GDP growth estimation at 3.8 per cent

The government's projection of seven per cent gross domestic growth (GDP) seems to be a pipe-dream, thanks to regular power outage, nationwide protest programmes and labour disputes.
According to the Central Bureau of Static’s (CBS) report, based on the first six months’ data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 3.8 per cent during this current fiscal. The national data bank has estimated the preliminary GDP at basic prices to grow by 3.8 per cent and at producer price to multiply at 4.66 per cent.
As per the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the GDP’s growth is pegged at 3.5 per cent.
The lower projection debunks Finance Minister Dr Baburam Bhattarai’s tall claims. “The GDP growth is estimated to be at seven per cent," he had said while presenting his first budget on September 19.
Similarly, the CBS report has reduced the government's projection of growth in agriculture and non-agriculture sector by half. The agriculture sector will now witness a growth of 2.13 and 4.81 per cent, respectively.
While, the government’s ambitious figures were 4.5 and 8.3 per cent, respectively, as the budget speech bore out. The adverse weather conditions have pulled it down. Agriculture accounts for 32.35 per cent of the GDP.
Electricity, gas and water sectors will see negative growth of 1.06 per cent. Ditto for the manufacturing sector — the largest employer after the agricultural sector. It will be in red by 0.5 per cent.
Incidentally, these sectors were growing by 3.73 and 0.18, per cent, respectively, in the last fiscal year.
But, there is boom amid the doom as well. Transport, communication and storage industries are growing by 7.84 per cent, thanks to the spurt in communication.
Meanwhile, the GDP deflector predicts inflation at 12.15 per cent. The government, however, had factored in only 7.5 per cent. According to the last fiscal year’s revised GDP, it stands at 5.26 per cent.
In 1961-62, the CBS first published the estimated growth. “But only from 1964-65, it started publishing report regularly,” according to Suman Aryal, statiscal officer at the CBS that is planning to publish the report quarterly from next fiscal year.