Global unemployment soars, to remain high in 2010

The number of jobless worldwide reached nearly 212 million in 2009 following an unprecedented increase of 34 million compared to 2007, on the eve of the global crisis, the International Labour Office (ILO) said in its annual Global Employment Trends report.
Based on IMF economic forecasts, the ILO estimates that global unemployment is likely to remain high in 2010. In the Developed Economies and EU, unemployment is projected to increase by an additional three million people in 2010 to 8.9 per cent (up from 8.4 per cent in 2009 and 6.0 per cent in 2008), according to the report. Overall, despite comprising less than 16 per cent of the global workforce, Developed Economies and EU region accounted for more than 40 per cent of the increase in global unemployment since 2007.
Asia and the Pacific will fare slightly better than elsewhere in the world, the report predicts. Still, the region as a whole can expect an average unemployment rate in 2010 ranging from 4.3 per cent to 5.6 per cent (Southeast Asia and Pacific at 5.6 per cent while East Asia and South Asia predicting slight declines to rates of 4.3 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively).
A rapid improvement in the Chinese domestic market, as well as the positive spill-over effects to neighbouring countries, led to an improvement in the economic and labour market figures for the region.
However, the ILO also said the number of unemployed youth worldwide increased by 10.2 million in 2009 (to 13.4 per cent) compared to 2007, the largest hike since 1991, with East Asia and Southeast Asia and Pacific showing some of the steepest increases. In East Asia, from 1999 - 2009, youth participation in the labour force declined by 9.3 per cent in East Asia and 5.3 per cent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, compared with a global average decline of 3.4 per cent for the same period.
The report says that coordinated stimulus measures have averted a far greater social and economic catastrophe; yet millions of women and men around the world are still without a job, unemployment benefits or any viable form of social protection. “As the World Economic Forum gathers at Davos, it is clear that avoiding a jobless recovery is the political priority of today” said ILO Director-General Juan Somavia. “We need the same policy decisiveness that saved banks now applied to save and create jobs and livelihoods of people. This can be done through strong convergence of public policies and private investment.”
Somavia added, “With 45 million young women and men entering the global labour market every year, recovery measures must target job creation for our young people.”
According to the ILO, the share of workers in vulnerable employment worldwide is estimated to reach over 1.5 billion, equivalent to over half (50.6 per cent) of the world’s working population. The number of women and men in vulnerable employment is estimated to have increased in 2009, by as much as 110 million compared to 2008. The report also says that, worldwide, 633 million workers and their families were living on less than $1.25 per day in 2008, with as many as 215 million additional workers living on the margin and at risk of falling into poverty in 2009.
The ILO report says that it is urgent to establish wide coverage of basic social protection schemes to cushion the poor against the devastating effects of sharp fluctuations in economic activity.
To address these issues, the ILO constituents which represent the ‘real economy’ have agreed a Global Jobs Pact that contain a balanced set of tried and tested measures to promote a robust response to the employment challenge by
focusing on accelerated employment generation, sustainable social protection systems, respect for labour standards, and strengthening social dialogue. The Pact has received strong backing from the G20 heads of state and from the UN.

Key Findings
• The global unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in 2009, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over 2007. However it varied widely by region, ranging from 4.4 per cent in East Asia to more than 10 per cent in Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CSEE & CIS) as well as in North Africa.
• The global youth unemployment rate rose by 1.6 percentage points to reach 13.4 per cent in 2009 relative to 2007. This represents the largest increase since at least 1991, the earliest year for which global estimates are available.
• The overall impact of the economic crisis on women and men is far more important than the differences in impact between these groups.
• Preliminary estimates of growth in labour productivity, measured as output per worker, indicate that productivity levels fell in all regions except East Asia, South Asia and North Africa. The largest decline in output per worker occurred in Central and South-Eastern Europe (non- EU) & CIS, — 4.7 per cent, thus reversing part of the gains that were made in the first half of the decade.
• As a result of declining output per worker, working conditions are deteriorating especially in regions where labour productivity was already low preceding the economic crisis.