If developed countries act now, a 'climate-smart' world is feasible, and the costs for getting there will be high but still manageable, says a new World Bank report released today.
High-income countries also need to act quickly to reduce their carbon footprints and boost development of alternative energy sources to help tackle the problem of climate change. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, released in advance of the December meetings on climate change in Copenhagen, states that advanced countries, which produced most of the greenhouse gas emissions of the past, must act to shape our climate future. Developing countries can shift to lower-carbon paths while promoting development and reducing poverty, but this depends on financial and technical assistance from high-income countries. A key way to do this is by ramping up funding for mitigation in developing countries, where most future growth in emissions will occur.
"The countries of the world must act now, act together and act differently on climate change," said World Bank president Robert B Zoellick. "Developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate change -- a crisis that is not of their making and for which they are the least prepared. For that reason, an equitable deal in Copenhagen is vitally important."
Countries need to act now because today's decisions determine both the climate of tomorrow and the choices that shape the future. Countries need to act together because no one nation can take on the interconnected challenges posed by climate change and global cooperation is needed to improve energy efficiencies and develop new technologies.
Developing countries will bear most of the costs of the damage from climate change. Many people in developing countries live in physically exposed locations and economically precarious conditions, and their financial and institutional capacity to adapt is limited, states the report.
Already, policymakers in some developing countries note that an increasing amount of their development budget is being diverted to cope with weather-related emergencies.
Geography coupled with high levels of poverty and population density make countries in the South Asia region particularly vulnerable to climate change. Global warming of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures -- the minimum the world is likely to experience -- could result in permanent reductions in GDP of four to five per cent for South Asia, according to the report.
Agricultural productivity is one of many factors driving the greater vulnerability of developing countries. Extrapolating from past year-to-year variations in climate and agricultural outcomes, yields of major crops in India are projected to decline by 4.5 to nine per cent within the next three decades, even allowing for short- term adaptations. The report states the implications of such climate change for poverty -- and GDP -- could be enormous given projected population growth and high dependence of livelihoods on rain-fed agriculture in the South Asia region.
At the same time, the report notes that 1.6 billion people in the developing world lack access to electricity. Those developing countries-whose average per capita emissions are a fraction of those of high-income countries-need massive expansions in energy, transport, urban systems, and agricultural production. Increasing access to energy and other services using high-carbon technologies will produce more greenhouse gases, hence more climate change.
The World Bank Group's 'Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change' puts emphasis on including mitigation and adaptation initiatives in its lending, while recognising that developing countries need to encourage economic growth and reduce poverty.
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