Under the newly updated forecasts from the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), the most likely scenario for international visitor arrivals into and across Asia Pacific in 2020 is that visitor numbers are likely to reduce by 32 per cent year-on-year, also due to reduction of 31 per cent arrivals in South Asia.
Taking into account the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the volume of arrivals is now expected to reduce to fewer than 500 million this year. That effectively takes visitor volume back to levels last seen in 2012. At this stage, growth is expected to resume in 2021, returning to forecast levels by 2023, the association forecasts. “Much of course, depends on how quickly and completely the Covid-19 pandemic is contained and controlled.”
A more optimistic scenario suggests arrivals still falling in 2020 but by 16 per cent year-on-year while a pessimistic narrative predicts a reduction of approximately 44 per cent, it adds.
The impacts are expected to be most severe in Asia, especially Northeast Asia, which is now predicted to lose almost 51 per cent of its visitor volume between 2019 and 2020 – most likely scenario – followed by South Asia with a reduction of 31 per cent, and then Southeast Asia with a 22 per cent drop in visitor arrivals. West Asia is projected to lose almost six percent in visitor arrivals, followed by the Pacific with a projected contraction of 18 per cent, and the Americas with a loss of a little under 12 per cent.
Recovery rates relative to 2019 are expected to occur in most destination regions, sub-regions in 2020, however, Northeast Asia is likely to take a little longer and exceed the 2019 volume of arrivals in 2022. The same is essentially true for visitor receipts as well as they are expected to drop by 27 per cent between 2019 and 2020 under the most likely scenario, reducing to $594 billion, significantly below the original 2020 forecast of $811 billion, the association press note reads, adding that Asia is expected to lose more than $170 billion (-36 per cent), with Northeast Asia predicted to lose more than $123 billion (-48 per cent) under this most likely scenario, followed by South Asia with a $13.3 billion loss (-33 per cent) and Southeast Asia with a $34.6 billion shortfall (-20 per cent). “The Americas is projected to lose more than $35 billion (-13 per cent) and the Pacific $18 billion (-18 per cent).”
The recovery at the annual level is expected to return more quickly across most regions, sub-regions, with perhaps the Pacific taking a little longer to return to 2019 levels.
“This is first and foremost an unfolding human tragedy, with a dire loss of life and for millions more, a loss of income while businesses are closed, and many remain in self-quarantine or follow social distancing guidelines,” PATA chief executive officer Dr Mario Hardy said, adding that they can only hope that this pandemic is brought under absolute control quickly and effectively, enabling the global travel and tourism industry to get back on its feet, re-employ the millions of people, who lost their positions and create even more employment opportunities both directly and for the upstream and downstream sectors that rely on it. “While there are obvious reductions in arrivals, there still remains a significant volume of visitors expected into Asia Pacific through 2020, with just under half-a-billion such travellers still generating almost $600 billion, with each visitor still requiring and expecting the attention and service that this region has become famous for delivering.”
“Nevertheless, perceptions are difficult to change so recovery might take longer in the minds of many potential travelers,” he said, adding that it however gives them time to reconsider the position they had created up to 2019, if numbers return only slowly, the obvious imperative will be to offer travellers such incentives that they remain in the destination longer and see more of what it has to offer. “The metric should therefore shift from the numbers of arrivals, to time spent in any one destination and the dispersion across it.”
Taking into account the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the volume of arrivals is now expected to reduce to fewer than 500 million this year. That effectively takes visitor volume back to levels last seen in 2012. At this stage, growth is expected to resume in 2021, returning to forecast levels by 2023, the association forecasts. “Much of course, depends on how quickly and completely the Covid-19 pandemic is contained and controlled.”
A more optimistic scenario suggests arrivals still falling in 2020 but by 16 per cent year-on-year while a pessimistic narrative predicts a reduction of approximately 44 per cent, it adds.
The impacts are expected to be most severe in Asia, especially Northeast Asia, which is now predicted to lose almost 51 per cent of its visitor volume between 2019 and 2020 – most likely scenario – followed by South Asia with a reduction of 31 per cent, and then Southeast Asia with a 22 per cent drop in visitor arrivals. West Asia is projected to lose almost six percent in visitor arrivals, followed by the Pacific with a projected contraction of 18 per cent, and the Americas with a loss of a little under 12 per cent.
Recovery rates relative to 2019 are expected to occur in most destination regions, sub-regions in 2020, however, Northeast Asia is likely to take a little longer and exceed the 2019 volume of arrivals in 2022. The same is essentially true for visitor receipts as well as they are expected to drop by 27 per cent between 2019 and 2020 under the most likely scenario, reducing to $594 billion, significantly below the original 2020 forecast of $811 billion, the association press note reads, adding that Asia is expected to lose more than $170 billion (-36 per cent), with Northeast Asia predicted to lose more than $123 billion (-48 per cent) under this most likely scenario, followed by South Asia with a $13.3 billion loss (-33 per cent) and Southeast Asia with a $34.6 billion shortfall (-20 per cent). “The Americas is projected to lose more than $35 billion (-13 per cent) and the Pacific $18 billion (-18 per cent).”
The recovery at the annual level is expected to return more quickly across most regions, sub-regions, with perhaps the Pacific taking a little longer to return to 2019 levels.
“This is first and foremost an unfolding human tragedy, with a dire loss of life and for millions more, a loss of income while businesses are closed, and many remain in self-quarantine or follow social distancing guidelines,” PATA chief executive officer Dr Mario Hardy said, adding that they can only hope that this pandemic is brought under absolute control quickly and effectively, enabling the global travel and tourism industry to get back on its feet, re-employ the millions of people, who lost their positions and create even more employment opportunities both directly and for the upstream and downstream sectors that rely on it. “While there are obvious reductions in arrivals, there still remains a significant volume of visitors expected into Asia Pacific through 2020, with just under half-a-billion such travellers still generating almost $600 billion, with each visitor still requiring and expecting the attention and service that this region has become famous for delivering.”
“Nevertheless, perceptions are difficult to change so recovery might take longer in the minds of many potential travelers,” he said, adding that it however gives them time to reconsider the position they had created up to 2019, if numbers return only slowly, the obvious imperative will be to offer travellers such incentives that they remain in the destination longer and see more of what it has to offer. “The metric should therefore shift from the numbers of arrivals, to time spent in any one destination and the dispersion across it.”
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