Asia expected to bounce back in 2020 with positive trade growth

Asia-Pacific economies may see positive trade growth in 2020 but are still facing downside risks from the adverse impacts of the United States-China trade tensions, two new trade briefs by the United Nations (UN) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) released today revealed.
Trade in the Asia-Pacific region contracted during 2019. For the first time since the 2009 global economic crisis, the value and volume of trade in the region is declining. Total export volume fell by 2.5 per cent, while import volume decreased by 3.5 per cent. Oil exporting economies such as Islamic Republic of Iran and Indonesia as well as Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, China registered some of the largest declines in export volume.
Merchandise trade in the region also faced strong headwinds in 2018-2019 caused by the worldwide economic growth slowdown and heightened trade tensions. These have had an adverse effect on trade, particularly in the case of economies closely integrated with China through Global Value Chains (GVCs). Integration of smaller traders into the global and regional economy through GVCs is becoming more difficult. New import barriers increase the cost of production and reduce the competitiveness of companies participating in regional production networks.
The ESCAP earlier estimated the tariff war-related toll on gross domestic product (GDP) could reach as much as $400 billion worldwide and $117 billion in the Asia-Pacific region. These projections are materialising and could increase unless current efforts to reduce trade tensions are successful.
“For the Asia-Pacific region, the challenge is to increase trade and deepen economic integration to support sustainable development,” UN under-secretary-general and executive secretary of ESCAP Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana said, adding that looking ahead to 2020, the agreement reached between China and the US is welcome and should reduce policy uncertainty.  She further underscored the importance of the multilateral trading system to underpin future trade growth.
The new guarantees provided by the implementation of the Phase-I deal reached between China and the US might boost investor and consumer confidence enough for trade in the region to grow by about 1.5 per cent in 2020. This growth would be felt more in developing economies, which could see a 1.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent growth in exports and imports respectively in 2020. However, country-level forecasts vary widely and uncertainties are high.
In trade in commercial services, the region again outperformed the rest of the world in 2019. Relatively slower growth is expected in 2020, with transport services, other business services and goods-related services expected to be most affected sectors. The mid to long-term prospects for trade in services – in particular ICT and business services – remain bright, supported by technological advances.
Commercial services trade in Asia and the Pacific continue to be dominated by a relatively small number of economies, namely China, Japan, India, Singapore, Republic of Korea and Hong Kong, China – accounting for over 70 per cent of total commercial services trade in the region. Increasing business opportunities associated with digital technologies may lead to a further concentration of trade opportunities in those economies.
The ESCAP trade briefs serve as a complement to the Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Report 2019. They provide in-depth analysis of performance and trends in 2018-2019, and the outlook for 2020 at regional and country levels, with a special emphasis on the impact of escalating trade tensions within and outside the region.

Asia-Pacific countries adopt declaration to advance gender equality and women’s empowerment

Ministers and high-level officials from 45 countries in the Asia-Pacific region have committed to intensifying priority actions towards realising women’s rights and fundamental freedoms for an equal future.
The authorities from the countries in the Asia-Pacific region made the announcement in Bangkok after adopting the ‘Asia-Pacific Declaration on Advancing Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment: Beijing+25 Review’ in Bangkok today, according to a press note issued by UNESCAP.
The declaration was issued after intense negotiations at a three-day Ministerial Conference, organised by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the UN Women Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific this week.
The 25th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action is an opportunity for us to take stock of our progress and accelerate efforts, said United Nations under-secretary-general and executive secretary of ESCAP Armida Alisjahbana. “I am delighted member states from across Asia-Pacific have seized it and agreed to an ambitious forward-looking Declaration which strengthens the region’s commitment to action on gender equality and women’s empowerment.”
“The significance of this region being able to adopt this Declaration today, which articulates clear and strategic actions to be taken to address the gender agenda, cannot be overstated,” highlighted the United Nations assistant-secretary-general and deputy executive director of UN Women Anita Bhatia.
While Asia and the Pacific have made remarkable advancements so far, the Declaration notes several emerging megatrends slowing the progress of gender equality and women’s empowerment in the region, such as climate change, intensifying disaster risks, growing digital divide, rapid urbanization, rising inequalities within and between countries, and increasing acts of violence and extremism against women and girls.
The declaration has recognised women as key contributors and vital agents in combating poverty and inequalities and calls upon governments to ensure inclusive social protection systems, public services, and infrastructure.
With its adoption, countries also committed to ensuring women’s economic empowerment and the integration of women into the formal economy. Governments agreed to take appropriate measures and extend legal and social protections to ensure that all women and girls have equal opportunities for education, decent work, favourable conditions of work and financial inclusion. 
Countries further committed to work together with key stakeholders to transform negative gender norms, discriminatory social attitudes and to eliminate structurally unequal power relations that persist between women and men.
They additionally highlighted the need to strengthen gender-responsive national statistical systems and data collection for an enhanced understanding of gender gaps in the region. Governments also called upon ESCAP to continue serving as a regional and sub-regional platform to promote greater dialogue and cooperation among countries.
The declaration mandates ESCAP, in collaboration with other UN agencies, to support relevant national institutions in monitoring and implementing the global Beijing Platform for Action commitments.
The declaration will serve as the regional input to the 64th session of the Commission on the Status of Women on the global review of the implementation of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action in New York next March.
From Nepal, secretary of Ministry of Women, Children and Senior Citizens (MoWCSC) Chandra Kumar Ghimire and joint-secretary Rudra Devi Sharma participated in the conference.

Economic benefits of regional climate action highlighted

The opening of the high-level segment of Asia-Pacific Climate Week took place in Bangkok on Wednesday, with speakers warning of the dire consequences of low levels of ambition to tackle climate change for the region and pointing to the compelling economic arguments for more climate action.
Asia-Pacific Climate Week is designed to boost regional climate action and to provide crucial inputs to the Climate Action Summit convened by the UN Secretary-General on September 23 in New York and the UN Climate Change Conference in Chile in December. It is being attended by governments and representatives of all areas of society.
At the opening Thai minister of Natural Resources and Environment Varawut Silpa-archa said that his country had ‘prioritised climate action among its top national agendas’ and requested all stakeholders in the region to show leadership. “Climate change is here in the Asia-Pacific region, and it shows no signs of slowing down,” he said, adding, “Let’s start our actions and send a message of solidarity from the Asia-Pacific region to the global community that saving our children and grandchildren from the consequences of climate change is possible.
Likewise, executive secretary of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) Ibu Armida Alisjahbana called on countries in the region to decisively accelerate the transition to low carbon. She asked nations to stop building coal power plants by 2020, reiterating a key message by UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
According to the climate science and policy institute Climate Analytics, plans for major new coal deployment in South and Southeast Asia alone could put the key objectives of the Paris Climate Change Agreement out of reach.
UNESCAP chief Alisjahbana underscored that the economic argument to shift to sustainable economies is compelling. For example, just a one per cent improvement in resource efficiency of material resources and energy combined could deliver the region up to $275 billion in savings.
And according to Alisjahbana, achieving ecosystem conservation related targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) could result in a gain of $3.3 trillion worth of ecosystem services per year for the region by 2050.
The deputy executive secretary of UN Climate Change Ovais Sarmad, warned that current levels of ambition to tackle climate change are globally insufficient, and that nothing less than a full transformation of the global economy toward low carbon would enable the world to stave off the worst impacts of climate change. "It is clear we must urgently boost climate action,” he said, adding that current Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by nations under the Paris Agreement put us on pace for a 3 degrees Celsius rise, and possibly more," Ovais Sarmad said.
Countries are currently designing climate action plans under the Paris Agreement, which need to be communicated by the end of 2020. Countries and many stakeholders have been asked to come forward with plans for more ambitious climate action at the UN Climate Summit in September. In this regard, Ovais Sarmad sounded an encouraging note:
“We still have time – although not much time – to turn things around,” Ovais Sarmad said, “Never have we been better placed to do so. We have a global framework through the Paris Agreement. We have reinforced that Agreement with a common set of guidelines. And we have the willingness and stated participation of governments and businesses throughout the world.”
Other speakers at the high-level opening included UN special envoy for the Ocean Peter Thomson, Polish COP24 Presidency High-Level Climate Champion Tomasz Chruszczow, and the director general for the Melanesian Spearhead Group ambassador Amena Yauvoli.
Asia-Pacific youth were represented by Thai youth activist Punyapha Visavakornvisisd.
Asia-Pacific Climate Week is the third in a series of Regional Climate Weeks this year, the first two having taken place in Ghana in March, and Brazil in August. All the unavoidable emissions from Asia-Pacific Climate Week will be offset.