Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Economy to grow by 3.47 per cent

Economy is projected to grow by 3.47 per cent from its preliminary projection.
Poor performance of non-agriculture sector has pulled the economic growth below four per cent against the government projection of 4.5 per cent and Three Year Interim Plan's projection of 5.5 per cent, said the Central Statistics Bureau (CBS) releasing the national accounts report here today.
The non-agriculture sector that witnessed a gowth of 5.39 per cent in the last fiscal year is ecpected to grow by only 3.09 per cent this fiscal year -- compared to last fiscal year -- dragging the overall gross domestic production (GDP) below four per cent, said director at the National Accounts Division of CBS Suman Raj Aryal. "Boosted by the good crops yield, the agriculture sector is however, projected to grow by 4.11 per cent against last fiscal year's growth of 1.27 per cent."
Nepal's GDP is lowest among all South Asian countries against 12 per cent of Bhutan, six per cent of Bangladesh, nine per cent of India and even Southern neighbour China's 10 per cent, according to CBS.
Electricity, gas and water, and wholesale and retail trade are projected to post negative growth of 4.02 per cent and 0.23 per cent, respectively, whereas community, social and personal services; education; public administration and defence; real estate, renting and business activities; construction; and mining and quarrying are expected to register lower growth compared to the last fiscal year.
Similarly, agriculture and forestry; fishing; transport, storage and communication; financial intermediation; and health and social work sectors are the sectors that are expected to record more growth compared to last fiscal year.
The policy dilemma due to political intability, regular power outage, slowdown in construction and real estate sector due to regulatory barriers, and no new investments dragged the overall economic performnace resulting in the below four per cent growth.
Meanwhile, the Bureau has also revised the growth rate of last fiscal year 2009-10 to 3.97 per cent from its earlier projection of 3.53 per cent.
In the last one decade, the country had witnessed a growth of an average of a little over three per cent, except that in the fiscal year 2007-08, it had registered 5.80 per cent growth.

Per capita GDP at $642
KATHMANDU: The report also projected that the country could register $642 per capita GDP and $645 per capital gross national income (GNI). Per capita GDP -- that is income per person -- is the numerical quotient of income divided by population, in monetary terms that is a measure of all sources of income in an economic aggregate of a country but does not measure income distribution or wealth, whereas per capita GNI is the dollar value of a country’s final income in a year -- divided by its population -- that reflects the average income of a country’s citizens. But the classification by income does not necessarily reflect the development status of a country. A country with a biased income distribution could have a relatively high per-capita GNI while the majority of its citizens have a relatively low level of income, due to concentration of wealth in the hands of a small fraction of the population.

Growth
* Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -- 4.11 per cent
* Non-agriculture -- 3.09 per cent
* Total GDP (at basic prices) -- 3.47 per cent

Nepal ranks 100 in property rights among 129 countries

Nepal ranked at the 100th position with a score of 4.4 out of 10 -- putting it in the bottom 20 per cent of the quintile in the International Property Rights Index for this year -- among the 129 countries.
The report launched globally today was launched by the Samriddhi Foundation here in the valley.
Compared to last year's score of 4, Nepal has scored a little higher to 4.4 due to improvement in Physical property rights but in overall property Right Status Nepal has scored 3.2, in Legal and Political Environment 5.8, in Physical Property Rights and 4.1 and in Intellectual Property Rights 4.1.
Flanking neighbours to Nepal -- Peoples Republic of China and India -- on the other hand have scored 5.5 and 5.6 respectively making the countries in the list of the countries, where there is more property rights.
Sweden and Finland have tied for the top spot in this year's index with a score of 8.5, Finland has retained its top spot for the fifth year in a row, whereas in South Asian region, Pakistan and Bangladesh that are below Nepal, scored 4.1 and 3.6, respectively. Nigeria with 3.9 is in the bottom of the list, according to the index.
While in the context of Property Rights and Gender Equality, Nepal ranks 68th along with Zambia and Uganda.
The International Property Rights Index (IPRI) is a publication of the Property Rights Alliance, with sixty-seven think tanks and policy organisations in fifty-three countries involved in research, policy, development, education and promotion of property rights in various countries.
"Wherever there has been a rights to property, those countries have shown to have better GDP, a stronger Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow and more income," said senior economic journalist Prateek Pradhan. "Property Rights and Intellectual Property Rights need to be secured in Nepal too for the economic growth."
Stating that majority of the people are unaware of Property rights in Nepal, he said that personal property, roughly speaking, is a private property that is moveable, as opposed to real property or real estate. In the common law systems personal property may also be called chattels or personality.
In the civil law systems personal property is often called movable property or movables - any property that can be moved from one location to another. This term is in distinction with immovable property or immovable, such as land and buildings. Under intellectual property law, owners are granted certain exclusive rights to a variety of intangible assets, such as musical, literary, and artistic works; discoveries and inventions; and words,phrases, symbols, and designs.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Asia Pacific record growth in tourist arrivals

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) released preliminary figures for international visitor arrivals into Asia and the Pacific for January 2011, showing a seven per cent year-on-year expansion.
South Asia set the pace with the strongest arrivals growth from amongst the four sub-regions covered for January 2011, with a gain of 14 per cent. Sri Lanka ( 46 per cent), Nepal (26 per cent), the Maldives (18 per cent) and India (10 per cent) each set new records for the month (year-on-year). The ICC Cricket World Cup 2011, which started in mid-February in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka, is expected to help maintain the current growth momentum for this sub-region up to and including the final on April 02.
The destinations of Southeast Asia also reported a strong gain of ten per cent for the month, boosted by double-digit growth in international arrivals.
Growth in visitor arrivals to Malaysia remained sluggish with only a one per cent increase due largely to a small decline in arrivals from Southeast Asia, a sub-region that contributes more than 70 per cent of total visitor arrivals to Malaysia.
According to the report, Northeast Asia registered a comparatively slower growth of five and a half per cent, although it must be remembered that, because of the enormous volume base, this still equated to more than 940,000 additional arrivals for the month. Stronger arrivals growth was reported by Hong Kong SAR (22 per cent), Chinese Taipei (16 per cent) and Japan (12 per cent) and this offset subdued growth to China (plus one per cent), Macau SAR (plus one per cent) and Korea (ROK) (plus three per cent). No data is available as yet for Mongolia.
International arrivals to the Pacific recorded a steady growth of four per cent for January 2011, but this remained uneven across the destinations. Australia and New Zealand reported foreign inbound growth of five per cent and four per cent respectively, while the Marshall Islands (12 per cent), New Caledonia (16 per cent) and Palau (35 per cent) each saw relatively robust results. Samoa (minus two per cent) and Vanuatu (24 per cent) on the other hand recorded contractions in arrivals for the month.
Kris Lim, director, Strategic Intelligence Centre, PATA said, “The year 2011 started strongly for the travel and tourism industry in Asia and the Pacific, maintaining the arrivals growth momentum seen throughout 2010.
South Asia and Southeast Asia continued to deliver the stronger results while Northeast Asia and the Pacific posted comparatively slower growth. This early positive momentum however, is obviously expected to be negatively affected by the devastating earthquake and resultant tsunami that struck Japan on March 18.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Economic growth stalls below four per cent

Poor industrial performance has pulled the economic growth below four per cent against the government projection of 4.5 per cent.
According to the preliminary report of the Central Statistics Bureau (CBS), the growth is projected to be around 3.9 per cent. "The low manufacturing growth, slowdown in the construction sector due to tight liquidity situation and higher interest rates; and regular power outage stalled the industrial growth pulling the obverall growth," said former member of National Planning Commission (NPC) Dr Puskar Bajracharya.
The industrial growth stands around 1.7 per cent, according to the preliminary forecast -- due to plunge in the key manufacturing items. The Manufacturing Price Index has recorded a growth of a mere 1.23 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of this fiscal year.
However, the agriculture growth recorded a good four per cent and service sector growth that stood around 5.2, according to the preliminary report, boosted the overall growth to nearly four per cent, though, it is not encouraging, he added.
According to the preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, the summer crop production has increased by 11 per cent and 11.5 per cent for paddy and maize, respectively compared to last year, while millet production has increased by one per cent giving relief to the agriculture growth.
The agriculture, that used to have around 40 per cent contribution in the gross domestic production (GDP), however, at present contributes to almost a quarter to the GDP that was projected to grow by 5.5 per cent in the Three Year Interim Plan.
"However, the delayed budget that slowed down the government spending, trade and consumption, coupled with the private sector economic activities hit the economy hard," he said, adding that there is also not any encouraging signal from the political quarters creating policy dilemma.
The economy grew by 3.53 per cent in the last fiscal year and by 3.95 per cent a fiscal year ago in 2008-09. In the last one decade, only in the fiscal year 2007-08, the country had witnessed a growth of 5.80 per cent.

Capital flows surge, volatility increases

After shrinking sharply in 2008, net capital inflows into developing East Asia surged to a record in 2010. Inflows were highly concentrated in China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, according to the World Bank's East Asian and Pacific Economic Update-2011 published today.
Globally, nine countries received 95 per cent of the portfolio equity, 50 per cent of the portfolio debt and 74 per cent of the short-term debt flows to all developing countries, it said, adding that East Asia’s experience with capital flows during and after the global economic crisis contrasts with the period after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis when the crash was more severe -- although concentrated in three countries: Indonesia, Thailand and Korea -- and the revival slower.
Inflows of foreign direct investment and bank flows have also recovered. FDI inflows to East Asia held up well during the crisis, declining in 2009 only to 2007 levels before recovering in 2010. Cross-border credits from foreign banks have also returned, in particular to China and the middle-income countries. Foreign banks, which pulled back from the region at the onset of the global financial crisis and are still retrenching globally, have steadily rebuilt their assets in the region.
Outward investment by East Asian residents has also strengthened substantially. China, Malaysia, and Thailand have become significant sources of FDI in foreign markets. China ranked fifth among the world’s top FDI investors in 2008, with FDI outflows of $44 billion in 2009 and $20 billion in the first half of 2010 (compared with $75 billion by Japan, which ranks third globally.)
Malaysia and Thailand each invested $4 billion a year abroad. As a result of sustained outward flows, net capital inflows into emerging East Asia were less than half of gross inflows at about two per cent of regional GDP in 2009.
Net capital inflows are still dwarfed by current account surpluses across East Asia. The current account surplus accounts for the bulk of foreign currency liquidity into China. In the region’s other middle-income countries,capital account deficits -- including errors and omissions flows -- in 2005-09 turned into a surplus in 2010. Portfolio flows into the region’s equities and bonds have been particularly volatile recently. In Indonesia, foreign investors purchased $2.2 billion worth of equities and $9.6 billion of government bonds in 2010, but sold $0.7 billion of the former and almost a $1 billion of the latter in January alone. In the Philippines, the range in net monthly foreign purchases of securities widened considerably. Both the largest monthly purchase and sale have more than doubled from a year earlier in 2010.
The pattern of larger and more volatile flows is also evident in Korea where purchases of government bonds by non-residents fell from $53 billion in April 2008 to $28 billion in January 2009 before rebounding to $65 billion at present.
Portfolio inflows have buoyed the region’s asset markets, but increased recent volatility is a useful reminder how quickly such inflows can reverse. As a result of large non-resident purchases of East Asian equities through most of 2010, the regional stock market index has outperformed the global index by 1.5 times and is currently at a level twice as high as its lowest point during the global financial crisis, it said.
Similarly, the report revealed that stock market capitalisation for emerging East Asia also doubled to 110 per cent of GDP in 2010 from 2003. As corporate fundamentals improved and as corporate and government issuers have taken advantage of the historically low yields to ramp up bond debt issuance, East Asia’s bond markets have responded with a bond return index that is now three times higher than its level at the beginning of 2000 and a regional return index that is one and half times the global index.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Key foreign currency earner export items lose sheen

The key foreign currency earner export items have lost their sheen in last five years.
The weightage of garments, woolen carpet, textile -- the key export items -- have plunged by almost half in the Manufaturing Price Index (MPI) in this fiscal year comapared to the fiscal year 2007-08.
The weightage of garments -- one of the key export items -- has dropped by almost seven times to 1.17 per cent in the current fiscal year from 7.14 per cent in the 2007-08, whereas the weightage of woolen carpet -- another key foreign currency earner -- has dropped by half to 2.91 per cent in the current fiscal year from 4.32 per cent in the 2007-08, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
"Similarly, the weightage of other textile has dropped to 4.17 per cent in the current fiscal year from 6.59 per cent in the 2007-08, whereas pashmina -- yet another key export items -- could not make it to the Index due to its meagre weightage in the Index this time compared to 2007-08, when it had 1.18 per cent weightage in the index.
However, the items of domestic consumption have more weightage in the latest Manufacturing Price Index.
Due to plunge in the key manufacturing items, the Manufacturing Price Index has recorded a growth of a mere 1.23 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of this fiscal year. In the fiscal year 2007-08, the MPI had recorded a growth of 10.76 per cent over a fiscal year ago.
Entrepreneurs blame the higher cost of production for the drop in the manufacturing. "Increasing cost of production due to frequent labour troubles, power-outage and unfavourable security situation in the country has brought the key exports manufacturing down," said president of Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) Kush Kumar Joshi.
"Our products have been loosing competitive edge over other countries' products," he said, adding that the labour and energy could have been our advantages, had the government acted on time to boost the manufacturing and investment climate.
The Manufacturing Price Index has this year listed 44 items based on 2006-07 manufacturing census from earlier 34 items -- that was based on 2001-02 manufacturing census -- to make it more inclusive, said director of National Accounts Division at the CBS Suman Raj Aryal.
"The addition of new commodities is also due to diversification of industry lately," he said, adding that some new industries have made it to the list and the old ones are on the way out as their weightage have started shrinking.
The new industry like furniture has been added, though it has a meagre 0.56 per cent weightage in the Index.

Entrepreneurs against proposed amendment on BAFIA

After the bankers now its entrepreneurs, who are against the proposed amendment to the Banks and Financial Institutions Act (BAFIA).
The proposed amendment of BAFIA is a regressive step as it has tried to back track liberal economic policy adopted by the country some two decades ago, said Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) and Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) today.
It will discourage private sector investment as it has undermined the role of private sector, the entrepreneurs said, adding that no new investment will come, if such proposal is passed.
"The overall economy will suffer due to such Act," they opined.
The CA members have suggested amendments after discussions in Parliamentary sub committee but it seem to be guided through their political affiliation rather than economic sense.