Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Economy sees highest growth after CA election

The country will witness the highest growth rate in the current fiscal year after the Constituent Assembly (CA) election in 2006.
Due to good harvest, the agriculture sector will grow by 4.93 per cent and the non-agriculture sector will see 4.27 per cent growth pushing the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to 4.56 per cent at basic price in the current fiscal year, according to the preliminary estimation of the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). But the government had projected a 5.5 per cent growth in its fiscal policy and revised it in the mid-term evaluation to five per cent.
According to the revised estimation of the last fiscal year, the country had witnessed a 3.81 per cent growth from a preliminary estimation of 3.47 per cent, whereas the country had witnessed a growth of 4.26 per cent in the fiscal year 2009-10.
Except for the construction sector that has seen a slump since the last one year, all the other sectors have witnessed growth without much contribution from the government or any positive policy intervention.
The construction sector which witnessed a growth of 4.79 per cent in the last fiscal year, will see a negative growth of 0.07 per cent this fiscal year, according to the estimation that has also revealed the slower growth rate of manufacturing at 1.28 per cent against the 2.29 per cent growth of last fiscal year.
Though the contribution of agriculture and forestry to the GDP is still the highest at 34.78 per cent, it has decreased from last fiscal year's 36.54 per cent. The second largest contributor to the GDP is wholesale and retail trade with 14.24 per cent followed by transport, storage and communications with 8.33 per cent and real estate, renting and business activities with 8.17 per cent.
Similarly, the size of the economy has also increased to Rs 1.55 trillion in the current fiscal year from last fiscal year's Rs 1.36 trillion, according to director general of CBS Uttam Narayan Malla. "The gross national disposal income will touch Rs 1.97 trillion thanks to remittance inflow," he said, adding that the country will have a gross national savings of Rs 571.08 billion.
Thanks to the current account surplus, the gross national savings will stand at 36.65 per cent of the gross domestic product. Similarly, per capita GDP has also increased to $735 from last fiscal year's $731.

GDP growth
2005-06 — 3.73 per cent
2006-07 — 2.75 per cent
2007-08 — 5.80 per cent
2008-09 — 3.90 per cent
2009-10 — 4.26 per cent
2010-11 — 3.81 per cent
2011-12 — 4.56 per cent
(Source : Central Bureau of Statistics)

GDP per capita
2005-06 — $350
2006-07 — $410
2007-08 — $491
2008-09 — $497
2009-10 — $610
2010-11 — $712
2011-12 — $735
(Source : Central Bureau of Statistics)

Structure of Production (2011-12)
Primary sector — 35.68 per cent
Secondary sector — 14.02 per cent
Tertiary sector — 50.31 per cent
(Source : Central Bureau of Statistics)

Composition of GDP
Classification — 2010-11 — 2011-12
Agriculture — 36.54 — 34.78
Wholesale and Retail trade — 14.16 — 14.24
Transport, storage and communication — 7.97 — 8.33
Real estate, renting and business activities — 8.24 — 8.17
Construction — 6.93 — 6.73
Manufacturing — 6.17 — 6.17
Education — 4.86 — 5.50
Financial Intermediation — 4.30 — 4.66
Other community, social and personal service activities — 3.83 — 3.96
Public administration and defence — 1.93 — 2.12
Hotels and restaurents — 1.70 — 1.78
Health and social work — 1.28 — 1.55
Electricity gas and water — 1.19 — 1.13
Mining and quarrying — 0.54 — 0.56
Fishing — 0.35 — 0.34
(Figures in per cent. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics)


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