प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहालको सत्तारोहणको एक वर्षः नेपालीले के पाए ?

 २०७९ साल पुस ११ गते प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल ‘प्रचण्ड’ले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाएर शपथ ग्रहण गरे । अर्थतन्त्र चाहिँ ‘दौरा न सौरा खल्ती’को अवस्थामा थियो ।

दाहाल सिंहदरबार छिर्दै गर्दा मुलुकको अर्थतन्त्रमा समस्या थिए । अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकहरु आशालाग्दा थिएनन् । अर्थतन्त्रमा शिथिलताको कारण बजारमा उत्साह थिएन । कारोबारको चक्र बिथोलिएका कारण बजारमा उकुसमुकुस थियो । कोभिड-१९ महामारीका कारण सुस्ताएको अर्थतन्त्रमा रुस-युक्रेन युद्धले थप जटिलता ल्याएको थियो, सार्वजनिक वित्त अनि आन्तरिक तथा बाह्य क्षेत्र दुबै चापमा थिए । आम्दानी बढेको थिएन तर महँगीले आकाश छोएको थियो ।

सरकारको दाबी छ : पछिल्लो एक वर्षमा अर्थतन्त्रका केही सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ ।

तर, २०७२ सालपछि लगातार बजेटको आकार बढ्ने अनि खर्च गर्न नसक्ने दीर्घरोगी संयन्त्रमा सुधार नआएका कारण प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले राजनीतिक जस लिने गरी सुधार भने गरेको देखिन्न । किनकि, धेरै सुधार सरकारको नीतिगत हस्तक्षेपका कारण नभई समयक्रममा आफैँ आएका हुन्, जुन टिकाउ हुन्छ भन्ने पनि छैन ।

सरकारको योगदानबिना सूचकमा आंशिक सुधार, बजारमा बढ्दो निराशा

अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको तुलनामा केही वित्तीय र मौद्रिक क्षेत्र सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ । सरकार गठन भएलगत्तै २०७९ पुस ११ गते बसेको मन्त्रिपरिषद् बैठकले अर्थतन्त्र सुधारका लागि विभिन्न नीतिगत, प्रक्रियागत र संस्थागत सुधारका काम अघि बढाउने गरी निर्णय गरेको थियो ।

सरकारले गर्ने यस्ता कर्मकाण्डी निर्णयले नेपालमा कुनै सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्न छोडेको धेरै भइसक्यो, बरु उल्टो नकारात्मक असर परेका प्रशस्त उदाहरण छन् ।

तर, यसपटक अलि फरक भयो, सरकारले सुधारका प्रयासका कारण केही आर्थिक सूचक सकारात्मक भएको दाबी गर्दैगर्दा अर्थतन्त्रको बाह्य क्षेत्रमा साँच्चिकै केही सुधार देखिएको छ ।

हुन त बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधारको दिगोपनामा प्रशस्त आशंका छ तर पनि रेमिट्यान्स लगातार बढेको तथा आयात घटेका कारण विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिमा सुधार आएको तथ्यांकले देखाउँछ । साथै, पर्यटक आगमनमा पनि उल्लेख्य बढोत्तरी देखिएका कारण केही टिकाउ हुन्छ कि भन्ने आशा गर्न सकिन्छ ।

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा कुल विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ खर्ब ९२ अर्ब ५६ करोड रुपैयाँ थियो । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिबाट १० महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ८.७ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने अवस्था थियो ।

तर, यस वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १६ खर्ब ९६ अर्ब रुपैयाँ पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चार महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा हाल सञ्चित विदेशी मुद्रा १३.६ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ११.३ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने देखिन्छ ।

हाल बढेको विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति नेपाली उत्पादन निर्यातबाट आएको आम्दानीका कारण भएको भए अर्थतन्त्र बलियो हुँदैछ भन्न सकिन्थ्यो तर त्यसो होइन । नेपाली उत्पादनको निर्यात घट्दो छ ।

आइतबार भन्सार विभागद्वारा प्रकाशित तथ्यांकअनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको मंसिरसम्ममा नेपालले जम्मा ६३ अर्ब २० करोड ७४ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको छ । तर, गत आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा भने नेपालले ६७ अर्ब ३० करोड ४५ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको थियो ।

मुलुकमा व्यावसायिक वातावरण बनाउन सरकार असफल भएक कारण उत्पादन नभएको मात्र होइन, रोजगारी पनि सिर्जना भएन । अनि उत्पादनशील युवा बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गए । बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवाले रेमिट्यान्स पठाएका कारण रेमिट्यान्स आयमा वृद्धि भयो । त्यसैले रेमिट्यान्स बढेको र त्यसैका कारण बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधार सरकारको नीतिले होइन, कुनीतिले हो ।

सरकारले रेमिट्यान्स आयको वृद्धिमा र त्यसैका कारण तत्काल अर्थतन्त्रमा परेका सकारात्मक प्रभावलाई आफ्नो ठूलो उपलब्धि मान्नु केटाकेटी पारा हो । अझ तथ्यांकमा नै हेर्ने हो भने त अहिले आइरहेको रेमिट्यान्सभन्दा धेरै आउनुपर्ने हो, यसमा पनि सरकार चुकेको छ । सरकारकै अव्यवस्थाका कारण हुन्डी बढेको छ । देशबाट पुँजी पलायन भइरहेको छ ।

राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा ४ खर्ब ७७ अर्ब ९६ करोड रुपैयाँ रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको छ । जुन प्रतिमहिना औसतमा सवा खर्ब रुपैयाँको हाराहारी हो । आफ्ना मानव संशाधन बेचेर विश्वमा कुनै पनि मुलुक धनी भएको छैन, नेपाल पनि हुँदैन । आफ्ना युवालाई रोजगारी दिन नसक्ने राज्यले राष्ट्रियता पनि जोगाउन सक्दैन ।

तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री भएको एक वर्षमा पनि दाहालले स्वदेशमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न केही प्रयास गरेको देखिन्न । दाहालमात्र नभएर, नेपाली राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका शीर्षस्थ नेतामा नेपालमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न कुनै हुटहुटी छैन । जसका कारण युवामा चरम निराशा छ र उनीहरु धमाधम विदेश जाँदै छन् । खराब नेतृत्वका कारण संघीय गणतन्त्र बदनाम भइरहेको छ ।

एक वर्ष पुगेको अवसरमा प्रधानमन्त्रीले सिंहदरबारभित्रै एउटा सर्भे पो गर्ने हो कि, कति जना वहालवाला तथा पूर्व उच्च कर्मचारीका सन्तान नेपालमा छन् ? कसैको व्यक्तिगत स्वतन्त्रतामा प्रतिबन्ध त लाउन सकिन्न तर यसबाट प्रधानमन्त्रीलाई कस्ता नीतिनिर्माताबाट सरकार चलाइरहेको छु भन्ने थाहा लाग्न सक्छ ।

नेपालमा रेमिट्यान्स पठाउने युवाको वर्ग नै फरक छ । जुन वर्गको उत्थानका लागि प्रचण्डले नेपाललाई एक दशक लामो द्वन्द्वमा होमे, त्यही वर्ग नेपालमा गरिखान नपाएर वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका कारण प्रतिमहिना सवा खर्ब रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको हो । अनि अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा सुधार आएको हो, सरकारको नीतिका कारणले होइन, हुँदै होइन । किनकि सरकारको नीतिका कारण कुन वर्गको उत्थान भइरहेको छ, जगजाहेर नै छ ।

हाल चालु खाता अनि शोधनान्तर स्थिति पनि बचतमा देखिएका छन् । राष्ट्र बैंककै तथ्यांकअनुसार कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा चालु खाता ९६ अर्ब ३८ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ । जुन चालु खाता २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा ३७ अर्ब ९१ करोड रुपैयाँले घाटामा थियो । साथै, चालु आवको पहिलो चौमासिकसम्ममा शोधनान्तर स्थिति १ खर्ब ४७ अर्ब ११ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ ।

यी तथ्यांक देखाएर जस लिनुभन्दा सरकारले वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवालाई धन्यवाद भन्नु पर्ने हुन्छ ।

किनकि वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा जाने ती ८० प्रतिशत युवा ऋण काडेर विदेशिने गरेको प्रवासी नेपाल समन्वय समिति र सेन्टर फर द स्टडी अफ लेबर एन्ड मोबिलिटी, सोसल साइन्सले गरेको ‘रिटर्न, विक रिइन्टिग्रेसन र रिमाइग्रेसन’ शीर्षकमा कामदारहरूको अवस्थाबारे गरेको अध्ययन प्रतिवेदनले जनाउँछ ।

‘ऋण लिएकामध्ये लगभग ५० प्रतिशतले ऋण तिर्न बाँकी रहेको देखिन्छ,’ प्रतिवेदन भन्छ । अझ वैदेशिक रोजगारीबाट फर्केर आएका आप्रवासी श्रमिकहरु बचत नभएका कारण थप आर्थिक जोखिममा रहेको पनि अध्ययनले देखाएको छ ।

सरकारले किन र कसरी जस लिन मिल्छ, जब उनीहरुमध्ये ८८ प्रतिशतले विदेशबाट कमाएको पैसाबाटै ऋण फिर्ता गर्ने गरेको पनि प्रतिवेदनमा उल्लेख छ । रेमिट्यान्स पठाएर देशको अर्थतन्त्र चलाइदिने उनीहरुको लागि यो सरकार होइन । जुन दिन रोजगारदाता देशमा समस्या आउँछ, त्यसै दिन उनीहरु फर्कन बाध्य हुन्छन् ।

सरकारले केही गर्न सक्दैन, प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले पनि केही गर्न सक्दैनन् । रुस पुगेर मृत्युवरण गर्न बाध्य नेपाली युवाका लागि यो सरकार होइन, यो देश पनि आफ्नो होइन । एक वर्षमात्र होइन, अर्को १० वर्ष शासन गरे पनि सरकार नेपाली युवाका लागि होइन भन्ने भाष्य सरकारले नै बनाएको हो ।

तेस्रोपल्ट प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दै गर्दा दाहाललाई चेत आएको हुनुपर्थ्यो कसको लागि प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दैछु भनेर तर यस्तो देखिएन ।

एक वर्षमा पर्यटक आगमनमा राम्रो सुधार देखिएको छ । सन् २०२३ को ११ महिनामा करिब ९ लाख ५४ हजार पर्यटक नेपाल आएका छन् । पर्यटक आय तथा पर्यटकको बसाइ लम्बाउन नसके पनि पछिल्लो वर्षमा बढेको पर्यटक आगमनले केही रोजगारी भने सिर्जना भएको छ । त्यो पनि कुन दिन फेरि घट्न बेर छैन । किनकि नेपालमा आउने पर्यटक नेपालको योजना तथा लगानीका कारण आएका होइनन्, उनीहरुकै योजनामा आएका हुन् ।

गएको एक वर्षमा तथ्यांकमा गज्जब सुधार भएको तर बजारमा अनुभव नगरिएको एउटा क्षेत्र भने महँगी हो ।

राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत वर्षको तुलनामा मूल्यवृद्धि घटेको छ । २०७९ मंसिर समान्तसम्ममा उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांकमा आधारित मुद्रास्फीति ७.३८ प्रतिशत थियो । तर चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा मुद्रास्फीति ५.३८ प्रतिशत छ ।

तर, बजार भाउ भने बढेको बढ्यै, बढेको बढ्यै छ ।

यसको अर्थ बजार भाउको वृद्धिदरमात्र घटेको हो, बजार भाउ सस्तो भएको होइन । प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालमात्र नभएर अधिकांश राजनीतिक दलका नेता तथा उच्चपदस्थ कर्मचारी आफैं बजारमा किनमेल गर्न गएको कतै देखिन्न, सुनिन्न, त्यसैले थाहा हुने कुरा पनि भएन । नागरिकका पीडा सुनिदिनेभन्दा पनि कतिपटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुने भन्ने कीर्तिमान राख्ने लहड भएपछि नारायणहिटी र सिंहदरबारमा कुनै फरक नहुनु स्वाभाविक हो ।

तर, फरक छः तेस्रो पल्ट शपथ ग्रहण गर्दा प्रचण्डले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाए । एक वर्षदेखि उनी सार्वजनिक समारोहमा दौरा सुरुवालमै देखिन्छन् ।

आजकल प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल अर्को एक धक्का दिने मुडमा छन् ।

शुक्रबार र आइतबार एउटा धक्का त दिइसके । प्रधानमन्त्रीले बिहीबार बक्यौता रकम नतिर्ने उद्योगको लाइन काट्न निर्देशन दिएलगत्तै शुक्रबार नेपाल विद्युत प्राधिकरणले जगदम्बा स्टिल्स, रिलायन्स स्पिनिङ मिल्स, घोराही सिमेन्ट र अर्घाखाँची सिमेन्टको बिजुली काट्यो । आइतबार थप ५ उद्योगको लाइन काटेको छ ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीले एक वर्षमा कर्मचारीतन्त्रलाई सयौं निर्देशन दिए होलान् । सयकडा एक यस्ता निर्देशन कार्यान्वयन पनि भए होलान्। तर, उद्योग नै धराशयी बनाउने निर्देशन एकैदिनमा कार्यान्वयनमा आयो, राज्य पूरै ब्ल्याकमेलरका रुपमा प्रस्तुत भयो।

स्वदेशी लगानीकर्तालाई ब्ल्याकमेल गरेको देखेपछि विदेशी लगानीकर्ता पक्कै नेपाल आउन चाहने छैनन् । तर, सरकार आउँदो वैशाख ९ र १० गते काठमाडौँमा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय लगानी सम्मेलनको तयारी गर्दैछ ।

नेपालमा लगानीको वातावरण कठिन हुँदैछ भनेर मलेसियन लगानीकर्ता आजियटा फर्कन चाहेको भर्खरै हो । नेपाल सरकारको दोहनकारी नीतिले लगानीकर्तामा चरम निराशा छ । बितेको एक वर्षमा लगानीको वातावरण बिथोल्न प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको सरकार र सरकारी संयन्त्रले भयंकर मेहनत गरेको छ ।

नेपालका उद्योग बन्द गरेर बेरोजगार बढाउने अनि खाडि पठाएर रेमिटयान्स भित्र्याउने । युवाले पठाएको रेमिटयान्सले सरकारले तलब खाने र राजनीतिक दलका कार्यकर्ता पाल्ने । योभन्दा खास्सा आर्थिक क्रान्ती के हुन्छ ?

यो नै दाहाल सरकारको प्रमुख उपलब्धि हो ।

एक दशकको द्वन्द्वले नेपाल आर्थिक विकासमा ५० वर्ष पछाडि पर्‍यो, अब एक वर्षको उपलब्धिले झन् राणाकालमा नै पुर्‍याउने हो । यस्तै विषम परिस्थितिमा नै १०४ वर्षे एकतन्त्रीय जहानियाँ राणाकाल सुरु भएको हुनपर्छ ।

सायद प्रधानमन्त्रीले भनेको अन्तिम धक्का यही होला, देश बनाउने ।

राज्य नै दोहनकारी भएपछि कसरी मुलुकमा औद्योगिक वातावरण बन्छ, उद्यमशीलताको प्रवर्धन हुन्छ अनि रोजगारी सिर्जना हुन्छ, यति बुझ्न जंगल जानु पर्दैन । यो कमन सेन्स हो ।

तर, अंग्रेजीमा भनिन्छ नि कमन सेन्स इज भेरी अनकमन । नेपालमा राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका नेतृत्वमा कमन सेन्स भएको भए नेपाली युवा रुसको फौजमा वा खाडी अनि मलेसिया जानु पर्दैनथ्यो । पूर्णरुपमा रेमिट्यान्समा आधारित सुधारिएको सूचक देखाएर फुइँ लाउने सरकारसँग नेपाल विकासको कुनै दृष्टिकोण, कुनै योजना छैन भन्ने एक वर्षले सिद्ध गरिसकेको छ ।

बितेका एक वर्षमा कतिवटा उद्योग खुले, कति रोजगारी सिर्जना भयो, नेपालीको आय कति बढ्यो, कति नेपालीले छाना र नाना पाए, त्यसको तथ्यांक हेरौं न ।

अनि जाजरकोटमा चिसोले कति जनाको ज्यान गयो, त्यो पनि एउटा सूचक होला नि होइन र ? २१औं शताब्दीमा जाडो र चिसोले नागरिक मर्ने देशको सूचकमा सुधारको के अर्थ ?

बढ्दो ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण

पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा सबैभन्दा बढी चर्चामा आएको विषय हो, सार्वजनिक ऋण । आजको मितिमा सरकारले ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण नै लिनुपर्ने बाध्यता सिर्जना भएको छ । हुन त यसमा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको धेरै दोष छैन । तर, उनले पनि बितेका एक वर्षमा सार्वजनिक ऋण थपे । किनकि राजश्वले सरकारी खर्च धान्न छोडिसक्यो । सरकारको एक वर्षको उपलब्धिमा यसको पनि त मूल्यांकन होला नी ।

सार्वजनिक ऋण व्यवस्थापन कार्यालयका अनुसार गत असार मसान्तसम्ममा २२ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३५ करोड २४ लाख रुपैयाँ बराबर रहेको सार्वजनिक ऋण कात्तिक मसान्तसम्म पुग्दा २३ खर्ब ५७ अर्ब ६ करोड रुपैयाँ नाघेको छ । त्यसैले सरकारले पुँजीगत खर्चभन्दा ऋण तिर्न बढी खर्च गर्ने बाध्यता आइसकेको छ ।

यतिमात्रै होइन, विगत एक वर्षको उपलब्धि ।

महालेखा नियन्त्रक कार्यालयको तथ्यांकअनुसार २०८० मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारको आम्दानीभन्दा खर्च बढी छ ।

मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारले ४ खर्ब ५२ अर्ब ९९ करोड ५७ लाख रुपैयाँ बजेट खर्च गरेको छ तर आम्दानी भने खर्चभन्दा ६९ अर्ब ७ करोड १५ लाख रुपैयाँ कम छ । सरकारले चालु आवका लागि १७ खर्ब ५१ अर्ब ३१ करोड २१ लाख रुपैयाँको बजेट ल्याएको थियो भने कुल १४ खर्ब ७२ अर्ब ४८ करोड ४७ लाख रुपैयाँबराबर राजस्व उठाउने लक्ष्य थियो ।

महाँकालदेखि मानसरोवरसम्मः आर्थिक कूटनीतिमाथि धार्मिक कूटनीति हावी

कुनै समय चीनका नेता माओत्सेतुंगको नाम तथा दर्शनबाट प्रभावित तथा प्रगतिशील राजनीतिको प्रचण्डपथ नै कोरेको दाबी गर्ने नेकपा माओवादी केन्द्रका अध्यक्ष प्रचण्डले प्रधानमन्त्री भएपछि पहिलो विदेश भ्रमण भारतबाटै गर्ने रहर गत वर्ष पूरा गरे।धेरैले उनलाई दक्षिणतिर ढल्किएको पनि भने। तर, उत्तरबाट दक्षिणतिरको यो ३६० डिग्रीको फन्को रातारात होइन, थिएन ।

नेपालको सत्ताको सिँढी नै दक्षिणतिर छ त उनको के दोष !

उनको तेस्रो पटकको सत्तारोहणबाट नेपाली नागरिकले के पाए, त्यो भिन्नै कुरा भो । तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुँदा पनि उनीसँग देश र जनतालाई दिनेभन्दा लिने नै कुरा बढी होलान् । यो भाष्य गलत होस् भन्ने कामना त गर्न सकिन्छ तर यथार्थ यथार्थ नै हुन्छ।

नेपालको आर्थिक विकासको एउटा प्रमुख साझेदार हो भारत । नेपालको वैदेशिक व्यापारमा भारतको हिस्सा ठूलोमात्र होइन, अर्थतन्त्रलाई तत्काल नकारात्मक वा सकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्न सक्ने छिमेकी पनि हो ।

त्यसैले हरेकपल्ट नेपालका प्रधानमन्त्रीको भारत भ्रमणबाट नेपालीले ठूलै उपलब्धि हासिल गर्ने आशा राख्छन् । यसपटक आफुलाई सुध्रिसकेको दाबी गरेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालसँग पनि नेपालीको ठूलै आशा थियो । तर, दिल्लीको औपचारिक मेजमानी खाएपछि २०८० जेठ १९ गते उज्जैन पुगेर उनी महाँकालेश्वरमा गेरुवा खास्टोमा आरती गर्दै गरेका देखिए ।

नेपाल र भारतबीचको द्विदेशीय व्यापार अभिवृद्धि गर्नेलगायतका थुप्रै विषयभन्दा उनका लागि उज्जैनको महाँकालेश्वरमा आरती महत्वपूर्ण भयो । दुई छिमेकी देशबीच आर्थिक कूटनीतिभन्दा धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा रुची लिनु प्रचण्डको बाध्यता हुनसक्छ।

नेपाल र भारतलाई आज आर्थिक विकासमा जोड्न सकेमात्र दुबै मुलुकको फाइदा छ । तर, त्यसो गर्दा दाहाललाई के फाइदा ?

भारतको औपचारिक भ्रमणबाट व्यापार, पारवहन, लगानी प्रवर्धन, ऊर्जा व्यापार तथा क्रस बोर्डर ट्रान्समिसन लाइन, सिँचाइ, बाढी तथा डुबान नियन्त्रण, कृषिलगायतका क्षेत्रमा केही सहमति भएका थिए । तर, उनको गेरुवा खास्टोले ती केही भएका उपलब्धि पनि छोपिए ।

यसरी माओको दर्शन र प्रगतिशील राजनीति एकाएक धार्मिक राजनीतिमा क्रान्तिकारी छलाङ मार्न पुग्यो ।

किनकि उनको धार्मिक कूटनीति दक्षिणको छिमेकीमा मात्र सीमित रहेन । अमेरिकाबाट सोझै २०८० असोज ६ गते चीन उत्रिएका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल भोलिपल्ट औपचारिक कार्यक्रम सकेपछि नेपाल फर्कन सक्थे तर एक साता घुमफिर गरेर मानसरोवर यात्रा गर्न भ्याए ।

अस्थिरताका पर्याय मानिएका प्रचण्ड छिमेकी मुलुकसँगको आर्थिक कूटनीति बलियो बनाउन छाडेर धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा ओर्लिए । जसकारण प्रधानमन्त्रीको भ्रमणमा नेपालले भारतबाट तथा चीनबाट लिन सक्ने जति आर्थिक फाइदा लिन सकेन।

त्यसैले बितेको एक वर्षमा नेपालीले देखेको ‘परिवर्तन’ भनेको झल्याकझुलुक गेरुवा खास्टोबाहेक प्रधानमन्त्रीको दौरा सुरुवाल मात्रै हो ।

Global IME Bank, BoK start joint operation as Global IME Bank

Global IME Bank and Bank of Kathmandu (BoK) today started the integrated operation as Global IME Bank.

Following the merger, the bank's capital fund totaled Rs57 billion, deposit reached Rs 410 billion and loans Rs 400 billion with assets of Rs 500 billion and a network of 1,100 branches, according to a press note issued by the bank.

With a total of 365 branch offices, 367 ATMs, 286 branchless banking services, 61 extended branch offices, and 3 contact offices located abroad, Global IME Bank has more than 4 million customers, the press note reads, adding that the board of directors of the merged bank will consist of five directors including chair Chandra Prasad Dhakal from erstwhile Global IME Bank and two directors from erstwhile Bank of Kathmandu. The chief executive officer (CEO) of Global IME Bank Ratnaraj Bajracharya will continue as the CEO of merged bank.

Inaugurating the programme, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ reetariated the government main agenda as sustainable economic development and strengthening of the economy. “Understanding the need of the hour, we have decided to implement a balanced financial, industrial and monetary policy to make the economy dynamic and to objectively intensify cooperation and cooperation with the private sector to solve the problems seen in the economy,” he said, claiming that the country’s economy will accelerate, if the opportunities provided by the expansion and improvement of the banking sector can be properly utilised. Emphasising that the banking sector has a great role in making remittance transactions reliable and secure, the premier said that it is necessary for the banking sector to contribute not only to big projects but also in the areas of access to finance, financial literacy and self-employment by using the latest banking and financing products. “It would be easier to invest in big projects, if banks and other financial institutions merged and worked together but such mergers should boost financial efficiency and minimise unhealthy competition.”

On the occasion, chief secretary Shanker Das Bairagi said that the government is serious and will take effective steps in increasing their morale. “There have been positive indications in the country's economy lately,” he said, consoling the private sector not to fear. He also said that mergers will make it easier to raise resources for large projects and increase efficiency.

Likewise, central bank governor Maha Prasad Adhikari said that the merger process was pursued following increasing unhealthy competition and rising operating expenditures of financial institutions.

Urging the banks and financial institutions (BFIs) to focuse on self-regulation and invest in productive sector including small and medium enterprises (SMEs), he claimed that the merger policy will make the financial system more secure. “Due to increasing numbers of BFIs that led to the unhealthy competition, Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) has adopted the merger and acquisition (M&A) strategy a decade ago.”

Though the NRB has brought merger bylaw in 2011 and revised it in 2012, the Monetary Policy of the fiscal year 2015-16 has encouraged mergers and acquisitions by increasing the paid-up capital of the BFIs. The Monetary Policy has increased the paid up capital of the commercial banks (Class A financial institutions) to Rs 8 billion, development banks (Class B financial institutions) to Rs 2.50 billion, and finance companies (Class C financial institutions) to Rs 800 million. 

Speaking on the occasion, president of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) Shekhar Golchha asked the government and central bank to address three concerns to improve economy. “First, increase government spending; second make monetary policy restrictive but flexible too given the investment risks, and third, create an investment-friendly environment for private sector.”

“The economy will be strong only if the banks are strong,” he said, adding that the bigger banks after merger will also lead to bigger challenges. “To provide reasonable interest to the depositors and subsidised interest to the borrowers is also a huge challenge.”

Stating that BFIs are the backbone of the economy, Golchha said the profit of banks should also be seen, linking it with their investments.

Saying that reducing interest rates will boost the morale of industrialists and businessmen, Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) president Vishnu Kumar Agrawal asked the government and central bank to decrease interest rate and ease liquidity. “Big banks should have bigger responsibility as well,” he said, urging the BFIs to lower the interest rate. “Encouraging to invest in productive sectors will not only contribute to national capital formation but also help government achieve revenue target.”

Informing about the merger, chair of the Global IME Bank Chandra Prasad Dhakal, on the occasion, said that the Global IME has merged and acquired a total of 21 BFIs to become the largest bank in the country. "This institution has been formed with the merger of five commercial banks and 10 development banks, apart from six financial institutions,” he informed, claiming the merged Global IME Bank as the first bank in terms of higest paid up capital. He also pointing out the risk involved as a big bank. “Being a big bank, there are risks and managerial challenges but we will be able to address them with our experience.”

Started his banking business from bringing remittances back home as a remitter, Dhakal said he will still gives high priority to remittance service. “We will give priority to bringing back money earned by the Nepalis in the Gulf and other countries.”

Nepal Labour Migration Report 2022 launched on International Migrants Day

Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, International Organisation for Migration (IOM), International Labour Organisation (ILO), and Safer Migration Programme (SaMI) jointly launched the ‘Nepal Labour Migration Report 2022’ on International Migrants Day today.

The report encapsulates the major trends and activities in the country’s labour migration sector covering the period between 2019-2020 and 2021-2022, which follows the efforts of the ministry to periodically present a comprehensive overview of labour migration in Nepal, according to a press note issued by the IOM.

According to the report, the ministry has adopted and implemented a range of policies and legal instruments to address labour migration related issues in the country such as shifting labour migration related services to online system, adopting new directives and procedures for the reintegration of returnee migrant workers, as well as significant modification on immigration policies especially aiming the migrants in major countries of destination. Despite this progress, Nepali migrant workers’ health and safety issues as well as cases of fraud, abuse and exploitation continue to occur in unignorable numbers, it reads.

The report also stresses the importance of ‘informed migration’, awareness, sensitisation, and the need for implementing country specific pre-departure orientation as well as post-arrival orientation for migrants.

Likewise, the report appeals to support the government’s efforts to ensure fair and ethical recruitment, including the implementation of the ‘employer pays’ principle, which means the costs of recruitment should be borne by the employer not by the worker.

Labour Migration has been a common livelihood strategy for Nepalese households over the recent decades. According to the World Bank, remittances contributed equal to some 24 per cent of the country’s GDP in the year 2021.

Addressing the event in capacity of the chief guest minister for labour, employment and social security Sher Bahadur Kunwar extended his best wishes to all the migrants on the occasion of the International Migrants Day, and wished for an environment where all labour migrants can be proud of their work and be able to be united for their rights.

“The report will be a useful resource for everyone for it has covered every aspect of migration including its shifting dynamics,” he said. 

“I am glad that we have been able to continue to join hands with the government and other key stakeholders in presenting such report covering every aspects of the labour migration sector in Nepal, which I believe will eventually contribute to strengthening labour migration governance and ensuring safe, orderly and dignified labour migration in Nepal, envisioned by the Sustainable Development Goals and the Global Compact for Migration (GCM),” said IOM Nepal chief of Mission Lorena Lando, after the report launch.

“Introducing the report on this day dedicated to all migrants across the world, we are contributing to our objectives of humanizing mobility to contribute to social cohesion and reduce negative perceptions about migrants”, she added.

“The foundation of effective policy formulation and implementation is robust research and social dialogue,” said officer-in-charge for ILO Nepal Fredy Guayacan, Congratulating the ministry on the report launch.

“We are honoured to have continued our support for this extremely important work since 2014, which we believe is essential not only to enhance our understanding of the key trends and issues related to labour migration in Nepal but also to reflect on each of our roles in ensuring labour migration governance respects the rights of migrant workers and their families,” he added.

The IOM, ILO and Sami had supported the government in developing the report.

Representatives from various other government agencies, civil society, development partners, academia, researchers, the United Nations, and other national and international organizations were among the attendees of the event.

Every year on December 18, the world celebrates International Migrants Day to mark the anniversary of the adoption of the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of their Families by the United Nations General Assembly in 1990. In Nepal, under the leadership of the Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, the country is marked the Day under the theme of ‘skills, capital, and knowledge gained from foreign employment: entrepreneurship, employment and national dignity’.

Nepal to receive $8.5 billion in remittance: WB

Remittances to Nepal are expected to increase by a marginal 3.6 per cent to $8.5 billion in 2022, up from $8.2 billion in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to a report.

The main drivers are an increase in vaccinations and lifting of travel restrictions in the GCC, which is the main destination for Nepali migrants, paired with conducive conditions in the GCC, the Migration and Development Brief-37 (November 2022) titled 'Remittances Brave Global Headwinds', which has special focus on Climate Migration, and published on Wednesday by Migration and Remittances Team, Social Protection and Jobs of World Bank, in association with  Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD), reads.

While high global inflation did not spare Nepali households in Nepal, thanks to strong market price support policies in the GCC, Nepali migrants enjoyed low inflation and maintained a steady flow of remittances to Nepal in the year, it reads, adding that remittance growth was aided by high oil prices ($98 a barrel) and employment opportunities in the construction projects for the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar. “Considering the centrality of remittances in the Nepali economy, the government offered an incentive for remittances of an additional 1 per cent in interest on remittance deposits, increased the daily threshold for money remitted from abroad from Rs 1 million to Rs 1.5 million, and allowed Non-Resident Nepalis (NRNs) to open foreign currency savings accounts in Nepal.”

Historically, the GCC countries have been the main destination for migrants from South Asia but a gradual structural shift is occurring in favour of higher-income countries for Indian migrants. For the majority of the migrants from other South Asian countries, the GCC is still the main destination. They have temporary contracts for low-skilled jobs mostly in the construction and other labor-intensive sectors (Ahmed and Bossavie 2022). In 2019, about 50 per cent of emigrants from Pakistan and 42 per cent from Bangladesh were in GCC countries. Saudi Arabia employed more than 25 per cent of Sri Lankan emigrants and 20 per cent of Nepali emigrants (UNDESA 2019). Every year 400,000 Nepalis leave for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Since 2010, every fourth Nepali leaves for Qatar.

Nepal recently started checking those who leave as migrant workers and created job contracts and made salaries public information to prevent recruiters from scamming migrant workers. About 8 per cent to 10 per cent of the South Asian emigrants work in countries within South Asia, the report reads, adding that remittance flows to South Asia are expected to grow by 3.5 per cent to reach $163 billion in 2022, a notable slowdown from the 6.7 per cent gain of 2021, but benefiting from strong performance in India and Nepal. “Overall remittance growth in South Asia (3.5 per cent in 2022) masks a large disparity across country results, from India’s gain of 12 per cent, Nepal’s increase of 4 per cent, to an aggregate decline of 10 per cent for the remaining countries of South Asia.”

Remittances grow by 5 per cent in 2022 despite global headwinds

Remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) withstood global headwinds in 2022, growing by an estimated 5 per cent to $626 billion, according to a report.

“This is sharply lower than the 10.2 per cent increase in 2021, according to the latest World Bank Migration and Development Brief published on Wednesday. 

Remittances are a vital source of household income for LMICs, it reads, adding that they alleviate poverty, improve nutritional outcomes, and are associated with increased birth weight and higher school enrollment rates for children in disadvantaged households. “Studies show that remittances help recipient households to build resilience, for example through financing better housing and to cope with the losses in the aftermath of disasters.”

Remittance flows to developing regions were shaped by several factors in 2022. A reopening of host economies as the Covid-19 pandemic receded supported migrants’ employment and their ability to continue helping their families back home, the report reads. “Rising prices, on the other hand, adversely affected migrants’ real incomes. Also influencing the value of remittances is the appreciation of the ruble, which translated into higher value, in US dollar terms, of outward remittances from Russia to Central Asia.”

In the case of Europe, a weaker euro had the opposite effect of reducing the US dollar valuation of remittance flows to North Africa and elsewhere. In countries that experienced scarcity of foreign exchange and multiple exchange rates, officially recorded remittance flows declined as flows shifted to alternative channels offering better rates.

“Migrants help to ease tight labour markets in host countries while supporting their families through remittances,” World Bank Global Director for Social Protection and Jobs, Michal Rutkowski said, adding that inclusive social protection policies have helped workers weather the income and employment uncertainties created by the Covid-19 pandemic. “Such policies have global impacts through remittances and must be continued.”

By region, Africa stands to be the most severely exposed to the concurrent crises, including severe drought and spikes in global energy and food commodity prices. Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to have increased by 5.2 per cent compared with 16.4 per cent last year. In other regions, remittance flows are estimated to have increased by 10.3 per cent to Europe and Central Asia, where rising oil prices and demand for migrant workers in Russia supported remittances, in addition to the currency valuation effect. In Ukraine, remittance growth is estimated at 2 per cent, lower than earlier projections as funds for Ukrainians were sent to countries hosting them, and hand-carried money transfers likely increased.

Growth in remittance flows is estimated at 9.3 per cent for Latin America and the Caribbean, 3.5 per cent in South Asia, 2.5 per cent in the Middle East and North Africa, and 0.7 per cent in East Asia and the Pacific. In 2022, for the first time a single country, India, is on track to receive more than $100 billion in yearly remittances.

In a special feature on climate-driven migration, the Brief notes that rising pressures from climate change will both drive increases in migration within countries and impair livelihoods. The poorest are likely to be most affected as they often lack the resources necessary to adapt or move. Studies show that migration can play a role in coping with climate impacts, for example, by providing an escape from disasters and also through remittances and other forms of support to affected households. Changes in the international legal norms and institutional frameworks for migration may be required to cope with the challenge of climate-related migration, particularly in the context of cross-border mobility, as is the case for small island nations.

“People throughout history have responded to deteriorating climates by moving to survive,” lead author of the Brief and head of the Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD) Dilip Ratha said, adding that planning for safe and regular migration as a part of adaptation strategies will be required for managing displacement in the affected regions as well as the influx of people in the receiving communities. “National and regional development strategies should be viewed through a climate migration lens.”

Also reported in the Brief is the cost of sending $200 across international borders to LMICs, which remains high at 6 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022, according to the Remittances Prices Worldwide Database. It is cheapest to send via mobile operators (3.5 per cent), but digital channels account for less than 1 per cent of total transaction volume. Digital technologies allow for significantly faster and cheaper remittance services. However, the burden of compliance with Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) regulations continues to restrict access of new service providers to correspondent banks. These regulations also affect migrants’ access to digital remittance services.

Regional Remittance Trends

Remittances to South Asia grew an estimated 3.5 per cent to $163 billion in 2022, but there is large disparity across countries, from India’s projected 12 per cent gain – which is on track to reach $100 billion in receipts for the year – to Nepal’s 4 per cent increase, to an aggregate decline of 10 per cent for the region’s remaining countries. The easing of flows reflects the discontinuation of special incentives some governments had introduced to attract flows during the pandemic, as well as preferences for informal channels offering better exchange rates. Remittances to India were enhanced by wage hikes and a strong labor market in the US and other OECD countries. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) destination countries, governments ensured low inflation through direct support measures that protected migrants’ ability to remit. Sending $200 to the region cost 4.1 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022, down from 4.3 per cent a year ago, the report adds.

The Migration and Development Brief analyzes trends in migration-related SDG indicators: increasing the volume of remittances as a percentage of GDP, reducing remittance costs, and reducing recruitment costs.

Remittances to the East Asia and Pacific region are estimated to have increased by 0.7 per cent to $134 billion in 2022, arresting the decline of the previous two years. Labour shortages in the hospitality and health sectors of high-income economies and higher oil prices benefiting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries boosted demand for workers in 2022, which supported remittances. However, remittances to China are estimated to have dropped by nearly 4 per cent, driven by restrictions on workers from traveling abroad due to Covid-related policies. Remittances as a share of GDP are significant in Tonga (50 per cent) and Samoa (34 per cent). In 2023, remittances are projected to decline by 1 per cent due to weaker conditions in migrants’ destination countries. The cost of sending $200 to the region rose to 6.2 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022 from 5.8 per cent a year earlier.

Remittance flows to Europe and Central Asia are estimated to have increased by 10.3 per cent to $72 billion in 2022. Rising oil prices and demand for migrant workers increased the flow of remittances from Russia to Central Asian countries. The appreciation of the ruble against the US dollar translated into higher value, in dollar terms, of outward remittances from Russia to Central Asia. Remittances to the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan exceed by 30 per cent of GDP. In 2023, remittance receipts are projected to moderate further to 4.2 per cent growth due to a softer outlook for major remittance-sending countries. The cost of sending $200 to the region rose slightly to 6.4 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022 (data excludes corridors originating in Russia).

Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean are estimated to have grown by 9.3 per cent in 2022 to $142 billion. Data for the first nine months of 2022 show a 45 per cent increase for Nicaragua, 20 per cent for Guatemala, 15 per cent for Mexico, and 9 per cent for Colombia. Stronger employment of migrants from Latin America in the US contributed to remittance flows. Remittances received by migrants in transit also contributed to strong flows in Mexico and Central America. As a share of GDP, remittances exceed 20 per cent in El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, and Haiti. In 2023, remittances will likely moderate to 4.7 per cent growth due to a weaker economic outlook for the US, Italy, and Spain. Sending $200 to the region cost 6 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2021, up from 5.6 per cent a year ago.

Remittances to the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa are estimated to have grown by 2.5 per cent in 2022 to $63 billion, compared to a 10.5 per cent growth last year. Slower growth in remittances is partly tied to the erosion of real wage gains in the Euro Area, even as demand for remittances in home countries increased amid deteriorating conditions, including drought in the Maghreb and high imported wheat prices. As a share of GDP, remittances are significant in Lebanon (38 per cent) and West Bank and Gaza (19 per cent). Remittance inflows are projected to grow by 2 per cent in 2023. Sending $200 to the region cost 6.3 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022, the report reads.

External sector improves after 14 months

After 14 months, money coming into the country has recorded a surplus than the money going out of the country, which has improved the external sector.

According to the ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’, published today by the central bank, the Balance of Payment (BoP) recorded a surplus of Rs 12.43 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year as the remittance and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow increased over the period.

For the last 14 months, the country was facing BoP deficit. As of mid-October last year, the country was in BoP deficit of Rs 87.71 billion. In the US Dollar terms, the BoP remained at a surplus of $91.8 million in the first quarter compared to a deficit of 741.2 million in the first quarter of last year.

The BoP records current account, capital account and financial account of a country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world. It is one of the key indicators to show a country’s net balance in terms of foreign currency reserves.

With the BoP surplus, gross foreign exchange reserves also increased by 2.5 per cent to Rs 1.246 trillion in mid-October from Rs 1.215 trillion in mid-July. According to the central bank, the foreign currency reserve is sufficient for merchandise and services imports of 8.3 months.

In the first three months of the current fiscal year, remittance inflows also increased by 16.8 per cent to post Rs 281.05 billion,, adding Rs 94 billion in a month, due to impressive migrant workers outflow in the recent months of the current fiscal year, and also due to government’s inability to create jobs in the country.

Likewise, imports decreased by 16.2 per cent to Rs 401 billion against an increase of 63.7 per cent a year ago due to government and central bank’s import restrictions, according to the central bank data.

According to the central bank, capital transfer also increased by 34.8 per cent to Rs 2.59 billion and net FDI inflow recorded Rs 79.6 million. In the first quarter of the last fiscal year, capital transfer and net FDI inflow amounted to Rs 1.92 billion and Rs 5.07 billion, respectively.

Migration can boost South Asia’s recovery and support long-term development

As South Asia reels from the impacts of unprecedented economic shocks, migration can boost its recovery and support long-term development, says the World Bank in its latest regional economic update.

‘Coping with Shocks: Migration and the Road to Resilience’ is the subject of a two-day conference that opened today in Kathmandu, organised by the Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS) and the World Bank (WB), according to the multilateral development partner. The conference provides academics and researchers a platform to discuss the current situation, challenges and advancements related to migration in South Asia.

Migration drives economic growth as it allows people to move to where they are more productive. International migrants from Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, who work in the Gulf states, for example, earn up to five times what they would at home and help generate some of the largest remittance inflows in the world. Nepal derives an estimated 20 per cent of its income from remittance inflows, and in Bangladesh and Pakistan, remittance revenue accounts for 6 per cent and 8 per cent equivalent of their GDP, respectively. Migration also allows people to adjust to local economic shocks, such as extreme-weather disasters, to which South Asia’s rural poor are highly vulnerable, the report adds.

“While migration has numerous economic benefits, the costs of moving such as credit constraints, lack of information, and labor market frictions prevent them from being fully realized,” said secretary at the Ministry of Labour, Employment, and Social Security Eaknarayan Aryal, addressing the conference. “Nepal and countries across South Asia must work to facilitate labour mobility as doing so is vital to the region’s recovery and resilience to future shocks,” he added.

Poor South Asian migrants, many of whom hold temporary jobs in the informal sector, face several challenges such as precarious labour market conditions, visas tied to employment, and limited access to social protection. The Covid-19 pandemic exposed their long-standing vulnerabilities as they were disproportionately affected by restrictions to movement. However, the later phase of the pandemic has highlighted the crucial role migration can play in facilitating recovery. Survey data from the report suggests that in late 2021 and early 2022, migration flows are associated with movement from areas hit hard by the pandemic to those that were not, thus helping equilibrate demand and supply of labor in the aftermath of the Covid-19 shock. In Nepal, by late 2021, migrants were 13 percentage points more likely to be employed than those who did not migrate after facing job loss during the early months of the pandemic.

“Migration is picking up again in South Asia, but remains slow and uneven, raising concerns that the pandemic shock has had long-term impacts on the costs and frictions associated with it,” said World Bank chief economist for South Asia Hans Timmer, on the occasion. “Policymakers must address these often-prohibitive costs and frictions and incorporate measures to de-risk migration.”

The report offers several recommendations on cutting the high costs of migration, including drawing bilateral and multilateral agreements, strengthening the remittance infrastructure, and offering information and training programmes to help potential migrants make better decisions about moving. It also offers recommendations on de-risking migration through means such as more flexible visa policies, mechanisms to support migrant workers during shocks, and social protection programmes.

“South Asia is the largest beneficiary of remittance in the world,” IIDS executive chair Dr. Biswash Gauchan said, adding that remittance has played a central role in alleviating poverty, coping with economic shocks, and making substantial progress toward sustainable development goals in Nepal. “However, the socioeconomic and political cost of migration is also very high in the country where a substantial number of the working-age population has gone abroad in search of employment.”

अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा सुधार आएन

 मूल्यवृद्धि ७ प्रतिशतभन्दा माथि

रेमिट्यान्स आय घट्दो

शोधनान्तर घाटा बढ्ने क्रम जारी

विदेशी मुद्रा संचिती घट्ने क्रम जारी

चालु वर्षको पाँच महिनामा पनि अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा कुनै सुधार आएको छैन भने झन् त्यसमाथि यसअघि नियान्त्रणभित्रै रहेको बजार भाउ पनि बढ्ने क्रम तीव्र बनेको छ ।

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार मूल्य वृद्धिदर ७ प्रतिशतभन्दा माथि रहेको छ । राष्ट्र बैंकको मासिक प्रतिवेदनअनुसार वार्षिक बिन्दुगत उपभोक्ता मुद्रास्फीति ७.११ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । जुन अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको मंसिरको तुलनामा ४.१८ प्रतिशतले बढी हो । अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको पाँचौं महिनामा मूल्य वृद्धिदर २.९३ प्रतिशत रहेको थियो ।

सरकारले बजेटमा तथा राष्ट्र बैंकले चालु आर्थिक वर्षको मौद्रिक नीतिमा ६.५ प्रतिशतभित्रै राख्ने प्रक्षेपण गरेको मूल्यवृद्धि पाँचौं महिनामा नै उकालो लागेको छ । चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा सरकारलाई मूल्यवृद्धि काबुमा राख्न समस्या पर्ने केही दिन अगाडि राष्ट्र बैंकका गभर्नर महाप्रसाद अधिकारीले संसदीय समितिमा बताएका थिए ।

राष्ट्र बैंकले बिहीबार जारी गरेको तथ्यांकअनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पाँचौं महिनामा खाद्य तथा पेय पदार्थ समूहको मुद्रास्फीति ५.६७ प्रतिशत र गैर–खाद्य तथा सेवा समूहको मुद्रास्फीति ८.२५ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । २०७७ मंसिरको तुलनामा २०७८ मंसिरमा घ्यू तथा तेल, यातायात, दाल तथा गेडागुडी, शिक्षा र सुर्तीजन्य वस्तु उपसमूहको मूल्यवृद्धि क्रमशः २८.५२ प्रतिशत, १६.२५ प्रतिशत, ११.७९ प्रतिशत, ११.७८ प्रतिशत र ११.७४ प्रतिशत रहेको छ ।

मंसिर महिनामा तराईमा सबैभन्दा बढी भाउ बढेको देखिन्छ । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार काठमाडौं उपत्यकामा ५.९१ प्रतिशत, तराईमा ७.५२ प्रतिशत, पहाडमा ६.९५ प्रतिशत र हिमालमा ४.९१ प्रतिशत मुद्रास्फीति रहेको छ । जबकि २०७७ मंसिरमा यी क्षेत्रहरुमा क्रमशः ३.७१ प्रतिशत, २.३५ प्रतिशत, ३.९५ प्रतिशत र ४.२२ प्रतिशत मुद्रास्फीति रहेको थियो ।

तर, २०७८ मंसिरमा वार्षिक बिन्दुगत तलब तथा ज्यालादर सूचकांक भने बढेको छ । मंसिरमा वार्षिक बिन्दुगत तलब तथा ज्यालादर सूचकांक ६.५३ प्रतिशतले बढेको भन्दै राष्ट्र बैंकले अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही महिनामा उक्त सूचकांक ०.९९ प्रतिशतले बढेको जनाएको छ । चालु आवको पाँचौं महिनामा तलब सूचकांक र ज्यालादर सूचकांक क्रमशः ९.४४ प्रतिशत र ५.७१ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।

यसका साथै लगातार घटिरहेको रेमिट्यान्स आय पनि चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पाँच महिनामा पनि सुधार आउन सकेन । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार पाँच महिना रेमिट्यान्स आय ६.८ प्रतिशतले कमी आई ३ खर्ब ८८ अर्ब ५८ करोडमा झरेको छ । गत वर्षको मंसिरमा रेमिट्यान्स आय अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा ११ प्रतिशतले बढेको थियो ।

तर, मंसिरसम्ममा वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि अन्तिम श्रम स्वीकृति (संस्थागत तथा व्यक्तिगत–नयाँ र वैधानिकीकरण) लिने नेपालीको संख्या भने उल्लेख्य रुपमा वृद्धि भई १ लाख ३१ हजार ८२ पुगेको छ । वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि पुनः श्रम स्वीकृति लिने नेपालीको संख्या २९५.८ प्रतिशतले वृद्धि भई ९९ हजार ५८० पुगेको छ भने अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा यस्तो संख्या ७७.३ प्रतिशतले घटेको थियो । मंसिरसम्ममा खुद ट्रान्सफर ५.७ प्रतिशतले कमी आई ४ खर्ब ३३ अर्ब ९२ करोड पुगेको छ । अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा यस्तो ट्रान्सफर ८.५ प्रतिशतले बढेको थियो ।

यसका साथै अर्थतन्त्रको अर्को महत्वपूर्ण सूचक शोधनान्तर घाटा चुलिँदै गएको छ । राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार मंसिरसम्ममा शोधनान्तर घाटा एक खर्ब ९५ अर्ब १ करोड पुगेको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको सुरुदेखि नै शोधनान्तर घाटा बढिरहेको छ । साउनमै ३८ अर्ब ७५ करोड शोधनान्तर घाटा थियो भने भदौमा ८३ अर्ब ४१ करोड पुगेको थियो । तर, असोजमा शोधनान्तर घाटा केही घटेर ७६ अर्ब १४ करोडमा झरेको थियो । फेरि कात्तिकमा एक खर्ब ५० अर्ब ३८ करोड पुगेको शोधनान्तर घाटा मंसिरमा एक खर्ब ९५ अर्ब एक करोड पुगेको छ ।

यसरी शोधनान्तर घाटा लगातार बढ्दा चालु खाता घाटामा पनि दबाब पुगेको छ । कात्तिकमा २ खर्ब २३ अर्ब १९ करोड रहेको चालु खाता घाटा मंसिरमा ३ खर्ब ६९ करोड रुपैयाँमा पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । समग्रमा अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकहरु सुधार हुन नसकेका कारण अर्थतन्त्रमा समस्या आउने देखिन्छ । बुधबार विश्व बैंकले पनि चालू आर्थिक वर्षमा आर्थिक बृद्धिदरमा संकुचन आई ३.७ प्रतिशत रहने प्रक्षेपण गरेको छ ।

यसका साथै, विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति पनि घट्ने क्रम जारी छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चौथो महिनामा ७.२ महिनाको वस्तु तथा आयात धान्न पुग्ने देखिएको विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति पाँचौ महिनामा आइपुग्दा घटेर ६.८ महिनाको वस्तु तथा आयातमात्रै धान्न अवस्थामा झरेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ ।

आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-०७९ को पाँच महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा बैंकिङ क्षेत्रसँग रहेको विदेशी विनिमय संचिती ७.५ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ६.८ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न पर्याप्त रहने देखिन्छ, राष्ट्र बैकले जनायो । २०७८ असार मसान्तमा १३ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३ करोड बराबर रहेको कुल विदेशी विनिमय संचिती घटेर मंसिर मसान्तमा १२ खर्ब १४ अर्ब ३ करोड भएको हो ।

Remittance inflow drops for the second straight month

Remittance inflow to Nepal has dropped for the second straight month in the current fiscal year.

Nepal’s remittance income declined by 6.3 per cent to Rs 155.37 billion during the first two months of the current fiscal year, according to a report published today by the central bank.

In the same period last fiscal year, remittance inflows had increased by 8.1 per cent, the central bank report added. But the remittance inflow started dropping from the beginning of the current fiscal year due to massive decline in Nepali migrant workers outflow since last 18 months due to Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the two months’ report ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’, published today by the central bank, the country’s receipt from remittance declined despite a notable rise in the outbound workers, though in the last month. The Nepali migrant workers outflow starting picking from last month, and it will take at least 6 to 8 months for them to start sending remittance back home. During mid-July and mid-September this year, the number of Nepali workers (institutional and individual-new and legalised) taking approval for foreign employment stood at 38,492, almost 100 times more than the same period in the last fiscal year.

Likewise, the number of Nepali workers (Renew entry) taking approval for foreign employment increased significantly to 22,976 from mid-July and mid-September compared to a decline of 86.5 per cent in the same period of fiscal year 2020-21.

Remittance may drop significantly, warns World Bank again

 Though, the central bank is upbeat about the remittance inflow, World Bank estimates that Nepali migrant workers are going to send home only $7.39 billion in 2020, down by 12 per cent from pre-coronavirus levels in 2019.

“In 2019, Nepali migrant workers sent home $8.25 billion back, the World Bank Migration and Development Brief released today reads. “The virus-related global slowdown and travel restrictions will also affect migratory movements, and this is likely to keep remittances subdued even in 2021.”

The Brief reads that tepid economic growth and employment levels in countries hosting migrants, weak oil prices and depreciation of the currencies of remittance-source countries against the US dollar were all factors behind the decline. 

The central bank however claims that Nepal might not see negative growth in remittance earnings in 2020, but the growth momentum might not last in 2021 as the global economy gets battered by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the central bank, the remittance inflow continue to grow, against all the odds in the global job providing countries. The remittances inflow between mid-July and mid-September increased by 8.1 per cent to Rs 165.73 billion in 2020 compared to a decrease of 0.6 per cent in the same period of a year ago. “There has been a better-than-expected growth in remittance sent by Nepali migrant workers as of September but the uncertainty is rising due to Covid-19 pandemic the next year might see drop in the remittance inflow,” the central bank claimed.

The remittance inflow swelled, despite the spread of coronavirus, because of diversion of remittance to the formal banking channel from informal hundi, due to the Covid-19 created disturbances. The Nepali migrant workers also sent cash instead of goods due to global lockdown, according to the central bank.

The government imposed lockdown across the country on March 24, which continued for 4 months. The central bank – in April – released a survey claiming that the remittance inflow will drop by over 15 per cent in the last fiscal year 2019-20 that ends in mid-July. Likewise the World Bank also had projected remittances to go down by 14 per cent, whereas the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) also projected a reduction of Rs 163 billion – or over 18 per cent – in remittance inflow due to coronavirus pandemic. 

The number of Nepali migrant workers – institutional and individual-new and legalized – taking approval for foreign employment plunged by 99.2 per cent in April, according to the macro-economic report of the central bank. “Likewise, the number of Nepali migrant workers – renew entry – taking approval for foreign employment decreased by 86.5 per cent.”

The World Bank has also warned that the stock of international migrants is likely to decline for the first time in recent history as new migration has slowed and return migration has increased. “Return migration has been reported in all parts of the world following the lifting of national lockdowns which left many migrant workers stranded in host countries,” the World Bank Brief reads, adding that rising unemployment in the face of tighter visa restrictions on migrants and refugees is likely to result in a further increase in return migration.

Thus, the remittances growth is expected to slow down not only in Nepal, but almost all countries are going to see a decline in the amount they receive as transfers from their migrant workers abroad, the World Bank’s Brief reads. “In India and Sri Lanka, remittances are projected to fall by about 9 per cent in 2020 to $76 billion and $6.7 billion, respectively.”

But in Pakistan, remittances will grow at about 9 per cent, totalling about $24 billion. In Bangladesh, remittances are projected to grow at about 8 per cent to around $20 billion.

Remittance inflow continue to post growth

Remittance inflows in the first two months of the current fiscal year were recorded a growth rate of 8.1 per cent to Rs 165.73 billion, though it is down from the 23 per cent growth in the first month.

“Nepalis abroad sent home back Rs 165.73 billion in the two-month of the current fiscal year despite expectation of remittance drop due to Covid-19 pandemic,” according to central bank’s macroeconomic report released today.

The migrant workers sent home Rs 73.02 billion back during the period mid-August to mid-September – the second month of the current fiscal year, the report reads, adding that Nepali migrant workers sent home Rs 875.03 billion in the last fiscal year. 

Nepal received an all-time monthly high of Rs 100.16 billion in remittance in the last month of the last fiscal year boosting the annual earnings, unlike the expectation of drop due to coronavirus. The central bank – in April – had projected a drop of over 15 per cent in remittance inflow, after the government imposed a lockdown on March 24 to contain the spread of coronavirus. Likewise, the World Bank has also projected a drop of over 14 per cent in remittances in the last fiscal year 2019-20 due to coronavirus. The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) too had projected a reduction of Rs 163 billion or over 18 per cent fall in remittance inflow.

However, remittance inflow to Nepal failed all the projections, though the annual remittance inflow witnessed a marginal drop. Economists suspected that the illegal transfers through hundi has been halted due to coronavirus pandemic giving the official channel a boost. 

However, the economists still believe a drop in remittance inflow as the global growth is projected at 5.2 per cent in 2021, a little lower than in the June Update, reflecting the more moderate downturn projected for 2020 and consistent with expectations of persistent social distancing.

According to the macroeconomic report, the number of Nepali workers – institutional and individual-new and legalized – taking approval for foreign employment plunged by 99.2 per cent in the two months of the current fiscal year. Likewise, the number of Nepali workers – renew entry – taking approval for foreign employment decreased by 86.5 per cent in the same period.

Remittance surges by 23 per cent in first month of current fiscal year

 Contrary to the expectation, the remittance inflow has increased significantly in the first month of the current fiscal year, according to the macroeconomic report – released by the central bank – today.

Remittance inflows to Nepal has increased by a surprising 23 per cent to Rs 92.71 billion compared to 2 per cent in the same month of the last fiscal year. 

In the last fiscal year, the remittance inflow decreased by a marginal 0.5 per cent in the last fiscal year that ended mid-July due to coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic that has affected the global economy.

According to the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) macroeconomic report, in the first month – from mid-July to mid-August – of the current fiscal year 2020-21, Nepal received Rs 92.71 billion in remittance earnings. 

 Nepali migrant workers sent home Rs 875.03 billion in the last fiscal year, which was 0.5 per cent less than a fiscal year ago due to coronavirus (Covid-19) that has left majority of the migrant workers in the labour destinations jobless.

However, Nepal received an all-time high remittance of Rs 100.16 billion in the last month of the fiscal year – mid-June to mid-July – that boosted the overall remittance earnings, though the coronavirus wreaking havoc on the global economy was expected to hit the remittances inflow to Nepal significantly.

The central bank had – after the country had imposed lockdown on March 24 – projected a drop of over 15 per cent in remittance inflow in the last fiscal year 2019-20 whereas the World Bank also had projected remittances to go down by 14 per cent. Likewise, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) had also projected a reduction of Rs 163 billion – or over 18 per cent – in remittance inflow. But the country has witnessed only 0.5 per cent drop in the last fiscal year, whereas the first month of the current fiscal year also recorded a whopping 23 per cent gain in the remittance inflow.

The reduction of informal trade, hundi and other illegal channels – due to lockdown and subsequently the restrictive orders of the chief district officers – have helped remittance come through formal channels, according to the bankers. Likewise, the returnees have also brought back cash in recent months, while they used to splurge on gifts and other personal items earlier.

According to the Covid-19 Crisis Management Centre (CCMC), as of September 25, more than 76,000 stranded Nepalis have been brought home, most of them from labour destinations, whereas the number of Nepali migrant workers leaving for the labour destinations has also decreased. “The number of Nepali workers – institutional and individual-new and legalised – taking approval for foreign employment decreased by 99.2 per cent against the decrease by 19 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year, according to the central bank, adding that the number of Nepali workers – renew entry – taking approval for foreign employment also decreased by 80 per cent in the first month of the current fiscal year. “In US Dollar terms, remittance inflows increased by 14.5 per cent compared to an increase of 0.7 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.”

Nepal graduates to ‘lower-middle-income’ country: World Bank

Nepal has officially graduated to a ‘lower-middle-income’ country from a ‘low-income’ country, according to the World Bank.
The multilateral development partner – in its latest country classifications by income level report published yesterday – also claimed that the report has, however, taken account of the income classifications through the use of GNI of 2019, which does not reflect the impact of Covid-19.
The World Bank updates the classifications – annually on July 1 – on the basis of gross national income (GNI) per capita. Nepal witnessed GNI per capita rise to $1,090 in 2019, from $960 in 2018, surpassing the $1,036 threshold for lower-middle-income countries in 2020.
According to the World Bank, countries with GNI per capita from $1,036 to $12,535 fall in the category of middle income category, which has further been sub-categorised as lower-middle income ($1,036 to $4,045) and upper-middle income ($4,046 to $12,535) countries. Likewise, countries with GNI per capita of over $12,535 are considered high income, according to the World Bank, which assigns the global economies to three income groups; low, middle, and high-income countries. The countries with GNI per capita of below $1,036 are considered low income.
According to the World Bank, the economies are categorised on the basis of economic growth, inflation, exchange rates, and population growth influence GNI per capita. GNI is the total amount of money earned by the country. GNI is also used to measure the country’s wealth. The income includes the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and the earnings it received from overseas sources including remittance.
Since the classification is based on GNI of 2019, the GNI per capita may reduce in 2020 and Nepal might again fall into the lower income country status, due to coronavirus that has halted the economic activities hurting also the remittance, apart from gross domestic product (GDP).
Nepal has, however, aimed at graduating to the middle-income country status by 2022.

Reduction in remittances can have other major ripple effects on Nepali economy

LORENA LANDO
Chief of Mission
International Organization for Migration – IOM
Kathmandu, Nepal
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Loren Lando is Chief of Mission of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) in Nepal since September 2019. Prior to her posting in Nepal, she was IOM Chief of Mission to the Republic of Tunisia (2011 – 2019), Deputy Chief of Mission in Sri Lanka (2010 – 2011), Chief of Mission a.i. in France (2009 – 2010), Deputy Chief of Mission in Afghanistan (2006 – 2008). Earlier she also worked in Iraq, Jordan, in the Balkans, Liberia and Central America. Lando has been serving in development and humanitarian field for over 25 years and has been advocating for migrants’ rights, migrants protection, and highlighting the contribution of migration to development during her service with IOM since 2000. Earlier Lando holds an International Post-graduate Diploma in Humanitarian Assistance, Fordham University, New York, USA; Post-graduate Diploma on Civilian Personnel in Peacekeeping Operations, Scuola Sup. Sant’Anna di Pisa, Italy; Certificate in Development Studies, University of London, UK; and BA with Honours in Modern Languages (Maj) and SocioEconomics Studies, University of Westminster, London, UK. An Italian national, Lando speaks English, French, Spanish, and Italian. We talked talks about the current woes of migrants, their evacuation, depleting remittance sent by them, with her on the occasion of International Day of Family Remittances that falls on June 16 ever year.

What is this year's motto and programmes for International Day of Family Remittances, and how has IOM planned to celebrate in such troubled times?
The International Day of Family Remittances (IDFR), which is observed on 16 June every year, is a universally-recognized observance adopted by the United Nations. The day recognises the contribution of over 200 million migrant workers to improve the lives of their 800 million family members back home and to create a future of hope for their children.
The IDFR is fully recognised at global level, and included as one of the key initiatives to implement the newly-adopted Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, also calling for the reduction of remittance transfer costs, and greater financial inclusion through remittances. The Day is also functional to the pursuit of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This year, the IDFR will be observed, as you called, in such a ‘troubled times’. Covid-19 has changed the world. Millions of migrant workers are losing their jobs, and many remittance-receiving households are suddenly pushed below the poverty line, bringing to a halt efforts to reach their own individual SDGs.
With estimated 2.4 million Nepalis working in over 100 countries across the globe and contribution of remittances in GDP equivalent to 27.3 per cent in 2019, remittances are a lifeline for over 50 per cent Nepali households.
To mark the day in Nepal, IOM is hosting a webinar on ‘Impacts of Covid-19 in Remittances and Nepalese Economy’ which will bring together regulatory authorities and experts to discuss on the impact of the pandemic and way forward. The webinar is on 16 June starting at 11am. The invitation is open to all. Anybody interested can join through this link.
Similarly a radio episode is being aired on impacts of Covid-19 on remittances and its consequences on migrants’ families and the country through a radio network of over 200 radio stations all over Nepal.   
In addition to that, with the aim to encourage the migrants and their families to convert remittances into sustainable source of livelihoods, IOM, remittance through social media outlets, will be posting testimonies of few returnee migrants who have been successfully running their small-scale businesses back home utilising the.

How has the IOM been collaborating with the Nepal government to bring in the Nepali migrant workers from different labour destination countries?
Sadly, as all other crisis the Covid-19 pandemic has hit the most vulnerable the hardest. The migrants are disproportionately impacted by the negative effects of the pandemic, including soaring unemployment rates and possible loss of income. With nearly all countries worldwide enforcing travel restrictions in an effort to contain the spread of virus, many migrants are unable to return to their countries or origin or reach their intended destinations.
Nepali migrants are certainly no exception. According to various sources, around 450,000 Nepali migrants are projected to lose their jobs and over 127,000 migrants are already in need of immediate assistance in host countries with little or no support and are unable to support their families at home. The Government of Nepal has started repatriation of Nepali migrants beginning last week on priority basis. Most of them have lost their jobs and many are in need of immediate assistance. 
With this evolving situation, IOM, in coordination and partnership with CSOs, other UN Agencies, and development partners, has been supporting the Government in its efforts to address the migrants-related issues. In line with IOM Covid-19 global preparedness and response plan to control further transmission and mitigate the impact of the outbreak, IOM Nepal’s focus initially are on preparedness and response, however, recovery is a major activity to address the socio-economic reintegration of the vulnerable groups. 
IOM has proposed strategic actions to support a coordinated prevention, mitigation and response efforts of stakeholders from federal, provincial and cross-border to control transmission and mitigate negative impact in the society and reduce a huge strain in the health care system, aligned with Health Sector Emergency Plan for Covid-19 pandemic and Joint UN Country Preparedness and Response Plan for Covid-19 pandemic in Nepal.
Currently, IOM has been providing technical support and expertise to Ministry of Health on issues related to migration health during the health cluster coordination meetings.
IOM leads the migrant protection sub-group consisting of government agencies, civil society, development partners and UN, which discusses prevailing the protection concerns of migrants and suggests way forward to address the issues. IOM will identify most vulnerable migrants and provide cash support to address their immediate needs as well as a longer-term reintegration supports to some migrants. 
IOM will be providing Non-food Items (NFIs) to most vulnerable communities of provinces 1, 5 and Sundurpaschim province. Personal protective equipment such as 3000 coverall, 1000 goggles, 3000 gloves, 3000 N95 masks, 25,000 surgical masks, 275 liters of hand sanitizers will be provided mainly for point of entries (PoEs).
IOM has been running various migrants-focused risk communications such as television and radio programmes, audio/visual messages and social media campaigns to raise migrants-related issues and raise awareness among Nepali migrants both in the country as well as in destination countries about preventive measures to help spread of the virus, to mental health issues during the crisis, as well as awareness among general public against anti-migrants discrimination and stigma as spreader of the virus. IOM has also developed a one-stop online information center for migrants with all migration-related information in Nepal such as travel restrictions, work permit, visa, migrant-focused awareness raising messages and so on. 
IOM will be conducting a few separate quick assessments to understand migration and migration health situation, skills and vulnerability of returning migrants.

Has there any role of IOM in evacuating the foreign workers from Nepal also?
IOM is the leading intergovernmental organization to advocate for migrants’ rights irrespective of their migratory status. All migrants are first human – so ensuring their human rights is basic. In this connection, during the current pandemic situation for both foreign nationals residing in Nepal and Nepali migrants in foreign countries, IOM advocates that it’s shared responsibility of both host and government of origin as well as employing company/organization to ensure safety of migrants wherever they are with full respect of their human rights. They should be treated with equality, dignity and respect irrespective of their gender and migration status.
Therefore, IOM keeps a close eyes on migrants’ needs such as evacuation of foreign nationals living in Nepal and the Nepali migrants in foreign countries and handling of the situation by the governments.   

According to the World Bank, the remittance inflow to Nepal is going to plunge by a whopping 14 percent this year, is there any way IOM can do anything in this regard?
That’s right, with job losses as we discussed above as well, the World Bank has projected that remittance inflow to Nepal is going down by 14 percent. Nepal Rastra Bank has also recorded that remittance inflow in past two months mostly after the nationwide lockdown was enforced is less by nearly 50 per cent compared to the same period last year. A reduction in remittances can have other major ripple effects on Nepali economy and communities, resulting in a decrease in productive investment, consumption spending and access to education and health services, ultimately has the potential to hinder the efforts made to achieve the development goals. As such, it is critical that action is taken to ensure that remittances keep flowing including through supporting greater access to and use of digital technologies.
With the view to leaving no one behind in the current crisis, it is essential that all stakeholders - policy makers, private sector and civil society - come together and focus on specific measures we can take in this regard to support migrants and their families. The government policy responses to the Covid-19 crisis need to include migrants in all short, medium, and long-term interventions to support stranded migrants, regularize remittance inflow, recovery supports for migrants’ families who have lost subsistence income, and access to health, house, education and nutrition. A coordinated approach between the Nepal Rastra Bank and migration-related stakeholders, specifically the Foreign Employment Board, to market the Foreign Employment Saving Bond can be conducted. In addition, the private sector can be better mobilized to increase the ownership of programmes targeted to returnees such as the returnee soft loan programme. Returnee migrants should be equipped with business training to help produce viable business plans, and a one-stop center for returnee migrants to access information on available resources and advisory services for potential entrepreneurs and jobseekers should be prioritised.
A mechanism can be established to recognize skills of returnee migrants and the aforementioned one-stop-center can direct and guide them to right field such as agriculture, tourism and small-scale entrepreneurship in any other sector. Now is the time to utilise those human and economic capitals into national development. Collecting data on returnee migrants reflecting their skills should be initiated sooner than later in coordination between all authorities related to foreign employment. This will help in formulating plans and policies for reintegration of returnees as well as overall skill development and employment programmes and plans.

The current Covid-19 situation seems to continue till almost a year now and movement of the migrants also seemed to be curtailed. How can the IOM help promote safe migration? 
IOM Nepal’s ongoing and proposed preparedness and response activities are aligned with IOM’s global preparedness and response plans to control further transmission and mitigate the impact of the outbreak, and aimed to contribute to the efforts of the government. Those activities are responsive to population mobility and cross-border dynamics, and that inclusive approaches which take into account migrants, travelers, displaced populations, and local communities, and counter misinformation that can lead to anti-migrant sentiment, stigma and discrimination are essential in the event of an outbreak.

Finally, do you have anything to say to Nepali migrants stuck in foreign countries due to travel restrictions or anything to overall Nepali people? 
Nepalese people have a proud history of picking themselves up ever stronger after every crisis, for instance the 2015 earthquake. You rebuilt your houses and livelihood again and made Nepal into a more resilient and stronger country than it was before in such short span of time. As in the past, we are together with Nepalis to get through this difficult days as well and your come back is not too distant future.
To the Nepalese who are waiting to come back home from foreign countries, the Nepal government has been in regular contact with the government of your host country to make sure the host government takes care of you, protects you from Covid-19 and ensures your safety. I believe you are in contact with Nepali embassy there and the embassy will coordinate for your flights soonest possible.
Please, do take care of yourself whatever the situation is. Take positive thoughts, try to have healthy and balanced meals, enough sleep and regular physical exercise. Speak to your family and friends through digital technology on regular basis. Do not read, listen or watch too much of negative news about the crisis. Getting an updated information only once or twice a day will suffice. You may visit IOM Nepal social media pages and webpage where you will find useful messages and information for you.

World Bank predicts sharpest decline of remittances

Global remittances are projected to decline sharply by about 20 per cent in 2020 due to the economic crisis induced by the Covid-19 pandemic and shutdown.

The projected fall, which would be the sharpest decline in recent history, is largely due to a fall in the wages and employment of migrant workers, who tend to be more vulnerable to loss of employment and wages during an economic crisis in a host country. Remittances to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to fall by 19.7 per cent to $445 billion, representing a loss of a crucial financing lifeline for many vulnerable households.

Studies show that remittances alleviate poverty in lower- and middle-income countries, improve nutritional outcomes, are associated with higher spending on education, and reduce child labour in disadvantaged households. A fall in remittances affect families’ ability to spend on these areas as more of their finances will be directed to solve food shortages and immediate livelihoods needs.

“Remittances are a vital source of income for developing countries,” World Bank Group president David Malpass said, adding that the ongoing economic recession caused by Covid-19 is taking a severe toll on the ability to send money home and makes it all the more vital that we shorten the time to recovery for advanced economies. “Remittances help families afford food, healthcare, and basic needs.”

As the World Bank Group implements fast, broad action to support countries, we are working to keep remittance channels open and safeguard the poorest communities’ access to these most basic needs, he adds.

The World Bank is assisting member states in monitoring the flow of remittances through various channels, the costs and convenience of sending money, and regulations to protect financial integrity that affect remittance flows. It is working with the G20 countries and the global community to reduce remittance costs and improve financial inclusion for the poor.

Remittance flows are expected to fall across all World Bank Group regions, most notably in Europe and Central Asia (27.5 per cent), followed by Sub-Saharan Africa (23.1 per cent), South Asia (22.1 per cent), the Middle East and North Africa (19.6 per cent), Latin America and the Caribbean (19.3 per cent), and East Asia and the Pacific (13 per cent).

The large decline in remittances flows in 2020 comes after remittances to LMICs reached a record $554 billion in 2019. Even with the decline, remittance flows are expected to become even more important as a source of external financing for LMICs as the fall in foreign direct investment is expected to be larger (more than 35 per cent). In 2019, remittance flows to LMICs became larger than FDI, an important milestone for monitoring resource flows to developing countries.

In 2021, the World Bank estimates that remittances to LMICs will recover and rise by 5.6 per cent to $470 billion. The outlook for remittance remains as uncertain as the impact of Covid-19 on the outlook for global growth and on the measures to restrain the spread of the disease. In the past, remittances have been counter-cyclical, where workers send more money home in times of crisis and hardship back home. This time, however, the pandemic has affected all countries, creating additional uncertainties.

“Effective social protection systems are crucial to safeguarding the poor and vulnerable during this crisis in both developing countries as well as advanced countries,” global director of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank Michal Rutkowski said. “In host countries, social protection interventions should also support migrant populations.”

The global average cost of sending $200 remains high at 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, only slightly below the previous year. Sub-Saharan Africa continued to have the highest average cost, at about 9 per cent, yet intra-regional migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa comprise over two-thirds of all international migration from the region.

“Quick actions that make it easier to send and receive remittances can provide much-needed support to the lives of migrants and their families,” lead author of the Brief and head of KNOMAD Dilip Ratha said, adding that these include treating remittance services as essential and making them more accessible to migrants.

Remittance flows to the East Asia and Pacific region grew by 2.6 per cent to $147 billion in 2019, about 4.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate in 2018. In 2020, remittance flows are expected to decline by 13 per cent. The slowdown is expected to be driven by declining inflows from the United States, the largest source of remittances to the region. Several remittance-dependent countries such as those in the Pacific Islands could see households at risk as remittance incomes decline over this period. A recovery of 7.5 per cent growth for the region is anticipated in 2021.

Likewise, the average cost of sending $200 to the East Asia and Pacific region dropped to 7.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter in 2019. The five lowest cost corridors in the region averaged 2.6 per cent while the five highest cost corridors averaged 15.4 per cent as of 2019 fourth quarter.

Remittances to countries in Europe and Central Asia remained strong in 2019, growing by about 6 per cent to $65 billion in 2019. Ukraine remained the largest recipient of remittances in the region, receiving a record high of nearly $16 billion in 2019. Smaller remittance-dependent economies in the region, such as Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, particularly benefited from rebound of economic activity in Russia. In 2020, remittances are estimated to fall by about 28 per cent due to the combined effect of the global coronavirus pandemic and lower oil prices.

Similarly the average cost of sending $200 to the ECA region declined modestly to 6.48 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 from 6.67 per cent a year earlier. The differences in costs across corridors in the region are substantial; the highest costs for sending remittances were from Turkey to Bulgaria, while the lowest costs for sending remittances were from Russia to Azerbaijan.

Remittances to South Asia are projected to decline by 22 per cent to $109 billion in 2020, following the growth of 6.1 per cent in 2019. The deceleration in remittances to the South Asian region in 2020 is driven by the global economic slowdown due to the coronavirus outbreak as well as oil price declines. The economic slowdown is likely to directly affect remittance outflows from the United States, the United Kingdom, and EU countries to South Asia. Falling oil prices will affect remittance outflows from GCC countries and Malaysia. Remittance costs: South Asia had the lowest average remittance costs of any region, at 4.95 per cent. Some of the lowest-cost corridors had costs below the 3 per cent SDG target. This is probably due to high volumes, competitive markets, and deployment of technology. But costs are well over 10 per cent in the highest-cost corridors due to low volumes, little competition, and regulatory concerns. Banking regulations related to AML/CFT raise the risk profile of remittance service providers and thereby increase costs for some receiving countries such as Afghanistan and sending countries such as Pakistan.

Hundi, capital flight hits remittance inflow

Increasing hundi, and suspected capital flight has pulled the remittance inflow by 2.3 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20 compared to the same period of the last fiscal year 2018-19.
According to the ‘Current Macreconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’ released by the central bank, Nepal received a total of Rs 304.97 billion in remittances in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20, down by Rs 7.29 billion from the same period in the last fiscal year 2018-19.
The remittance inflow used to increase during major festivals like Dashain, Tihar and Chhath when Nepalis working overseas send more money to their families but this year, the trend has seen reversal as the remittance inflow declined even during the festival months. However, the number of migrant workers leaving the country has been increasing, according to the central bank report. “The number of Nepali workers – both institutional and individual, and also new and legalised, who migrated for foreign employment – increased by 5.6 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year.”
Economists say that the decline in remittances is a result of a higher base figure and a fall in the number of outbound workers last year.
Earlier, more remittances used to come through the formal channel after the government cracked down on Hundi and gold smuggling as well as brought reforms to the customs sector, but the trend seems reversed, economists say, adding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast the global growth of remittance for 2019 at 3 per cent, the lowest level since 2008-09. “Similarly, growth in many labour-receiving countries has also remained low. It could be a factor which has either reduced the demand for workers or wages for workers.”
According to the central bank, there was a remittance growth of 36.4 per cent in the four months of the last fiscal year 2018-19 compared to the same period in a year ago in 2017-18.
Money transfer companies, however, claim that the drop in the remittances is mainly due to government ban on migrant workers to Malaysia for over a year. Malaysia is a major destination for Nepali workers. But the government has reopened Malaysia recently.

Trade deficit narrows by 8.9 per cent

The exports surged by 23.9 per cent to narrow the trade deficit gap by 8.9 per cent to Rs 414.02 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20, while imports fell by 6.9 per cent.
According to ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’ published by the central bank, Nepal exported merchandise goods worth Rs 36.28 billion, the first four months of the current fiscal year, compared to an increase of 11 per cent a year ago, whereas merchandise imports decreased to Rs 450.3 billion against an increase of 35.8 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
As usual exports of palm oil, cardamom, yarn (polyester and other), jute goods, medicine (ayurvedic), among others, has increased but imports of MS billet, petroleum products, gold, aircraft spare parts, cement, among others, decreased.
The central bank report revealed that balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 27.29 billion in the four months of the current fiscal year against a deficit of Rs 57.33 billion in the same period of last fiscal year. But the current account registered a deficit of Rs 37.3 billion against a deficit of Rs 88.43 billion in the same period of previous year, according to the report.
The number of Nepali workers – both institutional and individual, and also new and legalised, who migrated for foreign employment – increased by 5.6 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year. “The number had plunged by 39.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.”
However, despite the rise in outflow of Nepali migrant workers, remittance inflow dropped by 2.3 per cent to Rs 304.96 billion against an increase of 36.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.
Likewise, the year-on-year consumer price inflation (CPI) also stood at 5.76 per cent in mid-November compared to 4.15 per cent a year ago. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 7.96 per cent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 4.07 per cent,” the report revealed, adding that within the food and beverage group, prices of vegetables, fruits, meat and fish and spices sub-groups rose significantly, while prices of housing and utilities, clothes and footwear and education subgroups within the non-food and service group rose moderately in the review month.

Remittance inflow drops by 4.9 per cent

Remittance inflows decreased by 4.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 230.24 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. “In the first quarter of the last fiscal year, remittance inflow had increased by 37.3 per cent year-on-year,” according to the central bank.
According to the central bank, the number of Nepali migrant workers leaving for foreign employment decreased by 3.7 per cent year-on-year in the first three months. During the same period in the last fiscal year, departures had decreased by 34.8 per cent year-on-year. 

BoP records Rs 14.43 billion surplus

The balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 14.43 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year despite a drop in remittance.
According to the Macroeconomic Status – of mid-July to mid-October – report published by the central bank today, the BoP remained in surplus in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to a deficit of Rs 35.42 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year.
The central bank report also revealed that remittance inflows decreased by 4.9 per cent to Rs 230.24 billion, which could have hit the BoP situation but due to surging exports by 14.4 per cent to Rs 27.17 billion the BoP remained surplus.
Though, the export witnessed an increament, the sustainability is under doubt as the largets export product palm oil is not the domestic product and is reexported by importing from Malaysia and Indonesia.
“Mainly exports of palm oil, cardamom, medicine (ayurvedic), jute goods, yarn (polyester and others), among others, increased while exports of zinc sheet, juice, readymade garments, woollen carpets, wires, among others, decreased in the review period,” the report reads, adding that the merchandise imports slumped by 10.3 per cent to Rs 334.95 billion – in first three months of current fiscal year – against a rise of 43.6 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year. “However, the current account registered a deficit of Rs 27.18 billion in the review period compared to Rs 81.74 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year.”
But the trade deficit fell by 12 per cent year-on-year to Rs 307.78 billion in the first quarter largely due to a sharp drop in the import of electrical equipment, readymade garments, petroleum products and gold.
The export-import ratio increased to 8.1 per cent in the review period from 6.4 per cent in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year, the report adds.
Imports from China increased by 11.6 per cent while imports from India and other countries decreased by 12.2 per cent and 19.1 per cent, respectively, the report reads, adding that the share of electrical equipment in total imports fell to 1.9 per cent from 4.5 per cent. “Nepal imported electrical equipment worth Rs 16.81 billion in the first three months of the last fiscal year but in the first three months of the current fiscal year, electrical equipment imports dropped by 61.90 per cent to Rs 6.40 billion.”
Likewise, readymade garment imports dropped by half to Rs 10 billion from Rs 19.86 billion of the last fiscal year’s first quarter. “Gold imports plunged by 99 per cent to Rs 597 million due to increasing price of the precious yellow metal lately.”
According to the report, fruit imports dropped to Rs 2.99 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year compared to Rs 3.76 billion in the same period last fiscal year. “Vegetable imports also dropped to Rs 3.82 billion from Rs 4.40 billion.”
Exports to India increased 35.8 percent while exports to China and other countries decreased 19.9 and 11.7 percent respectively. “Large cardamom export jumped to Rs 1.25 billion in the first three months of this fiscal year from Rs 767 million in same period last fiscal year.”
Nepal imported crude palm oil worth Rs 5.05 billion, which is not produced in Nepal and exported processed oil valued at Rs 5.75 billion.

Remittance inflow drops despite festive season, high exchange rate

Despite festive season and high exchange rate, remittance inflow to the country has started decreasing for the first time in four years.
According to the Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal – based on two months’ data of fiscal year 2019-20 – remittance inflow from abroad decreased by 0.3 per cent to Rs 153.73 billion compared to the same period in the last fiscal year. Nepal had received a total of Rs 154.2 billion in remittances in the first two months of the last fiscal year. The remittance inflow witnessed a drop of Rs 0.47 billion in the first two months compared to last fiscal years’ two months, despite the festive season, which usually witness increase in the remittance inflow.
“In US dollar terms too, the remittance inflow has dropped by 1.3 per cent to $1.36 million in the first two months – in the months during mid-July and mid-September – of the current fiscal year,” the central bank data revealed, adding that the fall in the number of workers abroad has hit the remittance inflow.
According to the central bank report, the number of Nepali migrant workers – institutional and individuals – has increased by only 0.2 per cent in the first two months of the current fiscal year. “Malaysia remained closed for employment of Nepali workers for almost one-and-a-half years. Its impact is now being reflected in the flow of remittance. Not only Malaysia, some other Mid East countries that are major destinations for Nepali migrant workers are also cutting off their projects and vacancies.
However, economists attribute the fall in remittance inflow to increasing hundi and capital flight but the government claimed that it is too early to predict and worry as it is the figure of only two months.