Remittances grow by 5 per cent in 2022 despite global headwinds

Remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) withstood global headwinds in 2022, growing by an estimated 5 per cent to $626 billion, according to a report.

“This is sharply lower than the 10.2 per cent increase in 2021, according to the latest World Bank Migration and Development Brief published on Wednesday. 

Remittances are a vital source of household income for LMICs, it reads, adding that they alleviate poverty, improve nutritional outcomes, and are associated with increased birth weight and higher school enrollment rates for children in disadvantaged households. “Studies show that remittances help recipient households to build resilience, for example through financing better housing and to cope with the losses in the aftermath of disasters.”

Remittance flows to developing regions were shaped by several factors in 2022. A reopening of host economies as the Covid-19 pandemic receded supported migrants’ employment and their ability to continue helping their families back home, the report reads. “Rising prices, on the other hand, adversely affected migrants’ real incomes. Also influencing the value of remittances is the appreciation of the ruble, which translated into higher value, in US dollar terms, of outward remittances from Russia to Central Asia.”

In the case of Europe, a weaker euro had the opposite effect of reducing the US dollar valuation of remittance flows to North Africa and elsewhere. In countries that experienced scarcity of foreign exchange and multiple exchange rates, officially recorded remittance flows declined as flows shifted to alternative channels offering better rates.

“Migrants help to ease tight labour markets in host countries while supporting their families through remittances,” World Bank Global Director for Social Protection and Jobs, Michal Rutkowski said, adding that inclusive social protection policies have helped workers weather the income and employment uncertainties created by the Covid-19 pandemic. “Such policies have global impacts through remittances and must be continued.”

By region, Africa stands to be the most severely exposed to the concurrent crises, including severe drought and spikes in global energy and food commodity prices. Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to have increased by 5.2 per cent compared with 16.4 per cent last year. In other regions, remittance flows are estimated to have increased by 10.3 per cent to Europe and Central Asia, where rising oil prices and demand for migrant workers in Russia supported remittances, in addition to the currency valuation effect. In Ukraine, remittance growth is estimated at 2 per cent, lower than earlier projections as funds for Ukrainians were sent to countries hosting them, and hand-carried money transfers likely increased.

Growth in remittance flows is estimated at 9.3 per cent for Latin America and the Caribbean, 3.5 per cent in South Asia, 2.5 per cent in the Middle East and North Africa, and 0.7 per cent in East Asia and the Pacific. In 2022, for the first time a single country, India, is on track to receive more than $100 billion in yearly remittances.

In a special feature on climate-driven migration, the Brief notes that rising pressures from climate change will both drive increases in migration within countries and impair livelihoods. The poorest are likely to be most affected as they often lack the resources necessary to adapt or move. Studies show that migration can play a role in coping with climate impacts, for example, by providing an escape from disasters and also through remittances and other forms of support to affected households. Changes in the international legal norms and institutional frameworks for migration may be required to cope with the challenge of climate-related migration, particularly in the context of cross-border mobility, as is the case for small island nations.

“People throughout history have responded to deteriorating climates by moving to survive,” lead author of the Brief and head of the Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD) Dilip Ratha said, adding that planning for safe and regular migration as a part of adaptation strategies will be required for managing displacement in the affected regions as well as the influx of people in the receiving communities. “National and regional development strategies should be viewed through a climate migration lens.”

Also reported in the Brief is the cost of sending $200 across international borders to LMICs, which remains high at 6 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022, according to the Remittances Prices Worldwide Database. It is cheapest to send via mobile operators (3.5 per cent), but digital channels account for less than 1 per cent of total transaction volume. Digital technologies allow for significantly faster and cheaper remittance services. However, the burden of compliance with Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) regulations continues to restrict access of new service providers to correspondent banks. These regulations also affect migrants’ access to digital remittance services.

Regional Remittance Trends

Remittances to South Asia grew an estimated 3.5 per cent to $163 billion in 2022, but there is large disparity across countries, from India’s projected 12 per cent gain – which is on track to reach $100 billion in receipts for the year – to Nepal’s 4 per cent increase, to an aggregate decline of 10 per cent for the region’s remaining countries. The easing of flows reflects the discontinuation of special incentives some governments had introduced to attract flows during the pandemic, as well as preferences for informal channels offering better exchange rates. Remittances to India were enhanced by wage hikes and a strong labor market in the US and other OECD countries. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) destination countries, governments ensured low inflation through direct support measures that protected migrants’ ability to remit. Sending $200 to the region cost 4.1 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022, down from 4.3 per cent a year ago, the report adds.

The Migration and Development Brief analyzes trends in migration-related SDG indicators: increasing the volume of remittances as a percentage of GDP, reducing remittance costs, and reducing recruitment costs.

Remittances to the East Asia and Pacific region are estimated to have increased by 0.7 per cent to $134 billion in 2022, arresting the decline of the previous two years. Labour shortages in the hospitality and health sectors of high-income economies and higher oil prices benefiting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries boosted demand for workers in 2022, which supported remittances. However, remittances to China are estimated to have dropped by nearly 4 per cent, driven by restrictions on workers from traveling abroad due to Covid-related policies. Remittances as a share of GDP are significant in Tonga (50 per cent) and Samoa (34 per cent). In 2023, remittances are projected to decline by 1 per cent due to weaker conditions in migrants’ destination countries. The cost of sending $200 to the region rose to 6.2 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022 from 5.8 per cent a year earlier.

Remittance flows to Europe and Central Asia are estimated to have increased by 10.3 per cent to $72 billion in 2022. Rising oil prices and demand for migrant workers increased the flow of remittances from Russia to Central Asian countries. The appreciation of the ruble against the US dollar translated into higher value, in dollar terms, of outward remittances from Russia to Central Asia. Remittances to the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan exceed by 30 per cent of GDP. In 2023, remittance receipts are projected to moderate further to 4.2 per cent growth due to a softer outlook for major remittance-sending countries. The cost of sending $200 to the region rose slightly to 6.4 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022 (data excludes corridors originating in Russia).

Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean are estimated to have grown by 9.3 per cent in 2022 to $142 billion. Data for the first nine months of 2022 show a 45 per cent increase for Nicaragua, 20 per cent for Guatemala, 15 per cent for Mexico, and 9 per cent for Colombia. Stronger employment of migrants from Latin America in the US contributed to remittance flows. Remittances received by migrants in transit also contributed to strong flows in Mexico and Central America. As a share of GDP, remittances exceed 20 per cent in El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, and Haiti. In 2023, remittances will likely moderate to 4.7 per cent growth due to a weaker economic outlook for the US, Italy, and Spain. Sending $200 to the region cost 6 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2021, up from 5.6 per cent a year ago.

Remittances to the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa are estimated to have grown by 2.5 per cent in 2022 to $63 billion, compared to a 10.5 per cent growth last year. Slower growth in remittances is partly tied to the erosion of real wage gains in the Euro Area, even as demand for remittances in home countries increased amid deteriorating conditions, including drought in the Maghreb and high imported wheat prices. As a share of GDP, remittances are significant in Lebanon (38 per cent) and West Bank and Gaza (19 per cent). Remittance inflows are projected to grow by 2 per cent in 2023. Sending $200 to the region cost 6.3 per cent on average in the second quarter of 2022, the report reads.

कसको बजेट ?

गणतन्त्रका पाँच वर्षअघि र गणतन्त्रपछिको पाँच वर्षमा अर्थतन्त्रमा खासै परिवर्तन आएको छैन । नागरिकले आर्थिक विकासको अनुभूति गर्न तथा सुशासन एवं आफैंले छानेका प्रतिनिधिमार्फत शासन गर्दा मुलुकको आर्थिक विकास हुन्छ भन्ने आशा गरेका थिए । तर, गणतन्त्रका अघिल्ला पाँच वर्षमा औसत ४.५४ प्रतिशत आर्थिक वृद्धि भएकोमा गणतन्त्रपछिका पाँच वर्षमा पनि औसत ४.४ प्रतिशत नै आर्थिक वृद्धि भएको छ ।

संयोगले गणतन्त्र दिवसकै दिन हरेक वर्ष १५ जेठमा बजेट आउँछ । गणतन्त्रका पाँच वर्षमा नेपाली नागरिकले ६ वटा बजेट देखे । भलै कार्यान्वयनमा भने पाँचवटा मात्रै आएको छ । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको बजेट तत्कालीन अर्थमन्त्री विष्णु पौडेलले तथा वर्तमान अर्थमन्त्री जनार्दन शर्माले ल्याएका कारण ५ वटा बजेट भए पनि गणतन्त्रपछिका बजेट कार्यान्वयनको अवस्था हेर्दा गणतन्त्र अघिभन्दा तात्विक भिन्नता छैन । नागरिकमा परम्परागत राजनीतिक दलप्रति चुलिँदो अविश्वासको प्रमुख कारण पनि यही नै हो । नागरिकले महसुस हुने गरी परिवर्तनको अनुभव गर्न पाएका छैनन् । गणतन्त्रको लाभ पाउनबाट चुकेकै कारण पनि नागरिकमा निराशा छ, जुन स्थानीय तहको निर्वाचनको परिणामले पनि देखाएको छ । आइतबार संसद्को संयुक्त बैठकमा अर्थमन्त्री जनार्दन शर्माले दोस्रो बजेट ल्याए । तर, कसको लागि बजेट ल्याए त ?

पछिल्लो समय मुद्रास्फीति बढेका कारण मध्य आय भएका नागरिकका लागि बजेटमा विशेष केही नभएको वरिष्ठ अर्थविद् प्रा.डा. विश्वम्भर प्याकु¥याल बताउँछन् । सरकारले विश्वमा विविध कारणले बढेको महँगीलाई सरकारी कर्मचारीको तलब बढाएर सम्हाल्ने प्रयास त गरेको छ तर, यसले सामान्य नागरिकलाई असर गर्ने उनको तर्क छ । भारतमा पनि मूल्यवृद्धि भइरहेको तथा रुस तथा युक्रेन युद्धका कारण विश्व आपूर्ति शृंखलामा नकारात्मक असर पनि परेका कारण मूल्यवृद्धि ६ प्रतिशतभित्रै राख्न सरकारलाई कठिन भएको उनको विचार छ ।

सरकारी कर्मचारीको तलब १५ प्रतिशतले बढेका कारण मूल्यवृद्धिलाई त्यसले ढाडस हुने अर्थविद् नरबहादुर थापा बताउँछन् । साथै सरकारले व्यक्ति वा परिवारको आधारभूत जीवन निर्वाह लागतलाई दृष्टिगत गर्दै प्राकृतिक व्यक्ति तथा दम्पत्तिलाई आयकर ऐन, २०५८ ले प्रदान गरेका आयकर छुटको सीमालाई वृद्धि गरी प्राकृतिक व्यक्तिको हकमा ५ लाख र दम्पत्तिको हकमा ६ लाख पु¥याएका कारण पनि मध्यम वर्गीयको जीवन सहज हुने उनको अनुमान छ ।

तर, महँगीलाई तह लगाउन आपूर्ति व्यवस्था सहज बनाउने र निगरानी गर्नुपर्नेमा थापा पनि सहमत छन् । नेपालमा प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति ६० हजारभन्दा कम आय भएका नेपाली निम्न आय वर्गमा पर्छन् । जसको जनसंख्या कूल जनसंख्याको १८ प्रतिशत अर्थात् ५३ लाख छ ।

यस्तै, प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति ६० हजारभन्दा बढी र ३ लाख २ हजारसम्म आय भएका नेपालीलाई मध्यमवर्गीय नेपाली मानिएको छ । जसमा ४२ प्रतिशत जनसंख्या पर्दछन् । अर्थात् नेपालमा मध्यमवर्गीयको जनसंख्या १ करोड २२ लाख छ । त्यसपछि ३ लाख ३ हजारभन्दा माथि प्रतिवर्ष प्रतिव्यक्ति आय हुने नेपालीलाई सरकारले उच्च आय वर्गमा वर्गीकरण गरेको छ । जसमा ४० प्रतिशत अर्थात् १ करोड १७ लाख जनसंख्या पर्छन् । 

महँगीले निश्चित आय भएका मध्यम वर्गीय १ करोड २२ लाख नेपाली मर्माहत हुँदा बजेटले झन् पीडित बनाएको छ । साथै, स्रोत संकुचन भएका बेला आएको बजेटले सामाजिक सुरक्षामा प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्दै सरकारको दायित्व भने बढाएको छ । राजनीतिक दल तथा सरकारले कसले देशमा बढी दिगो र छिटो विकास गर्ने, गरिबी घटाउने भन्ने प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्नुपर्नेमा कसले कम उमेरमा वृद्धभत्ता दिने भन्ने प्रतिस्पर्धा हँुदै गएको छ । त्यसैले स्रोतको दबाबका बीच सरकारले एकातिर आयकरको सीमा पनि बढाएको छ भने अर्कोतिर वृद्ध भत्ता पाउने उमेरलाई ७० वर्षबाट घटाएर ६८ वर्ष बनाएको छ ।  

वित्तीय समानीकरण अनुदान

प्रदेश : ६१ अर्ब ४३ करोड

स्थानीय तह : १ खर्ब २३ करोड

सशर्त अनुदान

प्रदेश : ५७ अर्ब १ ७ करोड

स्थानीय तह : १ खर्ब ८३ करोड

समपूरक अनुदान

प्रदेश : ६ अर्ब ३० करोड

स्थानीय तह : ७ अर्ब २७ करोड

विशेष अनुदान

प्रदेश : ४ अर्ब ५६ करोड

स्थानीय तह : ९ अर्ब १४

राजस्व बाँडफाँट

१६३ अर्ब ३ करोड

Nepal graduates to ‘lower-middle-income’ country: World Bank

Nepal has officially graduated to a ‘lower-middle-income’ country from a ‘low-income’ country, according to the World Bank.
The multilateral development partner – in its latest country classifications by income level report published yesterday – also claimed that the report has, however, taken account of the income classifications through the use of GNI of 2019, which does not reflect the impact of Covid-19.
The World Bank updates the classifications – annually on July 1 – on the basis of gross national income (GNI) per capita. Nepal witnessed GNI per capita rise to $1,090 in 2019, from $960 in 2018, surpassing the $1,036 threshold for lower-middle-income countries in 2020.
According to the World Bank, countries with GNI per capita from $1,036 to $12,535 fall in the category of middle income category, which has further been sub-categorised as lower-middle income ($1,036 to $4,045) and upper-middle income ($4,046 to $12,535) countries. Likewise, countries with GNI per capita of over $12,535 are considered high income, according to the World Bank, which assigns the global economies to three income groups; low, middle, and high-income countries. The countries with GNI per capita of below $1,036 are considered low income.
According to the World Bank, the economies are categorised on the basis of economic growth, inflation, exchange rates, and population growth influence GNI per capita. GNI is the total amount of money earned by the country. GNI is also used to measure the country’s wealth. The income includes the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and the earnings it received from overseas sources including remittance.
Since the classification is based on GNI of 2019, the GNI per capita may reduce in 2020 and Nepal might again fall into the lower income country status, due to coronavirus that has halted the economic activities hurting also the remittance, apart from gross domestic product (GDP).
Nepal has, however, aimed at graduating to the middle-income country status by 2022.

New Target: Cut ‘Learning Poverty’ by at least half by 2030

The World Bank introduced today an ambitious new Learning Target, which aims to cut by at least half the global rate of Learning Poverty by 2030. Learning Poverty is defined as the percentage of 10-year-olds who cannot read and understand a simple story.  Using a database developed jointly with UNESCO Institute of Statistics, the Bank estimates that 53 per cent of children in low- and middle-income countries cannot read and understand a simple story by the end of primary school. In poor countries, the level is as high as 80 per cent. Such high levels of learning poverty are an early warning sign that all global educational goals and other related sustainable development goals are in jeopardy.
“Success in reaching this learning target is critical to our mission,” World Bank Group president David Malpass said, adding that tackling learning poverty will require comprehensive reforms to ensure domestic resources are used effectively. “The target points to the urgency of investments in better teaching and better coordination of vital learning priorities.”
This new target aligns with the Human Capital Project’s efforts at building the political commitment for accelerating investment in people. Much of the variation in the Human Capital Index – used to track countries’ progress in health, education, and survival – is due to differences in educational outcomes.
“We know that education is a critical factor in ensuring equality of opportunities,” said World Bank Group vice president (Human Development) Annette Dixon. “Many countries have almost eliminated learning poverty – with levels below 5 per cent,” Dixon said, adding that it is incredibly high – but in others – and we are putting at risk the future of many children. “That is morally and economically unacceptable. This Learning Target aims to galvanise action toward an ambitious but reachable goal.”
Several developing countries are showing that accelerated progress is possible. In Kenya, progress has been accomplished through technology-enabled teacher coaching, teacher guides, and the delivery of one textbook per child – in both English and Kiswahili – with contents suitable to the level of students. In Egypt, the government has changed its curriculum and assessment systems, so students are evaluated throughout the year, with the key element of the reforms focused on learning, instead of getting a school credential. And in Vietnam, the clear and explicit national curriculum, the near-universal availability of textbooks, and the low absenteeism among students and teachers are credited for contributing to the country’s outstanding learning outcomes.
Unfortunately, in many other countries the current pace of improvement is still worryingly slow. Even if countries reduce their learning poverty at the fastest rates seen over the past 20 years, the goal of ending it will not be attained by 2030.
“Cutting learning poverty by at least half is feasible but requires large political, financial and managerial commitments and a whole of government approach,” said Global Education Director at the World Bank Group Jaime Saavedra. “Taking learning poverty to zero -assuring that all children are able to read- is a fundamental development objective, as is eliminating hunger or extreme poverty,” Saavedra said, adding that all children have the right to read – and in each country, a national dialogue is needed in order to define how and when learning poverty can be eliminated, and to set intermediate targets for the coming years.
The bank says, it will use three pillars of work to help countries reach this target and improve the human capital outcomes of their people: A literacy policy package consisting of country interventions that have proven to be effective in promoting reading proficiency at scale: ensuring political and technical commitment to literacy grounded in adequately funded plans; ensuring effective teaching for literacy, through tightly structured and effective pedagogy; preparing teachers to teach at the right level and providing practical in-school teacher training; ensuring access texts and readers to all; and teaching children in their home language.
A refreshed education approach to strengthen entire education systems, so that literacy improvements can be sustained and scaled up and all other education outcomes can be achieved. This approach comprises of five pillars: i) prepared and motivated learners, ii) effective and valued teachers, iii) classrooms equipped for learning, iv) safe and inclusive schools, and v) a well-managed education system.
An ambitious measurement and research agenda to include measurement of both learning outcomes and their drivers, as well as a continued action-oriented research and innovation, including smart use of new technologies, on how to build foundational skills.
Change is needed at scale, quickly, and for large populations. That cannot be done without technology. Open-source digital infrastructure and information systems will be used to assure resources reach all teachers, students and schools.
Tracking progress calls for a dramatic improvement in the capacity to measure learning, particularly in low-income countries. A World Bank-UNESCO Institute for Statistics partnership will help countries strengthen their learning assessment systems and improve the breadth and quality of country data on learning to better monitor performance over time and in internationally-comparable ways. Further, the World Bank’s new Learning Assessment Platform will enable countries to evaluate student learning more efficiently and effectively.

Nepal plans to be ‘Developed Country’ by 2043

While Nepal is working towards upgrading to ‘middle-income’ status by 2030, the long term goal is to be graduated to a ‘developed country’ status in next two-decade-and-a-half.
The government is currently preparing a 25-year plan under ‘Long Term Vision of Nepal’ to graduate the country into a ‘developed nation’ status by 2043, according to Nepal Planning Commission (NPC). The commission has already prepared a concept note and also held discussions with the federal and provincial governments’ officials lately.
"The vision paper is being drafted to give the country a clear direction in achieving the long-term goal of prosperity as the country has completed political transition with the elections last year," the NPC vice chair Dr Pushpa Raj Kadel said, adding that the main goal of the vision paper is to achieve minimum level of development to be recognised as a developed country by 2043.
Besides the long-term vision, the commission is also preparing a new five-year periodic plan to be implemented from the next fiscal fiscal. According to the draft of next five-year periodic plan, Nepal aims to double per capita income in the next five years from current $1,012. "In line with the plan, the government has planned the current fiscal year as the foundation year for the future economic prosperity," he said, adding that the government is has aimed at an 8 per cent economic growth in the current fiscal year.
The country aims to zero-down poverty level, achieve per capita income at the level of industrial economies and ensure employment for nearly 40 per cent of population belonging to lower income category, he added.

राजनीतिक स्थायित्वले समृद्धि देला ?

अन्ततः संघीय संरचनामा जाने कसरतमा संविधानसभामा सुरु भएको बहसको पटाक्षेप गर्दै नेपाल संघीयतामा प्रवेश गरेको छ । बिहीबारको प्रतिनिधिसभा तथा प्रदेशसभाको निर्वाचनले करिब ७ दशकदेखिको राजनीतिक संक्रमणको अन्त्य पनि गरेको छ । यसबाट लामो समयदेखि ’पर्ख र हेर’ को मनोभावमा रहेका निजी क्षेत्र अब राजनीतिक स्थायित्वले समृद्धिको यात्राको बाटो कोरेको बताउँछन् । राजनीतिक दलहरूले भनेझैं अब राजनीतिक लडाइँको पटाक्षेप भएको त छ, तर आर्थिक क्रान्तीको बाटो पनि सहज भने छैन । विगतमा राजनीतिक स्थिरता नभएर लगानीयोग्य वातावरण भएन भन्ने निजी क्षेत्रको गुनासो केही हदसम्म अब हट्नेछ । निर्वाचनको परिणामपछि नयाँ संविधानअनुसार बन्ने नयाँ सरकारलाई कम्तीमा २ वर्षसम्म हटाउन पाइने छैन । यसबाट पछिल्ला करिब २ दशक लगातार अस्थिरता तथा अनिश्चयका कारण हच्किएको निजी क्षेत्रमा अर्थतन्त्रमा केही सुधार हुन्छ भन्ने विश्वास छ ।
तर, के राजनीतिक स्थिरतामात्र आर्थिक उन्नतीको लागि आवश्यक शर्त हो त ? अर्थविद् विश्व पौडेल भन्छन्, “हैन, राजनीतिक स्थिरता एउटा शर्त हो तर यो नै सम्पूर्ण सत्य भने होइन ।” उनका अनुसार नेपालमा राजनीतिक स्थिरता पहिले पनि थियो । तर, राजनीतिक स्थिरतासंगै उपयुक्त आर्थिक नीति तथा कानुन नभएकोले नेपालको आर्थतन्त्र घिटिघिटि गरेर अगाडि बढ्यो ।
नेपालको इतिहासमा धेरै स्थिर राजनीतिक समय थिए । जस्तै, २०१७ सालदेखि २०४६ सम्म पञ्चायत कालमा राजनीतिक स्थिरता त थियो तर, पंचायतकालीन ३० वर्षमा नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धि भने औषत ३.१३ प्रतिशतमात्र थियो । साथै तीन दशकमा ६ पटक आर्थिक वृद्धिदर नकारात्मक रहेको थियो । २०४६ सालपछि प्रजातन्त्रको आगमन तथा विश्वमा चलेको आर्थिक स्वतन्त्रताको लहर नेपालमा पनि भित्रियो । जसका कारण निजी क्षेत्रले खुलेर उद्योगधन्दा चलाउन पाए । नेपालमा विदेशी लगानी भित्रियो र यसले रोजगारीमात्र सिर्जना गरेन नेपालको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय पनि ह्वात्तै बढाउन मद्दत गर्यो ।
विश्व बैकका अनुसार २०१७ सालमा ५० अमेरिकी डलर हाराहारीमा रहेको नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय ३० वर्षमा बढेर जम्मा १९३ अमेरिकी डलर बढ्यो । तर, २०४६ सालदेखिको पछिल्लो २७ वर्षमा नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आम्दानी बढेर ८५३ अमेरिकी डलर भएको छ । २०४६ सालको परिवर्तनपछि देशमा औद्योगिकीकरण भएका कारण रोजागरीमात्र बढेन २०४७ सालदेखिको पछिल्ला वर्षहरूको औषत आर्थिक वृद्धि ४.५ प्रतिशत रह्यो । अर्थात्, २०४६ सालपछिको सरकारले लिएको आर्थिक नीतिका कारण नेपालले १० वर्षे माओवादी विद्रोह, ९-९ महिनामा फेरिइरहने सरकार, रोजगारदाता तथा कामदारबीचको अप्रिय सम्बन्ध र उद्योगका लागि चाहिने न्यूनतम बिजुलीको चरम अभावका बाबजुद पनि आर्थिक वृद्धिको जग हल्लिन सकेन । भलै, अपेक्षित रूपको आर्थिक वृद्धि तथा रोजगारी निर्माण भने हुन सकेन ।
अब, देश संघीयतामा गइसकेपछिको अवस्थामा सही आर्थिक नीति लिएर आर्थिक वृद्धिपछिमात्रै वितरणमा ध्यान दिनुपर्ने पौडेलको भनाइ छ । “यदि लोकप्रिय बन्ने नाममा अब बन्ने सरकारले बिनास्रोत वितरणतिरमात्रै लाग्यो भने फेरि अर्को दुर्घटना हुने निश्चित छ,” उनी भन्छन् ।
यसका लागि अब बन्ने सरकारले नागरिकको आर्थिक स्वतन्त्रताको प्रत्याभूति गर्नु आवश्यक छ । जहाँ मानिस पुँजी निर्माण गर्ने स्वतन्त्र हुन्छन्, त्यो देशको आर्थिक उन्नति हुने हुनाले सम्पत्तिको अधिकार, दुई पक्षबीच करारको पालना, स्वतन्त्र न्यायपालिका तथा सुरक्षाको प्रत्याभूतिको कारण स्वतन्त्रतापूर्वक हिँडडुल गर्न पाउने अधिकार, स्वतन्त्रतापूर्वक पुँजी निर्माण गर्न पाउने अधिकार तथा स्वतन्त्रतापूर्वक व्यापार गर्न पाउने अधिकारको प्रत्याभूति हुन नसके करिब ७ दशक लगाएर प्राप्त भएको राजनीतिको स्थिरताको जगमा आर्थिक क्रान्ती गर्ने सपना तुषारापात हुन बेर लाग्दैन ।
आर्थिक स्वतन्त्रताअन्तर्गत सरकारले सबै नागरिकलाई बराबरको व्यवहार नगरी कसैलाई छुट वा सुविधा दिनेवित्तिकै त्यसले बजारमा एकाधिकारको सिर्जना गर्दछ र प्रतिस्पर्धाको घाँंटी निमोठ्छ । त्यसबाट सरकारले ‘क्रोनी क्यापिटलिज्म’ बढाउँछ र बजारमा नयाँ खेलाडी आउने वातावरण बन्दैन । पुरानामात्र बजारमा रहिरहने तर नयाँं सिर्जना र नवीन सोच स्थापित हुने वातावरण नबन्नासाथ लगानीकर्ता हतास हुन्छन् । त्यसैले संविधानसभामार्फत बनेको संविधानको कार्यान्वयन सुरु भएसँगै नेपालका विकास साझेदार, विदेशी तथा स्वदेशी लगानीकर्तामा छाएको उत्साह कायम राख्न पनि निर्वाचनपछि जुनसुकै दलको सरकार आएपनि निजी क्षेत्रलाई प्रतिस्पर्धी वातावरणमा काम गर्न दिनेमा नेपाल उद्योग परिसंघका अध्यक्ष हरिभक्त शर्मा आशाबादी छन् । जिम्मेवार राजनीति, सुशासन तथा नीतिगत र कानुनी सुधार, पूर्वाधार विकास र दृढ अठोट नभइ राजनीतिक स्थायित्वलेमात्र आर्थिक वृद्धि तथा समृद्धि प्राप्त नहुने उनको विचार छ ।
“अहिले हाम्रा छिमेकी देश औद्योगिकीकरणको दिशामा अगाडि बढिसकेका छन्, अब हाम्रो पालो,” उनी भन्छन्, “लम्बिँदो राजनीतिक संक्रमणकाल र अनिश्चितताबाट मुक्ति पाएपछि निजी क्षेत्रले पनि देशमा केही गरेर देखाउने छ ।”
निजी क्षेत्रले लगानी बढाउनासाथ देशमा रोजगारी बढ्ने र नेपाली युवाहरू वैदेशिक रोजागरीमा जाने क्रम घट्ने पनि उनको भनाइ छ । संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघको प्रतिवेदनअनुसार देशको बढ्दो बेरोजगारी सम्बोधन गर्न नेपालले प्रत्येक वर्ष ५ लाख ५० हजार रोजगारीको अवसर सिर्जना गर्न आवश्यक छ । त्यो क्रम बढ्दै गएर सन् २०२० सम्म प्रत्येक वर्ष ६ लाख ३३ हजार युवा बेरोजार हुने अवस्था रहेको प्रतिवेदनले जनाएको छ । रोजगारी सिर्जनाका लागि मुलुकभर समानुपातिक रूपमा विकास निर्माण तथा आर्थिक गतिविधि सिर्जना गरिनुपर्छ भने लगानीका लागि निजी क्षेत्रलाई उत्प्रेरित पनि गरिनुपर्दछ ।
संघीयताका कारण काठमाडौंकेन्द्रित अर्थतन्त्र विस्तारित भएर पक्कै प्रदेशमा धेरै नै रोजगारी सिर्जना हुनेछ । संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघीय विकास कार्यक्रमले प्रकाशित गरेको नेपाल मानव विकास सूचकांक २०१४ अनुसार कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा जिल्लागत रूपमा हेर्दा काठमाडौंको योगदान १५.८ प्रतिशत छ । काठमाडौंपछि समग्र अर्थतन्त्रमा दोस्रो धेरै मोरङको ३.९ प्रतिशत, बाराको ३.३ प्रतिशत, झापा र रुपन्देहीको ३.२ प्रतिशत योगदान छ । यस्तै, कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा ललितपुरले २.९ प्रतिशत, सुनसरीले २.७ प्रतिशत, कास्कीले २.५ प्रतिशत, नवलपरासी र पर्सा जिल्लाले २.४ प्रतिशत र सबैभन्दा कम मुगुले ०.२ प्रतिशत एवं हुम्ला, डोल्पा, मुस्ताङ र मनाङको बराबरी ०.१ प्रतिशत योगदान छ । प्रादेशिक विभाजन गर्दा आर्थिकभन्दा राजनीतिक विषयलाई बढी महत्व दिइएकाले सबै प्रदेश र प्रदेशभित्रका एकाइहरूबीच समान आर्थिक अवस्था छैन । त्यसैले, देश अव संघीयतामा गइसकेपछि आर्थिक रूपमा सबल प्रदेश निर्माण गर्नुपर्ने दायित्व पनि राजनीतिक दललाई थपिएको छ ।

With 22 per cent population, South Asia has only 1.3 per cent of world’s income

While South Asia houses 22 per cent of the world’s population, the region, however, has only 1.3 per cent of the world’s income, according to a report.
Sharing some of the findings of the triennial report on the poverty scenario in South Asian countries – produced by the Nepal-based South Asia Alliance for Poverty Eradication (SAAPE) – released at the Institute for Development Communication (IDC), today regional coordinator of SAAPE Prof Netra Timsina, said that the idea that the market will correct imbalances through demand and supply has led to the gradual withdrawal of the state from publicly providing services such as education and health.
A Chandigarh-based study circle, ‘Dialogue Highway’, in collaboration with the IDC, facilitated the release of the report.
"The SAAPE report, in its essence, brings out the failure of South Asian countries to lift their masses out of poverty and withdrawal of the state from providing basic needs such as food, education, health and safety to the people at the margins,” Dialogue Highway managing trustee Devinder Sharma said.
SAAPE is a regional platform of civil society organisations, social movements and people’s network fighting against the structural causes of poverty and social injustice in the region and beyond.
While launching its fifth Poverty Report, SAAPE, which has been publishing the triennial South Asia Poverty Report since 2003, questioned the existing development paradigm. This report is a knowledge document that brings out the commonality of experiences of all South Asian countries.
Punjabi University vice chancellor Prof BS Ghuman said that the report should form the part of the policy planning. "A social audit of poverty alleviation programmes should also be included in the process to assess the results of poverty eradication," he said, adding that the policy should not be top down but participatory.
In a scholarly exposition, IDC director Dr Pramod Kumar said the state had been usurped by the market and the people at the margins do not have a voice.