The total paddy production is estimated to be 5,431,549 Metric Tonne (MT) this year – representing some 1.7 per cent decrease compared last year, when the paddy production posted some 5.6 million MT. “The total area of paddy planted also decreased slightly compared to the last year, as it has been estimated to be 1,480,288 hectares this year against 1,491,744 hectares in 2018,” according to a publication that is a joint product of the Ministry of Agricultural and Livestock Development, the World Food Programme, and the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) as part of the Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP).
“However, the forecasted land productivity is estimated to be 3.67 MT per hectare. The yield estimates have a prediction uncertainty of ±7.5 per cent,” it reads. “Although the onset of the monsoon was delayed – late mid-June – average rainfall across the country before the onset of the monsoon was close to normal.”
Heavy rainfall across the country’s Terai lowlands on July 11-12 led to extensive flooding, which damaged large areas of cultivation thereby slightly decreasing paddy production,” it reads.
According to the real time stations data provided by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, pre-monsoon rainfall exceeded 30-years-of-normal in the eastern and central parts of Nepal, while it was lower than average in the Western part of the country. “Eastern Terai received above average rainfall during the monsoon period that was mainly concentrated during the mid-July leading to excessive flooding,” it reads, adding that Central and Eastern regions received rainfall lower below their 30-year averages during the monsoon months.
Under the research theme on Climate Risk Management, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) developed a crop yield-forecasting tool customised for the South Asia Region known as the CCAFS Regional Agriculture Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT). CCAFS is a strategic partnership of CGIAR and Future Earth, led by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), which conducts research to identify and address the most important interactions, synergies and tradeoffs between climate change, agriculture and food security.
CRAFT uses historical databases of weather and crop yields and current weather to estimate yields of various crops. The yield forecasting depends on data from various sources such as meteorological data – rainfall, temperature, humidity, bright sunshine hours, wind speed, wet spell etc – agro-meteorological data (phenology), soil data (water holding capacity), remote sensing data and agricultural statistics.
CRAFT simulates plant-weather-soil interactions in quantitative terms and predicts the crop yield over a given area, prior to harvest, provided no extreme (statistically infrequent) conditions occur. These models are based on a ‘common sense’ assumption that weather conditions are the main factor behind the inter-annual (short term) variations for the de-trended crop yield series.
“However, the forecasted land productivity is estimated to be 3.67 MT per hectare. The yield estimates have a prediction uncertainty of ±7.5 per cent,” it reads. “Although the onset of the monsoon was delayed – late mid-June – average rainfall across the country before the onset of the monsoon was close to normal.”
Heavy rainfall across the country’s Terai lowlands on July 11-12 led to extensive flooding, which damaged large areas of cultivation thereby slightly decreasing paddy production,” it reads.
According to the real time stations data provided by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, pre-monsoon rainfall exceeded 30-years-of-normal in the eastern and central parts of Nepal, while it was lower than average in the Western part of the country. “Eastern Terai received above average rainfall during the monsoon period that was mainly concentrated during the mid-July leading to excessive flooding,” it reads, adding that Central and Eastern regions received rainfall lower below their 30-year averages during the monsoon months.
Under the research theme on Climate Risk Management, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) developed a crop yield-forecasting tool customised for the South Asia Region known as the CCAFS Regional Agriculture Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT). CCAFS is a strategic partnership of CGIAR and Future Earth, led by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), which conducts research to identify and address the most important interactions, synergies and tradeoffs between climate change, agriculture and food security.
CRAFT uses historical databases of weather and crop yields and current weather to estimate yields of various crops. The yield forecasting depends on data from various sources such as meteorological data – rainfall, temperature, humidity, bright sunshine hours, wind speed, wet spell etc – agro-meteorological data (phenology), soil data (water holding capacity), remote sensing data and agricultural statistics.
CRAFT simulates plant-weather-soil interactions in quantitative terms and predicts the crop yield over a given area, prior to harvest, provided no extreme (statistically infrequent) conditions occur. These models are based on a ‘common sense’ assumption that weather conditions are the main factor behind the inter-annual (short term) variations for the de-trended crop yield series.
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