प्रधानमन्त्रीको चीन भ्रमणः ल्हासामा सुन छ, कान मेरो बुच्चै

प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल आफ्नो एक साता लामो चीन भ्रमणपछि शनिबार ल्हासाबाट काठमाडौं फर्कदै छन् । तर, जम्बो सरकारी टोली लिएर तामझामका साथ गत शनिबार न्यूयोर्कबाट सिधैं चीन पुगेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको उत्तरी छिमेकीको भ्रमण भने ‘ल्हासामा सुन छ, कान मेरो बुच्चै’ भनेझैं भएको छ ।

व्यापारविद् पुरुषोत्तम ओझाकाअनुसार पहिला-पहिला भएका सम्झौताका विषयहरुमात्र दोहोरिने तर कार्यान्वयनमा नजाने कमजोरीका कारण नेपालको चीनसँगको व्यापार घाटा चुलिदो छ ।

व्यापार तथा निर्यात प्रवर्धन केन्द्रको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत आर्थिक वर्षमा चीनसँग नेपालको व्यापार घाटा २ खर्ब २० अर्ब ९५ करोड छ । नेपालले गत आर्थिक वर्ष २०७९/ ८० मा चीनतर्फ १ अर्ब ७६ करोडको मात्र वस्तु निर्यात गरेकोमा चीनबाट भने २ खर्ब २२ अर्ब ७१ करोडको वस्तु आयात गरेको थियो ।

२०७२ सालको भूकम्पपछि नै चीनतर्फका नाका नियमित सञ्चालन भएनन् । कहिले भूकम्प, कहिले कोरोना त कहिले अन्य कारणले सिन्धुपाल्चोकको तातोपानी तथा रसुवाको केरुङ नाका नियमित सञ्चालनमा नआउँदा चीनतर्फ नेपालको निर्यात खुम्चेको छ । ‘नेपालले चीनमा पनि विशेषतः तिब्बतमा निर्यात गर्ने हो’, ओझा भन्छन्, ‘तर चीनको नाकाबन्दीले तिब्बततिरको निर्यात घट्दा समग्रमा नै नेपालको निर्यात खुम्चेको हो ।’

केन्द्रको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत एक दशकमा नेपालले सबैभन्दा धेरै निर्यात आव २०७४/७५मा गरेको छ । आव २०७४/७५ मा २ अर्ब ४७ करोडको निर्यात गरेको नेपालले त्यसअघि वा त्यसपछि पनि गत आवसम्ममा २ अर्बको निर्यात गर्न हम्मे हम्मे परेको देखिन्छ ।

तर आयात भने विगत एक दशकमा नै १ खर्बभन्दा बढी मात्र नभएर कुनै आवमा साढे २ खर्ब पनि नाघेको छ । साढे २ खर्ब र जम्मा २ अर्बको बीचको व्यापारको खाडल मेट्न ६ जना मन्त्री सहितको प्रधानमन्त्री भ्रमणको जम्बो सरकारी टोलीले घुमघामबाट फुर्सद् पाए कि पाएनन् होला, आगामी दिनमा देखिने नै छ ।

व्यापारविद् ओझाकाअनुसार व्यापार अभिवृद्धिको पहिलो शर्त नै सहज सडक सञ्जाल हो । नेपालले चीनसँगको व्यापार बढाउन नाकासम्म पुग्ने अत्यावश्यक सडक निर्माण तथा स्तरोन्नतीमा जोड दिन सकेको छैन । हरेक पटक काठमाडौं वा बेइजिङबाट हुने उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमण अगाडि तथा पछाडि केहि दिन यी नाका खुल्छन् फेरि बन्द भै हाल्छन् ।

यसपटकको संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा पनि नेपाललाई भूपरिवेष्टित मुलुकबाट भू–जडित मुलुकमा परिणत गर्न चीनको पारवहन यातायात र राजमार्गको उपयोगसम्बन्धी यसअघि हस्ताक्षर गरिएका सहयोगसम्बन्धी दस्तावेजहरू कार्यान्वयनलाई निरन्तरता दिन दुबै पक्ष सहमत भएका छन् ।

संयुक्त वक्तव्यका अनुसार नेपालको आवश्यकतालाई मध्यनजर गर्दै अरनिको राजमार्ग मर्मतसम्भार आयोजनाको चौथो चरणको काम सुरू गर्न चिनियाँ पक्ष तयार भएको छ । त्यस्तै, स्याफ्रुबेसी–रसुवागढी राजमार्ग मर्मतको काम चाँडो सुरु गर्न पनि चिनियाँ पक्ष सहमत भएको छ ।

हरेकपटका उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमणमा उहि कुराहरु आउँछन् तर कार्यान्वयनको तहसम्म आइपुग्दैनन् । जस्तै, करिब एक दशकदेखि केरुङ नाकाबाट हुने व्यापार सहजीकरणको लागी स्याफ्रुबेशीको बाटो स्तरोन्नतीको चर्चा भइरहेको छ तर कार्यान्वयन भएको छैन । यसैगरि, तातोपानी नाका पुग्ने बाटोको दूरावस्थामा पनि परिवर्तन आएको छैन ।

लिजी–नेचुङ बन्दरगाह सञ्चालन र यात्रु सेवाका लागि झाङ्मु–खासा बन्दरगाह पुनः सञ्चालन गरिएकोमा काठमाडौं बेइजिङ दुबै पक्षले स्वागत गरेका छन् । लिजी–नेचुङ बन्दरगाहमा नेपाली पक्षको सुविधाका लागि यथाशीघ्र सुधार गर्न सहयोग गर्ने प्रतिवद्धता पनि चिनियाँ पक्षले जनाएको छ ।

पुलान र जिलोङ बन्दरगाहमा यात्रु र कार्गो सेवाको सहज तथा व्यवस्थित सञ्चालनका लागि दुबै पक्षले प्रशंसा गरेका छन् । वक्तब्यकाअनुसार परम्परागत रूपमा सञ्चालन भइरहेका चीन–नेपाल सीमा व्यापार नाकाहरू पुनः खोल्न पनि चीन सहमत भएको छ । चेन्ताङ–किमाथाङ्का, रिवु–ओलाङचुङ्गोला बन्दरगाहलाई छिट्टै खोल्नका लागि निरन्तर सम्पर्क गर्ने विषयमा दुबै पक्ष सहमत भएका छन् ।

यसपटक पनि दुई देशबीचको यातायात सञ्जाल बिस्तार गर्न टोखा–छहरे सुरूङमार्गको सम्भाव्यता अध्ययन चाडो टुङ्गाउन, काठमाडौंको दोस्रो चरणको चक्रपथ विस्तार आयोजनालाई तीव्र गतिमा अघि बढाउन दुबै देश सहमत भएका छन् ।

साथै, जिलोङ–केरुङ–काठमाडौं अन्तरदेशीय रेलवेको सम्भाव्यता अध्ययनको प्रगतिप्रति सन्तुष्टि जनाउदै चीन–नेपाल रेलवे सहयोगसम्बन्धी आठौं कार्यदलको बैठक यथाशक्य चाँडो गर्नेमा पनि नेपाल–चीनबीच सहमति भएको छ । चिनियाँ पक्षले नेपालमा रेलवेसग सम्बन्धित तालिम दिन पनि तयार भएको छ ।

विगतको अनुभवका आधारमा भन्ने हो भने, यो संयुक्त वक्तव्यको मसी सुकिसक्दा पनि कार्यान्वयनमा भने न काठमाडौं न बेइजिङ, दुबैले त्यति वास्ता गर्ने छैनन् । र अर्को उच्चस्तरीय भ्रमणमा यी बुँदाहरु फेरि पनि दोहोरिने छन् ।

तर, बाटो सहज हुँदैमा मात्र नेपालको निर्यात बढ्ने होइन, झनै आयात बढ्न पनि सक्छ, व्यापारघाटाको खाडल झन् बढ्न सक्छ । त्यसैले निर्यात बढाउन चिनियाँ बजारलक्षित नेपाली वस्तुको उत्पादनमा पनि जोड दिनु आवश्यक छ ।

चीनले नेपालसहितका अतिकम विकसित मुलुकहरूबाट निर्यात हुने ९८ वस्तुहरूमा भन्सार शुल्क शून्य सुबिधा दिएको छ । त्यसबाहेक पनि चीनले नेपालका करिब ८ हजार वस्तुको निर्यातमा भन्सार शुल्क मिनाहा गरेको छ । तर, त्यसको फाइदा नेपालले उठाउन सकेको छैन । किनकि नेपालमा ती भन्सार शुल्क मिनाहामा सूचीकृत वस्तुहरुको गुणस्तरीय उत्पादन तथा चिनियाँ बजारको मागअनुरुपको परिमाणमा निर्यात गर्न सक्ने क्षमता छैन ।

चिनियाँ बजारको मागअनुरुपको परिमाण तथा गुणस्तरमा नेपाली वस्तु उत्पादकहरुको चासो तथा रुची नभएको उद्योग मन्त्रालयका एक अधिकारीले बताए । उनका अनुसार नेपाली वस्तु निर्यातमा भएका क्वारन्टाइनमा समस्या तथा गैरभन्सार अवरोध त छँदैछ, त्यसबाहेक पनि नेपालका आफनै कमजोरी पनि चीनतर्फ नेपाली निर्यात नबढ्नुको कारण हो ।

यसका साथै, चीनसँग निरन्तर व्यापार नबढ्नुको कारण भने नेपाली तथा चिनियाँ मुद्राबीचको परिवर्त्य दर पनि एउटा प्रमुख कारण रहेको मन्त्रालयको अध्ययन रहेको उनको भनाइ छ ।

त्यसैले चीन भ्रमणमा रहेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल र उनका चिनियाँ समकक्षी ली छ्याङबीच प्रतिनिधिमण्डलस्तरीय वार्तापछि जारी संयुक्त वक्तव्यमा व्यापार प्रवर्द्धन तथा सहजीकरण, कूटनीतिक सम्बन्ध विस्तार तथा क्षेत्रीय सहयोगका लागि सहकार्य गर्ने विषयमा सहमति भएको भनिए पनि कुटनीतिकरुपमा यस्ता वक्तव्यको अर्थ त होला तर काठमाडौं र बेइजिङबीच देखिने गरि आर्थिक सम्बन्ध कसिलो हुनुको साटो ब्यावहारिकरुपमा झन् खुकुलो हुँदै गएको पाइन्छ ।

राजनीति हाबी, आर्थिक कूटनीति फेल

व्यापारमात्र नभएर नेपालमा चीनको लगानी पनि उल्लेख्य आएको देखिन्न । नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकको आर्थिक अनुसन्धान विभागले गरेको अनुसन्धान प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार २०७९ असार मसान्तसम्ममा नेपालमा ५७ देशको प्रत्यक्ष वैदेशिक लगानी रहेकोमा चीन दोस्रो स्थानमा छ । तर, पहिलो हुने भारत र दोस्रो हुने चीनबीच लगानी रकममा दोब्बरभन्दा बढी फरक छ ।

प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार भारतबाट सबैभन्दा बढी ८८ अर्ब ५९ करोड वैदेशिक लगानी आउँदा चीनबाट जम्मा ३३ अर्ब ४५ करोडमात्र लगानी आएको छ ।

कुनै समय नेपालमा भित्रने वैदेशिक लगानीमा पहिलो स्थानमा रहेको चीन पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा नेपालमा लगानी बढाउन चासो नदिनु नेपालप्रति चीनको विश्वासमा आएको कमी तथा नेपालको कमजोर आर्थिक कूटनीतिको परिणाम हो ।

जसका कारण पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा उत्तरी छिमेकि नेपालको विकासमा भन्दा पनि राजनीतिमा बडि सकृय रहेको आरोप लाग्न थालेको छ । विश्वको एक नम्बर अर्थतन्त्र बन्ने लक्ष्यका साथ अगाडि बढेको छिमेकिबाट नेपालले कुनै आर्थिक फाइदा लिन नसक्नुमा नेपालका राजनीतिक दल अनि नीति निर्माताको पनि असफलता हो । (https://clickmandu.com/2023/09/268812.html)

Nepal resumes exports through Rasuwagadhi border after 3 years

The northern border that has remained almost closed after 2015, has opened from today as Nepal exported some eight containers of goods to China through the Rasuwagadhi border customs.

Export from Nepal has been completely stalled for about 36 months citing the Covid-19 pandemic, whereas trade has been irregular though Tatopani customs since 2015 devastating earthquake. 

Chief Customs Officer at Rasuwa Customs Office Narayan Prasad Bhandari confirmed the export of goods worth around Rs 5.07 million today through the Rasuwagadhi customs today. 

“Exports that had stalled due to the Covid pandemic have started from today,” he said, adding that bamboo stools, handicrafts and copper ornamental items were exported to China today. "The export of goods and the movement of people through Rasuwagadhi customs was closed from January 29, 2020."

According to the customs report, goods worth Rs 763 million were exported to China in the fiscal year 2019-20. However, a limited import was allowed and about 14 Chinese containers were imported from the border daily, though irregularly. 

Nepali traders have been blaming China for imposing an 'undeclared blockade' on Nepal by halting the free movement of goods to and from the landlocked country via both Tatopani-Khasa and Rasuwagadhi-Kerung customs points. Nepali traders have been voicing their concerns time and again but the apathy from the Chinese side pushed them into huge losses. 

Ready-made clothes, apples, shoes, bags, motor batteries, plastic goods are imported from China through the border, whereas pashmina, carpets, bamboo stools, broom grass, refined flour, vegetable ghee, noodles, pasta, biscuits, juice, jam, beaten rice, lapsi candy, chocolate, sugar and chewing gum are exported to China.

According to a press note issued by the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu, “The opening of two-way trade of Kerung port will promote Nepal’s exports to China, reduce the trade deficit in Nepal, solve the trade imbalance, and further improve the connectivity between China and Nepal.”

Nepal and China trade through Tatopani and Rasuwagadhi border points. But the Tatopani border point is still closed for two-way trade. 

The resumption of bilateral trade could be a coincidence with the formation of a new government, that is said to be orchestrated by the northern neighbour, a day ago in Nepal.

There will be an official ceremony to celebrate the resumption of two-way trade tomorrow. The ceremony will be attended by delegates of the Department of Commerce of Xizang Autonomous Region, the Lhasa Customs, the General Station of Immigration Inspection of Xizang Autonomous Region, the Health Commission of Xizang Autonomous Region, and other relevant departments.

The Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu has released pictures of export from Nepal.

घोषणापत्रका नारा र नागरिकका समस्या

सात दशक लामो राजनीतिक संक्रमणपछि नेपालमा वि.सं. २०७२ मा संविधानसभामार्फत संविधान जारी भयो । राजनीतिक संक्रमण सकिएका कारण राजनीतिक दलहरूले आर्थिक समृद्धिको नारा अगाडि सारे । वि.सं. २०७४ को पहिलो संघीय प्रतिनिधिसभा तथा प्रदेशसभाको चुनावमा राजनीतिक दलहरूले आ–आफ्ना घोषणापत्रमार्फत विकास तथा समृद्धिका योजना अगाडि सारे । नेपाली नागरिकले उनीहरूको घोषणापत्र बिर्सेका छैनन् । राजनीतिक दलहरू फेरि अर्को चुनावका लागि नयाँ घोषणापत्र धमाधम सार्वजनिक गर्दै छन् । तर, नागरिकले राजनीतिक दलहरूका घोषणापत्रमा विश्वास गर्ने अवस्था छैनन् । किनकि बितेका पाँच वर्षमा राजनीतिक दलहरूले जेजे गरे, त्यसका आधारमा नागरिकमा राजनीतिक दलहरूप्रतिको विश्वास घट्दो छ । राजनीतिक दलहरू घोषणापत्रमा लेखिएका बाहेक सबै काम गरेर आफ्नो सत्ताको आयु लम्ब्याउन उद्यत रहन्छन् भन्ने बुझाइ सर्वव्यापी छ । 

नौलानौला शब्दजाल तथा महŒवाकांक्षी योजना घोषणापत्रमा लेख्ने तर सत्ता प्राप्त गर्न अंकगणितको सहारा लिने राजनीतिक दलहरू व्यवस्था परिवर्तन गरे पनि नागरिकको अवस्था परिवर्तन गर्न माखो मार्दैनन् भन्ने विगत पाँच वर्षको अनुभवका आधारमा नागरिक आसन्न संघीय तथा प्रदेशको चुनावप्रति उत्साहित छैनन् । त्यसैले राजनीतिक दलहरूले आफ्ना विगतका गल्तीको समीक्षासहित घोषणापत्र आउँछ भन्ने आशा पनि हालै सार्वजनिक भएका घोषणापत्र हेर्दा निराशामा परिणत भएको छ । सत्तामा हँुदा एउटा भाषा अनि सत्ताबाहिर हँुदा अर्को भाषा बोल्न पोख्त राजनीतिक दलहरूमा आफ्ना विगतका गल्ती–कमजोरी नस्विकार्ने तथा सस्तो राष्ट्रियताका नारा मात्रै अघि सार्ने परम्परागत प्रवृत्तिले संघीयता नै खतरामा पर्ने अवस्था आउँछ । त्यसैले राजनीतिक दलहरूले आफ्ना प्रवृत्ति तथा शैली परिवर्तन गरेर विगत पाँच वर्षको समीक्षा गर्नु भविष्योन्मुख हुने पहिलो सर्त हो । तर, सत्तामुखी चिन्तनले ग्रस्त नेपाली राजनीतिक दलहरू नागरिकको अवस्थाप्रति अचेत हुनु आफैंमा दुःखद छ । सत्तामुअी तथा भूतमुखी चिन्तनले आफ्नो प्रशस्ति गाउन त सहज हुन्छ, तर नागरिकलाई मुलुकप्रति विश्वास गर्ने वातावरण बनाउन सहयोग गर्दैन । 

पाँच वर्षअगाडि गरेका वाचा तथा वास्तविक उपलब्धिका तथ्यांकको तुलना गर्ने हो भने नागरिक किन राजनीतिक दलहरूप्रति आक्रोशित छन् स्पष्ट हुन्छ । आज नेपाल जुन आर्थिक तथा गैरआर्थिक समस्यासँग जुधिरहेको छ, त्यसको दोष आफ्नो हैसियत तथा सत्तारोहण वर्षका आधारमा लिने आँट नगर्ने राजनीतिक दलहरूले कसरी भविष्यमा नागरिकप्रति जवाफदेही राजनीति गर्छन् भन्ने प्रश्नको उत्तरसँगै धमाधम सार्वजनिक घोषणापत्रका औचित्य पनि जोडिन्छ । हरेक वर्ष ल्याउने बजेट पनि कार्यान्वयन गर्न नसक्ने सरकारहरूले फेरि सत्तामा आए घोषणापत्र कार्यान्वयन गर्छन् भन्ने विश्वास नागरिकले किन गरिदिनुपर्ने हो, प्रश्न नमीठो लाग्न सक्छ । तर, वास्तविकता यही हो । किनकि इतिहासकै बलियो तथा करिब दुईतिहाइको अघिल्लो सरकार तथा वर्तमान सरकार दुवैको बजेट कार्यान्वयनप्रति कुनै जिम्मेवारीपन देखिएन । मुलुक संघीय गणतन्त्रमा गएपछि नागरिकका सेवाप्रवाह तथा आर्थिक–सामाजिक विकासमा चुस्तता आउने अपेक्षा गरिए तापनि व्यवस्थामात्र परिवर्तन भयो । तर, बजेटजस्तो संवेदनशील आर्थिक नीति कार्यान्वयन हुन सकेन । आर्थिक वर्ष २०७३-०७४ मा ६६.९ प्रतिशत भएको पुँजीगत खर्च, आर्थिक वर्ष २०७४-०७५ मा ८०.५ प्रतिशत, आर्थिक वर्ष २०७५-०७६ मा ७६.९ प्रतिशत, आर्थिक वर्ष २०७६-०७७ मा ४६.२ प्रतिशत, आर्थिक वर्ष २०७७-०७८ मा ६४.८ प्रतिशत र आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-०७९ मा ५७.२३ प्रतिशतमा खुम्चिएकोे छ । 

दिगो विकास लक्ष्य प्राप्तिका लागि तथा नेपालले उच्च अंकको आर्थिक वृद्धि हासिल गर्न पूर्वाधारमा कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको १० प्रतिशत लगानी आवश्यक छ । तर, सरकारहरू पुँजीगत बजेट खर्च गर्न सक्दैनन् । घोषणापत्रमा लेखिँदैमा खर्च गर्ने क्षमता बढ्ने होइन, न त वित्तीय व्यवस्था हुने हो । लगानी जुटाउने तथा पूर्वाधार निर्माणका समस्या हटाउने काम पनि घोषणापत्रहरूले गर्दैनन् । 

वि.सं. २०७४ को संघीय संसदीय चुनावपछि करिब साढे तीन वर्ष तत्कालीन नेकपा र नेकपा एमालेले गठबन्धनले सरकार चलायो । त्यसपछि नेकपा माओवादी केन्द्रको प्रमुख सत्ता साझेदारीमा नेपाली कांगे्रसको नेतृत्वमा सरकार बनेको छ । तर, नेपाली कांग्रेसभित्रै आर्थिक नीतिमा एउटै विचार बन्न नसकेका बेला पूर्ण रूपमा फरक आर्थिक नीतिको वकालत गर्ने राजनीतिक दलसँगको सत्ता साझेदारीले अर्थतन्त्र कता गइरहेको छ भन्ने पत्तो हुने कुरै भएन, जसका कारण नागरिकका आफ्नो पेसा–व्यवसाय गरी खान पाउने संवैधानिक मौलिक हक तथा अधिकार कुण्ठित हुँदै छन् । मुलुक संघीय गणतन्त्रमा गएपछिका पछिल्ला पाँच वर्षमा बनेका सरकारहरूले बिस्तारै बजार अर्थतन्त्रलाई नियन्त्रणमुखी अर्थतन्त्र बनाउँदै लगेका छन् । सरकारको गलत प्रवृत्ति निजी क्षेत्रमा सर्दै छ । सरकार बजार अर्थतन्त्रबाट विमुख हुन थालेपछि निजी क्षेत्र पनि सरकारको लहैलहैमा लागेर आफ्नै खुट्टामा बन्चरो हान्न अग्रसर हुँदै छ । फलस्वरूप मुलुकमा रोजगारी सिर्जना हुने वातावरण संकुचित बन्दै छ । सरकार बजारको चक्रमा हस्तक्षेप गर्ने अनि निजी क्षेत्र त्यसको साक्षी बस्ने वर्तमान अवस्थाले निजी क्षेत्र पनि संकुचन हुँदै छ । अर्थतन्त्रको लगाम निजी क्षेत्रको हातबाट फेरि सरकारलाई नै सुम्पने हो भने नियन्त्रित अर्थतन्त्रमा नागरिकका लागि वैदेशिक रोजगारी मात्र एक विकल्प हुन जान्छ ।

कांग्रेस सभापति शेरबहादुर देउवाले डेढ वर्षदेखि गठबन्धन सरकारको नेतृत्व गर्दा पनि अघिल्लो सरकारले लिएका गलत आर्थिक नीतिलाई सुधार्न नसक्नु तथा सत्ता गठबन्धनले आगामी सरकार बनाउने वाचा गर्नुले अर्थतन्त्रमा अन्योल कायमै हुने देखिन्छ । त्यसैले नेपाली कांग्रेसले ७ प्रतिशतको आर्थिक वृद्धि तथा १२ लाख नयाँ रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्ने घोषणा गर्नु तथा पूर्व प्रधानमन्त्री डा. बाबुराम भट्टराईले बर्सेनि ५ लाख रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्ने घोषणापत्रमा लेख्नु उस्तैउस्तै नै हो । किनकि आफू सत्तामा रहँदा अघिल्लो सरकार तथा वर्तमान सरकारले पनि कति रोजगारी सिर्जना गरे, कति नागरिक वैदेशिक रोजगरीमा जान घटे, त्यसको पनि तुलना गर्नुपर्ने होला । अनि मात्र घोषणापत्रका रोजगारी सिर्जनाका कथा सुपाच्य होला । 

त्यसैले चुनावमा कर्मकाण्डका लागि घोषणापत्र सार्वजनिक गर्नु एउटा कुरा हो तर कार्यान्वयन गर्ने संयन्त्र एवं कार्यान्वयन गर्ने दृढ तथा कठोर इच्छाशक्ति बनाउनु अर्को कुरा हो । वर्तमान सरकारी वा गैरसरकारी संयन्त्रले राजनीतिक दलका घोषणापत्र कार्यान्वयन गर्ने क्षमता, दक्षता एवं दृढ तथा कठोर इच्छाशक्ति उत्पन्न गर्न सक्ने सम्भावना पनि घोषणापत्र बनाउँदा हेक्का पु¥याएको भए सायद ती वास्तविक लाग्न सक्थे । त्यसैले घोषणापत्र यथार्थमा आधारित छन् वा हवाई उडानमा भन्ने हेक्का राख्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । 

कृषिप्रधान मुलुक नेपालमा ३ खर्ब हाराहारीको कृषिजन्य वस्तु आयात गर्ने अनि आत्मनिर्भर अर्थतन्त्र बनाउने वाचा पनि अर्को एउटा ढोंग हो, राजनीतिक दलहरूको । तुलनात्मक लाभ भएका उद्योगमा लगानी बढाउन राष्ट्रिय उद्योगीहरूलाई प्रोत्साहन दिने नारा पनि घोषणापत्रको अर्को भ्रमको खेती हो । यस्तै, अर्को प्रचलित शब्दावली राजनीतिक दलहरूको घोषणापत्रमा लेखिएका राष्ट्रिय उद्योगीहरू तथा राष्ट्रिय पुँजीपतिको परिभाषा सायद घोषणापत्र लेख्ने दललाई पनि थाहा नहुन सक्छ । 

यसरी दिनदहाडै झूटको खेती गरेर घोषणापत्र भन्दै नागरिकलाई अलमल्याउने परम्परामा वामपन्थी दलहरूको दक्षता रहेकोमा अब प्रजातान्त्रिक भनिने दल पनि सामेल भएका कारण घोषणापत्र औचित्यहीन हुँदै गएका छन् । आफ्ना राजनीतिक प्रतिबद्धता तथा सिद्धान्तलाई तिलाञ्जली दिएर चुनाव लडेका राजनीतिक दलहरूले घोषणापत्र कार्यान्वयन गर्लान् भनेर आशा नगर्न विगतको पाँच वर्षको अनुभव नै पर्याप्त छ । 

आर्थिक, सामाजिक विषयलाई मुख्य एजेन्डा नबनाउने अनि संघीय संसद्को पहिलो पाँचवर्षे कार्यकाल सकिँदा पनि प्रतिनिधिसभाले अत्यावश्यक कानुन बनाउन असफल सरकारहरूकै कारण संघीयताविरोधीको चलखेल बढेको छ । त्यसमाथि नेपालमा संसद्को काम के हो भन्ने विषयमा पनि नागरिक तहदेखि नै गलत बुझाइ छ, जसका कारण सांसद्हरू पनि कानुन बनाउने आफ्नो मुख्य काम छोडेर धारो, कुलो अनि विद्यालय तथा बाटो बनाउन बजेट माग्दै हिँड्छन् । नागरिकले पाँच वर्ष मुलुकलाई अग्रगमनतिर लैजान आवश्यक कानुन बनाऊ भनेर चुनेर पठाएका सांसद् चुनाव जित्ने ध्याउन्नमा सानातिना विकासका बजेटका पछाडि लाग्ने गरेका कारण पनि मुलुकलाई संघीयता कार्यान्वयनमा अत्यावश्यक कानुन अझै बन्न सकेका छैनन् । सम्पत्ति शुद्धीकरणका कानुन हुन् वा उद्योग–व्यवसाय सञ्चालनका लागि तथा अर्थतन्त्रको विस्तार वा विकासका लागि चाहिने विभिन्न ऐन–कानुन संशोधनका प्रक्रिया हुन्, सधैं अन्तिम अवसरमा हतार–हतार पास गर्ने प्रचलन छ । सरकारले बिनाकानुन मुलुक चलाउनु भनेको अधिनायकवादलाई जन्म दिनु हो । किनकि लोकतन्त्र भनेको आवधिक चुनाव मात्र होइन । चुनावद्वारा जितेर आएका जनप्रतिनिधिले गर्ने नागरिकको सेवा तथा सरकारलाई सही बाटोमा डो¥याउने कानुन बनाउने तथा कार्यान्वयनमा अर्जुनदृष्टि दिने कामले मात्र लोकतन्त्र तथा संघीय गणतन्त्रको सफलता वा असफलता निर्धारण गर्छ । त्यसैले घोषणापत्र सबैथोक होइन तर कार्यान्वयनको उचित मापदण्ड तथा समय–तालिका एवं सामाजिक रूपान्तरणको कठोर प्रतिबद्धता पनि सँगै आवश्यक छ । (कारोबार)

Imports increased by 68.13 percent in first quarter

Imports increased by 68.73 per cent to Rs 543.57 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year.

According to the data from Customs Department, the import expenses surged by 63.73 per cent to Rs 478.52 billion in the first quarter, though the export volume has doubled. However, the export earning in the first quarter that stood at Rs 65.52 billion is almost enough to pay a single commodity -- petroleum products -- bill. "The trade deficit stood at 

The country had imported merchandise worth Rs 292.26 billion in the first quarter of the last fiscal year, due to restriction in trade because of Covid-19 pandemic. 

The worsening trade balance has, however, added pressure in foreign currency reserves, which has been going down in recent months also due to drop in remittance earnings. The forex reserve has depleted pushing the balance of payments (BoP) -- one of the key macroeconomic indicators -- into the red zone. The BoP recorded negative in the past few months also due to a whopping rise in imports along with slow rate of remittance inflows.

Nepal imported Rs 23.32 billion worth diesel, Rs 12.86 billion worth petrol, and Rs 12.18 billion worth cooking gas, apart from kesosene, which comes to around the country's total export earning.

Apart from petroleum products, Nepal imported Rs 11.07 billion worth gold, and Rs 10.17 billion worth silver in the firts quarter of the cirrent fiscal year, despite the government's increament in customs of the silver.

Nepal imports Rs 5 billion rice in a month

 Despite claiming to be an agricultural country, Nepal has imported Rs 5 billion worth rice only in a month, revealed the data of Department of Customs (DoC).

According to the data of Department of Customs, the country imported Rs 18.20 billion worth rice only in five months of the current fiscal year 2020-21. “In the four months, the country had imported Rs 13 billion worth rice.”

Though, the government claims to have been encouraging the agriculture production in the country with various programmes, Nepal has imported Rs 33.03 billion worth food items – in the five months of the current fiscal year – including rice, as the domestic production fell short to meet the growing demand for food in the country. “In the four months, the country had imported Rs 25 billion worth food items.”

The country neither has manpower – due to flooding of youth to the foreign employment – nor has it adopted to the mechanisation in the agriculture to boost the production and productivity, apart from comparatively expensive production cost compared to India. “Nepal has imported rice from India,” according to the department.

The cheap rice from India is making Nepali rice face hard times to get market, and lack of government policy push has made it even worse making Nepal the import economy largely also due to growing dependence on remittance that has fuelled the imports. 

Palm oil tops the export basket

Export of high-value products – identified by Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) – dropped by 6 per cent year-on-year to Rs14.8 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year, though government has prepared the NTIS list with much hope and expectation.
The government – with the help of development partners – has prepared NTIS 2016, the third-generation trade integration strategy, with nine high-value products and three services to bridge the ballooning trade deficit. However, a non-NTIS product – palm oil – has topped the list of export basket failing the government’s home work of years. 
According to the Trade and Export Promotion Centre (TEPC), palm oil exports contributes to 25 per cent of the total exports as it rose to Rs 11.5 billion – in the first five months – also nearly eight times the amount shipped in the same period last year.
Tariff exemptions on Nepali exports to India under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) Agreement have domestic traders an incredible advantage. As countries outside of South Asia are slapped with tariffs of 54 per cent on palm oil and 45 per cent on soybean oil, Nepali traders took the advantage of tariff difference to push exports of palm oil and soybean oil to India, according to the World Bank Nepal Development Update released in December. “Nepal capitalised on the arbitrage opportunity and significantly increased exports of the two products,” it reads, adding that it might, however, not be a sustainable option in the long run. “The export performance of products under the NTIS including all fabrics, textile, yarn and rope, cardamom, carpet, footwear, ginger, leather, medicinal and aromatic plants, pashmina, and tea was dismal in the last fiscal year, contracting by 4.8 per cent year-on-year compared with an expansion of 17.9 per cent year-on-year in the fiscal year 2017-18.”
The high-value products – under NTIS – also dropped due to a fall in production, eroding competitiveness of Nepali products because of lack of inspection and quality checks. Though, large cardamom exports soared by 50.7 per cent to Rs 1.86 billion, shipments of all other products including ginger, tea, medicinal and aromatic plants, fabrics, yarn, textiles, rope, leather, footwear, pashmina and carpets were down, compared to the same period last fiscal year.
Exports of pashmina – one of the ‘pride products’ – declined by 17 per cent to Rs 1 billion due to a lack of effective branding and promotional activities in the international market.
The TEPC data reveals that ginger exports slipped by 14.65 per cent to Rs 236 million, whereas tea plunged by 24.88 per cent to Rs 1.45 billion despite 5 per cent cash incentive on exports of processed tea, large cardamom, ginger, leather goods, processed medicinal herbs and oil products with value addition of at least 50 per cent.
According to the World Bank, Nepal’s export value to GDP ratio reached 1.1 per cent, lower than the 4 per cent target set for 2020, due to a lack of raw materials, skilled manpower and required infrastructure like processing centres, lab testing and storage facilities.
The sharp rise in exports of palm oil, which has no ‘value addition’, could largely impact Nepali farmers as it could offset the demand for Nepali products but traders keep exploiting easy loopholes on foreign products that yield them higher profits, and the incumbent government is also encouraging them to show off the increased exports during its tenure.
Time and again, traders have been taking advantage of the duty difference but it has not been sustainable business as there have been instances of betel-nut, vegetable ghee, and many more. 

Trade deficit narrows by 8.9 per cent

The exports surged by 23.9 per cent to narrow the trade deficit gap by 8.9 per cent to Rs 414.02 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20, while imports fell by 6.9 per cent.
According to ‘Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal’ published by the central bank, Nepal exported merchandise goods worth Rs 36.28 billion, the first four months of the current fiscal year, compared to an increase of 11 per cent a year ago, whereas merchandise imports decreased to Rs 450.3 billion against an increase of 35.8 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
As usual exports of palm oil, cardamom, yarn (polyester and other), jute goods, medicine (ayurvedic), among others, has increased but imports of MS billet, petroleum products, gold, aircraft spare parts, cement, among others, decreased.
The central bank report revealed that balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 27.29 billion in the four months of the current fiscal year against a deficit of Rs 57.33 billion in the same period of last fiscal year. But the current account registered a deficit of Rs 37.3 billion against a deficit of Rs 88.43 billion in the same period of previous year, according to the report.
The number of Nepali workers – both institutional and individual, and also new and legalised, who migrated for foreign employment – increased by 5.6 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year. “The number had plunged by 39.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.”
However, despite the rise in outflow of Nepali migrant workers, remittance inflow dropped by 2.3 per cent to Rs 304.96 billion against an increase of 36.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year.
Likewise, the year-on-year consumer price inflation (CPI) also stood at 5.76 per cent in mid-November compared to 4.15 per cent a year ago. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 7.96 per cent whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 4.07 per cent,” the report revealed, adding that within the food and beverage group, prices of vegetables, fruits, meat and fish and spices sub-groups rose significantly, while prices of housing and utilities, clothes and footwear and education subgroups within the non-food and service group rose moderately in the review month.

Trade deficit down by 8.9 per cent

Trade deficit fell by 8.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 414 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year 2019-20 due to a sharp drop in imports of petroleum products, iron and steel, aircraft and aircraft parts and vehicles.
According to Department of Customs (DoC), imports dropped by 6.92 per cent to Rs 450.29 billion, whereas exports swelled by 23.90 per cent year-on-year to Rs 36.27 billion – totaling the foreign trade to Rs 486.57 billion – between mid-July and mid-November.
The drop in imports – the fourth consecutive month in the current fiscal year – has also resulted in a reduction in the trade deficit though it has hit the revenue mobilisation target of the government. However, there is no cause for celebration as the increase in exports of a single product – palm oil – is not the domestic product as Nepal does not produce palm oil. Palm oil is imported from third country and then re-exported to India as traders are cashing in on the tariff difference between Nepal and India. The data shows that palm oil accounts for nearly one-fourth of the total export.
Imports of iron and steel – the key construction materials – dropped sharply by 33 per cent to Rs 52.65 billion in the first four months, though the drop in the import of iron and steel does not augur well as it shows that construction activities in the country are slowing down.
Likewise, imports of fuel and bitumen also fell by more than 15 per cent as the country imported fuel and bitumen worth Rs 65.21 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year. Similarly, imports of aircraft and parts also reduced pulling the imports figure down. According to customs data, imports of aircraft and parts dropped by 39 per cent to Rs 10.68 billion, whereas automobile imports dropped by more than 6 per cent to Rs 34.74 billion due to the government’s unfriendly policy towards auto mobile sector.
The central bank has also fixed the down payment for vehicle loans at 50 per cent of the value discouraging the auto imports. In the past, the down payment on a car was as low as 10 per cent.

Tibet-Nepal Economic and Trade Fair starts

A four-day ‘China's Tibet-Nepal Economic and Trade Fair’ started at the United World Trade Center in Kathmandu today.
The fair – jointly organised by the Nepal-China Chamber of Commerce and Industries, Tibet Border Trade Chamber and Trade Development Bureau of Ministry of Commerce of China – aims at exhibiting and studying the market potential of both Nepali and Chinese products.
Addressing the inauguration of the fair, secretary at the Ministry Commerce and Supplies Baikuntha Aryal said that the ballooning trade deficit between Nepal and China should be reduced, and such trade fair will help decrease the trade deficit.

Trade deficit narrows by 12 per cent in first quarter

Trade deficit shrinks to Rs 307 billion by 12.02 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year compared to the same period of the last fiscal year, due to government move to tighten imports of luxury goods including automobiles. This is the third straight month imports have fallen and export earnings have swelled.
According to the Department of Customs (DoC), Nepal spent Rs 334.94 billion in imports – between mid-July and mid-October – which is down by 10.34 per cent compared to the imports of the same period in the last fiscal year. “Likewise, the export earnings soared by 14.41 per cent to Rs 27.16 billion during the period.”
Based on the new import and export data, Nepal spends Rs 12.3 for import for every export worth Re 1. “The import to export ratio has also declined to 12.3:1, compared to the ratio was 15.7:1 during the same period last year,” the department data revealed, adding that
Though, the government boosted the decline in imports to an outcome of the policy reforms to restrict import of luxury goods including the automobiles and boost exports, the slowdown in imports has bleed the government coffer as the government failed to meet the revenue mobilisation target. The government has doubled the excise duty on imported automobiles through the budget for the current fiscal year 2018-19, whereas the central bank has jacked up the down payment on auto loans to 50 per cent of the value of the vehicle tightening the auto imports.
Nepal exported goods worth Rs 17.87 billion to India – almost 66 per cent of the total export earnings in the first quarter – due to increased exports of palm oil. Similarly, Nepal imported Rs 207.41 billion –which is 62 per cent of the total imports during the period – worth goods from India. “The trade deficit with India has also dropped to Rs 189.54 billion from Rs 222.95 billion in the first quarter of the last fiscal year.”
The rosy picture of the rise in exports is mainly because traders have been importing crude palm oil and refining it for export to India. According to the department, Nepal exported palm oil worth Rs 5.7 billion in the first three months of this fiscal year compared to Rs 374 million in the same period in the last fiscal year.
The government has raised the export incentives in major exportable items to 3 per cent to 5 per cent from 1 per cent to 2 per cent. The government provides export incentives to the goods that have at least 50 per cent value addition inside the country.
Despite the incentives, the country has seen a slump in the export of other major commodities including ginger, woollen carpets and textile floor coverings, shawls, scarves, and iron wire and non-alloy steel.

Trade deficit narrows

Trade deficit narrowed by 3.1 per cent to Rs 211 billion in the two months of the current fiscal year 2019-20.
While merchandise exports increased by 25.9 per cent to Rs 18.5 billion in the two months of this fiscal compared to an increase of eight per cent in the same period of previous fiscal year, merchandise imports decreased by 1.2 per cent to Rs 229.50 billion, according to the Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal – based on two months’ data of fiscal year 2019-20 – narrowing the trade deficit gap, though in per cent only.
As the government tightened imports of luxury goods, imports of vehicles and spare parts fell by 9.3 per cent to Rs 16.30 billion, the data revealed, adding that oil imports also declined by 8 per cent to Rs 28.46 billion. The export has increased as the country witnessed an export of palm oil, which – according to the economists – is not sustainable.
Nepal’s imports from China, however, went up by 39.2 per cent due to an increased inflow of clothes, fruits and electronic goods for the festival season. Likewise, shipments to India jumped by 46 per cent while export earnings from India dropped by 17.4 per cent in the first two months of the current fiscal year. “Export earnings from third countries increased by less than 1 per cent.”
Likewise, earnings from the export of cardamom, cinnamon, handicrafts and thread to India almost doubled, apart from exports of Nepali lokta paper and its products and other handicraft items which also increased by a notable amount to third countries.
Similarly, the balance of payments (BoP) remained at a surplus of Rs 8.83 billion compared to a deficit of Rs 25.45 billion in the first two months of the previous fiscal year.
Based on the imports of two months of current fiscal year, the foreign exchange reserves of the banking sector is sufficient to cover prospective merchandise imports of 9.6 months, and merchandise and services imports of 8.4 months, according to the report.
However, year-on-year consumer price inflation stood at 6.16 per cent in mid-September against 3.86 per cent a year ago due to increasing price of food. “Food and beverage inflation stood at 6.51 per cent, whereas non-food and service inflation stood at 5.89 per cent in mid-September,” the report revealed.
The government has targeted to contain the inflation under 6 per cent in the current fiscal year, but the increasing price hike has challenged the government target.

Country records Rs 67.4 billion BoP deficit

The outflow of money surpassed by Rs 67.4 billion in the last fiscal year 2018-19 due to a rise in imports that increased by 13.9 per cent to Rs 1,418.54 billion, according to a central bank report.
According to the annual macroeconomic statistics of the last fiscal year 2018-19 published by the central bank today, the balance of payments (BoP) remained a deficit of Rs 67.4 billion compared to a surplus of Rs 960 million a fiscal year ago.
The imports increased by 13.9 per cent to Rs 1,418.54 billion in the last fiscal year, whereas merchandise exports increased by 19.4 per cent to Rs 97.11 billion in the fiscal year 2018-19 widening the total trade deficit by 13.5 per cent to Rs 1,321.43 billion. The trade deficit stands at 38.1 per cent of the country’s total gross domestic product (GDP).
The central bank data revealed that the current account also registered a deficit of Rs 265.37 billion in the last fiscal year. “The current account deficit stood at Rs 247.57 billion a fiscal year ago in 2017-18,” the report reads, adding that the gross foreign exchange reserves decreased to Rs 1,038.92 billion as on mid-July 2019 from Rs 1,102.59 billion in the previous year. “Of the total foreign exchange reserves, reserves held by the central bank decreased to Rs 902.44 billion in mid-July 2019 from Rs 989.40 billion a year ago.”
The decision of reference price for the customs has helped capital flight, said an economist without wanting to be named. “The finance minister Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada claimed that the reference price will help check revenue leakage,” he said, adding that the commodity price is very unstable in the international market and the notorious traders got an opportunity for capital flight. “The decision of reference price cost the country dearly as it has put pressure on foreign exchange reserve.”
However, reserves held by banks and financial institutions – except central bank – increased to Rs 136.47 billion in mid-July 2019 from Rs 113.19 billion a year ago.
“The domestic credit expanded by 20.1 per cent in the last fiscal year compared to a growth of 26.5 per cent a fiscal year ago,” the macroeconomic report reads, adding that claims on private sector increased 19.1 per cent compared to a growth of 22.3 per cent a fiscal year ago. “
Though, the number of Nepali migrant workers – institutional and individual-new and legalised – decreased by 32.6 per cent in the last fiscal year against a decrease by 9.3 per cent a fiscal year ago, the remittance inflows increased by 16.5 per cent to Rs 879.27 billion.
The central bank macroeconomic report also claims that inflation remained at 4.6 per cent on an annual average in the last fiscal year. “Though the Nepali economy has been growing in the last three fiscal years at a higher pace than the average growth rate of the last decade, some of the macroeconomic indicators, particularly related to the external sector, are still worsening,” the report adds.
While the government has been harping about the above-average growth, economists claim that the current remittance-led and consumption-based growth is not sustainable. “The economy is estimated to have grown by 7.1 per cent in the last fiscal year 2018-19.”
Apart from boosting exports to improve the BoP position and bettering the growth, economists call for creating a favorable environment to attract private sector investment, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI), to make the growth investment and productivity driven. Despite the government's efforts to bring in foreign investment, the FDI inflow fell to Rs 13.07 billion in the last fiscal year 2018-19 compared to Rs 17.51 billion FDI a fiscal year ago in 2017-18.
Even the private sector investment – within the country – has been hit by shortage of loanable funds in the banking sector resulting to the lending rate going up to 16 per cent, which is very high.

Trade deficit balloons to Rs 1.32 trillion

The total trade deficit of the country jumped by 14.26 per cent to Rs 1.32 trillion in the last fiscal year 2018-19, according to the Department of Customs (DoC).
The country imported commodities worth Rs 1.42 trillion whereas its exported merchandise worth Rs 97.11 billion only widening the trade deficit gap to Rs 1.32 trillion that is equal to the budget of the same fiscal year.
Ballooning trade deficit has been raising concern about external sector stability of the country though the imports grew by 13.93 per cent in the last fiscal year compared to a fiscal year ago whereas exports grew by 19.36 per cent.
Nepal’s exports to imports ratio fell to 1:14.6 in the last fiscal year from 1:15.3 per cent a fiscal year ago. It means Nepal imported Rs 14.6 worth of goods for every rupee worth of export earnings.
Likewise, Nepal registered trade deficit with 134 countries – out of a total of 157 trading partners – whereas the country maintained positive trade balance with 23 countries only. But the trade surplus Afghanistan (Rs 14.29 million), Central African Republic (Rs 275.85 million) and Maldives (Rs 6.2 million) are negligible to the whopping imports of the country.
Nepal suffered the highest trade deficit with India at Rs 855.19 billion followed by China at Rs 203.04 billion. “Nepal exported goods and commodities worth Rs 62.73 billion to India, whereas the country imported goods and commodities worth Rs 917.92 billion with the largest trading partner,” the department data revealed, adding that trade deficit with China ballooned to Rs 203.4 billion in the last fiscal year. “Nepal exported goods worth Rs 2.1 billion to China, while it imported goods worth Rs 205.52 billion.”
Though the government has curtailed the imports of luxury goods to retain the trade deficit, the widening trade deficit has become a headache to the government. The increasing purchasing power fuelled by the remittance has enlarged the country’s import bill.

Country records BoP deficit of Rs 90.83 billion

The trade deficit has ballooned by 17 per cent to Rs 1211. 96 billion, in the first 11 months of the last fiscal year 2018-19, which recently ended on July 16.
The merchandise exports increased by 18.7 per cent to Rs 87.83 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal 2018-19 compared to an increase of 10 per cent a year ago, according to the central bank that has reported the merchandise imports increment by 17.3 per cent to Rs 1,299.80 billion compared to an increase of 23.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year, according to the ‘Current Macroeconomic’ report of the central bank. “The trade deficit stands at around 37 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.”
The balance of payments (BoP) deficit has also stood at Rs 90.83 billion during mid-July 2018 to mid-June 2019, the report reads revealing that the country recorded balance of payments (BoP) deficit is pushed by the current account that has also registered a deficit of Rs 248.72 billion till mid-June of fiscal 2018-19, though such deficit was Rs 210.24 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year 2017-18. The current account involves the net value of trade in goods, trade in services, transfers and income from abroad.
Likewise, balance of payments (BoP) records a country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world under two subheadings, current account and capital account.
The BoP deficit has also put pressure on foreign exchange reserve, which has decreased to Rs 1,030.88 billion as at mid-June 2019 from Rs 1,102.59 billion as at mid-July 2018. In US dollar terms, the gross foreign exchange reserves dropped to $9.25 billion as at mid-June 2019 from $10.08 billion as at mid-July 2018, the central bank report stated, adding that the rising trade deficit has brought down the foreign currency reserves by 8.2 per cent to $9.25 billion. At this rate, Nepal has enough to cover the import of goods and services for less than eight months.
However, the remittance inflow has increased by 17.5 per cent to Rs 799.02 billion – the major source of the country’s foreign currency earnings for over two decades – in the first 11 months of 2018-19 compared to an increase of 7.3 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year. In US dollar terms, such inflows increased by 8.1 per cent in the review period compared to 9.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Likewise, the country also faced net loss of Rs 10.56 billion from the service trade. The central bank’s data revealed that Nepalis going abroad spent Rs 80.45 billion while the country earned Rs 68.63 billion from tourists who visited Nepal.
Under the capital account, capital transfer – an investment in purchase of fixed assets – registered at Rs 13.88 billion, down from Rs 15.02 billion a fiscal year ago. “The amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) that the country received also went down to Rs 11.81 billion from Rs 15.88 billion.”

Trade deficit touches Rs 1.21 trillion per cent

While Nepal has exported goods worth Rs 87.83 billion, it has imports Rs 1.29 trillion worth goods widening the trade deficit to Rs 1.21 trillion in the 11 months. The trade deficit – of the 11 months of the last fiscal year – stood at Rs 1.03 trillion.
According to Trade and Export Promotion Centre (TEPC), the contribution of exports in the country’s foreign trade reached 6.3 per cent in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year, which is up by 19.2 per cent compared to the same period of last fiscal. “In the first 11 months of current fiscal year, Nepal exported goods worth Rs 87.83 billion,” the centre informed, adding that the country had exported goods worth Rs 73.69 billion in the same period of last fiscal year. Nepal had exported Rs 67.60 billion worth goods in the fiscal year 2016-17.
Nepal’s top exports include polyester thread, palm oil, woollen carpets, iron and steel products, readymade garments, jute and jute products, juice, cardamom, tea and pashmina, according to the TEPC report that further reads that Nepal exported polyester and other threads worth Rs 9.03 billion, which is 19.4 per cent more in the 11 months of the current fiscal year compared to the same period of the last fiscal year. “The export of iron and steel products stood at Rs 5.97 billion, while Nepal exported carpets worth Rs 6.77 billion.”

Trade deficit hits at Rs 1.21 trillion

On soaring import bills, the trade deficit is going to equalise the annual budget in the current fiscal year as the trade deficit has widened by 17.40 per cent to Rs 1.21/9 trillion – surpassing the revised annual budget of Rs 1.2 trillion for the current fiscal year – in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year compared to the deficit of Rs 1.03 trillion in the same period of the last fiscal year. The trade deficit totalled Rs 1.16 trillion in the last fiscal year 2017-18.
A trade deficit is the difference between a country's export earnings and import expenses. According to the Department of Customs (DoC), Nepal’s foreign trade reached Rs 1.38 trillion – in the 11 months between mid-July and mid-June – which is an increase by 17.50 per cent compared to Rs 1.18 trillion in the same period of previous fiscal year. “The imports have a 93.7 per cent share in the total foreign trade whereas exports have only 6.3 per cent share,” the department data revealed, adding that Nepal imported goods worth Rs 1.29 trillion – some 17.45 per cent more than the imports in the 11 months of last fiscal year when it had imported Rs 1.10 trillion – whereas compared to imports, the ratio of exports is very low. “In the 11 months of the current fiscal year, Nepal’s export earnings swelled to Rs 87.83 billion as it is an increase by 18.18 per cent compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.”
According to the department, Nepal exported merchandise worth Rs 74.32 billion in the 11 months of the last fiscal year. “The import-export ratio at the moment stands at 1:14.8, which means for every rupee of goods exported, Nepal imports goods worth Rs 14.8.”
The import-export ratio stood at 1:14.9 in the same period of last fiscal year, the department data revealed.
According to the customs statistics, Nepal enjoyed a trade surplus with only 21 countries among its 155 trading partners. However, among the 155 trading partners, the trade deficit is highest with southern and northern neighbours. Nepal faced a trade deficit worth Rs 785 billion with India in the first 11 months as it imported goods worth Rs 841 billion from India and exported only Rs 56.5 billion to the southern neighbour. Likewise, the trade deficit with China stands at Rs 184 billion as it imported goods worth Rs 186 billion from China and exported only Rs 1.96 billion worth goods to the northern neighbour in the 11 months of the current fiscal year.
Petroleum is the largest import of Nepal as usual. The country imported Rs 231.72 billion worth petro products including mineral oils, bitumen and mineral waxes. Likewise, the iron and steel import bill came to Rs 132.30 billion and Nepal paid Rs 109.87 billion on importing machinery and mechanical appliances, the department report revealed, adding that imports of vehicles and parts and electrical equipment stood at Rs 84.42 billion and Rs 81.71 billion, respectively. “Nepal imports cereals worth Rs 47.97 billion.”
Similarly, Nepal's largest exports were animal or vegetable fats and oils and related products worth Rs 10.99 billion. Export earnings from man-made fibres including acrylic yarn totalled Rs 9.03 billion, and revenues from the export of coffee, tea and spices amounted to Rs 7.61 billion. Exports of woolen carpets and flooring materials were worth Rs 7.05 billion whereas Nepal earned Rs 5.43 billion from the export of iron and steel.

Government bans import of energy drinks and flavoured synthetic drinks

The government has banned the import of energy drinks including Red Bull and flavoured synthetic drinks in a move to check widening trade deficit.
Though the importers have expressed serious concern over the ban, the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies published the notice to ban the import of energy drinks and flavoured synthetic drinks in the Nepal Gazette on June 17.
The notice reads that the government has completely barred import of caffeine mixed energy drinks after the cabinet’s approval of National Working Guideline-2019 that has been brought to minimise the trade deficit.
The importers have expressed serious concern over the ban claiming that the ban is against the norm of international trade. “It will hit sales of Red Bull, one of the most popular energy drinks in Nepal,” according to the Indian agent of Red Bull. The agent today has written a letter to the Nepalese Embassy in India to clarify the government’s move to restrict the import of the energy drink.
According to advisor of Indian company of Red Bull energy drinks Deepak Mishra, unless and until the product is proven to harm human health and the environment, such restriction measure is unlawful.
The ministry, however, said the Department of Supply Management and Protection of Consumers Interest has been working on the technicalities over the restriction of specified energy drinks, though the ministry’s new move is only the revised provision of the order issued on November 2, 2009.
“The government can impose such restriction on any product, if it is found to pose a health risk to the public,” according to the ministry.
But trade experts claim that the move could send a negative message about Nepal in the international market. The government can adopt alternative measures to reduce the volume of import rather than imposing a direct restriction, according to the trade experts.
Likewise, Mishra also warned that the importer could seek legal recourse, if the government moves forward with the import ban.
Red Bull sells their products in 160 countries including in Nepal. Nepal imports the drink from India and Thailand.

PM Oli claims miracle, fails to walk the talk

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli – addressing the nation marking the completion of his one year in office as the prime minister – claimed that his government has worked wonders in a year.
In his televised speech from the power seat of in Singha Durbar, Prime Minister Oli also boasted about his various achievements, dubbing the completion of one year in office as the ‘foundation year’ or 'zero year'.
While issuing a white paper on economy – by cherry picking data – a year ago finance minister Dr Yub Raj Khatiwada hinted at marking this year as a 'zero year,' apart from his budget that has also claimed to make the current fiscal year a 'zero year' for the prosperous Nepal.
But the key indicators – including Balance of Payment (BoP) and trade deficit – of the economy seems not following the governments 'Happy Nepali Prosperous Nepal' slogan. The BoP remained at a deficit of Rs.63.68 billion in six months compared to a deficit of Rs.6.66 billion in the same period of last fiscal year due to deficit in current account – that registered a deficit of Rs 152.16 billion by mid-January. "Such deficit stood at Rs 97.78 billion in the six months of last fiscal year," according to the central bank.
Likewise, trade deficit has also widened in the sixth month of the current fiscal year, compared to the same period of the last fiscal year. "In six months of 2018-19, merchandise exports increased by 10.3 per cent to Rs 45.41 billion – compared to an increase of 13.5 per cent a year ago, whereas, merchandise imports increased by 30.5 per cent to Rs 723.94 billion widening the total trade deficit further by 32.1 per cent to Rs 678.53 billion," the central bank data reveals. "The export-import ratio declined to 6.3 per cent in the six months from 7.4 per cent in the same period of the last fiscal year."
Similarly, the capital transfer and FDI inflow to Nepal amounted to Rs 6.89 billion and Rs 4.36 billion – making it to a total of Rs 11.25 billion  – respectively, which is more than half the last year's six months. "The capital transfer and FDI inflow witnessed Rs 10.07 billion and Rs 14.33 billion – making a total of Rs 24.40 billion – in the six months of the last fiscal year," the central bank data reveals.
Though, the PM painted rosy picture of economy and boosted about his one-year achievements, even the share market has been not supporting the government claim. The share market – a mirror of economy and investors' confidence – has been looking down from the very first day of the KP Oli government's formation. Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) dropped by 8.21 points today – on the day of Premier's address to the nation boosting his achievements today – to close the market at 1112.87 points, following the trend of continuous decline since one year, from th every first day of KP Oli government.  The market also lost confidence as the government failed to initiate reform in the capital market, though it has been upgraded to online trading.
However, the premier did not spell a single word on capital market in his 28-page one-year achievement address today.
The PM, however, claimed that the economy will grow by 7 per cent – in the current fiscal year – as according to the planning commission the growth rate stands at 6.9 per cent in the six months. But his government – in the budget speech for the current fiscal year – has targeted 8.5 per cent economic growth.
The premier also went on to say that the government has already constructed 490-km road, 417 suspension bridges and registered 499 industries in last one year, but he did not spell a word on the gross foreign exchange (forex) reserves that has also depleted to Rs 1058.20 billion as of mid-January 2019 from Rs 1102.59 billion as of mid-July 2018.
Yet another setback for the Oli government is that his government has been stashing huge amount in the central bank locker, being unable to spend on development works. The government treasury is bulging with Rs 178.75 billion – including Rs 49.2 billion in Local Levels' account – as of mid-January 2019.
Though, the private sector was very much hopeful of economic revolution due to historically powerful two-third majority government of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli promised a moon, the delivery and governance has seen no remarkable change. One year down the line, Oli government acted like his predecessors with nine months in the power.
In almost last 3 decades – Excluding former king Gyanendra – Nepal witnessed 25 prime ministers. However, the political stability in the last one year could not bring policy stability hitting the FDI inflow and also investment confidence of the private sector.
The Oli government could not walk its talk though it had made tall promises of improving people’s livelihood, sustainable development, prosperity and good governance has become. 

Trade deficit widens to Rs 570 billion

Trade deficit widened to Rs 569.50 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year due to a meager exports and increasing imports.
"Soaring imports of petroleum products, construction materials, machinery, automobiles, electric appliances and airplane parts pushed the trade deficit high up," according to Trade and Export Promotion Centre (TEPC).
These products accounted for 49 per cent of the country’s total import bill, the data further states, adding that the country's largest import –petroleum products – stood at Rs 88 billion. "The trade deficit increased by 35.5 per cent year-on-year and reached Rs 115.03 billion last month (mid-November to mid-December)."
The import to export ratio jumped to 16.2:1, which means Nepal spent Rs 16.2 on imports for every rupee it earned from exports.
According to the TEPC, the exports inched up by just 12.3 per cent to Rs 37.5 billion by the mid-December compared to a 33.8 per cent jump in imports, for which Nepal paid Rs 607 billion.
After petroleum products, imports of iron and steel products that valued Rs 73.23 billion stood the second largest imports, whereas imports of machinery worth Rs 48.36 billion stood third largest item on imports bill. "Nepal paid Rs 44.12 billion for automobiles and parts, and Rs 23.23 billion for electrical equipments' imports. "Imports of aircraft and parts soared more than fourfold to Rs 18.26 billion while imports of apparel and clothing accessories swelled more than threefold to Rs 16.46 billion."
Nepal's imports of agricultural goods increased by 14 per cent to Rs 91 billion, despite being the country an agriculture country, according to deputy executive director of the TEPC Suyash Khanal. "On the contrary, export earnings from farm products increased by 26 per cent to Rs 11.44 billion making Rs 80 billion deficit in agriculture products trade only."
"Demand for non-agricultural goods like woolen carpets, readymade garments, pashmina and yarn has been encouraging in recent days," executive director of the Trade and Export Promotion Centre Sarad Bickram Rana said, adding that export earnings from polyester and cotton – the country’s largest exports – increased by 20 per cent to Rs 3.82 billion. "They were followed by woollen carpets and readymade garments with export earnings of Rs 3.3 billion and Rs 3 billion, respectively."
Nepal exported some 59 per cent – of its total exports – to India, whereas imported some 64 per cent – of the total imports – from India, whereas Nepal imported 22 per cent from China.

Government 'still' claims 5.5 per cent growth possible, inflation target revised upward to 8.5 per cent

Despite low capital expenditure and less borrowing from the private sector followed by rising inflation, the government today claimed that it still could achieve the 5.5 per cent economic growth rate targeted by the fiscal policy and supported by monetary policy.

Better performance of the agriculture and service sectors would help achieve growth for the current fiscal year, said finance minister Ram Sharan Mahat at the Mid-Term Budgetary Review for the current fiscal year 2013-14, here today at the Finance Ministry.

"Positive political developments and its impact on investments apart from good agricultural output will also help achieve target economic growth rate," he said, adding that the industrial sector is, however, still poor. "Seven to eight per cent growth is possible only by increased investment and its efficiency."

The five-time finance minister Mahat also lamented the poor investment performance by both the government and private sectors.

"The failure to spend capital budget has swelled government treasury apart from low borrowing from the private sector that has flooded the banking system with excess liquidity,' he said, adding that it could, however, hit the growth prospects.

The government has Rs 65 billion in its treasury at the moment, while banks and financial institutions have excess liquidity of around Rs 50 billion.

As of February 27, the government has been able to spend only 19.72 per cent capital expenditure, according to Mahat. "However, there is still an additional demand of Rs 20.89 billion but in the unproductive sectors."

The minister also said that he would cut the budget of the projects failing to spend and divert the funds to better performers.

While, the capital budget has shown poor performance, the recurrent expenditure has seen increment. "There has been an additional demand of Rs 12.84 billion under the recurrent budget by security agencies, increased salaries of government employees and a rise in expenditure for foreign trips and the Constituent Assembly (CA) election, he added.

However, the government is planning to bring guideline to reduce recurrent expenditure.

Hoping that an early budget could help ensure the better capital expenditure, he said the government is planning to bring the budget before the fiscal year ends.

Inflation target revised upward

KATHMANDU: The mid-term budget review has revised inflation upward to 8.5 per cent from eight per cent. A rise in money supply due to the second CA election and supply constraints that led to an increase in food prices pushed the inflation to double digit in the fifth month. Mahat said that food prices jumped by 13 per cent despite increased production which suggested that there is a problem in the supply system due to middlemen. The review also suggested to address supply related problems to reduce inflation, apart from monetary instrument.

Trade deficit to continue to balloon
KATHMANDU: The review has also showed serious concern on ballooning trade deficit. Trade deficit stood at Rs 288.76 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year, whereas the ministry has estimated it to reach Rs 550 billion by the end of the current fiscal year. The total trade deficit stood at Rs 480 billion in the last fiscal year. The remittance cannot help float the economy, Mahat said, adding that there is an urgent need to enhance competitiveness of domestic products and increase exports.

Budget downsized to Rs 479billion
KATHMANDU: Through the mid-term review of the current fiscal year, the government has also downsized total budget for fiscal year 2013-14 to Rs 479 billion from Rs 517.24 billion. The government revised the budget due to low capital spending during the review period, said the finance minister.