Extended Credit Facility (ECF) to Nepal as the country battles to maintain its foreign currency reserves.

With the return of IMF office in Kathmandu, the foreign direct investment is expected to get a boost, apart from building confidence for the domestic investors also, as it will help Nepal with budgetary assistance to push the depleting foreign currency reserve (forex reserve) up.

अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा सुधार आएन

 मूल्यवृद्धि ७ प्रतिशतभन्दा माथि

रेमिट्यान्स आय घट्दो

शोधनान्तर घाटा बढ्ने क्रम जारी

विदेशी मुद्रा संचिती घट्ने क्रम जारी

चालु वर्षको पाँच महिनामा पनि अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा कुनै सुधार आएको छैन भने झन् त्यसमाथि यसअघि नियान्त्रणभित्रै रहेको बजार भाउ पनि बढ्ने क्रम तीव्र बनेको छ ।

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार मूल्य वृद्धिदर ७ प्रतिशतभन्दा माथि रहेको छ । राष्ट्र बैंकको मासिक प्रतिवेदनअनुसार वार्षिक बिन्दुगत उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फीति ७.११ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । जुन अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको मंसिरको तुलनामा ४.१८ प्रतिशतले बढी हो । अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको पाँचौं महिनामा मूल्य वृद्धिदर २.९३ प्रतिशत रहेको थियो ।

सरकारले बजेटमा तथा राष्ट्र बैंकले चालु आर्थिक वर्षको मौद्रिक नीतिमा ६.५ प्रतिशतभित्रै राख्ने प्रक्षेपण गरेको मूल्यवृद्धि पाँचौं महिनामा नै उकालो लागेको छ । चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा सरकारलाई मूल्यवृद्धि काबुमा राख्न समस्या पर्ने केही दिन अगाडि राष्ट्र बैंकका गभर्नर महाप्रसाद अधिकारीले संसदीय समितिमा बताएका थिए ।

राष्ट्र बैंकले बिहीबार जारी गरेको तथ्यांकअनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पाँचौं महिनामा खाद्य तथा पेय पदार्थ समूहको मुद्रास्फीति ५.६७ प्रतिशत र गैर–खाद्य तथा सेवा समूहको मुद्रास्फीति ८.२५ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । २०७७ मंसिरको तुलनामा २०७८ मंसिरमा घ्यू तथा तेल, यातायात, दाल तथा गेडागुडी, शिक्षा र सुर्तीजन्य वस्तु उपसमूहको मूल्यवृद्धि क्रमशः २८.५२ प्रतिशत, १६.२५ प्रतिशत, ११.७९ प्रतिशत, ११.७८ प्रतिशत र ११.७४ प्रतिशत रहेको छ ।

मंसिर महिनामा तराईमा सबैभन्दा बढी भाउ बढेको देखिन्छ । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार काठमाडौं उपत्यकामा ५.९१ प्रतिशत, तराईमा ७.५२ प्रतिशत, पहाडमा ६.९५ प्रतिशत र हिमालमा ४.९१ प्रतिशत मुद्रास्फीति रहेको छ । जबकि २०७७ मंसिरमा यी क्षेत्रहरुमा क्रमशः ३.७१ प्रतिशत, २.३५ प्रतिशत, ३.९५ प्रतिशत र ४.२२ प्रतिशत मुद्रास्फीति रहेको थियो ।

तर, २०७८ मंसिरमा वार्षिक बिन्दुगत तलब तथा ज्यालादर सूचकांक भने बढेको छ । मंसिरमा वार्षिक बिन्दुगत तलब तथा ज्यालादर सूचकांक ६.५३ प्रतिशतले बढेको भन्दै राष्ट्र बैंकले अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही महिनामा उक्त सूचकांक ०.९९ प्रतिशतले बढेको जनाएको छ । चालु आवको पाँचौं महिनामा तलब सूचकांक र ज्यालादर सूचकांक क्रमशः ९.४४ प्रतिशत र ५.७१ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।

यसका साथै लगातार घटिरहेको रेमिट्यान्स आय पनि चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पाँच महिनामा पनि सुधार आउन सकेन । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार पाँच महिना रेमिट्यान्स आय ६.८ प्रतिशतले कमी आई ३ खर्ब ८८ अर्ब ५८ करोडमा झरेको छ । गत वर्षको मंसिरमा रेमिट्यान्स आय अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा ११ प्रतिशतले बढेको थियो ।

तर, मंसिरसम्ममा वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि अन्तिम श्रम स्वीकृति (संस्थागत तथा व्यक्तिगत–नयाँ र वैधानिकीकरण) लिने नेपालीको संख्या भने उल्लेख्य रुपमा वृद्धि भई १ लाख ३१ हजार ८२ पुगेको छ । वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि पुनः श्रम स्वीकृति लिने नेपालीको संख्या २९५.८ प्रतिशतले वृद्धि भई ९९ हजार ५८० पुगेको छ भने अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा यस्तो संख्या ७७.३ प्रतिशतले घटेको थियो । मंसिरसम्ममा खुद ट्रान्सफर ५.७ प्रतिशतले कमी आई ४ खर्ब ३३ अर्ब ९२ करोड पुगेको छ । अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा यस्तो ट्रान्सफर ८.५ प्रतिशतले बढेको थियो ।

यसका साथै अर्थतन्त्रको अर्को महत्वपूर्ण सूचक शोधनान्तर घाटा चुलिँदै गएको छ । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार मंसिरसम्ममा शोधनान्तर घाटा एक खर्ब ९५ अर्ब १ करोड पुगेको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको सुरुदेखि नै शोधनान्तर घाटा बढिरहेको छ । साउनमै ३८ अर्ब ७५ करोड शोधनान्तर घाटा थियो भने भदौमा ८३ अर्ब ४१ करोड पुगेको थियो । तर, असोजमा शोधनान्तर घाटा केही घटेर ७६ अर्ब १४ करोडमा झरेको थियो । फेरि कात्तिकमा एक खर्ब ५० अर्ब ३८ करोड पुगेको शोधनान्तर घाटा मंसिरमा एक खर्ब ९५ अर्ब एक करोड पुगेको छ ।

यसरी शोधनान्तर घाटा लगातार बढ्दा चालु खाता घाटामा पनि दबाब पुगेको छ । कात्तिकमा २ खर्ब २३ अर्ब १९ करोड रहेको चालु खाता घाटा मंसिरमा ३ खर्ब ६९ करोड रुपैयाँमा पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । समग्रमा अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकहरु सुधार हुन नसकेका कारण अर्थतन्त्रमा समस्या आउने देखिन्छ । बुधबार विश्व बैंकले पनि चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा आर्थिक बृद्धिदरमा संकुचन आई ३.७ प्रतिशत रहने प्रक्षेपण गरेको छ ।

यसका साथै, विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति पनि घट्ने क्रम जारी छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चौथो महिनामा ७.२ महिनाको वस्तु तथा आयात धान्न पुग्ने देखिएको विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति पाँचौ महिनामा आइपुग्दा घटेर ६.८ महिनाको वस्तु तथा आयातमात्रै धान्न अवस्थामा झरेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ ।

आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-०७९ को पाँच महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा बैंकिङ क्षेत्रसँग रहेको विदेशी विनिमय संचिती ७.५ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ६.८ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न पर्याप्त रहने देखिन्छ, राष्ट्र बैकले जनायो । २०७८ असार मसान्तमा १३ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३ करोड बराबर रहेको कुल विदेशी विनिमय संचिती घटेर मंसिर मसान्तमा १२ खर्ब १४ अर्ब ३ करोड भएको हो ।

Inflation soars, remittance and forex reserve deplete, BoP further in loss

The economic indicators have been continuously worsening since the begining of the current fiscal year 2021-22.

According to the current macroeconomic and financial situation report published by the central bank, inflation has been looking up, remittance and foreign currency reserve are depleting, and Balance of Payment (BoP) has seen further loss. 

"The year-on-year consumer price inflation has stood at 7.11 per cent in the fifth month of current fiscal year 2021-22 compared to only 2.93 per cent a year ago's same period," the current macroeconomic and financial situation report based on five months’ data ending mid-December, 2021, reads. "The food and beverage inflation stood at 5.67 per cent, whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 8.25 per cent by the end of the fifth month of the current fiscal year," the report reads, adding that the price of ghee and oil; transportation; pulses and legumes; education and tobacco products rose by 28.52 per cent, 16.25 per cent, 11.79 per cent, 11.78 per cent and 11.74 per cent, respectively on a year-on-year basis. "Inflation in Kathmandu Valley, Tarai, Hills and Mountains have also increased compared to last year."

As of the first five months, Terai witnessed the largest price hike of 7.52 per cent, followed by hill (6.95 per cent), Kathmandu Valley (5.91 per cent) and mountain (4.91 per cent).

The monthly consumer price inflation climbed to its highest in 64 months in December 2021, rising to 7.11 per cent year-on-year from 5.32 per cent in November, the central bank data reveals, adding that the last time the country witnessed the highest monthly inflation rate was in September 2016-17 at 7.9 per cent.

Experts warn inflation may jump to a double-digit figure this fiscal year. And so does the central bank's Inflation Expectation Survey published in November 2021. It showed that a majority of people expected average prices of goods and services to rise by a staggering 11.3 per cent over the next year.

Likewise, remittance inflows decreased by 6.8 per cent to Rs 388.58 billion in the fifth month against an increase of 11 per cent in the same period last year. "In the US Dollar terms, remittance inflows decreased by 7.3 per cent to 3.26 billion in the review period against an increase of 6.4 per cent during the same period last year."

However, the number of Nepali migrant workers (institutional and individual-new and legalised) taking approval for foreign employment increased significantly to 131,082 in the fifth month of the current fiscal year. It had decreased by 92.7 per cent in the same period last year."

Likewise, the number of Nepali migrant workers (Renew entry) taking approval for foreign employment department increased by 295.8 per cent to 99,580, which had decreased by 77.3 per cent in the same period last year.

The widening trade deficit and depleting inflow of remittance has hit the Balance of Payment (BoP). According to the central bank report, the Balance of Payment (BoP) remained at a deficit of 195.01 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year, way down from the deficit of Rs 150.38 billion in the first four month. It shows that the country faced a net loss of Rs 44.63 billion just in one month’s period of transaction with the rest of the world.

LiIkewise, the deficit of the current account also deepened further from Rs 223.19 billion to Rs 300.69 billion.

Another key economic indicator, the gross foreign exchange reserves also decreased by 13.2 per cent to Rs 1214.03 billion in mid-December 2021 from Rs 1399.03 billion in mid-July 2021, the central bank report reads, adding that in US Dollar terms, the gross foreign exchange reserves decreased by 14.7 per cent to 10.03 billion in mid-December 2021 from 11.75 billion in mid-July 2021. "Of the total foreign exchange reserves, reserves held by the central bank decreased by 12.9 per cent to Rs 1084.64 billion in mid-December 2021 from Rs 1244.63 billion in mid-July 2021."

Likewise, reserves held by banks and financial institutions (except central bank) also decreased by 16.2 per cent to Rs 129.40 billion in mid-December 2021 from Rs 154.39 billion in mid-July 2021. The share of Indian currency in total reserves stood at 25.1 per cent in mid-December 2021.

Based on the imports of five months of 2021-22, the foreign exchange reserves is sufficient only to cover the prospective merchandise imports of 7.5 months, and merchandise and services imports of 6.8 months.

In terms of trade, exports increased by a whopping 105.6 per cent to Rs 102.92 billion compared to an increase of 5.1 per cent in the same period of last fiscal year. At the same time, imports also increased by 59.5 per cent to Rs 838.41 billion. Over the period, the trade deficit soared by 54.7 percent to Rs 735.49 billion.  "The export to import ratio increased to 12.3 per cent in the review period from 9.5 per cent in the same period of the previous year."

During the first five months of the current fiscal year, imports from India by paying convertible foreign currency amounted Rs 92.34 billion, the report adds. 

Imports drop due to restriction, pull trade deficit down

 The country witnessed drop in imports, not due to government import substitution policy but because of the lockdown and restrictive orders.

“In the first month of 2020-21, merchandise exports increased by 8.9 per cent to Rs 9.62 billion compared to an increase of 27.7 per cent whereas merchandise imports decreased by 19.6 per cent to Rs 85.81 billion against a decrease of 11.5 per cent a year ago,” according to the macroeconomic report released by central bank today.

With imports continue to exceed exports, the total trade deficit also narrowed down by 22.2 per cent to Rs 76.19 billion in the first month of the current fiscal year 2020-21, the report reads, adding that such trade deficit had contracted by 13.9 per cent in the same period of last fiscal year. “The export-import ratio increased to 11.2 per cent from 8.3 per cent in the first month of the last fiscal year.”

Likewise, the balance of payments (BoP) registered a surplus of Rs 51.46 billion in the first month of the current fiscal year, against a surplus of Rs 6.05 billion in the same period of last fiscal year, according ot the central bank report. “The current account also remained at a surplus of Rs 25.41 billion against a deficit of Rs 9.34 billion in the same month of the last fiscal year.”

The central bank’s report also reveals that the gross foreign exchange reserves in US dollar terms increased to $12.02 billion in mid-August 2020 from $11.65 billion in mid-July 2020. “With this, the foreign exchange adequacy has increased significantly.”

The foreign exchange (Forex) reserves – based on the imports of the first month of 2020-21 – is sufficient to cover the prospective merchandise imports of 17.3 months, and merchandise and services imports of 15.6 months, the report reads, adding that the ratio of reserves-to-GDP, reserves-to-imports and reserves-to-M2 stood at 38.1 per cent, 129.7 per cent and 33.8 per cent, respectively, in mid-August 2020. “Such ratios were 37.2 per cent, 105.7 per cent and 33.1 per cent, respectively, in mid-July 2020.”

The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has hit the government’s spending and revenue mobilisation hard. The federal government spent – based on banking transactions excluding direct payments and unrealised cheques – Rs 95 billion in the first month of the current fiscal year, against Rs 2.62 billion spending in the same month of the last fiscal year. Likewise, the government has been able to mobilise –based on banking transactions including the amount to be transferred to provincial and local governments – revenue of Rs 58.81 billion, compared to Rs 77.53 billion in the same month of last fiscal year. 

Similarly, the deposit mobilisation and credit disbursement of banks and financial institutions (BFIs) also dropped in the first month of the current fiscal year. “While deposits at BFIs decreased by 0.1 per cent compared to a contraction of 0.4 per cent in the same month of the last fiscal year,” it reads, adding that private sector credit from BFIs decreased by 0.5 per cent compared to a growth of 0.5 per cent in the first month of the last fiscal year.

Two-third majority government wastes yet another year, fails to boost economy

Despite being historically powerful and two-third majority government, KP Sharma Oil government wasted yet another year as economy failed to gather steam.
The past 12 months of the year 2019 have neither witnessed a remarkable achievement in economy nor in governance, despite the government has set an ambitious target of 8.5 per cent economic growth for the fiscal year 2019-20. Economic indicators are not so encouraging, though this is the second year of the incumbent government that has been making tall claims – of making Prosperous Nepal,  Happy Nepali – ever since it came to power.
First thing first, the budget implementation – as always – remains lethargic, policy implementation continued to be fragile and business environment not so impressive, and the most dangerous part is private sector is fast losing confidence.
Finance Minister Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada had defended the slow economic growth in the last fiscal year 2018-19 citing that the government throughout the year was focused on developing regulatory framework in line with federalism and the needs of the business community. He has to, however, find another excuse for the current fiscal year for not being able to meet the ambitious growth target of 8.5 per cent, as the economy seems not moving in the right direction to achieve his own target despite his tall claims of focusing on effective budget implementation, development activities and economic growth.
As always, the government failed to accelerate capital budget spending, which will directly hit the capital formation in the coming years too. According to Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), the government has, as of today, been able to spend only a mere 10.24 per cent – of Rs 408 billion capital budget –allocated for the current fiscal year 2019-20.
Likewise, the national pride projects including Gautam Buddha International Airport, Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project and Melamchi Drinking Water Supply Project expected to be completed within 2019 are yet to be completed. However, it also offers a hope for the next year 2020 as they are nearing completion.
The lifeline of Nepali economy, remittance has also witnessed a slowdown – in the five months of the current fiscal year – as it has dropped compared to the remittance inflow in the last fiscal year. Though, the number of outbound migration of the Nepali workers increased, remittance witnessed a fall by 2.3 per cent to Rs 304.97 billion until mid-November against an increase of 36.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year, according to the central bank data. However, Nepal is still one of the highest remittance recipients in the world with remittance inflow comprising almost equal to 30 per cent of GDP.
Though, the government claimed to have brought some reforms, Global Competitive Report 2019 published by the World Economic Forum in October has ranked Nepal 108th out of 141 economies as Nepal is the worst performer in South Asia in terms of competitiveness.
Likewise, the share market has also not been performing well since Oli appointed Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada as the finance minister. The share market failed to boost the investors' confidence as the market is under bearish trend since last two years.
Yet another mainstay of Nepali economy, the tourism sector has also not been performing well. The tourist arrivals, though has seen improvement, the count could not surpass last year, which will hit the Visit Nepal Year 2020 also.
Despite gloomy picture, there are some ray of hopes in the late months of 2019 as the trade deficit narrowed – though it seems not sustainable – and Balance of Payments (BoP) position remained in surplus of Rs 27.29 billion till mid-November against a deficit of Rs 57.33 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year. “The total trade deficit narrowed down by 8.9 per cent to Rs 414.02 billion in the four months of current fiscal year 2019-20, though such deficit had expanded 37.8 per cent in the same period of last fiscal year,” according to the central bank data that reveals that merchandise exports increased by 23.9 per cent to Rs 36.28 billion compared to an increase of 11 per cent a year ago, while merchandise imports decreased by 6.9 per cent to Rs 450.3 billion against an increase of 35.8 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.
The government has claimed that it introduced many policies to improve the business environment in the country but investors are still suspicious over effective implementation of the policies apart from a number of contradictory policies on tax issues that have discouraged the business community. Though, Nepal improved its ranking by six positions to the 94th position – out of 190 economies across the world – in Doing Business Report 2020 against 110th position in 2019, the private sector is losing confidence due to government’s anti-private sector move. 
Despite the political stability – that the private sector craved for in last 3 decades – the two-third majority government is creating fear in the business community instead of instilling confidence by also using government machinery to seek ransom from private sector.
 The private sector is more hesitant and losing confidence gradually due to various restrictive policies of the government that have provisions of imprisonment even for minor mistakes, apart from ransom seeking attitude, one of the prominent business person said, adding that despite stable government and reliable supply of electricity, the business community has hold all the investment plans recently.
Likewise, the government has also failed to crack whip on inflation as the consumer price inflation (CPI) stood at 5.76 per cent in mid-November compared to 4.15 per cent during the same period in the last fiscal year.
The economy, however, grew by 7.1 per cent in the last fiscal year, the third continuous year that the economy has expanded by over 6 per cent. And the economy is poised to expand by around 6 per cent in the current fiscal year, according to projections of development partners including World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Despite government’s effort to bring in notable amount of foreign investment, in the fiscal year 2018-19, Nepal received Rs 13.07 billion in FDI against the pledged Rs 24.99 billion. Likewise, as against FDI commitment of Rs 55.73 billion in the fiscal year 2017-18, Nepal was able to see only Rs 17.51 billion in actual investment. Nepal, however, received investment commitments worth Rs 10.76 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year, up from Rs 4.8 billion during the same period last year.

Trade deficit narrows by 8.9 per cent

The exports surged by 23.9 per cent to narrow the trade deficit gap by 8.9 per cent to Rs 414.02 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20, while imports fell by 6.9 per cent.
According to ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’ published by the central bank, Nepal exported merchandise goods worth Rs 36.28 billion, the first four months of the current fiscal year, compared to an increase of 11 per cent a year ago, whereas merchandise imports decreased to Rs 450.3 billion against an increase of 35.8 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
As usual exports of palm oil, cardamom, yarn (polyester and other), jute goods, medicine (ayurvedic), among others, has increased but imports of MS billet, petroleum products, gold, aircraft spare parts, cement, among others, decreased.
The central bank report revealed that balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 27.29 billion in the four months of the current fiscal year against a deficit of Rs 57.33 billion in the same period of last fiscal year. But the current account registered a deficit of Rs 37.3 billion against a deficit of Rs 88.43 billion in the same period of previous year, according to the report.
The number of Nepali workers – both institutional and individual, and also new and legalised, who migrated for foreign employment – increased by 5.6 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year. “The number had plunged by 39.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.”
However, despite the rise in outflow of Nepali migrant workers, remittance inflow dropped by 2.3 per cent to Rs 304.96 billion against an increase of 36.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.
Likewise, the year-on-year consumer price inflation (CPI) also stood at 5.76 per cent in mid-November compared to 4.15 per cent a year ago. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 7.96 per cent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 4.07 per cent,” the report revealed, adding that within the food and beverage group, prices of vegetables, fruits, meat and fish and spices sub-groups rose significantly, while prices of housing and utilities, clothes and footwear and education subgroups within the non-food and service group rose moderately in the review month.

BoP records Rs 14.43 billion surplus

The balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 14.43 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year despite a drop in remittance.
According to the Macroeconomic Status – of mid-July to mid-October – report published by the central bank today, the BoP remained in surplus in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to a deficit of Rs 35.42 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year.
The central bank report also revealed that remittance inflows decreased by 4.9 per cent to Rs 230.24 billion, which could have hit the BoP situation but due to surging exports by 14.4 per cent to Rs 27.17 billion the BoP remained surplus.
Though, the export witnessed an increament, the sustainability is under doubt as the largets export product palm oil is not the domestic product and is reexported by importing from Malaysia and Indonesia.
“Mainly exports of palm oil, cardamom, medicine (ayurvedic), jute goods, yarn (polyester and others), among others, increased while exports of zinc sheet, juice, readymade garments, woollen carpets, wires, among others, decreased in the review period,” the report reads, adding that the merchandise imports slumped by 10.3 per cent to Rs 334.95 billion – in first three months of current fiscal year – against a rise of 43.6 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year. “However, the current account registered a deficit of Rs 27.18 billion in the review period compared to Rs 81.74 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year.”
But the trade deficit fell by 12 per cent year-on-year to Rs 307.78 billion in the first quarter largely due to a sharp drop in the import of electrical equipment, readymade garments, petroleum products and gold.
The export-import ratio increased to 8.1 per cent in the review period from 6.4 per cent in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year, the report adds.
Imports from China increased by 11.6 per cent while imports from India and other countries decreased by 12.2 per cent and 19.1 per cent, respectively, the report reads, adding that the share of electrical equipment in total imports fell to 1.9 per cent from 4.5 per cent. “Nepal imported electrical equipment worth Rs 16.81 billion in the first three months of the last fiscal year but in the first three months of the current fiscal year, electrical equipment imports dropped by 61.90 per cent to Rs 6.40 billion.”
Likewise, readymade garment imports dropped by half to Rs 10 billion from Rs 19.86 billion of the last fiscal year’s first quarter. “Gold imports plunged by 99 per cent to Rs 597 million due to increasing price of the precious yellow metal lately.”
According to the report, fruit imports dropped to Rs 2.99 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year compared to Rs 3.76 billion in the same period last fiscal year. “Vegetable imports also dropped to Rs 3.82 billion from Rs 4.40 billion.”
Exports to India increased 35.8 percent while exports to China and other countries decreased 19.9 and 11.7 percent respectively. “Large cardamom export jumped to Rs 1.25 billion in the first three months of this fiscal year from Rs 767 million in same period last fiscal year.”
Nepal imported crude palm oil worth Rs 5.05 billion, which is not produced in Nepal and exported processed oil valued at Rs 5.75 billion.

Trade deficit narrows

Trade deficit narrowed by 3.1 per cent to Rs 211 billion in the two months of the current fiscal year 2019-20.
While merchandise exports increased by 25.9 per cent to Rs 18.5 billion in the two months of this fiscal compared to an increase of eight per cent in the same period of previous fiscal year, merchandise imports decreased by 1.2 per cent to Rs 229.50 billion, according to the Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal – based on two months’ data of fiscal year 2019-20 – narrowing the trade deficit gap, though in per cent only.
As the government tightened imports of luxury goods, imports of vehicles and spare parts fell by 9.3 per cent to Rs 16.30 billion, the data revealed, adding that oil imports also declined by 8 per cent to Rs 28.46 billion. The export has increased as the country witnessed an export of palm oil, which – according to the economists – is not sustainable.
Nepal’s imports from China, however, went up by 39.2 per cent due to an increased inflow of clothes, fruits and electronic goods for the festival season. Likewise, shipments to India jumped by 46 per cent while export earnings from India dropped by 17.4 per cent in the first two months of the current fiscal year. “Export earnings from third countries increased by less than 1 per cent.”
Likewise, earnings from the export of cardamom, cinnamon, handicrafts and thread to India almost doubled, apart from exports of Nepali lokta paper and its products and other handicraft items which also increased by a notable amount to third countries.
Similarly, the balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 8.83 billion compared to a deficit of Rs 25.45 billion in the first two months of the previous fiscal year.
Based on the imports of two months of current fiscal year, the foreign exchange reserves of the banking sector is sufficient to cover prospective merchandise imports of 9.6 months, and merchandise and services imports of 8.4 months, according to the report.
However, year-on-year consumer price inflation stood at 6.16 per cent in mid-September against 3.86 per cent a year ago due to increasing price of food. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 6.51 per cent, whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 5.89 per cent in mid-September,” the report revealed.
The government has targeted to contain the inflation under 6 per cent in the current fiscal year, but the increasing price hike has challenged the government target.

BoP records Rs 6 billion surpluses after over a year

The Balance of Payments (BoP) recorded a surplus of Rs 6.05 billion in the first month of this fiscal year – from mid-July to mid-August – compared to a deficit of Rs 24.77 billion in the same month of last fiscal year, according to the central bank.
The BoP has recorded a surplus for the first time since July 2018, due to increase in export volume and reduction in import, though the ballooning trade deficit has not seen any remarkable reduction. The Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation report of the first month of fiscal year 2019-20 also revealed trade deficit has declined by 11.5 per cent due to higher export earnings and a steep fall in imports, though the transformation in import and export patterns seems ‘unusual’ because the government’s policy adjustments has nothing to do with the change.
“The merchandise imports contracted by 11.5 per cent to Rs 106.73 billion against an increase of 54.3 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year, whereas merchandise exports rose by 27.7 per cent to Rs 8.84 billion compared to an increase by 3.2 per cent – in the first month of the last fiscal year – largely due to huge quantity export of refined palm oil. Nepal started exporting refined palm oil a few months ago as it imports crude palm oil. “The crude palm oil is refined and then exported again,” according to the traders, who were surprised to find out the increasing export of palm oil in recent months.
However, the government claimed that its policy to discourage import of luxury four-wheelers has bring the imports down. The government has doubled the excise duty on imported vehicles through the budget for the fiscal year 2018-19. The down payment on auto loans has also been jacked up to 50 per cent of the value of the vehicle. The central bank statistics revealed that imports of vehicles and spare parts during the review period fell by 20.3 per cent year-on-year to Rs 6.56 billion.
The reduction in the trade deficit has brought down the country’s current account deficit to Rs 9.37 billion, down from Rs 25.16 billion in the first month of the last fiscal year. “In US dollar terms, current account deficit remained at $84 million in the review period compared to $228.5 million a year ago,” the report reads, adding that the remittance inflows, though marginal, increased by two per cent to Rs 75.40 billion against an increase of 33.1 per cent in the first month of the last fiscal year.
Similarly, the country witnessed an increase in the gross foreign exchange reserves to Rs 1,064.64 billion in mid-August from Rs 1,038.92 billion in mid-July this year.

Country records Rs 67.4 billion BoP deficit

The outflow of money surpassed by Rs 67.4 billion in the last fiscal year 2018-19 due to a rise in imports that increased by 13.9 per cent to Rs 1,418.54 billion, according to a central bank report.
According to the annual macroeconomic statistics of the last fiscal year 2018-19 published by the central bank today, the balance of payments (BoP) remained a deficit of Rs 67.4 billion compared to a surplus of Rs 960 million a fiscal year ago.
The imports increased by 13.9 per cent to Rs 1,418.54 billion in the last fiscal year, whereas merchandise exports increased by 19.4 per cent to Rs 97.11 billion in the fiscal year 2018-19 widening the total trade deficit by 13.5 per cent to Rs 1,321.43 billion. The trade deficit stands at 38.1 per cent of the country’s total gross domestic product (GDP).
The central bank data revealed that the current account also registered a deficit of Rs 265.37 billion in the last fiscal year. “The current account deficit stood at Rs 247.57 billion a fiscal year ago in 2017-18,” the report reads, adding that the gross foreign exchange reserves decreased to Rs 1,038.92 billion as on mid-July 2019 from Rs 1,102.59 billion in the previous year. “Of the total foreign exchange reserves, reserves held by the central bank decreased to Rs 902.44 billion in mid-July 2019 from Rs 989.40 billion a year ago.”
The decision of reference price for the customs has helped capital flight, said an economist without wanting to be named. “The finance minister Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada claimed that the reference price will help check revenue leakage,” he said, adding that the commodity price is very unstable in the international market and the notorious traders got an opportunity for capital flight. “The decision of reference price cost the country dearly as it has put pressure on foreign exchange reserve.”
However, reserves held by banks and financial institutions – except central bank – increased to Rs 136.47 billion in mid-July 2019 from Rs 113.19 billion a year ago.
“The domestic credit expanded by 20.1 per cent in the last fiscal year compared to a growth of 26.5 per cent a fiscal year ago,” the macroeconomic report reads, adding that claims on private sector increased 19.1 per cent compared to a growth of 22.3 per cent a fiscal year ago. “
Though, the number of Nepali migrant workers – institutional and individual-new and legalised – decreased by 32.6 per cent in the last fiscal year against a decrease by 9.3 per cent a fiscal year ago, the remittance inflows increased by 16.5 per cent to Rs 879.27 billion.
The central bank macroeconomic report also claims that inflation remained at 4.6 per cent on an annual average in the last fiscal year. “Though the Nepali economy has been growing in the last three fiscal years at a higher pace than the average growth rate of the last decade, some of the macroeconomic indicators, particularly related to the external sector, are still worsening,” the report adds.
While the government has been harping about the above-average growth, economists claim that the current remittance-led and consumption-based growth is not sustainable. “The economy is estimated to have grown by 7.1 per cent in the last fiscal year 2018-19.”
Apart from boosting exports to improve the BoP position and bettering the growth, economists call for creating a favorable environment to attract private sector investment, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI), to make the growth investment and productivity driven. Despite the government's efforts to bring in foreign investment, the FDI inflow fell to Rs 13.07 billion in the last fiscal year 2018-19 compared to Rs 17.51 billion FDI a fiscal year ago in 2017-18.
Even the private sector investment – within the country – has been hit by shortage of loanable funds in the banking sector resulting to the lending rate going up to 16 per cent, which is very high.

Country records BoP deficit of Rs 90.83 billion

The trade deficit has ballooned by 17 per cent to Rs 1211. 96 billion, in the first 11 months of the last fiscal year 2018-19, which recently ended on July 16.
The merchandise exports increased by 18.7 per cent to Rs 87.83 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal 2018-19 compared to an increase of 10 per cent a year ago, according to the central bank that has reported the merchandise imports increment by 17.3 per cent to Rs 1,299.80 billion compared to an increase of 23.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year, according to the ‘Current Macroeconomic’ report of the central bank. “The trade deficit stands at around 37 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.”
The balance of payments (BoP) deficit has also stood at Rs 90.83 billion during mid-July 2018 to mid-June 2019, the report reads revealing that the country recorded balance of payments (BoP) deficit is pushed by the current account that has also registered a deficit of Rs 248.72 billion till mid-June of fiscal 2018-19, though such deficit was Rs 210.24 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year 2017-18. The current account involves the net value of trade in goods, trade in services, transfers and income from abroad.
Likewise, balance of payments (BoP) records a country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world under two subheadings, current account and capital account.
The BoP deficit has also put pressure on foreign exchange reserve, which has decreased to Rs 1,030.88 billion as at mid-June 2019 from Rs 1,102.59 billion as at mid-July 2018. In US dollar terms, the gross foreign exchange reserves dropped to $9.25 billion as at mid-June 2019 from $10.08 billion as at mid-July 2018, the central bank report stated, adding that the rising trade deficit has brought down the foreign currency reserves by 8.2 per cent to $9.25 billion. At this rate, Nepal has enough to cover the import of goods and services for less than eight months.
However, the remittance inflow has increased by 17.5 per cent to Rs 799.02 billion – the major source of the country’s foreign currency earnings for over two decades – in the first 11 months of 2018-19 compared to an increase of 7.3 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year. In US dollar terms, such inflows increased by 8.1 per cent in the review period compared to 9.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Likewise, the country also faced net loss of Rs 10.56 billion from the service trade. The central bank’s data revealed that Nepalis going abroad spent Rs 80.45 billion while the country earned Rs 68.63 billion from tourists who visited Nepal.
Under the capital account, capital transfer – an investment in purchase of fixed assets – registered at Rs 13.88 billion, down from Rs 15.02 billion a fiscal year ago. “The amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) that the country received also went down to Rs 11.81 billion from Rs 15.88 billion.”

External sector continues to worsen as BoP slips to deficit of Rs 68 billion

The balance of payment (BoP) has again slipped into a deficit of Rs 68.2 billion in the 10th month of the current fiscal year worsening the external sector position more.
Nepal has been facing BoP deficit since the last fiscal year mainly due to the rise in current account deficit and weak financial inflows. The BoP deficit was Rs 18.93 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year 2017-18, according to the Nepal Rastra Bank’s monthly report, ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’, based on 10 months' data of 2018-19 published today.
Painting a bleak picture of the external sector, the central bank report reads that the current account registered a deficit of Rs 221.4 billion in 10 months. “Such deficit was Rs 192.05 billion in the same period of a fiscal year ago.”
Likewise, Nepal has received Rs 9.47 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in ten months of the current fiscal year, down from Rs 14.15 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year, the report further reads, adding, “While the FDI has dropped, the remittance inflow, a major source of foreign currency earnings, jumped by 19.6 per cent to Rs 725.3 billion.”
Though, the growth in remittance has been increasing, it is insufficient to cover the whooping trade deficit of the country as the central bank data reveals that the trade deficit widened 19.7 per cent to Rs 1.10 trillion in ten months of current fiscal year 2018-19.
The merchandise imports increased by 19.6 per cent to Rs 1.18 trillion in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year 2018-19 compared to an increase of 21.8 per cent in the same period of a fiscal year ago. But, Nepal exported goods worth only Rs 78.53 billion in the same period of the current fiscal year.
Likewise, the central bank data also revealed that the foreign exchange reserves (forex) also fell to $9.42 billion in mid-May from $10.08 billion in mid-July last year. “The foreign exchange reserve is depleting in recent months as the higher external deficit was partly financed by drawing down international reserves,” according to the report.

Nepal posts Rs 64.68 billion BoP deficit

The outflow of money from the country has surpassed inflows by Rs 64.68 billion as the value of imports exceeded Rs 1 trillion mark, which is over 31 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), in the first nine months of fiscal 2018-19.
The macroeconomic report of the first nine months of the current fiscal released by the central bank today revealed that the balance of payment (BoP) remained at a deficit of Rs 64.68 billion compared to a deficit of Rs 14.6 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year. “In terms of US dollar, the overall BoP recorded a deficit of $568.3 million in the nine months compared to a deficit of $144.1 million in the same period of last fiscal year.”
Nepal’s import bill increased by 21.3 per cent to Rs 1,061.63 billion against increment in exports by 16.9 per cent in the first nine months of 2018-19 creating pressure on the overall BoP situation. As a result, the Nepal’s total trade deficit has widened by 21.6 per cent to Rs 991.81 billion, the central bank statics revealed.
Likewise, the current account has also registered a deficit of Rs 204.43 billion against a deficit of Rs 172.67 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year, the report reads, adding that consumer price inflation stood at 4.4 per cent in mid-April 2019 compared to 5.3 per cent a year ago. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 2.8 per cent in mid-April 2019 compared to 4.7 per cent a year ago, whereas the non-food and service inflation stood at 5.7 per cent in mid-April 2019 compared to 5.8 per cent a year ago.”

PM Oli claims miracle, fails to walk the talk

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli – addressing the nation marking the completion of his one year in office as the prime minister – claimed that his government has worked wonders in a year.
In his televised speech from the power seat of in Singha Durbar, Prime Minister Oli also boasted about his various achievements, dubbing the completion of one year in office as the ‘foundation year’ or 'zero year'.
While issuing a white paper on economy – by cherry picking data – a year ago finance minister Dr Yub Raj Khatiwada hinted at marking this year as a 'zero year,' apart from his budget that has also claimed to make the current fiscal year a 'zero year' for the prosperous Nepal.
But the key indicators – including Balance of Payment (BoP) and trade deficit – of the economy seems not following the governments 'Happy Nepali Prosperous Nepal' slogan. The BoP remained at a deficit of Rs.63.68 billion in six months compared to a deficit of Rs.6.66 billion in the same period of last fiscal year due to deficit in current account – that registered a deficit of Rs 152.16 billion by mid-January. "Such deficit stood at Rs 97.78 billion in the six months of last fiscal year," according to the central bank.
Likewise, trade deficit has also widened in the sixth month of the current fiscal year, compared to the same period of the last fiscal year. "In six months of 2018-19, merchandise exports increased by 10.3 per cent to Rs 45.41 billion – compared to an increase of 13.5 per cent a year ago, whereas, merchandise imports increased by 30.5 per cent to Rs 723.94 billion widening the total trade deficit further by 32.1 per cent to Rs 678.53 billion," the central bank data reveals. "The export-import ratio declined to 6.3 per cent in the six months from 7.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year."
Similarly, the capital transfer and FDI inflow to Nepal amounted to Rs 6.89 billion and Rs 4.36 billion – making it to a total of Rs 11.25 billion  – respectively, which is more than half the last year's six months. "The capital transfer and FDI inflow witnessed Rs 10.07 billion and Rs 14.33 billion – making a total of Rs 24.40 billion – in the six months of the last fiscal year," the central bank data reveals.
Though, the PM painted rosy picture of economy and boosted about his one-year achievements, even the share market has been not supporting the government claim. The share market – a mirror of economy and investors' confidence – has been looking down from the very first day of the KP Oli government's formation. Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) dropped by 8.21 points today – on the day of Premier's address to the nation boosting his achievements today – to close the market at 1112.87 points, following the trend of continuous decline since one year, from th every first day of KP Oli government.  The market also lost confidence as the government failed to initiate reform in the capital market, though it has been upgraded to online trading.
However, the premier did not spell a single word on capital market in his 28-page one-year achievement address today.
The PM, however, claimed that the economy will grow by 7 per cent – in the current fiscal year – as according to the planning commission the growth rate stands at 6.9 per cent in the six months. But his government – in the budget speech for the current fiscal year – has targeted 8.5 per cent economic growth.
The premier also went on to say that the government has already constructed 490-km road, 417 suspension bridges and registered 499 industries in last one year, but he did not spell a word on the gross foreign exchange (forex) reserves that has also depleted to Rs 1058.20 billion as of mid-January 2019 from Rs 1102.59 billion as of mid-July 2018.
Yet another setback for the Oli government is that his government has been stashing huge amount in the central bank locker, being unable to spend on development works. The government treasury is bulging with Rs 178.75 billion – including Rs 49.2 billion in Local Levels' account – as of mid-January 2019.
Though, the private sector was very much hopeful of economic revolution due to historically powerful two-third majority government of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli promised a moon, the delivery and governance has seen no remarkable change. One year down the line, Oli government acted like his predecessors with nine months in the power.
In almost last 3 decades – Excluding former king Gyanendra – Nepal witnessed 25 prime ministers. However, the political stability in the last one year could not bring policy stability hitting the FDI inflow and also investment confidence of the private sector.
The Oli government could not walk its talk though it had made tall promises of improving people’s livelihood, sustainable development, prosperity and good governance has become. 

Current account deficit soars to Rs 119.33 billion

Contrary to the Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli's claim – in the House couple of weeks ago – that the economy is faring well, a significant rise in the import bill and slower exports growth has put excessive pressure in the country’s current account lately.
According to the macroeconomic report – of the first five months of the current fiscal year 2018-19 published by the central bank today – revealed that the current account has registered a deficit of Rs 119.33 billion following a whopping rise in import of merchandise goods against a deficit of Rs 64.11 billion during the same period in the last fiscal year.
The merchandise imports have increased by 34.2 per cent to Rs 607 billion in the first five months of this fiscal year compared to an increase of 18.2 per cent during the same period in the last fiscal year. But the merchandise exports have increased by only 11.2 per cent to Rs 37.50 billion till mid-December in 2018-19 compared to an increase of 10.1 per cent during the same period in the last fiscal year, the central bank report reads. "As a result, the total trade deficit has further widened by 36.1 per cent to Rs 569.49 billion in five months of the current fiscal year, whereas the export-import ratio has declined to 6.2 per cent from 7.5 per cent in the same period of last fiscal year."
The import of commodities like petroleum products, vehicle and spare parts, aircraft spare parts, MS billet, machinery and parts, vegetables, fruits and rice has seen an increase, which pushed the import bill upwards. "Rising import has exerted pressure on the overall balance of payments (BoP) situation as it remained at a deficit of Rs 85.32 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year compared to a deficit of Rs 5.48 billion in the same period of a fiscal year ago," the report further reads, adding that the workers’ remittance has however increased by 31.9 per cent to Rs 376.59 billion in the same period against a decrease of 0.8 per cent in mid-December of the last fiscal year. "The consumer price inflation stood at 3.7 per cent in mid-December 2018 compared to 4.2 per cent during the same period in the last fiscal year."
The inflation rate has been at the exact level, the Prime Minister Oli had reported last month in the House, though the calculation of the inflation was not out by then. The central bank calculates the inflation rate prepares the macroeconomic report every month. It takes atleast one month to calculate all the economic indicators. But matching of the premier's early announcement of the inflation rate and central bank's calculation creates some suspicious on the central bank's intention and its wish to please the Prime Minister by putting the central bank's integrity, authenticity and national economic indicator's global acceptance. After intellectual's question on his misleading the data, the premier had then replied that the majority government led by him 'will create its own data'.

Nepal limits expenditure in India

The central bank today imposed a monthly limit on the amount of Indian Currency (IC) Nepalis can spend in India as the balance of payments (BoP) position of the country has been slipping into deficit for the last few months.
A visiting Nepali would not be able to spend more than Rs 100,000 IC every month while paying for goods and services in India, the central bank said, adding that it will help deal with the current account deficit situation.
Issuing a circular today, the central bank has barred class ‘A’ commercial banks and class ‘B’ development banks from allowing electronic payments of above Rs 100,000 IC per month from a bank account primarily to ease the foreign exchange reserve pressure of the country.
It is the first time that Nepal has enforced a limit on electronic payments for Nepali nationals in India. The policy applicable to prepaid, credit and debit cards of Nepali banks came into effect from today.
Currently, the central bank has set the cash withdrawal limit through cards in India at Rs 15,000 IC per day and a maximum withdrawal amount of Rs 100,000 IC per month. Apart from that, a Nepali national can also get Indian currency of up to Rs 25,000 IC while travelling to India.
The central bank move is a part of the policy adjustments that the economy was making to overcome economic crisis in multiple fronts, according to the central bank spokesperson Narayan Poudel. "The decision is taken to deal with the growing problem of current account deficit and the balance of payment crisis," he said, adding that the measure would however exempt payment in hospitals and pharmacies in India. "Similarly, the Rs 100,000 IC per month electronic payment cap also exempts the current cash withdrawal limit that Nepalis have been enjoying in Indian market."
Chief of the Foreign Exchange Management Department at the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) Bhisma Raj Dhungana said that NRB took the step to control capital flight that emerged due to the spending trends of Nepali citizens in India.
Apart from impacting the spending trends of Nepali consumers and tourists in India, the move is also expected to influence trade in the India-Nepal border areas where Nepali businessmen usually pay in Indian Currency.
Apartfrom the BoP deficit, the country has also been witnessing depletion in foreign exchange reserves forcing the central bank to impose a number of currency exchange controls.
Earlier in November, NRB had lowered the foreign exchange facility to $1,500 per passport for outbound Nepali travelers from the earlier ceiling of $2,500. The NRB had also reduced the limit on payments through Telegraphic Transfer (TT) to $30,000 from an earlier limit of $40,000.
According to the central bank, the BoP slipped into a deficit of Rs 57.33 billion in the last four months of the current fiscal year 2018-19, compared to a surplus of Rs 2.4 billion in the same period last fiscal year. Likewise, forex reserves have also dropped to $9.43 billion as of mid-November 2018 from $10.08 billion in the same period last year.

Central bank downplays flood loss

The central bank has said that losses triggered by floods and landslides in the second week of August will not hit the economy as hard as initially it was expected.
The country suffered record floods following torrential rain that continued from August 11-14 killing over 150 people and leaving 31 districts awash in water. The disaster completely destroyed over 43,000 houses and caused partial damage to thousands of other houses.
Initially the Ministry of Agricultural Development had estimated Rs 8.1 billion farm sector losses triggered by floods but later it revised the loss downwards to Rs 5.8 billion.
According to data, some 140,464 hectares of standing crops of paddy, maize, pulses, banana and spices were affected by the flood, while 37,757 hectares of standing crops suffered severe damage.
Likewise, fishes on 2,582 hectares were also swept away.
The paddy crop suffered the most damage with Rs1.72 billion, followed by fisheries (Rs1.54 billion) and vegetables (Rs1.28 billion), the data revealed, adding that the floods also killed livestock worth millions. “The torrential rains caused losses of stock and hit agricultural infrastructure in most of the districts in the Tarai,” reads central bank's latest Macroeconomic report. "However, timely onset of monsoon, normal rainfall in subsequent period, improved supply of agricultural inputs and steps taken by the government are likely to offset the output loss initially assumed."
Though, the economists have been claiming that the flood will hit the economy for next two years, the central bank forecast has raised the hopes.
Agricultural Development Ministry has decided to introduce a relief package of Rs 1.25 billion for farmers since the floods. The aid package, which will be rolled out by the District Disaster Relief Committees before Dashain, will be in the form of immediate cash grants and subsidies on agricultural inputs.
The grant and subsidy is also expected to offset losses suffered by the agricultural sector, which makes a contribution of over 30 per cent to gross domestic product (GDP).
According to the central bank, the industrial sector is also expected to perform better this fiscal year due to improved energy supply, smooth supply situation and the rise in foreign direct investment. "The successful completion of local elections has also improved the industrial climate," it reads, adding that hospitality sector is also expected to perform better in the current fiscal year, as occupancy rate of tourist hotels jumped to 75 per cent in the one-month period between mid-July and mid-August, which is considered as off-tourist season. "The government has also made fiscal transfer of Rs 225 billion – to the local bodies – that is expected to boost capital spending spurring economic activities across the country."
However, the government has not been able to meet its revenue collection target – due to slowdoqn in trading activities – merchandise exports have fallen, trade deficit has widened and both current account and overall balance of payments (BoP) are in deficit in the first month – between mid-July and mid-August – of the current fiscal year. "These developments, in case they continue, will pose policy challenges for macroeconomic management in the future,” the report adds.