Friday, December 29, 2023

PM assures of forming a powerful probe panel to resolve dispute between NEA and industries

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda', who last Thursday instructed the electricity authority to collect long-standing disputed electricity tariff dues from dedicated feeder and trunk line users, today assured the industrialists to resolve the issue by forming a powerful probe panel.

The Prime Minister is ready to form a powerful probe panel led by a judge of the Supreme Court," according to an industrialist, who went to meet the prime minister with 10-point memorandum.

The team led by senior vice president of Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) Anjan Shrestha, former FNCCI president Pashupati Muraraka, and Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) president Rajesh Agrawal, after handing over the 10-point memorandum, requested the Prime Minister to form a powerful probe panel led by a judge of the Supreme Court under the Commissions of Inquiry Act, 2026 (1969).

The industrialists, on the occasion, also clarified the premier that they have been paying their normal electricity tariff regularly to Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). But the NEA has been claiming that they should also pay premium tariff, which according to the industrialists, they have not used.

"If the NEA can produce the Time-of-Day (ToD) data we are also ready to pay the claimed due," they assured the Prime Minister, complaining of the power supply being disconnected without taking any initiatives for the resolution of disputes over NEA-claimed electricity tariff arrears of those with dedicated feeders and trunk lines.

The ToD meter keeps all the data that clarifies the usage of the electricity. "But the NEA has not been able to produce the ToD data and pressuring the industrialists to pay the dues, of premium bill, which they have not used."

The NEA executive director Kulman Ghising had, organising a press meet on Thursday, claimed that no exemptions could be granted, as directives were already issued to clear dues from dedicated feeder and trunk line users after disconnecting the electricity supply lines. "The affected consumers must either engage in the appeal process or settle their dues through installment payments," he said, adding that the NEA came into action from last Friday after the Prime Minister Dahal gave them instruction last Thursday to collect electricity tariff dues.

Ghising also blamed the industrialists for utilising electricity from dedicated feeders and trunk lines during the load-shedding times, and not paying the premium tariff, which according to him is unjust.

But the industrialists claimed that they have been paying electricity bill regularly. "There is a disagreement between the NEA and industries regarding the premium imposed on trunkline consumers," they said, adding that they have not paid the premium to the NEA. "We cannot afford to pay for electricity we have not consumed."

NEA has cut power supplies to nine industries that, it claims, have outstanding dues running over Rs 12 billion. But according the private sector, the NEA disconnected the lines without showing seriousness in addressing the dispute of payment of arrears of dedicated feeders and trunk lines, which has been in place for the past six years.

The issue of payment of electricity arrears of different industries using dedicated feeders and trunk lines surfaced six years ago.  The dispute has prolonged, as courts, parliamentary committees, Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) had directed the NEA to collect the arrears, but NEA has no enough evidence to prove that these industries have actually consumed the electricity, which was a luxury during the load-shedding period. 

But after the Prime Minister Dahal instructed the NEA to collect electricity tariff dues last Thursday, the NEA disconnected the electricity of four industries, including Reliance Mills, Jagadamba Steel, Arghakanchi Cement and Sarbottam Cement. On Sunday, the NEA disconnected five more industries electricity, making it to a total of 9 industries.

What is dedicated and trunk line

A dedicated feeder involves the supply of electricity through a separate line directly from a substation. This feeder system ensures continuous power supply even during load shedding by allowing electricity to be provided from an alternative line when one is subject to load shedding. On the other hand, a trunk line delivers electricity from the transmission line to the industry by placing a transformer inside the industry itself.


Tuesday, December 26, 2023

प्रधानमन्त्रीको सम्बोधनमा गलत तथ्य र तथ्यांकमा टेकेर उपलब्धिको चर्चा

 प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहालले सत्ताका दिव्य ३६५ दिनका आफ्ना उपलब्धि सुनाउँदै गर्दा तथ्य तथा तथ्यांकमा खेलबाड गरेका छन् । प्रधानमन्त्रीको सचिवालयको कमजोरी हो वा निर्देशन नै अतिसयोक्तिपूर्ण प्रचार हो, थाहा छैन । तर, प्रधानमन्त्रीले गलत तथ्यांक प्रस्तुत गर्दा उनीप्रतिको र उनको सरकारप्रतिको विश्वासमा झन् कमी आउने स्पष्ट छ ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीले प्रस्तुत गरेका तथ्यंकको फ्याक्टचेक गर्दा दाहालका धरै दाबी मनगडन्ते र भ्रामक पाइयो ।

साधारण सम्बोधनमा त गृहकार्य नगर्ने सरकारले नेपाली नागरिकका चुलिँदा महत्वाकांक्षा र आशा पूरा गर्ला भन्ने कुनै विश्वास नहुनु जायज हो । तथ्यांक तोडमरोड गरेर आफ्नो सफलता देखाउन बाध्य प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले नेपाललाई निकास दिन नसक्ने पनि एकपटक फेरि स्पष्ट भएको छ ।

कुनै पनि मुलुकमा पटक पटक सत्तामा पुग्ने सौभाग्य थोरै भाग्यमानीले मात्र पाएका छन् । प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको पनि यो तेस्रो पटकको सत्तारोहणको वार्षिकी हो ।

विश्व बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार विश्वको एकतिहाइ गरिब दक्षिण एसियामा छन् । विश्वको एक तिहाइ गरिब बस्ने दक्षिण एसियामा नै यस्ता पटके प्रधानमन्त्री भएको धेरै पाइन्छ । गरिबी र पटके प्रधानमन्त्रीको सम्बन्धको यो जालोबाट मुक्त हुन नेपालमा पनि शीर्षस्थ नेतालाई ससम्मान बिदा गरेर युवाको हातमा सत्ता पुग्नु पर्छ भन्ने मान्यता बढ्नुमा पनि सरकारका कार्यशैली तथा मिथ्यांक जस्ता कारण छन् ।

तर नेपालमा तिनै ब्यक्ति पटक पटक सत्तामा पुग्छन् र नयाँ काम गर्ने वाचा गर्छन् । सरकार आफ्ना गलत कार्यशैलीका कारण बुढो बाँदरले नयाँ ट्रिक सिक्देन भन्ने उखान जस्तै नयाँ नेतृत्व नआइकन नेपालीमा अब कुनै आशाको संचार होला भन्ने आशा छैन भन्ने भाष्य स्थापित गर्दैछ ।

मंगलबार प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले आफ्नो सत्तारोहणको वर्षदिन पूरा भएको अवसरमा गरेका सार्वजनिक सम्बोधनमा पनि सरकारको सफलता देखाउने भावनात्मक उत्तेजनामा आएर दाहालले भ्रामक तथ्यांक प्रस्तुत गरेका छन् ।

प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको सम्बोधनका केहि मिथ्यांक

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी १: एक वर्षअघि जम्मा तीन महिनाको आयात धान्‍नसक्‍ने सामर्थ्यसहित दिवालिया बन्ने त्रासमा बाँचेको देशसँग अहिले विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति इतिहासकै उच्च छ। यही असारदेखिको चार महिनाकै अवधिमा यस्तो सञ्चिति १५७ अर्ब रूपैयाँले बढेको छ।

तथ्य: नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा कुल विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ खर्ब ९२ अर्ब ५६ करोड रुपैयाँ थियो । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिबाट १० महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ८.७ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने अवस्था थियो ।

तर, यस वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १६ खर्ब ९६ अर्ब रुपैयाँ पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चार महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा हाल सञ्चित विदेशी मुद्रा १३.६ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ११.३ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने देखिन्छ ।

यथार्थमा प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी भ्रामक ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी २: विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति इतिहासकै उच्च ।

तथ्य: राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७७ पुसमा विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति १२ अर्ब ७७ करोड ५८ लाख अमेरिकी डलर पुगेको थियो । तर, २०८० कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ अर्ब ७५ करोड अमेरिकी डलर छ ।

राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत वर्ष (२०७९) वैशाखमा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिती ९ अर्ब २७ करोड अमेरिकी डलरमा झरेको थियो । जसले ६.१८ महिनाको वस्तु र सेवाको आयात धान्न पुग्थ्यो ।

यथार्थमा विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिती इतिहासकै उच्च भएको भन्ने प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी पनि भ्रामक

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी ३: सधैँ घाटामा रहने सार्वजनिक संस्थान नाफामा जान थालेका छन् । नेपाल वायुसेवा निगमको तिर्नुपर्ने दायित्व कम हुँदै गएको छ। नेपाल आयल निगम र नेपाल विद्युत् प्राधिकरण नाफामा गएका छन् ।

तथ्य: सार्वजनिक संस्थानको वार्षिक स्थिति समीक्षा २०८० का अनुसार सरकारको लगानी रहेका विभिन्न सार्वजनिक संस्थानहरुको वित्तीय अवस्थामा अझै सुधार हुन सकेको छैन । आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-०७९ मा संचालनमा रहेका ४२ वटा संस्थानमध्ये २५ नाफा र १७ वटा संस्थानहरु घाटामा रहेको छन् । त्यसैगरी दुई संस्थाको कारोबार शून्य रहेको छ। उक्त वर्ष जनकपुर चुरोट कारखाना बन्द र विद्युत उत्पादन कम्पनी, राष्ट्रिय प्रसारण ग्रीड कम्पनीको व्यवसाय शुरुवाती अवस्थामा नै रहेको छ ।

नेपाल वायुसेवा निगमलाई ग्राउन्ड हयान्डलिंग गर्न नदिने हो भने घाटामा जान्छ । निगमको प्राथमिक काम भनेको जहाज उडाउनु हो तर निगमले जहाज मात्र उडाउने र ग्राउन्ड हयान्डलिंग गर्न नपाउने हो भने तत्काल आगामी महिनादेखि तलब पनि खान सक्ने सामथ्र्य हुने छैन र जनताले तिरको करबाट सरकारले तलब खुवाउनु पर्दछ । हालेका दिनमा निगमका कर्मचारीको आन्दोलनको चुरो कुरो पनि त्यहि हो ।

पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ नेपालमा उत्पादन तथा प्रसोधन समेत नहुने भएका कारण नेपाल आयल निगमको नाफा वा घाटामा नेपाल सरकारको प्रत्यक्ष कुनै हात हुँदैन । अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय बजारमा भाउ बढे नेपालमा पनि बढ्ने अनि घटे घट्ने भनेर नै नेपालमा स्वचालित मूल्य प्रणाली लागु गरेको निगमको नाफामा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले जश लिन खोज्नु राजनीति मात्रै हो ।

सार्वजनिक संस्थानको वार्षिक स्थिति समीक्षा–२०८० अनुसार आर्थिक वर्ष २०७८-७९मा नेपाल विद्युत् प्राधिकरणले आव २०७८-७९ मा १३ अर्ब ३७ करोड खुद नाफा आर्जन गरेको थियो । सरकारकै उक्त प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार सरकारले लगानी गरेका सार्वजनिक संस्थानहरू सरकारलाई बोझ बन्दै गएका छन्। करिब सवा ६ खर्ब लगानी रहेका सार्वजनिक संस्थाले एक वर्षको अवधिमा १ अर्ब ५४ करोड २० लाख रूपैयाँ मात्र खुद नाफा आर्जन गरेका छन्। यो नाफा लगानीका आधारमा निकै कम हो।

साथै, पछिल्लो चार वर्षदेखि संस्थानहरूको नाफा निरन्तर घट्दै गएको छ। आर्थिक वर्ष २०७७-७८ मा २६ अर्ब ३६ करोड ९२ लाख खुद नाफा आर्जन गरेका संस्थानले आव २०७८-७९ मा १ अर्ब ५४ करोड २० लाख रूपैयाँ मात्र खुद नाफा गरेका छन्।

यसरी हेर्दा एक वर्षमै नाफा २४ अर्ब ८२ करोड ७२ लाख रूपैयाँ घटेको छ। अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्ष भन्दा गत आर्थिक वर्षमा खुद नाफा ९४.१५ प्रतिशतले घटेको छ। आव २०७८-७९ मा सञ्चित नाफा ५२ अर्ब ४० करोड ७८ लाख रूपैयाँ छ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी भ्रामक ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी ३: ‘लगभग सिंगो देशमा विद्युत पहुँच पुगेको’ छ ।

तथ्य: राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगको दिगो विकास लक्ष्यको संशोधित सूचक प्रतिवेदनका अनुसार सन् २०२२ मा ८५.७ प्रतिशतको घरमा मात्रै विद्युत् पहुँच पुगेको छ । दिगो विकास लक्ष्यमा सन् २०३० मा मात्रै ९९ प्रतिशतको घरमा विद्युत् पहुँच पुग्ने लक्ष्य समेटिएको छ । दाहाल सरकारले नै जेठ १५ गते ल्याएको आव २०८०-८१को बजेट बक्तव्यमा पनि असार मसान्तसम्ममा ९५ प्रतिशत नागरिकको घरमा राष्ट्रिय विद्युत प्रणालीबाट विद्युतमा पहुँच पुर्याउने अनुमान रहेको थियो ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी भ्रामक ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी ४: यस वर्ष उपभोक्ता मूल्य वृद्धिदर गत वर्षभन्दा २.७ प्रतिशत बिन्दुले कम भएको छ। … मौद्रिक नीतिमा गरिएका सुधारका कारण बैंकको आधार ब्याजदर एकल अङ्कमा पुगेको छ भने ऋणको ब्याजदर पनि घटेको छ । यसबाट उत्पादन लागत घटेर उपभोक्ता मूल्यमा समेत सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्ने निश्चित छ ।

तथ्य: बजार भाउको वृद्धिदरमात्र घटेको हो, बजार भाउ सस्तो भएको होइन । त्यसमाथि आयात पनि घटेको, आन्तरिक उत्वादन पनि नबढेको परिबेशमा कसरी के कारणले असोजमा ७.५० रहेको वार्षिक बिन्दुगत आधारमा उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकाङ्कमा आधारित मुद्रास्फीति कात्तिकमा ५.३८ प्रतिशतमा झर्यो । साथै, बजारमा उपभोक्ताले किन अनुभुत गर्न पाएनन् ? यसमा सरकार, अर्थ मन्त्रालय र राष्ट्र बैंक जवाफदेही हुन पर्दछ ।

यसका साथै, संसारभर केन्द्रीय बैंकहरुले मूल्यवृद्धि नियन्त्रण गर्ने औजारका रुपमा ब्याजदरलाई प्रयोग गर्ने गर्छन् । अर्थशास्त्रमा ब्याजदर बढाएपछि ऋणको लागत महँगो हुन्छ, त्यसले अर्थतन्त्रमा माग कम हुन्छ र मूल्यवृद्धि नियन्त्रण हुन्छ भन्ने मान्यता छ। नेपालमा पनि गत आर्थिक वर्षमा ब्यामजदर बढाउँदा राष्ट्र बैंकले यहि तर्क दिएको थियो । तर, नेपालमा ब्याजदर बढ्दा पनि तात्विकरुपमा मूल्यवृद्धि घट्न सकेन भने झन् ब्याजदर घटाउँदा कसरी मूल्यवृद्धि दर कम भएको हो, प्रधानमन्त्रीको अर्थशास्त्रले नै बताउला ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको दाबी शंकास्पद ।

यस बाहेक पनि धेरै तथ्यगत तथा तथ्यांकीय त्रुटीको जगमा गरिएको आफ्नो एक वर्षे कार्यकालको उपलब्धिको वर्णनमा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले पुन समीक्षा नै गर्नु पर्ने देखिन्छ ।

Monday, December 25, 2023

प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहालको सत्तारोहणको एक वर्षः नेपालीले के पाए ?

 २०७९ साल पुस ११ गते प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल ‘प्रचण्ड’ले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाएर शपथ ग्रहण गरे । अर्थतन्त्र चाहिँ ‘दौरा न सौरा खल्ती’को अवस्थामा थियो ।

दाहाल सिंहदरबार छिर्दै गर्दा मुलुकको अर्थतन्त्रमा समस्या थिए । अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकहरु आशालाग्दा थिएनन् । अर्थतन्त्रमा शिथिलताको कारण बजारमा उत्साह थिएन । कारोबारको चक्र बिथोलिएका कारण बजारमा उकुसमुकुस थियो । कोभिड-१९ महामारीका कारण सुस्ताएको अर्थतन्त्रमा रुस-युक्रेन युद्धले थप जटिलता ल्याएको थियो, सार्वजनिक वित्त अनि आन्तरिक तथा बाह्य क्षेत्र दुबै चापमा थिए । आम्दानी बढेको थिएन तर महँगीले आकाश छोएको थियो ।

सरकारको दाबी छ : पछिल्लो एक वर्षमा अर्थतन्त्रका केही सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ ।

तर, २०७२ सालपछि लगातार बजेटको आकार बढ्ने अनि खर्च गर्न नसक्ने दीर्घरोगी संयन्त्रमा सुधार नआएका कारण प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले राजनीतिक जस लिने गरी सुधार भने गरेको देखिन्न । किनकि, धेरै सुधार सरकारको नीतिगत हस्तक्षेपका कारण नभई समयक्रममा आफैँ आएका हुन्, जुन टिकाउ हुन्छ भन्ने पनि छैन ।

सरकारको योगदानबिना सूचकमा आंशिक सुधार, बजारमा बढ्दो निराशा

अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको तुलनामा केही वित्तीय र मौद्रिक क्षेत्र सूचकमा सुधार आएको छ । सरकार गठन भएलगत्तै २०७९ पुस ११ गते बसेको मन्त्रिपरिषद् बैठकले अर्थतन्त्र सुधारका लागि विभिन्न नीतिगत, प्रक्रियागत र संस्थागत सुधारका काम अघि बढाउने गरी निर्णय गरेको थियो ।

सरकारले गर्ने यस्ता कर्मकाण्डी निर्णयले नेपालमा कुनै सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्न छोडेको धेरै भइसक्यो, बरु उल्टो नकारात्मक असर परेका प्रशस्त उदाहरण छन् ।

तर, यसपटक अलि फरक भयो, सरकारले सुधारका प्रयासका कारण केही आर्थिक सूचक सकारात्मक भएको दाबी गर्दैगर्दा अर्थतन्त्रको बाह्य क्षेत्रमा साँच्चिकै केही सुधार देखिएको छ ।

हुन त बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधारको दिगोपनामा प्रशस्त आशंका छ तर पनि रेमिट्यान्स लगातार बढेको तथा आयात घटेका कारण विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिमा सुधार आएको तथ्यांकले देखाउँछ । साथै, पर्यटक आगमनमा पनि उल्लेख्य बढोत्तरी देखिएका कारण केही टिकाउ हुन्छ कि भन्ने आशा गर्न सकिन्छ ।

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा कुल विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १२ खर्ब ९२ अर्ब ५६ करोड रुपैयाँ थियो । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चितिबाट १० महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ८.७ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने अवस्था थियो ।

तर, यस वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति १६ खर्ब ९६ अर्ब रुपैयाँ पुगेको राष्ट्र बैंकले जनाएको छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको चार महिनाको आयातलाई आधार मान्दा हाल सञ्चित विदेशी मुद्रा १३.६ महिनाको वस्तु आयात र ११.३ महिनाको वस्तु तथा सेवा आयात धान्न सक्ने देखिन्छ ।

हाल बढेको विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति नेपाली उत्पादन निर्यातबाट आएको आम्दानीका कारण भएको भए अर्थतन्त्र बलियो हुँदैछ भन्न सकिन्थ्यो तर त्यसो होइन । नेपाली उत्पादनको निर्यात घट्दो छ ।

आइतबार भन्सार विभागद्वारा प्रकाशित तथ्यांकअनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको मंसिरसम्ममा नेपालले जम्मा ६३ अर्ब २० करोड ७४ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको छ । तर, गत आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा भने नेपालले ६७ अर्ब ३० करोड ४५ लाख रुपैयाँको वस्तु निर्यात गरेको थियो ।

मुलुकमा व्यावसायिक वातावरण बनाउन सरकार असफल भएक कारण उत्पादन नभएको मात्र होइन, रोजगारी पनि सिर्जना भएन । अनि उत्पादनशील युवा बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गए । बैदेसिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवाले रेमिट्यान्स पठाएका कारण रेमिट्यान्स आयमा वृद्धि भयो । त्यसैले रेमिट्यान्स बढेको र त्यसैका कारण बाह्य क्षेत्रमा आएको सुधार सरकारको नीतिले होइन, कुनीतिले हो ।

सरकारले रेमिट्यान्स आयको वृद्धिमा र त्यसैका कारण तत्काल अर्थतन्त्रमा परेका सकारात्मक प्रभावलाई आफ्नो ठूलो उपलब्धि मान्नु केटाकेटी पारा हो । अझ तथ्यांकमा नै हेर्ने हो भने त अहिले आइरहेको रेमिट्यान्सभन्दा धेरै आउनुपर्ने हो, यसमा पनि सरकार चुकेको छ । सरकारकै अव्यवस्थाका कारण हुन्डी बढेको छ । देशबाट पुँजी पलायन भइरहेको छ ।

राष्ट्र बैंकका अनुसार चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिकसम्ममा ४ खर्ब ७७ अर्ब ९६ करोड रुपैयाँ रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको छ । जुन प्रतिमहिना औसतमा सवा खर्ब रुपैयाँको हाराहारी हो । आफ्ना मानव संशाधन बेचेर विश्वमा कुनै पनि मुलुक धनी भएको छैन, नेपाल पनि हुँदैन । आफ्ना युवालाई रोजगारी दिन नसक्ने राज्यले राष्ट्रियता पनि जोगाउन सक्दैन ।

तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री भएको एक वर्षमा पनि दाहालले स्वदेशमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न केही प्रयास गरेको देखिन्न । दाहालमात्र नभएर, नेपाली राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका शीर्षस्थ नेतामा नेपालमा रोजगारी सिर्जना गर्न कुनै हुटहुटी छैन । जसका कारण युवामा चरम निराशा छ र उनीहरु धमाधम विदेश जाँदै छन् । खराब नेतृत्वका कारण संघीय गणतन्त्र बदनाम भइरहेको छ ।

एक वर्ष पुगेको अवसरमा प्रधानमन्त्रीले सिंहदरबारभित्रै एउटा सर्भे पो गर्ने हो कि, कति जना वहालवाला तथा पूर्व उच्च कर्मचारीका सन्तान नेपालमा छन् ? कसैको व्यक्तिगत स्वतन्त्रतामा प्रतिबन्ध त लाउन सकिन्न तर यसबाट प्रधानमन्त्रीलाई कस्ता नीतिनिर्माताबाट सरकार चलाइरहेको छु भन्ने थाहा लाग्न सक्छ ।

नेपालमा रेमिट्यान्स पठाउने युवाको वर्ग नै फरक छ । जुन वर्गको उत्थानका लागि प्रचण्डले नेपाललाई एक दशक लामो द्वन्द्वमा होमे, त्यही वर्ग नेपालमा गरिखान नपाएर वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका कारण प्रतिमहिना सवा खर्ब रेमिट्यान्स नेपाल भित्रिएको हो । अनि अर्थतन्त्रका सूचकमा सुधार आएको हो, सरकारको नीतिका कारणले होइन, हुँदै होइन । किनकि सरकारको नीतिका कारण कुन वर्गको उत्थान भइरहेको छ, जगजाहेर नै छ ।

हाल चालु खाता अनि शोधनान्तर स्थिति पनि बचतमा देखिएका छन् । राष्ट्र बैंककै तथ्यांकअनुसार कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा चालु खाता ९६ अर्ब ३८ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ । जुन चालु खाता २०७९ मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा ३७ अर्ब ९१ करोड रुपैयाँले घाटामा थियो । साथै, चालु आवको पहिलो चौमासिकसम्ममा शोधनान्तर स्थिति १ खर्ब ४७ अर्ब ११ करोड रुपैयाँले बचतमा छ ।

यी तथ्यांक देखाएर जस लिनुभन्दा सरकारले वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएका युवालाई धन्यवाद भन्नु पर्ने हुन्छ ।

किनकि वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा जाने ती ८० प्रतिशत युवा ऋण काडेर विदेशिने गरेको प्रवासी नेपाल समन्वय समिति र सेन्टर फर द स्टडी अफ लेबर एन्ड मोबिलिटी, सोसल साइन्सले गरेको ‘रिटर्न, विक रिइन्टिग्रेसन र रिमाइग्रेसन’ शीर्षकमा कामदारहरूको अवस्थाबारे गरेको अध्ययन प्रतिवेदनले जनाउँछ ।

‘ऋण लिएकामध्ये लगभग ५० प्रतिशतले ऋण तिर्न बाँकी रहेको देखिन्छ,’ प्रतिवेदन भन्छ । अझ वैदेशिक रोजगारीबाट फर्केर आएका आप्रवासी श्रमिकहरु बचत नभएका कारण थप आर्थिक जोखिममा रहेको पनि अध्ययनले देखाएको छ ।

सरकारले किन र कसरी जस लिन मिल्छ, जब उनीहरुमध्ये ८८ प्रतिशतले विदेशबाट कमाएको पैसाबाटै ऋण फिर्ता गर्ने गरेको पनि प्रतिवेदनमा उल्लेख छ । रेमिट्यान्स पठाएर देशको अर्थतन्त्र चलाइदिने उनीहरुको लागि यो सरकार होइन । जुन दिन रोजगारदाता देशमा समस्या आउँछ, त्यसै दिन उनीहरु फर्कन बाध्य हुन्छन् ।

सरकारले केही गर्न सक्दैन, प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले पनि केही गर्न सक्दैनन् । रुस पुगेर मृत्युवरण गर्न बाध्य नेपाली युवाका लागि यो सरकार होइन, यो देश पनि आफ्नो होइन । एक वर्षमात्र होइन, अर्को १० वर्ष शासन गरे पनि सरकार नेपाली युवाका लागि होइन भन्ने भाष्य सरकारले नै बनाएको हो ।

तेस्रोपल्ट प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दै गर्दा दाहाललाई चेत आएको हुनुपर्थ्यो कसको लागि प्रधानमन्त्री बन्दैछु भनेर तर यस्तो देखिएन ।

एक वर्षमा पर्यटक आगमनमा राम्रो सुधार देखिएको छ । सन् २०२३ को ११ महिनामा करिब ९ लाख ५४ हजार पर्यटक नेपाल आएका छन् । पर्यटक आय तथा पर्यटकको बसाइ लम्बाउन नसके पनि पछिल्लो वर्षमा बढेको पर्यटक आगमनले केही रोजगारी भने सिर्जना भएको छ । त्यो पनि कुन दिन फेरि घट्न बेर छैन । किनकि नेपालमा आउने पर्यटक नेपालको योजना तथा लगानीका कारण आएका होइनन्, उनीहरुकै योजनामा आएका हुन् ।

गएको एक वर्षमा तथ्यांकमा गज्जब सुधार भएको तर बजारमा अनुभव नगरिएको एउटा क्षेत्र भने महँगी हो ।

राष्ट्र बैंकको तथ्यांकअनुसार गत वर्षको तुलनामा मूल्यवृद्धि घटेको छ । २०७९ मंसिर समान्तसम्ममा उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांकमा आधारित मुद्रास्फीति ७.३८ प्रतिशत थियो । तर चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कात्तिक मसान्तसम्ममा मुद्रास्फीति ५.३८ प्रतिशत छ ।

तर, बजार भाउ भने बढेको बढ्यै, बढेको बढ्यै छ ।

यसको अर्थ बजार भाउको वृद्धिदरमात्र घटेको हो, बजार भाउ सस्तो भएको होइन । प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालमात्र नभएर अधिकांश राजनीतिक दलका नेता तथा उच्चपदस्थ कर्मचारी आफैं बजारमा किनमेल गर्न गएको कतै देखिन्न, सुनिन्न, त्यसैले थाहा हुने कुरा पनि भएन । नागरिकका पीडा सुनिदिनेभन्दा पनि कतिपटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुने भन्ने कीर्तिमान राख्ने लहड भएपछि नारायणहिटी र सिंहदरबारमा कुनै फरक नहुनु स्वाभाविक हो ।

तर, फरक छः तेस्रो पल्ट शपथ ग्रहण गर्दा प्रचण्डले दौरा सुरुवाल लगाए । एक वर्षदेखि उनी सार्वजनिक समारोहमा दौरा सुरुवालमै देखिन्छन् ।

आजकल प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल अर्को एक धक्का दिने मुडमा छन् ।

शुक्रबार र आइतबार एउटा धक्का त दिइसके । प्रधानमन्त्रीले बिहीबार बक्यौता रकम नतिर्ने उद्योगको लाइन काट्न निर्देशन दिएलगत्तै शुक्रबार नेपाल विद्युत प्राधिकरणले जगदम्बा स्टिल्स, रिलायन्स स्पिनिङ मिल्स, घोराही सिमेन्ट र अर्घाखाँची सिमेन्टको बिजुली काट्यो । आइतबार थप ५ उद्योगको लाइन काटेको छ ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीले एक वर्षमा कर्मचारीतन्त्रलाई सयौं निर्देशन दिए होलान् । सयकडा एक यस्ता निर्देशन कार्यान्वयन पनि भए होलान्। तर, उद्योग नै धराशयी बनाउने निर्देशन एकैदिनमा कार्यान्वयनमा आयो, राज्य पूरै ब्ल्याकमेलरका रुपमा प्रस्तुत भयो।

स्वदेशी लगानीकर्तालाई ब्ल्याकमेल गरेको देखेपछि विदेशी लगानीकर्ता पक्कै नेपाल आउन चाहने छैनन् । तर, सरकार आउँदो वैशाख ९ र १० गते काठमाडौँमा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय लगानी सम्मेलनको तयारी गर्दैछ ।

नेपालमा लगानीको वातावरण कठिन हुँदैछ भनेर मलेसियन लगानीकर्ता आजियटा फर्कन चाहेको भर्खरै हो । नेपाल सरकारको दोहनकारी नीतिले लगानीकर्तामा चरम निराशा छ । बितेको एक वर्षमा लगानीको वातावरण बिथोल्न प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको सरकार र सरकारी संयन्त्रले भयंकर मेहनत गरेको छ ।

नेपालका उद्योग बन्द गरेर बेरोजगार बढाउने अनि खाडि पठाएर रेमिटयान्स भित्र्याउने । युवाले पठाएको रेमिटयान्सले सरकारले तलब खाने र राजनीतिक दलका कार्यकर्ता पाल्ने । योभन्दा खास्सा आर्थिक क्रान्ती के हुन्छ ?

यो नै दाहाल सरकारको प्रमुख उपलब्धि हो ।

एक दशकको द्वन्द्वले नेपाल आर्थिक विकासमा ५० वर्ष पछाडि पर्‍यो, अब एक वर्षको उपलब्धिले झन् राणाकालमा नै पुर्‍याउने हो । यस्तै विषम परिस्थितिमा नै १०४ वर्षे एकतन्त्रीय जहानियाँ राणाकाल सुरु भएको हुनपर्छ ।

सायद प्रधानमन्त्रीले भनेको अन्तिम धक्का यही होला, देश बनाउने ।

राज्य नै दोहनकारी भएपछि कसरी मुलुकमा औद्योगिक वातावरण बन्छ, उद्यमशीलताको प्रवर्धन हुन्छ अनि रोजगारी सिर्जना हुन्छ, यति बुझ्न जंगल जानु पर्दैन । यो कमन सेन्स हो ।

तर, अंग्रेजीमा भनिन्छ नि कमन सेन्स इज भेरी अनकमन । नेपालमा राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका नेतृत्वमा कमन सेन्स भएको भए नेपाली युवा रुसको फौजमा वा खाडी अनि मलेसिया जानु पर्दैनथ्यो । पूर्णरुपमा रेमिट्यान्समा आधारित सुधारिएको सूचक देखाएर फुइँ लाउने सरकारसँग नेपाल विकासको कुनै दृष्टिकोण, कुनै योजना छैन भन्ने एक वर्षले सिद्ध गरिसकेको छ ।

बितेका एक वर्षमा कतिवटा उद्योग खुले, कति रोजगारी सिर्जना भयो, नेपालीको आय कति बढ्यो, कति नेपालीले छाना र नाना पाए, त्यसको तथ्यांक हेरौं न ।

अनि जाजरकोटमा चिसोले कति जनाको ज्यान गयो, त्यो पनि एउटा सूचक होला नि होइन र ? २१औं शताब्दीमा जाडो र चिसोले नागरिक मर्ने देशको सूचकमा सुधारको के अर्थ ?


बढ्दो ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण

पछिल्ला वर्षहरुमा सबैभन्दा बढी चर्चामा आएको विषय हो, सार्वजनिक ऋण । आजको मितिमा सरकारले ऋण तिर्न पनि ऋण नै लिनुपर्ने बाध्यता सिर्जना भएको छ । हुन त यसमा प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालको धेरै दोष छैन । तर, उनले पनि बितेका एक वर्षमा सार्वजनिक ऋण थपे । किनकि राजश्वले सरकारी खर्च धान्न छोडिसक्यो । सरकारको एक वर्षको उपलब्धिमा यसको पनि त मूल्यांकन होला नी ।

सार्वजनिक ऋण व्यवस्थापन कार्यालयका अनुसार गत असार मसान्तसम्ममा २२ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३५ करोड २४ लाख रुपैयाँ बराबर रहेको सार्वजनिक ऋण कात्तिक मसान्तसम्म पुग्दा २३ खर्ब ५७ अर्ब ६ करोड रुपैयाँ नाघेको छ । त्यसैले सरकारले पुँजीगत खर्चभन्दा ऋण तिर्न बढी खर्च गर्ने बाध्यता आइसकेको छ ।

यतिमात्रै होइन, विगत एक वर्षको उपलब्धि ।

महालेखा नियन्त्रक कार्यालयको तथ्यांकअनुसार २०८० मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारको आम्दानीभन्दा खर्च बढी छ ।

मंसिर मसान्तसम्ममा सरकारले ४ खर्ब ५२ अर्ब ९९ करोड ५७ लाख रुपैयाँ बजेट खर्च गरेको छ तर आम्दानी भने खर्चभन्दा ६९ अर्ब ७ करोड १५ लाख रुपैयाँ कम छ । सरकारले चालु आवका लागि १७ खर्ब ५१ अर्ब ३१ करोड २१ लाख रुपैयाँको बजेट ल्याएको थियो भने कुल १४ खर्ब ७२ अर्ब ४८ करोड ४७ लाख रुपैयाँबराबर राजस्व उठाउने लक्ष्य थियो ।


महाँकालदेखि मानसरोवरसम्मः आर्थिक कूटनीतिमाथि धार्मिक कूटनीति हावी

कुनै समय चीनका नेता माओत्सेतुंगको नाम तथा दर्शनबाट प्रभावित तथा प्रगतिशील राजनीतिको प्रचण्डपथ नै कोरेको दाबी गर्ने नेकपा माओवादी केन्द्रका अध्यक्ष प्रचण्डले प्रधानमन्त्री भएपछि पहिलो विदेश भ्रमण भारतबाटै गर्ने रहर गत वर्ष पूरा गरे।धेरैले उनलाई दक्षिणतिर ढल्किएको पनि भने। तर, उत्तरबाट दक्षिणतिरको यो ३६० डिग्रीको फन्को रातारात होइन, थिएन ।

नेपालको सत्ताको सिँढी नै दक्षिणतिर छ त उनको के दोष !

उनको तेस्रो पटकको सत्तारोहणबाट नेपाली नागरिकले के पाए, त्यो भिन्नै कुरा भो । तेस्रो पटक प्रधानमन्त्री हुँदा पनि उनीसँग देश र जनतालाई दिनेभन्दा लिने नै कुरा बढी होलान् । यो भाष्य गलत होस् भन्ने कामना त गर्न सकिन्छ तर यथार्थ यथार्थ नै हुन्छ।

नेपालको आर्थिक विकासको एउटा प्रमुख साझेदार हो भारत । नेपालको वैदेशिक व्यापारमा भारतको हिस्सा ठूलोमात्र होइन, अर्थतन्त्रलाई तत्काल नकारात्मक वा सकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्न सक्ने छिमेकी पनि हो ।

त्यसैले हरेकपल्ट नेपालका प्रधानमन्त्रीको भारत भ्रमणबाट नेपालीले ठूलै उपलब्धि हासिल गर्ने आशा राख्छन् । यसपटक आफुलाई सुध्रिसकेको दाबी गरेका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालसँग पनि नेपालीको ठूलै आशा थियो । तर, दिल्लीको औपचारिक मेजमानी खाएपछि २०८० जेठ १९ गते उज्जैन पुगेर उनी महाँकालेश्वरमा गेरुवा खास्टोमा आरती गर्दै गरेका देखिए ।

नेपाल र भारतबीचको द्विदेशीय व्यापार अभिवृद्धि गर्नेलगायतका थुप्रै विषयभन्दा उनका लागि उज्जैनको महाँकालेश्वरमा आरती महत्वपूर्ण भयो । दुई छिमेकी देशबीच आर्थिक कूटनीतिभन्दा धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा रुची लिनु प्रचण्डको बाध्यता हुनसक्छ।

नेपाल र भारतलाई आज आर्थिक विकासमा जोड्न सकेमात्र दुबै मुलुकको फाइदा छ । तर, त्यसो गर्दा दाहाललाई के फाइदा ?

भारतको औपचारिक भ्रमणबाट व्यापार, पारवहन, लगानी प्रवर्धन, ऊर्जा व्यापार तथा क्रस बोर्डर ट्रान्समिसन लाइन, सिँचाइ, बाढी तथा डुबान नियन्त्रण, कृषिलगायतका क्षेत्रमा केही सहमति भएका थिए । तर, उनको गेरुवा खास्टोले ती केही भएका उपलब्धि पनि छोपिए ।

यसरी माओको दर्शन र प्रगतिशील राजनीति एकाएक धार्मिक राजनीतिमा क्रान्तिकारी छलाङ मार्न पुग्यो ।

किनकि उनको धार्मिक कूटनीति दक्षिणको छिमेकीमा मात्र सीमित रहेन । अमेरिकाबाट सोझै २०८० असोज ६ गते चीन उत्रिएका प्रधानमन्त्री दाहाल भोलिपल्ट औपचारिक कार्यक्रम सकेपछि नेपाल फर्कन सक्थे तर एक साता घुमफिर गरेर मानसरोवर यात्रा गर्न भ्याए ।

अस्थिरताका पर्याय मानिएका प्रचण्ड छिमेकी मुलुकसँगको आर्थिक कूटनीति बलियो बनाउन छाडेर धार्मिक कूटनीतिमा ओर्लिए । जसकारण प्रधानमन्त्रीको भ्रमणमा नेपालले भारतबाट तथा चीनबाट लिन सक्ने जति आर्थिक फाइदा लिन सकेन।

त्यसैले बितेको एक वर्षमा नेपालीले देखेको ‘परिवर्तन’ भनेको झल्याकझुलुक गेरुवा खास्टोबाहेक प्रधानमन्त्रीको दौरा सुरुवाल मात्रै हो ।

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Developing countries pay record $443.5 billion on public debt

Amid the biggest surge in global interest rates in four decades, developing countries spent a record $443.5 billion to service their external public and publicly guaranteed debt in 2022, the World Bank’s latest International Debt Report shows.

The increase in costs shifted scarce resources away from critical needs such as health, education, and the environment. "Debt-service payments—which include principal and interest—increased by five per cent over the previous year for all developing countries," the report reads, adding that the 75 countries eligible to borrow from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) — which supports the poorest countries—paid a record $88.9 billion in debt-servicing costs in 2022. "Over the past decade, interest payments by these countries have quadrupled, to an all-time high of $23.6 billion in 2022."

"Overall debt-servicing costs for the 24 poorest countries are expected to balloon in 2023 and 2024—by as much as 39 per cent," the report finds.

“Record debt levels and high interest rates have set many countries on a path to crisis,” said the World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice president Indermit Gill. "Every quarter that interest rates stay high results in more developing countries becoming distressed—and facing the difficult choice of servicing their public debts or investing in public health, education, and infrastructure," he said, adding that the situation warrants quick and coordinated action by debtor governments, private and official creditors, and multilateral financial institutions—more transparency, better debt sustainability tools, and swifter restructuring arrangements. "The alternative is another lost decade."

Surging interest rates have intensified debt vulnerabilities in all developing countries. In the past three years alone, there have been 18 sovereign defaults in 10 developing countries—greater than the number recorded in all of the previous two decades. Today, about 60 per cent of low-income countries are at high risk of debt distress or already in it.

Interest payments consume an increasingly large share of low-income countries’ export, the report finds. More than a third of their external debt, moreover, involves variable interest rates that could rise suddenly. Many of these countries face an additional burden: the accumulated principal, interest, and fees they incurred for the privilege of debt-service suspension under the G-20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The stronger US dollar is adding to their difficulties, making it even more expensive for countries to make payments. Under the circumstances, a further rise in interest rates or a sharp drop in export earnings could push them over the edge.

As debt-servicing costs have climbed, new financing options for developing countries have dwindled. In 2022, new external loan commitments to public and publicly guaranteed entities in these countries dropped by 23 per cent to $371 billion—the lowest level in a decade. Private creditors largely abstained from developing countries, receiving $185 billion more in principal repayments than they disbursed in loans.

That marked the first time since 2015 that private creditors have received more funds than they put into developing countries. New bonds issued by all developing countries in international markets dropped by more than half from 2021 to 2022, and issuances by low-income countries fell by more than three-quarters. New bond issuance by IDA-eligible countries fell by more than three-quarters to US$3.1 billion.

With financing from private creditors drying up, the World Bank and other multilateral development banks stepped in to help close the gap. Multilateral creditors provided $115 billion in new low-cost financing for developing countries in 2022, nearly half of which came from the World Bank. Through IDA, the World Bank provided $16.9 billion more in new financing for these countries than it received in principal repayments—nearly three times the comparable number a decade ago. In addition, the World Bank disbursed $6.1 billion in grants to these countries, three times the amount in 2012.

The latest International Debt Report marks the publication’s 50th anniversary. It highlights key insights from the World Bank’s International Debt Statistics database—the most comprehensive and transparent source of external debt data of developing countries. The new edition also features an expanded analytical framework, one that goes beyond the latest data to examine near-term outlook for debt as well. It also includes an overview of the Bank’s debt-related activities and an analysis of emerging trends in debt management and transparency.

“Knowing what a country owes and to whom is essential for better debt management and sustainability,” said Haishan Fu, Chief Statistician of the World Bank and Director of the World Bank’s Development Data Group. “The first step in avoiding a crisis is having a clear picture of the challenge. And when problems arise, clear data can guide debt restructuring efforts to get a country back on track towards economic stability and growth. Debt transparency is the key to sustainable public borrowing and accountable, rules-based lending practices which are so vital to ending poverty on a livable planet.”

The report notes that IDA-eligible countries have spent the last decade adding to their debt at a pace that exceeds their economic growth—a red flag for their prospects in the coming years. In 2022, the combined external debt stock of IDA-eligible countries hit a record $1.1 trillion—more than double the 2012 level. From 2012 through 2022, IDA-eligible countries increased their external debt by 134 per cent, outstripping the 53 per cent increase they achieved in their gross national income (GNI).

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

World Bank and ADB join forces for sustainable development of Nepal’s hydropower sector

The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced collaboration to strengthen Nepal’s hydropower sector specifically in the context of the proposed Upper Arun and Dudh Koshi hydropower projects.

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) stipulating cooperation between the two institutions for an initial period of five years was signed today on the sidelines of COP28 by World Bank vice president for South Asia Martin Raiser and ADB vice president for Sectors and Themes Fatima Yasmin.

"The full potential of Nepal’s enormous hydropower resources cannot be realised without close partnership between the Nepali government, development partners and the private sector," World Bank vice president for South Asia Martin Raiser said, adding that with the MoU, the ADB and the World Bank are laying the foundations for closer collaboration in financing and policy advice in Nepal’s hydropower sector, with the aim to support the country’s green, sustainable and inclusive development for decades to come.

"This agreement between ADB and the World Bank is a significant step in strengthening Nepal's energy security amid rising demands from population growth and urbanisation," ADB vice president for Sectors and Themes Fatima Yasmin said, adding that it also fosters power trade with neighbouring countries, promoting regional cooperation, economic growth, and green and inclusive development. "ADB is committed to promoting clean energy solutions that align with climate action goals. Our commitment goes beyond generating power; it's also about creating positive impacts on communities, livelihoods, and the environment and contributing to a more sustainable future for all."

The MoU specifically targets three critical areas for collaboration: enhancing country-level collaboration, strengthening co-financing, and boosting joint action on climate change. The pilot approach between the two multilateral development banks provides opportunities for collaboration in knowledge and experience sharing to ensure common understanding of the hydropower sector in Nepal, joint analytical studies, and consultation in support of the development of the hydropower sector.

Under the MoU, the World Bank and Asian Development Bank will also work together on strengthening the institutional capacity of Nepal’s executing and implementing agencies in the development of large hydropower projects, and the preparation and financing of projects in the energy sector. 

This is the first MoU signed between ADB and the World Bank following the joint statement on strengthening collaboration for greater impact issued by the heads of multilateral development banks at the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings in Marrakech in October, 2023.

Tuesday, December 5, 2023

President calls for global cooperation in combating climate change impact on Himalayan region

President Ram Chandra Paudel emphasised that nations affected by climate change, including Nepal, should stand to benefit significantly from financial and technical assistance aimed at mitigating its impact.

Speaking at the 40th anniversary ceremony of International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) today at Lalitpur, he underscored that the repercussions of climate change, environmental degradation, and biodiversity loss extend beyond national borders, affecting the entire global community. "The current global crisis arising from human-induced climate change, biodiversity loss, and environmental pollution," he said, highlighting the heightened impact of climate change in mountainous regions like the Hindu Kush Himalayas, attributing it to the sensitive terrain and socio-economic vulnerabilities.

Despite Nepal's negligible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, the President pointed out the disproportionate impact of climate change on the country. He also recalled urging global attention to this issue during the visit of the United Nations Secretary-General, stressing the urgency of addressing climate change impacts on nations with minimal carbon emissions.

"Minimizing the effects of climate change to improve the lives of people in this region is a significant challenge," he said, "Events such as the melting snow, glacier bursts, mountain landslides, and floods in the south due to climate change inflict severe damage on the economy, environmental systems, and humanity."

highlighting Nepal's commitment to collaborating with neighbouring countries and international partners on climate change, environmental protection, disaster risk reduction, biodiversity conservation, and livelihood issues he reiterated ongoing support for the institutional development of ICIMOD and sustainable development in the entire Hindu Kush mountain region.

The President also suggested that ICIMOD should actively engage with the nearly two billion people in its influence area and coastal countries, encouraging collaboration to enhance environmental services from the Hindu Kush Himalayan region.

The ICIMOD marks four decades of catalysing sustainable development in the complex terrain of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region.

Under the theme 'Moving Mountains 2030', the 40th anniversary event highlighted ICIMOD’s journey and its commitment to shaping the future of the HKH region.

The 40th-anniversary agenda included a series of key moments, showcasing ICIMOD’s achievements and the enduring partnerships that have fuelled its success, a press note issued by the ICIMOD reads. "Importantly, this moment marks an opportunity to consolidate urgent actions for the future in a context of the triple planetary crisis of climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss."

The anniversary event featured a range of activities, including the release of a commemorative book highlighting four decades of ICIMOD’s contributions, launched by the Right Honourable Mr Ramchandra Paudel, and the inauguration of a new annex building. 

During the event, the winners of the Dr Andreas Schild Memorial Mountain Prize were also announced. The Mountain Prize sets out to amplify the voices of those on the front lines of the climate crisis in the HKH, recognising outstanding individuals and groups actively engaged in on-the-ground sustainable solutions, the press note reads. "This year’s winners were Sathi Eco Innovation India Pvt Limited and Rupani Foundation Pakistan (RFP)."

Reflecting on this milestone, Director General of ICIMOD Dr Pema Gyamtsho, said, “ICIMOD's 40-year legacy is a testament to our resilience and the collaborative efforts of our partners. We’ve addressed diverse challenges, enabling sustainable development in the HKH. As we move forward, our ambition remains high, guided by the lessons of the past.” 

Also attending the event was Bhutan’s advisor for Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock and Governor of the Royal Monetary Authority, Dasho Penjore, and high-level representatives from other member countries of ICIMOD – Bangladesh, China, India, , Nepal and Pakistan. Attendees also included ICIMOD’s board and support group members from the region and beyond, as well as the diplomatic corps based in Kathmandu.  

Speakers at the event included prominent personalities from ICIMOD’s past, including appointed Regent of ICIMOD in 1983 Peter Gueller, initial ICIMOD chair from Switzerland Dr Ruedi Hoeger and long-serving former chairperson of ICIMOD’s Programme Advisory Committee and former Prime Minister of the Royal Government of Bhutan Lyonpo Dr Kinzang Dorji, vice chair of National Planning Commission (NPC) and Board Member of Nepal and Chair of ICIMOD Support Group Dr Min Bahadur Shrestha, and ambassador of the Kingdom of Norway to Nepal Torun Dramdal.

ICIMOD, on the occasion, expressed gratitude to its partners and supporters, acknowledging the integral role they’ve played in working towards the organisation's mission.

Following the signing of the agreement at the UNESCO headquarters in Paris on 30 September 1981 by Nepal government and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), ICIMOD was established and inaugurated in December 1983 with its headquarters in Nepal’s capital. As per the ICIMOD Act 2040 (1983), ICIMOD was mandated to carry out study, research and other necessary functions in order to develop the mountain area of Hindu Kush Himalayan regions in an integrated manner. 

ICIMOD reaffirmed its dedication and commitment to further strengthen its role in supporting its regional member countries to address the current and emerging challenges that the HKH region is facing from climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss as a neutral convenor and facilitator for sharing information, knowledge and sustainable policies and practices. 

The 40th-anniversary event served as a moment to celebrate past successes, present achievements, and chart a course for a more robust pathway towards a greener, more resilient and inclusive development of the HKH region.

Monday, December 4, 2023

Six Nepalis die fighting for Russian Army in Ukraine, one captive

The Foreign Ministry today officially confirmed the deaths of six Nepalis, while serving for the Russian Army that is currently fighting a war after invading Ukraine in February 2022.

Issuing a press note, the ministry clarified that these deaths were confirmed despite Nepal banning to join its nationals in foreign armies, except for those recruited into the national armies of friendly countries under traditional agreements. Nepalis traditionally join the armies of India and the UK.

The ministry had issued a press note also on August 1 stressing not to provide permission for recruitment in any foreign army apart from those in a few countries as per traditional agreements.

The ministry has also confirmed a Nepali, who has been fighting for Russia, has been captive in Ukrain.

The Nepalis, who lost their lives in Ukraine are identified as Sandeep Thapalia of Gorkha, Rupak Kari of Kapilvastu, Dewan Rai of Kaski, Pritam Karki of Syangja, Raj Kumar Roka of Ilam, and Ganga Raj Moktan of Ilam. 

The ministry has also formally requested the Russian government to expedite the repatriation of the deceased Nepalis' bodies and provide compensation to their grieving families.

The ministry has also requested the Russian government to refrain from recruiting Nepalis into the Russian army.

Likewise, the government has also requested Russia to repatriate any Nepalis, who may have recently joined the Russian army. "Diplomatic efforts are underway to secure the return of Bibek Khatri, a Nepali citizen currently held captive in Ukraine after joining the Russian army," the press note reads, confirming the report that one Nepali is in the captivity of Ukraine.

There are unofficial reports that many Nepalis are being lured to joint the Russian Army, the press note added appealing Nepali citizens, excluding those engaged in government work, recipients of Russian government scholarships, and professionals in business, to travel to Russia only through the Consular Service Department under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tripureshwar.

Likewise, the ministry has urged the Nepalis to refrain from joining the armies of war-torn countries, based on false information or the temptation of monetary gains. "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs requests all concerned not to join the army of war-torn countries on the basis of false information or temptation," it added.

According to the ministry, the deceased are:

Sandeep Thapaliya (Gorkha)

Rupak Karki (Banganga-1, Kapilvastu)

Duban Rai (Kaski)

Pitam Karki (Putali Bazaar-5, Syangja)

Raj Kumar Roka (Melung-6, Dolakha)

Ganga Raj Moktan (Ilam-5, Ilam)

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

सधैं अनावश्यक किचलो झिकेर रमिता देखाउने गैर आवासीय नेपाली संघ खारेज पो गर्ने कि !

सन् २००९ मा ६ घन्टाका लागि जर्मनीका रामप्रताप थापा गैर आवासीय नेपाली संघका (एनआरएनए) अध्यक्ष भए तर देवमान हिराचनले स्वीकार नगरेर चुनावमा नै जाने जिद्दी गरेपछि थापाले छोडिदिए, अनि हिराचन सर्बसम्मत अध्यक्ष भए । त्यतिबेलासम्म एनआरएनएमा चुनाव गर्ने प्रचलन सुरु भैसकेको थिएन । अझ भनौं एनआरएन संस्थागत नभएर एउटा अभियानकै रुपमा थियो । संगठित हुँदै थियो ।

यसबीच लन्डनको थेम्सदेखि न्यूयोर्कको हड्सन नदीमा धेरै पानी बगिसकेको छ । भन्न त बागमतिमा पनि धेरै पानी बगिसकेको छ भन्छन् । तर, बागमतिमा पानीमात्र बग्दैन । साप्ताहिक बागमति सफाइका नारा पनि सुनिन अब छोडिसके । किनकि, नेपालमा सरसफाइ गर्नु धेरै कठिन छ, चाहे नदी होस् वा संघसंस्था ।

वितेका वर्षहरुमा एनआरएनए नेपालमा दर्ता भयो, वालुवाटारमा आफ्नै भवन पनि बनायो, तर संस्थागत हुन सकेन । किनकि, नेतृत्वमा आउन होडबाजी बढ्यो । हरेक चुनाव विवादित हुँदै गए । केहि विवाद बाहिर आए, धेरै आएनन् किनकि गैर आवासीय नेपालीले नेपालमा गरेको लगानी पनि बढ्दै थियो, नेपालभित्र उनीहरुप्रतिको धारणा सकारात्मक थियो । सरकारले एनआरएनका मागहरु पनि पूरा गर्दै गयो ।

नेपालका अन्य सबै संघ संस्था झैं अग्रजहरुका त्याग तथा नियमित संघर्षले संस्थागत भएको एनआरएनए संस्था त बन्न सकेन नै, अभियान पनि आफ्नो मूल बाटोबाट भड्किन थाल्यो । एक पटकका नेपाली सधैंको नेपाली भन्ने नारा जस्तै विदेशका ज्ञान, सीप, प्रविधि तथा पुँजी नेपाल भित्र्याउलान् भनेका गैर आवासीय नेपालीहरु आफ्नै ‘जेनेटिक’ संक्रमणमा परे।

संसारभर छरिएर रहेका एनआरएनएबाट नेपाली समाजले उनीहरुले त्यहाँ सिकेको सीप, संस्कार र देखेको विकासको ज्ञान मातृभूमिमा बाँडेर फेरि काममै फर्केलान् भन्ने हो । तर, उनीहरुले झनै झैझगडा, संकुचित मानसिकता र असभ्यता सिकाएपछि त्यस्तो संस्थाको औचित्यमाथि जनस्तरबाटै प्रश्न उठ्न थालेको छ । जुन स्वाभाविक पनि हो ।

आजका मितिमा एनआरएनए उद्देश्यविहीन नै भएको हो कि झैं पनि देखिन्छ । एनआरएनएमा आफ्नो जीवनको लामो कालखण्ड अर्पण गरेका जुगल भुर्तेल पनि अब एनआरएनए उद्देश्यविहीन भएको स्वीकार्छन् ।

‘जुन उद्देश्यका लागि एनआरएनए संगठन बनाइएको थियो, नेपाल सरकारले कानूनीरुपमा दिन मिल्ने ती करिब करिब सबै पूरा गर्दिसकेका कारण अब एनआरएनएले आफनो उद्देश्यमा पुन:विचार गर्नु आवश्यक छ,’ भुर्तेल भन्छन् ।

नेपाली समाजको मनोविज्ञान किन यति धेरै आत्मपीडक छ, त्यो त समाजशास्त्री र मनोविद्ले बताउलान् । तर, पढेलेखेका विदेशमा बसेका, नेपाल बाहेकका देशको समाज सुनेका मात्र होइन, देखे, भोगेका नेपालीहरु पनि आत्मपीडक हुनु नेपालको विकासमा उनीहरुबाट गरिएको आड भरोसाको पनि अवसान हो ।

संस्था उद्देश्यविहीन भएकै कारण सन् २००९ मा जर्मनीका रामप्रताप थापा एनआरएनएका ६ घन्टे अध्यक्ष भएको त्यहि सोल्टी होटेलमा करिब एक दशक आधापछि सन् २०२३ मा एनआरएनएको नेतृत्वको लागि डा बद्री केसी, आरके शर्मा अनि महेश श्रेष्ठबीच त्रिपक्षीय चुनाव भयो ।

पहिलो पटक भएको भनिएको अनलाइन भोटिङमा केसीले चुनाव जिते । तर, अनलाइन भोटिङमा धाँधली भएको भन्दै आरके शर्मा र महेश श्रेष्ठले समानान्तर समिति बनाए । त्यतिमात्र होइन गैरआवासीय नेपाली संघको घर झगडा बढेर हात हालाहालसम्म पुग्यो ।

संघको कार्यालयमा निर्वाचित अध्यक्ष केसीले युवासंघलाई बोलाएर कब्जा गर्न खोजेको भन्दै आरके शर्मालगायतले विरोध गरेपछि दुईपक्षीय विवादका क्रममा हात हालाहाल भयो । संघको कार्यालयभित्र भएको कुटपिटको घटनामा संलग्न रहेको आरोपमा प्रहरीले उदयपुर घर भएका युवा संघका कार्यकर्ता दीपेन्द्र तामाङलाई गिरफ्तार पनि गर्यो ।

दशौं विश्व सम्मेलनदेखि नै विश्वभरका गैर आवासीय नेपालीको विश्वास गुमाएको एनआरएनएले ११औंमा आइपुग्दा एनआरएनए हुँ भन्न पनि लाज लाग्ने स्थिति सिर्जना भएको धेरै प्रवासी नेपालीको गुनासो छ । तर, आठौं विश्व सम्मेलनमा क्रममा होटल हयातमा भएको सम्मेलनमा होटल प्रशासनले गैर आवासीय नेपालीलाई गरेको ब्यवहार देख्ने तथा भोग्नेहरु विकृति अघि नै सुरु भएर लगातार झाँगिंदै आएको बताउँछन् ।

अब एनआरएनएले आफ्नो उद्देश्यमा पुन:विचार गर्नु आवश्यक भै सकेको छ । किनकि २० वर्षेपछि एउटा संस्थाले स्वाभाविकरुपमा परिवर्तन खोज्छ नै । त्यसमाथि विश्वभर फैलिएको ठूलो संगठनको समयानुकूल संरचनागत तथा सिद्धान्तगतरुपमा परिवर्तन हुन सकेन भने, त्यो स्वत: अप्रासांगिक हुँदै जान्छ ।

पार्श्वभागमा रहेका राजनीतिक दल खुल्लम खुल्ला एनआरएनएको कार्यसमितिमाथि हाबी हुने अवस्था आउनुमा एनआरएनएमा पदका आकांक्षीको महत्वाकांक्षा नै हो । पहिला राजनीतिक दलमात्र हाबी थिए, अब विभिन्न स्वार्थी समूह पनि हाबी हुन थाले, भुर्तेल पनि गुनासो गर्छन् ।

जसरी पनि अध्यक्ष हुनै पर्ने के छ त्यस्तो आकर्षण संघमा भन्दै एनआरएनए विघटनको संघारमा पुगेको धेरै एनआरएनहरुको भनाइ सामाजिक सञ्जालमा छरपष्ट छन् । आफ्नै घरभित्र आफैं सुरिक्षत नहुने संस्था बनाएको भन्दै एनआरएनहरुको आलोचना भए, केसी र शर्मा दुबैलाई संस्थाको शाख गुमेकोमा चिन्ता देखिन्न पनि भन्न भ्याए, एनआरएनएका विश्वभर फैलिएका सदस्य र गैर सदस्यहरुले ।

संघमा राजनीति यति हाबी भयो कि एनआरएनएमा अघिल्लो कार्यकाल कुल आचार्य, बद्री केसी र रबिना थापा तीन जनाले पालैपालो अध्यक्षता गरे ।

ठयाक्कै नैपाली राजनीतिक दलको गलत परम्परा सिको गरेर बनेका तीनै अध्यक्षले पनि संस्थालाई एक बनाएर राख्न सकेनन् । किनकि त्यहि समय पूर्वअध्यक्ष शेष घलेको समर्थनमा विनोद कुँवर अध्यक्ष भएको अर्को एनआरएनए आफनो आधिकारिकता दाबी गर्दै अदालत गएको छ, मुद्दा अझै विचाराधीन नै छ, फैसला भएको छैन ।

एनआरएनएको ११औं विश्व सम्मेलन उद्घाटन सत्रमा गत असोज ३० गते होटेल सोल्टीमा संस्थापक अध्यक्ष डा उपेन्द्र महतोले संघमा तीन अध्यक्ष भएपनि झगडा नभएको भन्दै लाज जोगाउने प्रयत्न त गरे । उनको आशय राजनीतिक दलका नेताजस्तो एनआरएनएका तीन अध्यक्षबिच झगडा नभएको भन्ने थियो ।

तर, संस्थापक अध्यक्ष डा उपेन्द्र महतोको बोली भुईमा खसेको तीनदिनभित्रै कात्तिक २ गते एनआरएनबीच होटेल सोल्टीमा भाँडभैलो भयो । मतदानपछि नतिजा प्रकाशनका प्रकृयाले सुरु गरेको विवादले एनआरएनए भन्ने संस्थाको औचित्य तथा यसको स्थापनकालदेखि हालसम्मका नेतृत्वमात्र नभएर सम्पूर्ण प्रवासी नेपालीको अन्तर्राष्ट्रियरुपमा नै बदनाम भयो ।

नेपालको आर्थिक सामाजिक विकासमा योगदान दिन संगठन नै चहिन्न । किनकि सामुहिकरुपमा वा एक्ला एक्लै प्रवासी नेपालीले नेपालमा लागनी गरिरहेका छन् । सरकारले लागनी गर्ने वातावरण बनाइदिँदा उनीहरुको पहिलो रोजाइ नेपालमा नै लगानी गर्ने रहन्छ ।

त्यसैले एकथरी गैर आवासीय नेपाली भन्छन्, एनआरएनए न त संस्थागत हुन सक्यो, न त अभियान नै रहन सक्ने भयो । संस्थागत किन हुन सकेन भन्दा ललितानिवासको विवादीत जग्गामा बनेको एनआरएनएको विशाल भवनमा बस्ने विशाल ह्रदय भएको नेतृत्व संघले पाउनै सकेन । अभियान किन हुन सकेन भन्दा यसले विश्वभर छरिएका गैर आवसीय नेपालीको प्रतिनीधित्व पनि गर्न सकेन । विश्वभर आफनो पेशा ब्यवसायमा प्रसिद्धि कमाएका तथा गर्विलो जीवन बाँचेका गैर आवासीय नेपालीलाई यसले आकर्षण गर्न सकेन ।

साथै, एनआरएनए ८० लाख नेपालीको साझा संस्था पनि बन्न सकेन, धाँधली गरेर चुनाव हराएको आरोप लागेपछि स्वघोषित अध्यक्ष आर के शर्मा भन्छन् । उनका अनुसार धाँधली भएको अनुसन्धान गरिरहेको नेपाल प्रहरीको केन्द्रीय अनुसन्धान ब्यूरो (सीआईबी)ले समेत चुनावको निष्पक्षतामा प्रश्न उठाएको छ ।

चुनावसम्बन्धी विवादमा बद्री केसीको नेतृत्वको संस्थापन समूहले धाँधली नभएको बरु आर के शर्मा तथा महेश्वर श्रेष्ठको पराजित समूहले अनावश्यक बखेडा मात्रै झिकेको जिकिर गर्दै आएको थियो । तर, शर्माले क्लिकमान्डुलाई भने, ‘सीआईबीले झन्डै एक महिना लगाएर गरेको अनुसन्धानका क्रममा चुनाव निष्पक्ष नदेखिएकाले अनलाइन भोटिङ गराउने कम्पनी भेरो इन्गेजमेन्ट एन्ड भोटिङ सोलुसन’बाट मतदान गरेको स्थान निक्योल गर्नुपर्ने आवश्यकता औँल्याउँदै निर्वाचनमा स्पस्ट धाँधली भएको प्रस्ट पारेको छ ।’

चुनावको मत परिणाम सार्वजनिक भएसँगै होहल्ला र नाराबाजीका कारण तनावमय बनेको एनआरएनएको ११औँ महाधिवेशन स्थल होटेल सोल्टीमा महाधिवेशनका बाँकी प्रक्रिया समेत पूरा हुन सकेको थिएन । विवादकै बीच बद्री केसीले कात्तिक ४ गते उनकै पक्षधर निर्वाचन समितिका सदस्य टीबी कार्कीबाट अध्यक्ष पदको शपथ जवर्जस्ती लिएको आरोप शर्मा पक्षको छ ।

त्यसैले श्रेष्ठ र आफू मिलेर सोही दिन नयाँ कमिटी घोषणा गर्न बाध्य भएको पनि शर्माको दाबी छ ।

होटेल हिमालयमा महाधिवेशनको बाँकी प्रक्रिया पूरा गरेको दाबीसहित शर्माको नेतृत्वमा नयाँ कमिटी घोषणा गरेको असन्तुष्ट पक्षले सोही दिन प्रधानमन्त्री कार्यालय, परराष्ट्र मन्त्रालयका साथै सीआईबीमा निवेदन दिएको थियो ।

दोषीमाथि साइबर अपराधको मुद्दा चलाउनसमेत माग गरेर सीआईबीमा दिइएको निवेदनका आधारमा एक महिनासम्म अनुसन्धान गरेको सीआईबीको प्रतिवेदन प्रधानमन्त्री कार्यालयका साथै सम्बन्धति निकायमा पनि पुगेको शर्माको दाबी छ ।

उनले निर्वाचनमा योजनाबद्ध धाँधली गरिएका प्रमाणहरू पाइएपछि सोल्टी होटेलमा कात्तिक ३ मा तत्कालीन तीन जना अध्यक्षहरू कुल आचार्य, रबीना थापा तथा बद्री केसीले हस्ताक्षर गरी महाधिवेशनको सम्पूर्ण कार्यक्रम तत्कालका लागि स्थगित गर्ने र निर्वाचनमा भएका अनियमितताको दुई साताभित्र छानबनि गर्ने सहमति भएकोमा केसीले हतार हतार सपथ ग्रहण गरेको आरोप लगाए ।

तर, संस्थापन पक्षका अध्यक्ष बद्री केसीले निर्वाचनमा धाँधली नभएको दोहोर्‍याउँदै आरोप पुष्टी भएमा आफूले पदमा नबस्ने बताउँदै आएका छन् ।

‘यदि सीआईबीले केहि कैफियत भेट्टाएको भए, मुद्दामा चलाइहाल्थ्यो नि’, केसीले क्लिकमान्डुसँग भने, ‘चुनावमा आएका विवादमा सहमतीमा नै सबै निर्णय भएका छन् ।’

तर, विवादका बीच परराष्ट्र मन्त्रालयले संस्था नवीकरणलाई होल्डमा राखेको छ ।

केहि गैर आवासीय नेपालीको भनाइमा विश्वास गर्ने हो भने बालुवाटारको त्यो भवनमा बस्न पाए, सरकारसँग सहज पहुँच बनाउन सकिन्छ । सरकारसँगको पहुँचले भ्रष्टाचारजन्य कालो धनलाई सेतो बनाउन मद्दत गर्ने, हुन्डीको कारोबार गर्ने अनि मानव तस्करी गर्ने जस्ता नितान्त ब्यक्तिगत स्वार्थ पुरा गर्न पाइन्छ । त्यसैले यो सबै मारमुंग्री हो । जसमा भुर्तेलले भने झैं स्वार्थी समूह लागी पर्नु स्वाभाविक हो ।

तर, गैर आवासीय नेपाली संघको स्थापनाको कथा बेग्लै छ ।

सन् २००३ मा केहि उत्साही गैर आवासीय नेपालीले आफूले विदेशमा सिकेका सीप तथा प्रविधि नेपालमा हस्तान्तरण गर्ने तथा आफू जन्मेको मुलुकमा केहि लगानी पनि गर्ने असल उद्देश्यका साथ संघ गठन भएको हो । तर, स्थापनाको दुई दशकमा नै गैर आवासीय नेपाली संघ अप्रासांगिक तथा बदनाम हुँदा पूर्वअध्यक्षहरु दु:खी छन् । तर कोहि पनि मुख खोलेर केहि भन्न चाहन्नन् ।

‘वास्तवमा एनआरएनए यति ठूलो संस्था भयो एउटा अध्यक्षले संस्था धान्न नसक्ने भयो’, भुर्तेल भन्छन् ।

सन् २००३ को अक्टोबरदेखि हरेक दुई वर्षमा गैरआवासीय नेपालीहरूको सम्मेलन काठमाडौँमा हुँदै आएको छ । यसबीच संस्थाले १० जना अध्यक्ष पाइसकेको छ ।

सुरूका वर्षमा सम्मेलनलाई सम्पूर्ण प्रवासी नेपालीले मात्र होइन सरकारले पनि निकै महत्वका साथ हेर्ने यो संस्थाको सम्मेलनले एउटा पृथक तरंग ल्याउँथ्यो । प्रवासी नेपालीले समृद्ध नेपाल बनाउन कसरी हातेमालो गर्ने, नेपालमा लगानी गर्ने, प्रवासी नेपालीहरूको मातृभूमिसँगको सम्बन्धलाई प्रगाढ बनाउने तथा उनीहरूको नेपालसँगको नातालाई जोडिराख्ने एउटा कडी थियो, एनआरएनए ।

स्थापनाकाल सन् २००३ देखि तीन कार्यकालसम्म संस्थापक अध्यक्ष डा उपेन्द्र महतो नै अध्यक्ष रहे । त्यसपछि सन् २००९ देखि २०११को कार्यकालका लागी देबमान हिराचन अध्यक्ष भए भने २०११ देखि २०१३को कार्यकालका लागी जीवा लामिछाने अध्यक्ष भए ।

सन् २०१३देखि २०१५सम्मको कार्यकालका लागी अष्ट्रेलियाका शेष घले अध्यक्ष भए । सन् २०१५मा नेपालमा महाभूकम्प गएको अनि आफ्ना योजना अलपत्र परेको भन्दै उनले अर्को कार्यकाल पनि दोहोराएका कारण सन् २०१७देखि २०१९ को कार्यकालमा भवन भट्ट अध्यक्ष भए ।

त्यसपछि २०१९देखि २०२१ को कार्यकालका लागी कुमार पन्त अध्यक्ष भए । सन् २०२१ मा विवादका कारण तीन अध्यक्ष भए पनि कुँवरको नेतृत्वको अर्को संस्था पनि जन्मेका कारण एनआरएनए फुटतिर गयो । संघमा पूर्वअध्यक्ष हाबी भएको गुनासो गर्ने शेष घलेले नै कुँवरलाई अध्यक्ष बनाएर अर्को एनआरएनए बनाए ।

संसारभर छरिएर रहेका एनआरएनएबाट नेपाली समाजले उनीहरुले त्यहाँ सिकेको सीप, संस्कार र देखेको विकासको ज्ञान मातृभूमिमा बाँडेर फेरि काममै फर्केलान् भन्ने हो । तर, उनीहरुले झनै झैझगडा, संकुचित मानसिकता र असभ्यता सिकाएपछि त्यस्तो संस्थाको औचित्यमाथि जनस्तरबाटै प्रश्न उठ्न थालेको छ । जुन स्वाभाविक पनि हो ।

सन् २०२३ को चुनावपछि अब दुई दशक लामो इतिहास बोकेको संस्थाको औचित्य प्रमाणित गर्न पूर्व अध्यक्षहरुलाई पनि धौ-धौ परेको छ । पछिल्ला वर्षहरूमा संघको चुनावी माहोल र त्यसमा नेपाली राजनीतिक दलहरूमात्र नभएर विभिन्न स्वार्थी समूहको निरन्तर हस्तक्षेपका कारण पनि उनीहरू बोल्ने अवस्थामा छैनन् ।

विश्वभरका प्रवासी नेपालीको अगाडिमात्र नभएर नेपालभित्रै पनि अब कसरी मुख देखाउने भन्ने समस्यामा संघको नेतृत्व पुग्नु निश्चय नै राम्रो संकेत होइन ।

एउटा नेपाली विदेशमा बसुन्जेल त्यो देशको कानुन मान्दछ, हरेक पाइलामा सतर्क भएर हिँड्छ अझ चकलेट खाएपछि त्यसको खोल पनि बाटोमा नफ्यालिकन गोजीमै राख्छ । निश्चित स्थानमा मात्र फ्याल्दछ । तर, त्यहि नेपाली नेपाल आएपछि कानुन नमाने पनि हुन्छ, चकलेटको खोल मात्र होइन, भएभरका सबै फोहोर जहाँ मनलाग्यो त्यहि फयाल्छ ।

नेपाली समाजको मनोविज्ञान किन यति धेरै आत्मपीडक छ, त्यो त समाजशास्त्री र मनोविद्ले बताउलान् । तर, पढेलेखेका विदेशमा बसेका, नेपाल बाहेकका देशको समाज सुनेका मात्र होइन, देखे, भोगेका नेपालीहरु पनि आत्मपीडक हुनु नेपालको विकासमा उनीहरुबाट गरिएको आड भरोसाको पनि अवसान हो ।

त्रिभुवन विमानस्थलबाट बाहिर निस्कनासाथ विदेशमा सिकेका ज्ञान, सीप, बुद्धिविवेक अनि सामाजिक मर्यादा छोडेर पक्का ‘नेपालीबाबु’ बन्न के ले अभिप्रेरित गर्दछ, यस बारेमा पनि गहन अध्ययन आवश्यक भैसकेको छ । किनकि एनआरएनएले माने पनि नमाने पनि यो अब एउटा संगठनमात्र भएर रहन सक्दैन ।

यसका लागि भुर्तेलको विचारमा संगठनमा एउटा ठूलो ‘अपरेसन’ आवश्यक छ । कसले त्यसको नेतृत्व गर्दछ, त्यो त समयले बताउला ।

त्यतिमात्र होइन, अब एनआरएनएले आफ्नो उद्देश्यमा पुन:विचार गर्नु आवश्यक भै सकेको छ । किनकि २० वर्षेपछि एउटा संस्थाले स्वाभाविकरुपमा परिवर्तन खोज्छ नै । त्यसमाथि विश्वभर फैलिएको ठूलो संगठनको समयानुकूल संरचनागत तथा सिद्धान्तगतरुपमा परिवर्तन हुन सकेन भने, त्यो स्वत: अप्रासांगिक हुँदै जान्छ ।

त्यसैले एनआरएनए भित्रको अहिलेको संघर्षलाई सकारात्मकरुपमा लिएर अब विश्वभरका नयाँ सोच भएका दोस्रो पुस्ताका गैरआवासीय नेपालीलाई जोड्दै संस्थाको उद्देश्यमा पुन:विचार गर्ने यो उपयुक्त समय हो ।

नेपालको आर्थिक सामाजिक विकासमा योगदान दिन संगठन नै चहिन्न । किनकि सामुहिकरुपमा वा एक्ला एक्लै प्रवासी नेपालीले नेपालमा लागनी गरिरहेका छन् । सरकारले लागनी गर्ने वातावरण बनाइदिँदा उनीहरुको पहिलो रोजाइ नेपालमा नै लगानी गर्ने रहन्छ । तर, संस्था हुँदा विश्वभरका नेपालीहरुलाई बाँधिरहन सक्छ । 

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Government honours taxpayers, Vijaya Kumar Shah highest taxpayer

The government has honoured the largest taxpayers in 16 different categories, on the occasion of closing ceremony of Tax Week.

Finance Minister Dr Prakash Sharan Mahat today honoured the largest taxpayers from various sectors at the closing ceremony of the Tax Week organised on the occasion of the National Tax Day 2080, at the Inland Revenue Department (IRD). 

The liquor king Vijaya Kumar Shah -- founder and group chair of Jawalakhel Group of Industries (JGI) -- became the largest individual income taxpayer for second consecutive year, though it is the third time Shah has been honoured.

Nepal Telecommunications Company (Nepal Telecom) became the largest institutional income taxpayer for the fiscal year 2078-79 BS (2022-23), according to the IRD.

Though, the IRD has been celebrating the Tax Day on Mangsir 1 (November 17 this year) since last 12 years, the department has missed the day this year, and organised the felicitation programme on the last day of the Tax Week, today. The director general of IRD Dirgha Raj Mainali and revenue secretary Dr Ram Prasad Ghimire were absent at the programme, as both of them are out of country.

Likewise, Dabur Nepal, Asian Paints, OBC Foods and Feeds Company, Chhimek Microfinance Financial Institution and Global IME Bank are also honoured for being the largest taxpayers in different categories.

Life Insurance Company Nepal, Nobel Medical College, Manakamana Darshan and Bhatbhateni Super Market are also the largest taxpayers.

The government also honoured Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse) and Bhotekoshi Hydropower Company among the medium taxpayers category, ranging from Rs 500 million to Rs 1 billion.

The government also honoured IME Ltd and Surya Nepal was also honoured for paying the highest income tax, value added tax (VAT), excise duty and paying VAT of five years on time. 

The government also decided to provide a special identity card -- for a period of one year -- for the largest taxpayers, according to finance secretary Dr Krishna Hari Puskar Karna. "The process of distributing identity cards to the largest taxpayers will start today," he said, responding to the vice chair of Surya Nepal -- which has been recognised with two felicitations -- Rabi KC, who asked the government to let them have special pass to enter the Singh Durbar, the seat of power. 


The largest taxpayers for fiscal year 2022-23

Highest Income Tax Payer (Institutional): Nepal Telecom

Highest Income Tax Payer (Individual): Vijaya Kumar Shah (Jawalakhel Group of Industries)

Highest Inland Taxpayer: Surya Nepal

Highest VAT Payer: Surya Nepal

Export Trade: Dabur Nepal

Special Industries: Asian Paints

Agriculture and Livestock Industries: OCB Foods and Feeds

Cooperatives/Microfinance: Chhimek Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha

Banks/Finance institutions: Global IME Bank

Insurance: Life Insurance Corporation (Nepal)

Health/Educational Institutions: Nobel Medical College and Teaching Hospital

Tourism: Manakamana Darshan

Commodities Trade: Bhat-Bhateni Supermarket and Departmental Stores

Medium Scale Taxpayers: Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse)

Energy: Bhotekoshi Power Company 


The largest individual taxpayers

2012 -- Prithvi Bahadur Pandey

2013 -- Siddhartha SJB Rana

2014 -- Siddhartha SJB Rana

2015 -- Dr Upendra Devkota

2016 -- Siddhartha SJB Rana

2017 -- Siddhartha SJB Rana

2018 -- Siddhartha SJB Rana

2019 -- Siddhartha SJB Rana

2020 -- Vijaya Kumar Shah

2021 -- Siddhartha SJB Rana

2022 -- Vijaya Kumar Shah

2023 -- Vijaya Kumar Shah

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

World Bank and Global Fund for stronger collaboration to tackle the impact of climate change on health

The World Bank and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (the Global Fund) today signed a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) outlining how the two organisations will work together to strengthen health systems in countries of the Global South.

The goal is to support more efficient, effective, and sustainable financing to improve health outcomes in the face of climate change, according to a press note issued by the multilateral development partner.

Latest estimates show that more than half of the global population is not fully covered by essential health services and the climate crisis will only increase the demand for effective services, especially for the most vulnerable people.

“We cannot make adequate progress on public health while rising temperatures change the patterns of infectious diseases and breed pandemics,” World Bank president Ajay Banga said, adding that the only option is to respond aggressively, simultaneously, and comprehensively. "This partnership with the Global Fund is another step forward in our effort to recruit partners and build the coalition that is needed to deliver impact.”

Specifically, the two organisations will work together on climate and health priorities to reduce the burden of malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis (TB) through stronger health systems, including better access to primary healthcare services for the most vulnerable populations. The World Bank estimates that 132 million people may be forced into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change; one-third are the result of climate-related health risks disproportionately affecting the poorest and most vulnerable people.

“To stand a chance at achieving the targets of ending AIDS, TB and malaria, we must redouble our efforts to fight these diseases," executive director of the Global Fund Peter Sands said, adding that it includes investing to build health systems that can withstand the effects of climate change. “With malaria serving as an early tracer of the impact of climate on health, we need intensive interventions and strong partnerships to reverse the negative impact of climate change on health.”

Importantly, the two organisations will also advocate for increased financing for health and building country capacity for more efficient and sustainable financing across health systems, including for HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria. The goal is to make better use of scarce domestic and international health resources, including through better public finance management in countries. The two organisations will also use various financing modalities, including joint investments and blended finance, and collaborate on joint investments.

Another area of joint focus will be on strengthening the regional production and procurement of health supplies, including drugs and medical devices. Access to essential health supplies is necessary to ensure preparedness and strong and resilient health systems. The organisations will help localize health supply chains by supporting sustainable manufacturing in Africa and low- and middle-income countries.

Since 2017, the World Bank and the Global Fund have supported many countries by investing with blended finance transactions. For example, a loan buydown in India helped increase financing for TB care and prevention. In Indonesia, innovative buydown funding was linked to improved detection of TB cases, better treatment coverage, and reforms in provider payments to incentivize primary care. In Haiti, co-financing increased the use of primary healthcare services and strengthened disease surveillance. And in The Gambia, direct co-financing supported strengthened health systems for HIV/AIDS and TB.

The Global Fund is a worldwide partnership to defeat HIV, TB and malaria and ensure a healthier, safer, more equitable future for all.

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

निजी क्षेत्रसँग संवाद गर्न उद्योग वाणिज्य प्रवर्द्धन संवाद परिषदलाई पुनर्जीवित गर्ने प्रधानमन्त्रीको वाचा

प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल ‘प्रचण्ड’ले सरकारले आजैबाट अर्थतन्त्र सुधारका काम थाल्ने प्रतिबद्धता जनाएका छन् । सिंहदरबारमा राजनीतिक दल, निजी क्षेत्र र सरोकारवाला निकायसँग वर्तमान अर्थतन्त्रका समस्या समाधानबारे मंगलबारको छलफलपछि स्थायी संरचनामार्फत निजी क्षेत्रका समस्या सुन्ने र निराकरण गर्ने पनि उनले वाचा गरे ।

छलफलपछि प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले निजी क्षेत्रका गुनासा सम्बोधन गर्न सरकारको स्थायी संयन्त्रलाई परिचालन गरिने बताए । यसअघि उच्चस्तरीय संयन्त्र भन्दै आएका प्रधानमन्त्रीले स्थायी सरकारी संयन्त्रमार्फत नै निजी क्षेत्रका गुनासा सम्बोधन हुने बताएका हुन् ।

प्रधानमन्त्रीको अध्यक्षतामा रहेको उद्योग वाणिज्य प्रवर्द्धन संवाद परिषदलाई पुनर्जीवित गरि नियमित बैठक बस्ने र त्यसैलाई क्रियाशील बनाइ निजी क्षेत्रसँगको सम्बाद नियमित बनाउने उनको प्रतिबद्धता थियो ।

साथै, अर्थतन्त्रका समस्या समाधान, ब्याजदर घटाउन अध्ययन, ऋण तिर्न नसक्नेको हकमा पुन:संरचना र सहकारी तथा लघुवित्तका समस्या समाधानका लागि पहल गर्ने तथा सहकारीको नियमनका लागी नियामक निकाय बनाउने,पनि उनले प्रतिबद्धता जनाए ।

कर प्रणाली सुधार आयोगले दिएको सुझावका आधारमा निजी क्षेत्रसँग छलफल गरी कर प्रणालीमा सुधार गर्न पनि प्रधानमन्त्री तयार देखिएका छन् । राष्ट्रिय प्राथमिकताप्राप्त आयोजनाहरु बूढीगण्डकी, कर्णाली-चिसापानी, माथिल्लो अरुण, निजगढ विमानस्थल निर्माणको कार्यलाई तीव्रता दिनुका साथै क्रिकेट रंगशालालाई पनि गौरवको आयोजनाका रुपमा अघि बढाइने प्रधानमन्त्रीले बताएको छलफलमा सहभागिले बताए ।

निर्माण व्यवसायीको बक्यौता भुक्तानीका लागि पहल गर्ने, पुँजीगत खर्च बढाउन सबै मन्त्रालयले सक्रियतापूर्वक कार्य गर्ने, जनताको मनोबल बढाउने कार्य गर्ने र वित्तीय अनुशासन कायम राख्न पहल गर्नेजस्ता विषय प्रधानमन्त्रीले निजी क्षेत्रसमझ राखेका थिए ।

प्रदेशमा अधिकार हस्तान्तरण तथा प्रदेशलाई प्रभावकारी बनाउन ऐन नियम संशोधन कार्य अघि बढाउने पनि प्रधानमन्त्रीले जानकारी गराए । निजी क्षेत्रका सुझावलाई मध्यनजर गरी नीतिगत रुपमै खुकुलोपना अपनाउने प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले बाचा गरे ।

प्रमुख प्रतिपक्षी दल नेकपा एमाले अनुपस्थित भएको छलफलमा सहभागी अन्य राजनीतिक दलका नेताले सरकारलाई अर्थतन्त्रलाई चलायमान बनाउन निजी क्षेत्रको साथ लिन सुझाव दिए ।

सरकारले निजी क्षेत्रको उपसिथ्तीमा अर्थतन्त्रको बारेमा पहिलो पटक यति लामो अर्थात् चार घन्टा लामो छलफल गरेको भन्दै निजी क्षेत्र खुसि भए पनि सधैं झैं प्रतिबद्धतामात्र आएकोमा खुसि हुने कि नहुने द्धिबिधा रहेको पनि केहि सहभागीले बताए ।

तर, छलफलपछि सञ्चारकर्मीहरुसँगको कुराकानी गर्दै निजी क्षेत्रका अगुवाले निजी क्षेत्रसँग सरकारले थालेको अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान बनाउन छलफल सकारात्मक भएको बताए ।

नेपाल उद्योग वाणिज्य महासंघका अध्यक्ष चन्द्रप्रसाद ढकालले सरकारले अर्थतन्त्रलाई चलायमान बनाएर गति दिने विषयमा निजी क्षेत्रसहित सरकारका विभिन्न निकायहरुसँगको छलफलले अर्थतन्त्रमा सुधार ल्याउने संकेत देखिको बताए । नेपाल उद्योग वाणिज्य महासंघकै अग्ुवाइमा छलफल भएको भन्दै ढकालले सरकारका सबै निकायमा रहेको नीतिगत कमजोरीहरु समन्वयात्मक हिसावले समाधान गरी अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान बनाउने विषयमा सकारात्मक भएको जानकारी दिए ।

उनले सरकारसँगको छलफलले आगामी दिन आम नागरिक र निजी क्षेत्रको मनोबल बढाउने काम गर्ने विश्वास ब्यक्त गरे ।

अहिले अर्थतन्त्रमा देखिएको समस्याले आम नागरिकको मनोबल कमजोर भएको, साना तथा मझौला उद्योग र साना पसलहरु पलायन भएर गएको, अनि नेपालमा व्यवसाय गर्ने भन्दा पनि विदेश जाने योजना बढी बन्न लागेको अवस्था रोक्नु सरकारको प्रमुख दायित्व रहेको भन्दै ढकालले अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान बनाउन पुँजीगत खर्च वृद्धि र निर्माण सम्पन्न भएका आयोजनाको भुक्तानी दिनृे वाचा गर्नु सकारात्मक भएको बताए ।

यस्तै, राष्ट्र बैंकले कर्जाका सहुलियतको व्यवस्था गर्ने विषयमा सरकार सकारात्मक भएको तथा सरकारले बैंकको कर्जा लिएर कर्जाको किस्ता तिर्न अफ्ठ्यारो भएको भए सहुलियत दिने विश्वास रहेको पनि उनले जनाए ।

यसैगरि, सरकारले नीतिगत स्थिरता ल्याउनसके अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान हुने पनि निजी क्षेत्रको विचार छ । सरकारको अस्थिर आर्थिक नीतिको कारण अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान बन्न नसकेको भन्दै निजी क्षेत्रले अन्तर सरकारी समन्वय बढ्दा अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान हुने विश्वास ब्यक्त गरे ।

निजी क्षेत्रको आत्मविश्वास बढाउने कसरतमा सरकार, प्रधानमन्त्रीले प्रतिस्पर्धी बजार बनाउने आँट गर्लान् ?

लामो समयको रस्साकस्सीपछि सरकार अर्थतन्त्रको विषयमा संवेदनशील हुन थालेको देखिन्छ । एकातिर प्रतिपक्षी नेकपा एमाले सरकार गिराउन विवादास्पद व्यवसायि दुर्गा प्रसाईसँग भिड्ने दाउ खोजिरहेको छ भने अर्कोतिर आम जनतामा विशेषतः युवामा सरकारप्रति चरम निराशा छ ।

सरकारमा रहेका राजनीतिक दलको असफलतालाई जोडेर गणतन्त्र तथा संघीयता नै खराब भन्ने भाष्य बनाउन केहि दक्षिणपन्थी पनि दुर्गा प्रसाईंलाई अगाडि धकेल्दै छन् । विभिन्न कोणबाट आएका लगातारको दृष्य तथा अदृष्य दबाबले प्रधानमन्त्री पुष्पकमल दाहाल आफैं पनि आत्मविश्वास गुमाउँदै छन् ।

शुक्रबार तनहुँको आँबुखैरेनी गाउँपालिकाद्वारा सञ्चालित आँबुखैरेनी अस्पतालको समुद्घाटन गर्दै प्रधानमन्त्री दाहालले गठबन्धनको एकता धेरै बलियो भएको बताउँदै आफूलाई एक महिना पनि जाँदैन भन्नेहरू रहेको तर, राम्रो काम गर्दा ११ महिनासम्म सहजै आएको बताए । उनकै भनाइबाट पनि स्पष्ट हुन्छ, प्रधानमन्त्रीको अन्तर्मनमा अझै पनि आफू सत्तामा टिकेकोमा गर्व छ ।

हुनत नेपाली राजनीतिमा सत्तामा टिक्न कस्ता कस्ता सम्झौता भए भनेर सोच्ने हो भने लामै फेहरिस्त बन्छ । राजनीतिमात्र होइन, नेपालका सबै राजनीतिज्ञ प्रतिको आजको चरम विकर्षण त्यसैको कारण हो । त्यतातिर नजाउँ ।

तर, सत्तामा टिक्न सम्झौता गर्दै गर्दा, आम जनताका दैनिन्दिनका समस्यामा ध्यान दिन चुकेको अझ थप समस्या निम्त्याइएका धेरै उदाहरण छन् । सरकारले नीतिगत भ्रष्टाचार गरेका कारण बजारमा अनुचित महँगी बढ्दा सरकारले कारवाहि गर्न नसकेको अथवा गर्न नचाहेको मात्र होइन, सरकारले लिएको प्रिपेड घुसको पैसा जनताको खल्तीबाट तिराएका कारण पनि राजनीतिज्ञ अनि राजनीतिक व्यवस्था नै बदनामा भएको कुरामा कुनै शंका छैन ।

यसैबीच, अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान बनाएर आर्थिक कृयाकलापमा जनताहरुलाई विशेषत युवालाई ब्यस्त बनाउन सके नियन्त्रित प्रजातन्त्र तथा नियन्त्रित अर्थ ब्यवस्था लाद्न सकिन्छ कि भन्ने उत्तरी छिमेकीको पदचिन्ह पछ्याउने सरकारी तयारी हो कि भन्ने निजी क्षेत्रको त्रास छ ।

त्यसको लागी नियन्त्रित निजी क्षेत्र पनि अनिवार्य शर्त हो । निजी क्षेत्रको नियन्त्रणबाट प्रजातन्त्र पनि नियन्त्रितरुपमा चलाउन सकिन्छ भन्ने दक्षिणी छिमेकीको उदाहरण पनि भएका कारण सरकार उदार र प्रतिस्पर्धी अर्थतन्त्रभन्दा नियन्त्रित अर्थतन्त्रतर्फ अगाडि बढेको निजी क्षेत्रको आशंका छ ।

तर, सोमबार अर्थ, गृह, भौतिक पूर्वाधार, सहरी विकास, उर्जा, जलस्रोत तथा सिंचाई मन्त्रालयका मन्त्री तथा सचिव र नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंक, राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोग, धितोपत्र बोर्डका नेतृत्वहरुसँग प्रधानमन्त्रीले बालुवाटारमा तीनघन्टा लामो छलफल गरेपछि मंगलबार प्रधानमन्त्री कार्यालय सिंहदरबारमा निजी क्षेत्रको गुनासा सुन्ने भएका छन् ।

आफनो सरकारले अर्थतन्त्रलाई क्रमशः सुधार गरेको दाबी गर्ने प्रधानमन्त्रीले के प्रतिस्पर्धी निजी क्षेत्र बनाउन सघाउलान् कि सरकार नियन्त्रित निजी क्षेत्रको परिकल्पनालाई साकार रुप दिने गृहकार्य गर्लान् हेर्न बाँकि नै छ ।

तर, निजी क्षेत्र आफैं पनि यतिखेर नीतिगत अलमलमा छ । निजी क्षेत्रको पहिलो गुनासो चर्को ब्याजदर हो । तर चर्को ब्याजदरको बिरोध गरिरहँदा निजी क्षेत्रले उद्योग ब्यवसायमा ब्याजदरको भार कति हो र कसरी ब्याजदरका कारण उद्योग ब्यवसाय पीडित भए भन्ने स्पष्ट पार्न प्रधानमन्त्री समक्ष तथ्य तथा तथ्यांक पनि प्रस्तुत गर्लान् नै ।

चर्को ब्याजदरभन्दा पनि खतरनाक समस्या प्रतिस्पर्धाबिहीन बजार हो भन्ने कुरामा निजी क्षेत्रले प्रधानमन्त्रीलाई कति बुझाउन सक्छ, त्यसैले नेपालको निजी क्षेत्रमात्र होइन अर्थतन्त्र कता जान्छ र कसरी अगाडि बढ्छ निर्क्यौल हुने देखिन्छ ।

माने पनि नमाने पनि नेपाली अर्थतन्त्र आजका मितिसम्म कोल्याप्स नहुनुका पछाडि खुला बजार र त्यसले सिर्जना गरेको प्रतिस्पर्धा नै हो । प्रतिस्पर्धाका कारण बजारमा वस्तु तथा सेवाको मूल्य घट्ने तथा गुणस्तरमा सुधार आउँछ । तर, नेपालमा विभिन्न वादका सरकारहरु बन्दै गर्दा ठिमाहा प्रकृतीको खुला बजार प्रबद्र्धन गरिएका कारण सरकार तथा आमजनता दुबै ठगिएका छन् ।

सरकारले बजारमा प्रतिस्पर्धा गर्ने तथा आमजनता अनि सरकार आफै पनि राजश्व नठगिने वातावरण बनाउन प्रधानमन्त्रीले कसरी सहजीकरण गर्न सक्छन्, त्यसैमा सरकारको सफलता अथवा असफलता निर्भर रहन्छ । एकातिर सरकारले लक्ष्य अनुरुपको रावश्व उठाउन सकिरहेको छैन भने अर्कोतिर सरकार खर्च गर्न पनि असमर्थ छ । अझ स्पष्टरुपमा भन्ने हो प्रतिस्पर्धी बजार नबनाएका कारण सरकार लगातार राजश्वमा ठगिएको छ । राजश्व चुवाहट बढेका कारण राजश्वको लक्ष्य भेट्न मुश्किल परेको छ । अनि पैसा नभएका कारण विकासका काममा खर्च गर्न सरकारलारई हम्मे परेको छ ।

त्यसैले अर्थतन्त्र संकुचनमा गइरहेको निजी क्षेत्रको आरोप छ । तर, अर्थ मन्त्रालयका अनुसार भने गत आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो त्रैमासको तुलनामा चालू आवको पहिलो त्रैमासमा पुँजीगत खर्च २२ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ ।

यसैगरि, लक्ष्य नभेटेपनि राजश्व बृद्धिदर पनि सन्तोषजनक रहेको अर्थमन्त्रालयको दाबी छ ।

विदेशी लगानी पनि गत आवको पहिलो त्रैमासभन्दा चालू आवमा बढि आएको अर्थमन्त्रालयको तथ्यांक छ । गत आवको पहिलो त्रैमासमा १ अर्बभन्दा कम वैदेसिक लगानी नेपाल भित्रिएकोमा चालू आवको पहिलो त्रैमासमा ३ अर्ब हाराहारी भित्रिएको छ ।

यसैगरि, गत आवको पहिलो तीन महिनामाभन्दा निजी क्षेत्रमा गएको बर्जा पनि दोब्बर भएको छ । यसरी सरकारले अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान हुन लागेको दाबी गरेको छ ।

अर्थतन्त्रमा आज देखिएको समस्या रातारात आएका होइनन् । तर, पछिल्लो एक दशकको आर्थिक बृद्धीदरको औसत् ४ प्रतिशत हाराहारीमात्र रहेको कारण पनि वर्तमान सरकार दबाबमा छ । अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान नहुनु, रोजगारीको अभावमा युवा विदेश पलायन बढ्नु तथा सरकारको खर्च गर्ने क्षमतामा वृद्धि नहुनुका कारण पनि निजी क्षेत्रले सरकारलाई अर्थतन्त्र सुधारमा दबाब दिन थालेका छन् ।

त्यसमाथि पछिल्लो समय आन्तरिक तथा बाह्य कारणले बढ्दो महंगीका कारण सर्वसाधारणको जीवनयापनमा समस्याग्रस्त बन्दै गइरहेको छ ।

Saturday, November 18, 2023

TikTok users protest against government ban

TikTok users today protested against the government decision to ban the app.

Expressing their displeasure against the government’s decision of banning the popular social media application, the TikTok users gathered at Maitighar Mandala and protested against the government's decision.

They argued that the government has curtailed their right to freedom of expression by banning the video-sharing site TikTok. They also advised the government not to be afraid of TikTok users and demanded immediately lifting the ban.

Claiming that TikTok has had a negative impact on social harmony, the government -- on November 13 -- banned the TikTok, which is being used as a social networking site in Nepal. The government also accused TikTok of not cooperating with it to minimise such activities and take action against those involved.

After the government banned TikTok, the platform wrote a letter to the Nepal Telecommunication Authority (NTA), stating that it was surprised by the government ban. “We provided the Nepal government access to the ‘Trust and Safety Enforcement Tool,’ a portal for direct content removal requests as per Nepal’s laws. Furthermore, we registered as a digital service taxpayer,” TikTok said in its letter.

The Nepal Telecommunication Authority (NTA), coming into immediate action -- which is very unlikely in Nepal -- ordered all the Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to ban the application. The telecommunication sector regulator ahs also formed a technical committee led by director Bijay Kumar Rai for the effective implementation of the government's decision to ban TikTok in the country.

However, on Friday, as many as 10 writ petitions have been filed at the Supreme Court challenging the government’s decision to ban the TikTok.

According to the Supreme Court, the apex court will conduct an initial hearing on the petitions on Monday.

Two elderly men succumb to cold in makeshift shelters in Jajarkot

As the government's negligence reached the pick, additional two quake-hit elderly men died of cold today.

"Two elderly people living in makeshift tarpaulin shelters in Jajarkot passed away due to cold weather today," confirmed Barekot Rural Municipality chairperson Bir Bahadur Gurung. 

The deceased have been identified as Dhuleshwar Karki of Bheri Municipality-2 and Narendra Bahadur Singh of Jiri in Barekot Rural Municipality-4. Both were living in makeshift shelters after their homes were damaged by the earthquake.

According to Gurung, both Karki and Singh were asthma patients, and the cold weather aggravated their health.

More than 34,000 people in Jajarkot are living in makeshift tarpaulin shelters as the earthquake has rendered their houses inhabitable, with the elderly, children, and new mothers being the most affected.

Despite huge relief materials and hefty cash assistance from inside and out of the country, the governments failed to manage the distribution of relief materials, especially in the cold season.

According to the chief district officer (CDO) of Jajarkot Suresh Sunar, children, new mothers, chronically ill, and the elderly living in makeshift shelters are more affected. "Two chronic patients living in makeshift shelters died due to cold in Nalgad-4 last week," he said, claiming that they are taking needful initiatives to manage the situation. But the death of citizens exposed their inefficiency and negligence towards the people. 

The government has already collected a fund of Rs 152.80 million for helping the victims of the Jajarkot earthquake.

According to spokesperson at the Office of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministries (OPMCM) Narayan Prasad Bhatta, the amount has been collected in the Prime Minister Natural Disaster Relief Fund. Though, the government claimed to utilise the amount for supporting the victims of the Jajarkot earthquake that hit the area two weeks ago, people are suffering, especially due to cold weather, and failed to provide respite to the quake-affected.

The tremor had claimed 153 lives and left hundreds of others injured and homeless.

Thursday, November 16, 2023

EU to provide Nepal Rs 289 million in humanitarian aid

The European Union (EU) is providing approved a €2 million (approximately Rs 289 million) aid package for the earthquake-affected people in Jajarkot and Rukum West districts.

“Following the earthquake that struck Nepal earlier this month, the EU has approved a €2 million aid package to bring relief to the most affected people, according to a press note issued by the EU Brussels. "The EU approved the aid package to provide shelter, access to clean water and sanitation, and healthcare, among other services to the survivors of the recent Jajarkot earthquake."

The support package includes €600,000 (Rs 86 million) financial aid for humanitarian partners already providing assistance in affected areas, the press note reads, adding that, in addition, €200,000 (Rs 28 million) has been allocated to the Nepal Red Cross Society, via the Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). "The EU will also mobilise in-kind assistance from its European Humanitarian Response Capacity (EHRC), worth €1.2 million (Rs 173 million), which will include tents and winterisation kits that will be sent from the EU’s stockpile in Kuala Lumpur, to address the crucial shelter needs of vulnerable families whose homes were destroyed."

The latest funding comes in addition to the €2 million (Rs 289 million) already allocated to Nepal at the beginning of this year, with the goal of responding to natural hazards and strengthening disaster preparedness.

Meanwhile, EU Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarcic said that, like in previous disasters, the EU remains ready to help those most in need.

“This new aid package will provide shelter to people that have lost their homes and prepare them to face the upcoming winter, while helping with other pressing needs,” he said.

This new funding comes in addition to the already allocated to Nepal at the start of this year, with the goal of responding to natural hazards and to strengthen disaster preparedness, the EU note reads.

An earthquake measuring 6.4 on the Richter scale hit the hilly districts of Karnali Province -- Jajarkot and Rukum West -- leaving 153 dead and 363 others injured.


Thursday, November 9, 2023

Government decides to open embassy in Portugal, appoints envoy too

The government decides to establish a residential Nepali Embassy in Portugal.

A meeting of the Council of Ministers held today took the decision to open a residential embassy in the Portugal, confirmed Minister for Communications and Information Rekha Sharma.

The meeting also decided to appoint Sanil Nepal as the first Nepali ambassador to Portugal, the government spokesperson added.

Though, some cabinet minister claimed that the government's decision to open Nepali Embassy in Portugal has come under Deuba's pressure, the government -- in the last week of October -- had struck a deal to establish a residential embassy in Portugal.

Currently, Nepal has 40 diplomatic missions abroad including 30 residential embassies, 3 permanent missions, and 7 consulates general, for which billions are spent annually from the state coffer. But the investment on these mission has been very nominal compared to the government spending. 

Diplomatic relations between Nepal and Portugal were established in September 1976. It is estimated that around 60,000 Nepalis are currently residing in this southern European country. 

According to the Constitution of Nepal-2015, the President appoints diplomats to their positions after their names are endorsed by the parliamentary hearing committee.

Though, opening a new embassy will incur a financial burden of billions of rupees annually, the government has not been able to lure investment and tourist with the help of these missions abroad. The embassy also has to play a role in strengthening bilateral ties while keeping in mind the interests of Nepal and the rights of Nepali migrant workers.

Though, economists and foreign experts are repeatedly suggesting that the number of embassies be reviewed, the government has been adding the foreign missions. The Prachanda-led government in its budget statement last May had said that it would review the number of embassies. 

Likewise, the cabinet today also passed the directives for operation of social media 2023 with some amendments.

Th meeting passed the directives presented by the legislation committee of the council of ministers with some changes, government spokesperson  Rekha Sharma added.

The Cabinet meeting has also passed the National Vocational and Skill Development Training Academy (Formation and Operation) Order 2023, and the National Vocational Training Center Development Committee (Formation) Order 2023.

Nepal’s trade with China yet to return to normal

With significant disruptions to cross-border trade between Nepal and China stemming from the 2015 earthquake and the global Covid-19 pandemic, Nepal’s trade with China is yet to return to normal. The challenges arising from the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures impacting Nepali products require prompt attention, as do the specific issues surrounding transportation, connectivity, and logistical aspects, in both exports and imports, opined the experts today during a roundtable discussion on 'Nepal-China Trade: Prospects and Challenges,' organised by South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics, and Environment (SAWTEE), and supported by The Asia Foundation (The Foundation).

The discussion centred on the trade relationship between Nepal and China, examining the challenges within the overall trade ecosystem that have contributed to the lacklustre export performance. According to a study conducted by SAWTEE on Nepal-China Trade, between 2020 and 2022, over 90 per cent of the value of goods exported to China from Nepal were covered by the zero-duty list for the least developed countries (LDCs), but the utilization of preferences averaged 68 per cent.

On the occasion, research officer at SAWTEE Rupesh Tha highlighted -- in his presentation -- that although China stands as Nepal's second-largest trading partner, the trade balance has distinctly favoured China. "It is vital for Nepal to fully harness the advantages of zero-tariff treatment provided to over 8,000 products originating in Nepal and diversify its exports to China," he said, adding that bilateral agreements, such as the trade and payment agreement 1981, are currently outdated and ill-suited to the present circumstances and need to be reviewed. "This is particularly pertinent as Nepal grapples with a significant trade deficit with China."

Former joint secretary at the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies (MOICS) Rabi Shanker Sainju, on the occasion, said that Nepal's trade with China is adversely affected by the high transportation costs resulting from its inadequate logistics infrastructure. "With the evolution of the landscape of the Chinese consumer market, demand for high-quality products has increased, and this must be taken into account when looking to boost exports to China," he added.  

Under secretary at the ministry Achyut Dhungana identified infrastructure and logistics, the negotiation and execution of trade agreements, market access, and the facilitation of cross-border payments as the four key factors that should be considered for enhancing trade with China. He also informed that a meeting has already been held to discuss the review and amendment of the trade and payment agreement signed between the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to enhance bilateral trade relations.

Chairman of Nepal Trans Himalaya Border Commerce Association Ashok Kumar Shrestha emphasised the need for enhancing trust between stakeholders -- public and private sectors -- of the two countries, in addition to improving infrastructure, logistics, and connectivity, to build trust to give a boost to Nepal-China trade ties. Highlighting the need for meeting phytosanitary requirements for the export of Nepali products to China, he suggested establishing a multifunctional quarantine laboratory.

Likewise, former trade secretary Bindra Hada highlighted the longstanding history of bilateral trade relations between the two countries.

Delivering the special remarks on the occasion, joint secretary at the ministry Ram Chandra Tiwari said that Nepal's incentive structure doesn't place enough emphasis on supporting entrepreneurship, startups, and the overall industrial ecosystem, leading to a lackluster export performance.

Moreover, he noted that the three-tiered structure of government under federalism has diminished collaboration between the different levels of government, resulting in ineffective resource utilization and subpar export performance. 

Participants -- including trade experts, policymakers, and representatives from the private sector -- also drew attention to evaluate the trade consequences for Nepal following its graduation from the LDC category in 2026. They further suggested that studies on Nepal-China trade should also look into the impact on trade with China and the existing tariff benefits provided by China, and explore alternative trade agreements and provisions to safeguard Nepal's trade with China in the years after graduation.

Monday, November 6, 2023

UNDP urges swift action and new directions to advance Asia-Pacific's Human Development

The Asia-Pacific region is lurching towards an era of unmet aspirations, worsening inequalities, and a steady erosion of democratic spaces. Rising global tensions, new technologies, growing polarisation, and existential threats linked to climate change threaten to disrupt improvements in well-being the region has seen in past decades, according to a new report from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The 2024 Asia-Pacific Human Development Report, launched today, paints a qualified picture of long-term progress, but also persistent disparity and widespread disruption, foreseeing a turbulent development landscape and urgently calling for new directions to boost human development.

Titled Making our Future: new directions for Human Development in Asia and the Pacific, "that unmet aspirations, heightened human insecurity, and a potentially more turbulent future create an urgent need for change," the report warns that the region faces three converging ‘risk clusters’, ranging from existential threats due to climate change and future pandemics, economic headwinds from shifting globalisation patterns and automation, and a flagging pace of reform due to diminishing democratic spaces, rising populism, and polarisation.

While the region will account for two-thirds of global economic growth this year, income and wealth disparities are worsening, particularly in South Asia, where the wealthiest 10 per cent control over half of total income. 

More than 185 million people continue to live in extreme poverty – earning below $2.15 a day – a number that is expected to climb higher following the economic shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic, the report reads.

“The report underscores that to overcome existing challenges, we must prioritise investments in human development, with an understanding that each nation will tailor its own pathways to do so,” said UN assistant secretary-general and UNDP’s regional director for Asia and the Pacific Kanni Wignaraja. “By fostering a people-first policy and smart growth strategies that put a high value on natural assets, we can pave the way for a future that is not only more secure and peaceful but also sustainable and prosperous for many millions more."

To bring about that change the Report calls for three new directions in human development: to put people at the heart of development, to recalibrate growth strategies to generate more jobs and respect the environment, and to focus relentlessly on the politics of reform and the science of delivery to turn ideas into practice.

It also provides a panoramic view of how in an uncertain future, countries can revitalize development strategies to close existing inequality gaps and reduce human insecurity.

A people-centered strategy must start by expanding choice for everyone by, among other things, tackling structural exclusion, upholding human dignity, and building capability. Tackling structural exclusion is not only the ‘right thing to do,’ it could also produce large economic benefits. Promoting women's equality alone could boost the region's collective annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by $4.5 trillion by 2025, the report further reads.

With external market conditions becoming more competitive, a razor-sharp focus on competitiveness and diversification is essential. The Report also highlights new areas of economic opportunity in the low carbon ‘green economy’ and in technologies, and the region’s rich marine resources that can be optimized and sustained through new technology and investment as part of the blue economy, which is especially important for Small Island Developing States.

"The call for economic growth should be louder, not quieter, as growth remains essential for human development,” UNDP’s chief economist for Asia and the Pacific, and the principal author of the Report, Philip Schellekens said, adding that facing growing headwinds to growth and job creation and the prospect of further disruption, it is time to recalibrate both export-led and domestically oriented growth strategies.

The region’s large informal workforce—about 1.3 billion people—is being left behind, with many workers trapped in low-quality jobs because the formal sector has failed to offer decent employment opportunities. And the region has seen a steady reversal in democratic practices, to a degree last seen in the late 1970s, the report notes, with the pandemic enabling governments to further tighten restrictions on civil liberties. 

To chart a new course, governments would need to be future fit to combat the challenges to come.  It unpacks how a greater focus on making change happen would be rooted in leadership and governance that is more anticipatory, more adaptable, and more agile.

UNDP is the leading United Nations organisation fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and planet.

Friday, November 3, 2023

CAAN suspends license of two pilots

The Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) today suspended the license of two pilots.

CAAN spokesperson and deputy director general Jagannath Niraula confirmed the suspension of license of Senior Captain Santosh Shah and Captain Sanjib Shrestha, the pilots of the Tara Air, who were engaged in a physical fight in the premises of the airport at Manthali, Ramechhap this morning.

"The license of the two senior captains have been suspended until further notice due to the breach of the security standard. Their license will be revoked or other action, according to the law, might be taken against them after detailed investigation," Niraula added.

The aviation sector regulator stated that the reason behind the two pilots belonging to the same company resorting to physical fight is not known yet. "A thorough investigation could also result in the revocation of their licenses and the imposition of other punitive measures in accordance with regulations," the regulator said, adding that it has also suspended the station manager of the Manthali Airport.

In the last 10 months, CAAN has taken action against some 20 pilots. "The increasing indiscipline among the pilots has been a serious concern lately," the regulatory authority claimed.

Meanwhile, Senior Captain Shah has filed a case against Captain Shrestha at the police station.

Earlier today morning, a fight erupted between two Tara Air pilots at Ramechhap Airport, raising concerns within the aviation community. The fight occurred at 8 AM, when a TwinOtter aircraft operated by Tara Air landed at Ramechhap Airport from Lukla.

Though, the exact cause of the fight remains undisclosed, the eyewitnesses claimed that they 

"I am currently probing the incident of Senior Captain Santosh Shah, who had piloted the aircraft arriving from Lukla at 8 AM, and Captain Sanjeev Shrestha, who was scheduled to take the aircraft back to Lukla," station manager of Manthali Airport Ashok Thapa aid this morning.

According to informed sources, the fight occurred during the duty changeover. As Senior Captain Shah was heading towards the airport building, Captain Shrestha was en route to the aircraft. The fight began when Captain Shrestha pushed Captain Shah, who had extended his hand for a handshake. Subsequently, a physical confrontation ensued.

Captain Shah reported an injury to his hand and left for treatment in the Manthali market, while Captain Sanjeev Shrestha continued to Lukla with the aircraft. The aircraft and Captain Shrestha have since been grounded at Lukla Airport.

"Sanjeev mentioned that it was a personal matter, and said that he can operate the aircraft," informed the Manthali airport. "Currently, the aircraft and Captain Shrestha remain grounded at Lukla airport, while Senior Captain Shah has been grounded in Ramechhap."

Tara Airlines' spokesperson Sudarshan Bertaula informed that the company is inquiring into the matter. "This fight appears to be rooted in their personal issues and is unrelated to the airline's operations or flights," he said, adding that the company has started internal investigation to ascertain the details of the incident.

Monday, October 30, 2023

Conflict in Middle East could bring ‘Dual Shock’ to global commodity markets

Although the global economy is in a much better position than it was in the 1970s to cope with a major oil-price shock, an escalation of the latest conflict in the Middle East—which comes on top of disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine—could push global commodity markets into uncharted waters, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

The report provides a preliminary assessment of the potential near-term implications of the conflict for commodity markets. It finds that the effects should be limited, if the conflict doesn’t widen. Under the World Bank’s baseline forecast, oil prices are expected to average $90-a- barrel in the current quarter before declining to an average of $81-a-barrel next year as global economic growth slows. Overall commodity prices are projected to fall 4.1% next year. Prices of agricultural commodities are expected to decline next year as supplies rise. Prices of base metals are also projected to drop by 5 per cent in 2024. Commodity prices are expected to stabilise in 2025.

The conflict’s effects on global commodity markets have been limited so far. Overall oil prices have risen about 6 per cent since the start of the conflict. Prices of agricultural commodities, most metals, and other commodities have barely budged, the report reads.

The outlook for commodity prices would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate. The report outlines what might happen under three risk scenarios based on historical experience since the 1970s. The effects would depend on the degree of disruption to oil supplies. In a 'small disruption' scenario, the global oil supply would be reduced by 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day—roughly equivalent to the reduction seen during the Libyan civil war in 2011. Under this scenario, the oil price would initially increase between 3 per cent and 13 per cent relative to the average for the current quarter—-to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel.

In a 'medium disruption' scenario—roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003—the global oil supply would be curtailed by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day. That would drive oil prices up by 21 per cent to 35 per cent initially—to between $109 and $121 a barrel. In a 'large disruption' scenario—comparable to the Arab oil embargo in 1973— the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day. That would drive prices up by 56 per cent to 75 per cent initially—to between $140 and $157 a barrel.

“The latest conflict in the Middle East comes on the heels of the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s—Russia’s war with Ukraine,” said the World Bank’s chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics Indermit Gill. "That had disruptive effects on the global economy that persist to this day. Policymakers will need to be vigilant. If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades—not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East.”

“Higher oil prices, if sustained, inevitably mean higher food prices,” said the World Bank’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group Ayhan Kose. “If a severe oil-price shock materializes, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countries. At the end of 2022, more than 700 million people—nearly a tenth of the global population—were undernourished. An escalation of the latest conflict would intensify food insecurity, not only within the region but also across the world.”

The fact that the conflict has so far had only modest impacts on commodity prices may reflect the global economy’s improved ability to absorb oil price shocks. Since the energy crisis of the 1970s, the report reads, countries across the world have bolstered their defenses against such shocks. They have reduced their dependence on oil—the amount of oil needed to generate $1 of GDP has fallen by more than half since 1970. They have a more diversified base of oil exporters and expanded energy resources, including renewable sources. Some countries have established strategic petroleum reserves, set up arrangements for the coordination of supply, and developed futures markets to mitigate the impact of oil shortages on prices. These improvements suggest that an escalation of the conflict might have more moderate effects than would have been the case in the past.

Policymakers nevertheless need to remain alert, the report says. Some commodities—gold in particular—are flashing a warning about the outlook. Gold prices have risen about 8% since the onset of the conflict. Gold prices have a unique relationship to geopolitical concerns: they rise in periods of conflict and uncertainty often signaling an erosion of investor confidence.

If the conflict escalates, policymakers in developing countries will need to take steps to manage a potential increase in headline inflation. Given the risk of greater food insecurity, governments should avoid trade restrictions such as export bans on food and fertilizer. Such measures often intensify price volatility and heighten food insecurity. They should also refrain from introducing price controls and price subsidies in response to higher food and oil prices. A better option is to improve social safety nets, diversify food sources, and increase efficiency in food production and trade. In the longer term, all countries can bolster their energy security by accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources—which will mitigate the effects of oil-price shocks.