Total mobile connections will stand at 6.8 billion including
machine-to-machine (M2M) communications, or 5.9 billion excluding M2M and
inactive sim cards by fourth quarter, according to a study by GSMA, an
association of mobile operators and related companies devoted to supporting the
standardising, deployment and promotion of the GSM mobile telephone system.
With consumers using an average of 1.85 sim cards each, the total number of mobile subscribers globally will stand at 3.2 billion by the fourth quarter, growing to four billion within 2017. Global penetration based on total connections is set to exceed 100 per cent in 2013, with mobile subscriber penetration standing at only 45 per cent by the end of this year, it said.
It added that the future mobile subscriber growth will be driven by demand among currently 'unconnected' populations in developing countries, particularly those in rural areas, which the research estimates to be 1.8 billion people throughout the next five years.
By 2017, subscriber penetration in developed countries is set to have passed 80 per cent and growth in these markets is expected to slow. In contrast, subscriber penetration across developing economies is forecast to increase from 39 per cent this year to 47 per cent in 2017, and will be the largest factor spurring the global growth of mobile over 2017.
Europe has the highest mobile penetration in the world, with countries like Denmark, Finland, Germany and the UK averaging close to 90 per cent subscriber penetration.
Africa currently has the lowest penetration, with only one out of three people in the region subscribing to mobile services this year, a figure that is expected to increase to 40 per cent in 2017.
In Asia, subscriber penetration stands 40 per cent, and is expected to grow to 49 per cent by 2017. In China, subscriber penetration will grow from 43 per cent to 52 per cent over 2017.
Approximately a third of the world's population of seven billion are unlikely to be able to subscribe to mobile services for a variety of reasons, resulting in an 'addressable' mobile subscriber base of around five billion.
In India, according to figures from the World Bank and Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, approximately half a billion people in the country's rural areas are unconnected to mobile networks, with rural mobile penetration of 39 per cent.
With consumers using an average of 1.85 sim cards each, the total number of mobile subscribers globally will stand at 3.2 billion by the fourth quarter, growing to four billion within 2017. Global penetration based on total connections is set to exceed 100 per cent in 2013, with mobile subscriber penetration standing at only 45 per cent by the end of this year, it said.
It added that the future mobile subscriber growth will be driven by demand among currently 'unconnected' populations in developing countries, particularly those in rural areas, which the research estimates to be 1.8 billion people throughout the next five years.
By 2017, subscriber penetration in developed countries is set to have passed 80 per cent and growth in these markets is expected to slow. In contrast, subscriber penetration across developing economies is forecast to increase from 39 per cent this year to 47 per cent in 2017, and will be the largest factor spurring the global growth of mobile over 2017.
Europe has the highest mobile penetration in the world, with countries like Denmark, Finland, Germany and the UK averaging close to 90 per cent subscriber penetration.
Africa currently has the lowest penetration, with only one out of three people in the region subscribing to mobile services this year, a figure that is expected to increase to 40 per cent in 2017.
In Asia, subscriber penetration stands 40 per cent, and is expected to grow to 49 per cent by 2017. In China, subscriber penetration will grow from 43 per cent to 52 per cent over 2017.
Approximately a third of the world's population of seven billion are unlikely to be able to subscribe to mobile services for a variety of reasons, resulting in an 'addressable' mobile subscriber base of around five billion.
In India, according to figures from the World Bank and Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, approximately half a billion people in the country's rural areas are unconnected to mobile networks, with rural mobile penetration of 39 per cent.
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