Hundi, capital flight hits remittance inflow

Increasing hundi, and suspected capital flight has pulled the remittance inflow by 2.3 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20 compared to the same period of the last fiscal year 2018-19.
According to the ‘Current Macreconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’ released by the central bank, Nepal received a total of Rs 304.97 billion in remittances in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20, down by Rs 7.29 billion from the same period in the last fiscal year 2018-19.
The remittance inflow used to increase during major festivals like Dashain, Tihar and Chhath when Nepalis working overseas send more money to their families but this year, the trend has seen reversal as the remittance inflow declined even during the festival months. However, the number of migrant workers leaving the country has been increasing, according to the central bank report. “The number of Nepali workers – both institutional and individual, and also new and legalised, who migrated for foreign employment – increased by 5.6 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year.”
Economists say that the decline in remittances is a result of a higher base figure and a fall in the number of outbound workers last year.
Earlier, more remittances used to come through the formal channel after the government cracked down on Hundi and gold smuggling as well as brought reforms to the customs sector, but the trend seems reversed, economists say, adding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast the global growth of remittance for 2019 at 3 per cent, the lowest level since 2008-09. “Similarly, growth in many labour-receiving countries has also remained low. It could be a factor which has either reduced the demand for workers or wages for workers.”
According to the central bank, there was a remittance growth of 36.4 per cent in the four months of the last fiscal year 2018-19 compared to the same period in a year ago in 2017-18.
Money transfer companies, however, claim that the drop in the remittances is mainly due to government ban on migrant workers to Malaysia for over a year. Malaysia is a major destination for Nepali workers. But the government has reopened Malaysia recently.

Remittance inflow drops despite festive season, high exchange rate

Despite festive season and high exchange rate, remittance inflow to the country has started decreasing for the first time in four years.
According to the Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal – based on two months’ data of fiscal year 2019-20 – remittance inflow from abroad decreased by 0.3 per cent to Rs 153.73 billion compared to the same period in the last fiscal year. Nepal had received a total of Rs 154.2 billion in remittances in the first two months of the last fiscal year. The remittance inflow witnessed a drop of Rs 0.47 billion in the first two months compared to last fiscal years’ two months, despite the festive season, which usually witness increase in the remittance inflow.
“In US dollar terms too, the remittance inflow has dropped by 1.3 per cent to $1.36 million in the first two months – in the months during mid-July and mid-September – of the current fiscal year,” the central bank data revealed, adding that the fall in the number of workers abroad has hit the remittance inflow.
According to the central bank report, the number of Nepali migrant workers – institutional and individuals – has increased by only 0.2 per cent in the first two months of the current fiscal year. “Malaysia remained closed for employment of Nepali workers for almost one-and-a-half years. Its impact is now being reflected in the flow of remittance. Not only Malaysia, some other Mid East countries that are major destinations for Nepali migrant workers are also cutting off their projects and vacancies.
However, economists attribute the fall in remittance inflow to increasing hundi and capital flight but the government claimed that it is too early to predict and worry as it is the figure of only two months. 

Central bank plans to incentivise remittance to check hundi

The central bank is planning to incentivise remittance to check the hundi, the illegal method of sending money back home by the migrant workers, and bring it into the formal channel.
Responding the lawmakers at the Finance Committee meeting of the Legislature-Parliament, today, deputy governor of the central bank Chinta Mani Siwakoti said that the Nepal Rastra Bank is planning to bring incentive scheme to encourage the migrant workers send the remittance through banking channel.
However, he said that the Nepali migrant workers in South Korea send only 0.84 per cent of the total amount through the formal channel as there is no official channel to send remittance to Nepal. "Though the government sends workers to South Korea on government-to-government agreement, the formal channel has not been utilised by the workers there to send money to Nepal as the Korean government has not yet allowed the Nepali remittance companies and banks to set network.
"Due to poor banking access, migrant workers have to rely on the informal channels," he said, adding that central bank is making the bank accounts mandatory for the migrant workers.
Informing the panel Global IME chairman Chandra Dhakal said that his company is planning to expand money transfer business in South Korea. The South Korean government has recently introduced a law, allowing foreign companies to open remittance services, he said, urging the government to make it mandatory for migrant workers to open bank account under the Employment Permit Service (EPS).
According to the central bank, Nepal received Rs 623 billion remittance in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year. The figures stood at Rs 665 billion and Rs 617 billion in 2015-16 and 2014-15 respectively.
However, only 70-80 per cent of the total remittance is being sent through formal channels, according to the central bank study. The country received rest of the amount through informal channels, popularly known as Hundi.
Since these informal channels are generally perceived to be less secure, sensitive to misuse for illegal purposes, and less beneficial to the country’s economic development, the central banks and other authorities have been expressing concerns over the use of informal channels to remit funds.
Likewise, Siwakoti said that the government has also been facing challenges to formalise remittance inflow from Dubai. "Most of the migrant workers prefer purchasing gold and other goods rather than remitting money from Dubai," he added.
The government has allowed Nepalis to go to 110 countries to work. There are 1,033 licenced recruiting firms and 40 companies working as fund transfer managers abroad.
The lawmakers on the occasion, asked the government to launch schemes to encourage migrant workers to send remittances through the formal channel. Urging the government to take carrot and stick approach for bringing remittances into the country through formal channel, they also asked to announce schemes to increase the flow of remittances from South Korea, India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through the banking channel.
Former finance minister Surendra Pandey, on the occasion, said that the government should provide incentives to migrants who are working to attract more remittances through banking channel.
"The Pakistani government has provided incentives to their migrant workers to increase the inflow of remittance through formal channel by paying transfer charge that is incurred while remitting money,” he said, asking the government to replicate Pakistan model. "Nepal has received remittance worth Rs 4 trillion in the last 20 years but the inflow of remittances has been slowing down since the last few years, thus, the government should incentivise it."
Likewise, finance minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, on the occasion, informed that the government was committed to attract remittances. "We have discussed with the Nepali ambassador based in South Korea to establish a formal channel to bring remittance from the country during our visit there last month,” he added.
Finance secretary Shanta Raj Subedi, on the occasion, said that the outflow of migrant workers has been declining since the last three years. "The outflow of migrant workers has been declining since the devastating earthquakes of 2015,” he said, adding that decline in outflow of the Nepali migrant workers has hit the remittance inflow. "The government has not been successful in attracting migrant workers to invest in the Foreign Employment Saving Bonds."
Any significant drop in remittances, which equals to 30 per cent of the country's GDP, will hit the country's foreign exchange reserve and balance of payment (BoP) situation.
Likewise, former finance minister Dr Ram Sharan Mahat said that the government needed to develop a mechanism to channelise the remitted money in the productive sectors. "Some 27 per cent of the money that the migrant workers bring home is deposited in the banks and financial institutions," he added.
Also speaking at the meeting, minister for Labour and Employment Farmulha Mansur said that the ministry was bringing a rule that require overseas job aspirants to have two bank accounts before flying abroad. “They can directly transfer their money for saving purpose in one account, while the other account will be opened on their family member's name could be used to transfer money for household expenses," he said, adding that the  mandatory provision will help in increasing the use of formal channel.

दैनिक झन्डै २ अर्ब रेमिटेन्स

नेपालमा दैनिक एक अर्ब ८२ करोड रेमिटेन्स भित्रिन्छ । नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार गत आर्थिक वर्ष २०७२-०७३ मा कुल ६ खर्ब ६५ अर्ब ६ करोड रेमिटेन्स नेपाल भित्रिएको थियो । जसको अर्थ नेपालमा हाल दैनिक रुपमा औसत एक अर्ब ८२ करोड रुपैयाँ रेमिटेन्स भित्रिरहेको छ ।
गत आर्थिक वर्षमा रेमिटेन्स आउने क्रम ७.७ प्रतिशतले मात्रै बढेको देखिए तापनि त्यसभन्दा अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्ष २०७१-०७२ मा भने रेमिटेन्सको वृद्धिदर २०७०-०७१ को दाँजोमा १३.६ प्रतिशतले बढेर ६ खर्ब १७ अर्ब पुगेको थियो । विश्व बैंक तथा एसियाली विकास बैंक जस्ता नेपालका विकास साझेदारहरुले नेपाल भित्रिने रेमिटेन्सको घट्दो वृद्धिदरप्रति चासो व्यक्त गरिसकेका छन् । गैरकानुनी हुन्डी नियन्त्रण गर्न सके रेमिटेन्स दोब्बर हुनसक्ने राष्ट्र बैंकको अनुमान छ ।
गत आर्थिक वर्षदेखि रेमिटेन्सको प्रवाह घट्ने अनुमान गर्न थालिएको छ । किनकि गत वर्ष वैशाखमा गएको महाभूकम्पका कारण वैदेशिक रोजगारीका लागि बिदेसिने नेपालीको संख्या निकै घटेको छ । श्रम विभागका अनुसार आर्थिक वर्ष २०७२-०७३ मा बिदेसिने नेपालीको संख्या १८.४ प्रतिशतले घटेको  छ ।
रेमिटेन्स घट्नुमा वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा जाने नेपालीको संख्या घट्नु एक प्रमुख कारण हो भने हुन्डी अर्को । हालैका वर्षका विभिन्न रेमिटेन्स कम्पनीले आकर्षक योजना ल्याएर बैंकिङ च्यानलबाटै रेमिटेन्स भिœयाउने प्रयास गरिरहे पनि उल्लेख्य मात्रामा हुन्डीमार्फत पैसा नेपाल भित्रिने र नेपालबाट बाहिरिने क्रम बढिरहेको छ ।
नेपालीको रोजगारीको आकर्षक देश मानिने दक्षिण कोरियाबाट वार्षिक रुपमा हुन्डी मार्फत ४१ अर्ब रुपैयाँभन्दा बढी रेमिटेन्स भित्रने गरेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । सरकारी कोटामा (इपिएस) मार्फत कामका लागि दक्षिण कोरिया गएका नेपालीले ९६ प्रतिशत आम्दानी हुन्डीबाट पठाउने गरेको पाइएको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ ।
भौतिक स्थानान्तरणबिनै एक ठाउँको पैसा अर्को ठाँउको व्यक्ति वा संस्थालाई प्रदान गरिने प्रक्रिया हुन्डी हो । १६औंं शताब्दीको सुरुदेखि प्रचलित यो विधि ‘हवाला’ शब्दको अपभ्रंस हुँदै हुन्डी भएको हो । भारतमा अझै पनि यसलाई हवाला नै भनिन्छ ।
तत्कालीन समयदेखि आजसम्म पनि यसको प्रयोग निरन्तर हुँदै आइरहे तापनि हुन्डीलाई कानुनी मान्यता भने कुनै पनि राष्ट्रले दिएको छैन । तत्कालीन समयमा व्यापारिक प्रयोजनको लागि प्रयोग भएको हुन्डी कारोबार आज विभिन्न  गैरकानुनी तथा आपराधिक कार्यमा प्रयोग भइरहेको छ ।
राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार गत आर्थिक वर्षमा मात्र कोरियाबाट ४३ अर्ब रुपैयाँ आउनुपर्नेमा बैंकिंग प्रणालीबाट जम्मा २ अर्ब रुपैयाँमात्रै नेपाल भित्रिएको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ ।
सरकारी कोटामा दक्षिण कोरिया गएका नेपालीको संख्या तथा उनीहरुले पाउने तलबमानको आधारमा हिसाब गरी राष्ट्र बैंकले तथ्यांक निकालेको हो ।   हाल दक्षिण कोरियामा ३० हजार नेपाली कार्यरत छन् । कोरियाली बैंकहरुसँग सम्झौता गरेर नेपालका करिब १ दर्जन कम्पनीहरुले रेमिटेन्स भिœयाउने गरेका पनि छन् । तर, दक्षिण कोरियाबाट उल्लेख्य रुपमा गैरकानुनी रुपमा रेमिटेन्स आउने गरेको पाएपछि राष्ट्र बैंकले सरकारलाई चिठी लेखेरै सुझाव दिएको छ ।
रेमिटेन्स कम्पनीहरुका अनुसार भने कोरिया सरकारले रेमिटेन्स कम्पनी दर्ता गर्न नदिएको कारण हुन्डी बढेको हो । तर पछिल्लो समयमा दक्षिण कोरिया सरकारले विदेशी रेमिटेन्स कम्पनी पनि दर्ता गर्न मिल्ने कानुन बनाउन लागेको छ । दक्षिण कोरिया सरकारले कानुन संसोधन गरेपछि नेपालका रेमिटेन्स कम्पनीहरु कोरिया जाने र त्यसपछि हुन्डीको कारोबार क्रमशः घट्ने राष्ट्र बैंकको विश्वास छ ।
राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार कोरियाबाट आर्थिक वर्ष २०७०-०७१ मा १ अर्ब, २०७१-०७२ डेढ अर्ब र २०७२-०७३ मा दुई अर्ब रुपैयाँ मात्रै बैंकिङ च्यानलबाट नेपाल भित्रिएको छ ।
साधारणतया पैसाको स्थानान्तरण बिनानै रकम एक ठाउँबाट अर्को ठाउँमा सरल अनि छिटो भुक्तानी गरिने हुँदा आम मानिसले हुन्डीको प्रयोग गरिरहेका छन् । बैंक तथा अन्य मान्यताप्राप्त संस्थाभन्दा हुन्डीको प्रयोग धेरै सस्तो पर्ने कारणले पनि सर्वसाधारण यसप्रति आकर्षित भएका हुन् । तर, हुन्डी गैरकानुनी विधि भएकोले यसको बेफाइदा पनि उत्तिकै छ ।
हुन्डीमा नितान्त व्यक्तिगत जमानीमा काम गरिने हुनाले यसको कुनै कानुनी आधार हुँदैन । यसमार्फत अवैधानिक रुपमा धन स्थानान्तरण गरिने हुँदा राज्यलाई भने ठूलो नोक्सानी भइरहेको हुन्छ । यसबाट कालोधन पनि स्थानान्तरण भइरहने हुँदा आपराधिक गतिविधि बढाउन सहयोग गर्छ ।
नेपालीले हुन्डी मार्फत देशमा पठाएको विदेशी मुद्रा त्यहीँका हुन्डीवालाले नेपाली व्यापारीलाई महँगोमा बिक्री गर्छन् । जसको फाइदा व्यापारीले सामान आयात गर्दा न्यूनबिजकीकरण गरेर उठाँउछन् । जसको कारण सरकारलाई राजस्वमा ठूलो घाटा हुन्छ । राजस्व कम हुनासाथ सरकारको लगानी हुने शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य खानेपानीजस्ता अत्यावश्यक सेवा प्रवाहमा असर पर्छ र सरकारको खर्च गर्ने स्रोतमा धक्का लाग्छ ।
वैदेशिक रोजगारीबाट आउने रकमको बलमा उभिएको नेपालको जस्तो अर्थतन्त्रलाई हुन्डीले प्रश्रय पाएमा अर्थतन्त्र ठूलो जोखिममा पर्ने हुन्छ । बिदेसिने नेपालीलाई अर्थतन्त्रमा हुन्डीको नकारात्मक असरको जानकारी दिन सके र रेमिटेन्स बैंकिङ च्यानलबाट ल्याउन सके हालको भन्दा वार्षिक  १०० अर्बदेखि ५०० अर्बसम्म रेमिटेन्स वैधानिक बाटोबाट स्वदेश भित्रिने राष्ट्र बैंकको अनुमान छ । राष्ट्र बैंकको अनुमानमा करिब ४० प्रतिशत रेमिटेन्स अझै पनि हुन्डीमार्फत नेपाल आइरहेको छ ।