प्रधानमन्त्रीको चीन भ्रमणः ल्हासामा सुन छ, कान मेरो बुच्चै

प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल आफ्नो एक साता लामो चीन भ्रमणपछि शनिबार ल्हासाबाट काठमाडौं फर्कदै छन् । तर, जम्बो सरकारी टोली लिएर तामझामका साथ गत शनिबार न्यूयोर्कबाट सिधैं चीन पुगेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको उत्तरी छिमेकीको भ्रमण भने ‘ल्हासामा सुन छ, कान मेरो बुच्चै’ भनेझैं भएको छ ।

व्यापारविद् पुरुषोत्तम ओझाकाअनुसार पहिला-पहिला भएका सम्झौताका विषयहरुमात्र दोहोरिने तर कार्यान्वयनमा नजाने कमजोरीका कारण नेपालको चीनसँगको व्यापार घाटा चुलिदो छ ।

व्यापार तथा निर्यात प्रवर्धन केन्द्रको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत आर्थिक वर्षमा चीनसँग नेपालको व्यापार घाटा २ खर्ब २० अर्ब ९५ करोड छ । नेपालले गत आर्थिक वर्ष २०७९/ ८० मा चीनतर्फ १ अर्ब ७६ करोडको मात्र वस्तु निर्यात गरेकोमा चीनबाट भने २ खर्ब २२ अर्ब ७१ करोडको वस्तु आयात गरेको थियो ।

२०७२ सालको भूकम्पपछि नै चीनतर्फका नाका नियमित सञ्चालन भएनन् । कहिले भूकम्प, कहिले कोरोना त कहिले अन्य कारणले सिन्धुपाल्चोकको तातोपानी तथा रसुवाको केरुङ नाका नियमित सञ्चालनमा नआउँदा चीनतर्फ नेपालको निर्यात खुम्चेको छ । ‘नेपालले चीनमा पनि विशेषतः तिब्बतमा निर्यात गर्ने हो’, ओझा भन्छन्, ‘तर चीनको नाकाबन्दीले तिब्बततिरको निर्यात घट्दा समग्रमा नै नेपालको निर्यात खुम्चेको हो ।’

केन्द्रको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत एक दशकमा नेपालले सबैभन्दा धेरै निर्यात आव २०७४/७५मा गरेको छ । आव २०७४/७५ मा २ अर्ब ४७ करोडको निर्यात गरेको नेपालले त्यसअघि वा त्यसपछि पनि गत आवसम्ममा २ अर्बको निर्यात गर्न हम्मे हम्मे परेको देखिन्छ ।

तर आयात भने विगत एक दशकमा नै १ खर्बभन्दा बढी मात्र नभएर कुनै आवमा साढे २ खर्ब पनि नाघेको छ । साढे २ खर्ब र जम्मा २ अर्बको बीचको व्यापारको खाडल मेट्न ६ जना मन्त्री सहितको प्रधानमन्त्री भ्रमणको जम्बो सरकारी टोलीले घुमघामबाट फुर्सद् पाए कि पाएनन् होला, आगामी दिनमा देखिने नै छ ।

व्यापारविद् ओझाकाअनुसार व्यापार अभिवृद्धिको पहिलो शर्त नै सहज सडक सञ्जाल हो । नेपालले चीनसँगको व्यापार बढाउन नाकासम्म पुग्ने अत्यावश्यक सडक निर्माण तथा स्तरोन्नतीमा जोड दिन सकेको छैन । हरेक पटक काठमाडौं वा बेइजिङबाट हुने उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमण अगाडि तथा पछाडि केहि दिन यी नाका खुल्छन् फेरि बन्द भै हाल्छन् ।

यसपटकको संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा पनि नेपाललाई भूपरिवेष्टित मुलुकबाट भू–जडित मुलुकमा परिणत गर्न चीनको पारवहन यातायात र राजमार्गको उपयोगसम्बन्धी यसअघि हस्ताक्षर गरिएका सहयोगसम्बन्धी दस्तावेजहरू कार्यान्वयनलाई निरन्तरता दिन दुबै पक्ष सहमत भएका छन् ।

संयुक्त वक्तव्यका अनुसार नेपालको आवश्यकतालाई मध्यनजर गर्दै अरनिको राजमार्ग मर्मतसम्भार आयोजनाको चौथो चरणको काम सुरू गर्न चिनियाँ पक्ष तयार भएको छ । त्यस्तै, स्याफ्रुबेसी–रसुवागढी राजमार्ग मर्मतको काम चाँडो सुरु गर्न पनि चिनियाँ पक्ष सहमत भएको छ ।

हरेकपटका उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमणमा उहि कुराहरु आउँछन् तर कार्यान्वयनको तहसम्म आइपुग्दैनन् । जस्तै, करिब एक दशकदेखि केरुङ नाकाबाट हुने व्यापार सहजीकरणको लागी स्याफ्रुबेशीको बाटो स्तरोन्नतीको चर्चा भइरहेको छ तर कार्यान्वयन भएको छैन । यसैगरि, तातोपानी नाका पुग्ने बाटोको दूरावस्थामा पनि परिवर्तन आएको छैन ।

लिजी–नेचुङ बन्दरगाह सञ्चालन र यात्रु सेवाका लागि झाङ्मु–खासा बन्दरगाह पुनः सञ्चालन गरिएकोमा काठमाडौं बेइजिङ दुबै पक्षले स्वागत गरेका छन् । लिजी–नेचुङ बन्दरगाहमा नेपाली पक्षको सुविधाका लागि यथाशीघ्र सुधार गर्न सहयोग गर्ने प्रतिवद्धता पनि चिनियाँ पक्षले जनाएको छ ।

पुलान र जिलोङ बन्दरगाहमा यात्रु र कार्गो सेवाको सहज तथा व्यवस्थित सञ्चालनका लागि दुबै पक्षले प्रशंसा गरेका छन् । वक्तब्यकाअनुसार परम्परागत रूपमा सञ्चालन भइरहेका चीन–नेपाल सीमा व्यापार नाकाहरू पुनः खोल्न पनि चीन सहमत भएको छ । चेन्ताङ–किमाथाङ्का, रिवु–ओलाङचुङ्गोला बन्दरगाहलाई छिट्टै खोल्नका लागि निरन्तर सम्पर्क गर्ने विषयमा दुबै पक्ष सहमत भएका छन् ।

यसपटक पनि दुई देशबीचको यातायात सञ्जाल बिस्तार गर्न टोखा–छहरे सुरूङमार्गको सम्भाव्यता अध्ययन चाडो टुङ्गाउन, काठमाडौंको दोस्रो चरणको चक्रपथ विस्तार आयोजनालाई तीव्र गतिमा अघि बढाउन दुबै देश सहमत भएका छन् ।

साथै, जिलोङ–केरुङ–काठमाडौं अन्तरदेशीय रेलवेको सम्भाव्यता अध्ययनको प्रगतिप्रति सन्तुष्टि जनाउदै चीन–नेपाल रेलवे सहयोगसम्बन्धी आठौं कार्यदलको बैठक यथाशक्य चाँडो गर्नेमा पनि नेपाल–चीनबीच सहमति भएको छ । चिनियाँ पक्षले नेपालमा रेलवेसग सम्बन्धित तालिम दिन पनि तयार भएको छ ।

विगतको अनुभवका आधारमा भन्ने हो भने, यो संयुक्त वक्तव्यको मसी सुकिसक्दा पनि कार्यान्वयनमा भने न काठमाडौं न बेइजिङ, दुबैले त्यति वास्ता गर्ने छैनन् । र अर्को उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमणमा यी बुँदाहरु फेरि पनि दोहोरिने छन् ।

तर, बाटो सहज हुँदैमा मात्र नेपालको निर्यात बढ्ने होइन, झनै आयात बढ्न पनि सक्छ, व्यापारघाटाको खाडल झन् बढ्न सक्छ । त्यसैले निर्यात बढाउन चिनियाँ बजारलक्षित नेपाली वस्तुको उत्पादनमा पनि जोड दिनु आवश्यक छ ।

चीनले नेपालसहितका अतिकम विकसित मुलुकहरूबाट निर्यात हुने ९८ वस्तुहरूमा भन्सार शुल्क शून्य सुबिधा दिएको छ । त्यसबाहेक पनि चीनले नेपालका करिब ८ हजार वस्तुको निर्यातमा भन्सार शुल्क मिनाहा गरेको छ । तर, त्यसको फाइदा नेपालले उठाउन सकेको छैन । किनकि नेपालमा ती भन्सार शुल्क मिनाहामा सूचीकृत वस्तुहरुको गुणस्तरीय उत्पादन तथा चिनियाँ बजारको मागअनुरुपको परिमाणमा निर्यात गर्न सक्ने क्षमता छैन ।

चिनियाँ बजारको मागअनुरुपको परिमाण तथा गुणस्तरमा नेपाली वस्तु उत्पादकहरुको चासो तथा रुची नभएको उद्योग मन्त्रालयका एक अधिकारीले बताए । उनका अनुसार नेपाली वस्तु निर्यातमा भएका क्वारन्टाइनमा समस्या तथा गैरभन्सार अवरोध त छँदैछ, त्यसबाहेक पनि नेपालका आफनै कमजोरी पनि चीनतर्फ नेपाली निर्यात नबढ्नुको कारण हो ।

यसका साथै, चीनसँग निरन्तर व्यापार नबढ्नुको कारण भने नेपाली तथा चिनियाँ मुद्राबीचको परिवर्त्य दर पनि एउटा प्रमुख कारण रहेको मन्त्रालयको अध्ययन रहेको उनको भनाइ छ ।

त्यसैले चीन भ्रमणमा रहेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल र उनका चिनियाँ समकक्षी ली छ्याङबीच प्रतिनिधिमण्डलस्तरीय वार्तापछि जारी संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा व्यापार प्रवर्द्धन तथा सहजीकरण, कूटनीतिक सम्बन्ध विस्तार तथा क्षेत्रीय सहयोगका लागि सहकार्य गर्ने विषयमा सहमति भएको भनिए पनि कुटनीतिकरुपमा यस्ता वक्तव्यको अर्थ त होला तर काठमाडौं र बेइजिङबीच देखिने गरि आर्थिक सम्बन्ध कसिलो हुनुको साटो ब्यावहारिकरुपमा झन् खुकुलो हुँदै गएको पाइन्छ ।

राजनीति हाबी, आर्थिक कूटनीति फेल

व्यापारमात्र नभएर नेपालमा चीनको लगानी पनि उल्लेख्य आएको देखिन्न । नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकको आर्थिक अनुसन्धान विभागले गरेको अनुसन्धान प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार २०७९ असार मसान्तसम्ममा नेपालमा ५७ देशको प्रत्यक्ष वैदेशिक लगानी रहेकोमा चीन दोस्रो स्थानमा छ । तर, पहिलो हुने भारत र दोस्रो हुने चीनबीच लगानी रकममा दोब्बरभन्दा बढी फरक छ ।

प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार भारतबाट सबैभन्दा बढी ८८ अर्ब ५९ करोड वैदेशिक लगानी आउँदा चीनबाट जम्मा ३३ अर्ब ४५ करोडमात्र लगानी आएको छ ।

कुनै समय नेपालमा भित्रने वैदेशिक लगानीमा पहिलो स्थानमा रहेको चीन पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा नेपालमा लगानी बढाउन चासो नदिनु नेपालप्रति चीनको विश्वासमा आएको कमी तथा नेपालको कमजोर आर्थिक कूटनीतिको परिणाम हो ।

जसका कारण पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा उत्तरी छिमेकि नेपालको विकासमा भन्दा पनि राजनीतिमा बडि सकृय रहेको आरोप लाग्न थालेको छ । विश्वको एक नम्बर अर्थतन्त्र बन्ने लक्ष्यका साथ अगाडि बढेको छिमेकिबाट नेपालले कुनै आर्थिक फाइदा लिन नसक्नुमा नेपालका राजनीतिक दल अनि नीति निर्माताको पनि असफलता हो । (https://clickmandu.com/2023/09/268812.html)

Nepal, Oman establish bilateral consultation mechanism

Nepal and the Sultanate of Oman have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on establishing a bilateral consultation mechanism.
The MoU was signed at Muscat on the occasion of the official visit of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to the Gulf country. Nepal's ambassador to Oman Sharmila Parajuli Dhakal and head of West Asia Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Oman Hilah Marhoon al-Mammari signed the MoU on behalf of their respective governments today. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Krishna Bahadur Mahara witnessed the signing ceremony.
As Nepal and the Sultanate of Oman have been celebrating the 40th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral relations this year, the conclusion of the MoU reflects the determination of the two governments to enhance and activate different fields of co-operation, particularly on economic, cultural, technological, scientific and educational relations, a press note from the Embassy of Nepal in Muscat reads.
The MoU provides that bilateral meetings will be organised on annual basis or as deemed necessary, alternately in Muscat and in Kathmandu. The MoU comes into force from the date of its signature for a period of five years and is automatically renewable for similar periods.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Deuba and members of his delegation returned to Kathmandu yesterday upon successfully completing the 3-day official visit to the Sultanate of Oman.

Foreign Minister pledges to promote economic diplomacy

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara pledged to make the economic diplomacy more effective through the 'bilateral consultation mechanism' based in those countries that Nepal has established the diplomatic relations.
During the meeting with a delegation from Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI) at his office today, Mahara said that Nepal would establish 'bilateral consultation mechanism' in those countries, where it had not yet setup such mechanism to promote economic diplomacy.
The government would deal with the economic issues with special priority, he told the private sector.
On the occasion, FNCCI president Bhawani Rana suggested the government to send a diplomatic mission head with certain terms of reference and pay a special heed to the export promotion. The delegation also demanded the inclusion of FNCCI representatives during the state's high-level foreign visits to encourage the private sector.

Permanent mechanism for addressing crisis suggested

Experts have suggested a permanent mechanism for fighting the current crisis and also for addressing long-term problems. They have recommended setting up a permanent mechanism – of at least joint-secretary level and including the Finance, Foreign and Commerce and Supplies Ministries – also to facilitate and fast-track intergovernmental cooperation.
Speaking at an interaction organised by Nepal Republic Media today, they also recommended governance efficiency and the promotion of track-2 diplomacy that includes the private sectors of both countries, for the immediate resolution to the current crisis.
They, likewise, recommended effective talks with the agitating Tarai-Madhes centric parties, and with India too for the early solution of the crisis.
In the absence of inter-governmental cooperation, it has taken long to seal a commercial petroleum deal with China, they observed, adding that government inefficiency has fuelled the black market, and the state coffer is losing Rs 3 billion in revenue from petroleum imports per month. "Consumers are compelled to pay Rs 400 per liter of petrol and Rs 6,000 for a cylinder of cooking gas in the black market and the government is losing Rs 3 billion in revenue from petroleum products per month," said trade economist Purushottam Ojha.
If the government does not rein in the black market immediately, it could hit the state mechanism and the state machinery will be unable to function, he added.
Likewise, suggesting that the government immediately start talks with the agitating parties and ensure energy and food security, he said India should be dealt with diplomatically. "Nepalis were united during earlier blockades – in 1970 and 1990 – by India," he said, "However, this time they are divided, which has given room for outsiders to interfere."
The Indian blockade violates international, regional and bilateral treaties, Ojha added. "Nepal, as a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), must internationalise the violation of its rights as a land-locked country," he said, also criticising the government for its lack of diplomatic skill. "The delay in signing a commercial agreement with China for the supply of petroleum products is also unacceptable to the people," said Ojha, who was commerce secretary for long.
Nepal needs to have good trade relations with both India and China, he suggested, adding that it is not good to play India against China.
Likewise, entrepreneur Ananda Bagaria said that the government should immediately start effective talks with the agitating political parties, and chart out short, medium and long term programmes to address crisis such as the current one. "It's high time Nepal revised the Nepal-India trade treaty for the greater benefit of Nepal."
The government should hold talks and promote domestic production in the short term, whereas in the medium term it should prioritise agriculture, and boost exports to India to develop interdependency in the long term, he suggested. "The government should also revise its policies and promote indigenous industry to develop a self-sustainable economy in the long term."
Nepal Freight Forwarders Association president Rajan Sharma seconded Bagaria's ideas. "In the short term, the government should use diplomatic, political and human rights channels to solve the current crisis, whereas in the long term, it should develop hydropower and open the six customs points on the China border, apart from revisiting the Nepal-India Trade Treaty," he suggested.
The Chinese government had earlier asked Nepal to work on opening the six customs points on Nepal-China border. However, the government and the vision-less bureaucracy did not give ear to the Chinese government's request, Sharma added.
Asking the government to sit with the private sector to chart out a plan to fight the current crisis, Sharma complained that the government has not been giving an ear to the private sector, which was suffering badly due to Tarai-Madhesh unrest and Indian economic blockade.

Industrialisation fails to take-off in Nepal

Even after seven decades since Biratnagar Jute Mills, the first industry to be established in Nepal in 1993 BS, industrialisation has gone nowhere in Nepal. This is the primary posit in Nepalma Audyogikaranka Samasya (Challenges of industrialisation in Nepal) written by Bharat Mohan Adhikari, former finance minister and central committee member of the Nepal Communist party, United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML).
One of the main causes behind the lack of industrialisation in Nepal is the private sector’s indifference towards industrialisation. Private sector’s involvement in manufacturing has been negligible, he writes. “Those, who were interested in industry, could also not sustain in the long run. They were infected by the ‘Open by day and fly by night’ syndrome,” claims Adhikari. He, however, fails to give adequate reasons behind this accusation.
The book begins with a run on of the Five-year Plans, from the first Five-year Plan (2013-2018 BS) to the current tenth Five-year Plan and their focus on industrialisation.
He writes, “In the fifth Five-year Plan (2032- 2037 BS), industrial production has recorded an increment by 6.5 per cent and in the sixth Five-year Plan (2037- 2042 BS) it recorded a 10 to 30 per cent increment.” However, the growth trend did not continue.
The reason behind the growth in industrial production during those years might have been state protectionism. “From the second to seventh Five-year Plan, the industrial policy was more protectionist. After the movement in 2046 BS, Nepal embraced the open market economic policy,” Adhikari writes.
“However, the open market policy could not drive the growth of manufacturing industries upwards,” Adhikari adds, “Though it helped industries like education and health, and the financial sector including banking, financial institutes and transport to grow.”
In the ninth Five-year Plan (2054-2059 BS), the production of export-oriented industries declined. “From the industrialisation point of view, the ninth five-year plan was a complete failure,” writes the author.
The book describes how once Nepal was almost self-sufficient in sugar. But now, 30 per cent of the total sugar demand is being met by imports. The author tries to explore the reasons behind the many failures of the privatisation process in Nepal.
Almost all privatised companies are either on the verge of collapse or have already collapsed, further fuelling unemployment. "There is an urgent need for individual case-studies of privatised companies, if privatisation has to be continued successfully."
He emphasises on small-scale industries instead of big industries. "The best thing Nepal can do and should do is commercialisation of agriculture and promotion of industries like tea, coffee, jute, sugar, cigarette, dairy, leather-based, herbs. Building competitiveness in these sectors can increase export and displace import, the author suggests.
Adhikari has given due space to industrialists’ complaints also in the book. In some places he sounds more like an industrialist than an economist.
Lack of basic infrastructures like road network and communication has impeded growth. High cost of electricity, red-tape, government policies, lack of market diversification and bandhs are some of the hurdles that have hit industrialisation in Nepal, he claims.
There is no doubt that the book could be a good source material for scholars. "If it could encourage students, I will be more than happy," the author himself claims.
The book further delves into the emerging relations between industrialisation in Nepal and global trade and regional organisations like WTO, SAFTA, BIMSTEC.
Nepal has to follow the current global trend of industrialisation, but not blindly, Adhikari suggest. Economic diplomacy is as important tool in today’s open, global market. Unless a country is economically independent, it cannot survive as a sovereign country. “Sooner or later we have to come to a national consensus on industrialisation and the economic agenda. And there is no better time than today," he says.

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BOOK REVIEW
Book: Nepalma Audyogikaranka Samasya (Challenges of industrialisation in Nepal)
Author: Bharat Mohan Adhikari
Publisher: Ratna Pustak Bhandar
Price: Rs 295
Pages: 269